DavidHeymann 2020S 480p

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this looks like a very mild disease like

a common cold in the majority of people

there are certain people who get

infected and have very serious illness

among them are health workers it's a

very serious infection in them as they

get higher dose than normal people and

at the same time they have no immunity

so in in the general population it's

likely that the dose of virus that you

receive when you are infected is much

less than the dose that a health worker

would receive health workers having more

serious infections so your infection

would be less serious hopefully so that

leaves the elderly and those with

comorbidities to really be the ones that

we have to make sure are taken care of

in hospitals

well the most concerned are people who

are first of all in developing countries

and who don't have access to good

medical care and may not have access at

all to a hospital should an epidemic

occur in their country those people

would be a great risk especially the

elderly elderly in all populations are

at risk but especially those who can't

get to oxygen in industrialized

countries it's the very elderly who have

comorbidities who have diabetes who have

other diseases who are at risk the

general population doesn't appear to be

a great risk

first of all pulmonary disease existing

as a comorbidity is also important in

general the elderly are a greater risk

especially those over 70 because their

immune systems are not as effective as

they might have once been and there are

more susceptible to infections in

addition in some instances in China

there's been a CO infection with

influenza and at the same time there

have been some bacterial super

infections on the pneumonias that are

occurring

Center for Disease Control in Atlanta

keeps track and has updates on a regular

basis on its website also the World

Health Organization in Geneva which is

coordinating many of the activities

going on internationally also has a

website with daily updates it's our

responsibility to get that information

as individuals so we understand and can

make sure that we can contribute in our

own way to prevention of major spread

that's the same problem with all new

infections this is an infection that's

coming to humans who have never been

exposed to this virus before they don't

have any antibody protection and it's

not clear whether their immune system

can handle this virus or not this is a

virus that usually finds itself in bats

or in other animals and all of a sudden

it's in humans and humans just don't

have experience with this virus but

gradually we are beginning to learn a

lot as we did with SARS and you know

there are certainly a larger number of

deaths than there were with SARS but

when you divide that by a denominator of

persons who are infected there are many

many more persons infected than that

where with SARS the case fatality ratio

that is the ratio of deaths to the

numbers of cases in SARS was about 10

percent with the current coronavirus

Koba 19 is 2 percent or probably less so

it's a much less virulent virus but it's

still a virus that causes mortality and

that's what we don't want

entering human populations

it's clearly understood that airports or

any land borders cannot prevent the

disease from entering people in the

incubation period can cross that border

can enter countries and can then infect

others when they become sick so its

borders are not a means of preventing

infections from entering a country by

checking temperatures borders are

important because you can provide to

people arriving from areas that might be

at risk of having had infection

providing them with an understanding

either a printed understanding or a

verbal understanding of what the signs

and symptoms are of this infection and

what they should do if they feel that

they might be infected

vaccines are under development right now

there's a lot of research going on that

research requires first that the vaccine

be developed then that it be studied for

safety and effectiveness in animals who

are challenged with the virus when

they're after they're in vaccinated and

then it was going to human studies the

animal studies have not yet begun but

will soon begin for certain vaccines and

it's thought that by the end of the year

or early next year there may be some

candidate vaccines that can then be

studied for licensing by regulatory

agencies so we're talking about at least

a year until there's vaccine available

that can be used in many populations

that's clear we know how it transmits we

don't know how easily it transmits in

humans in communities or in unenclosed

areas we know and for example they did

in the enclosed area of a cruise ship it

spread very easily we need to better

understand how it will spread once it

gets into more open areas where people

are exposed to people who might be sick

a major problem in the world today is

that we look at outbreaks in developing

countries there's something that we need

to go and stop so when there's an

outbreak of Ebola we think how can we go

and stop this outbreak because we don't

think about how can we help that country

strengthen its capacity so that it can

detect and respond to infections so we

haven't invested enough in helping

countries develop their core capacity in

public health what we've done is

invested in many mechanisms globally

which can provide support to other

countries to go and help stop outbreaks

but we want to see a world where every

country can do its best to stop its own

outbreaks

today there are over seven billion

people and when those people come into

the world they demand more food they

demand a whole series of things and they

live closer together

in fact we're in an urban world where

people live in urban areas and at the

same time we're growing more animals and

those animals are contributing food to

humans as well so what we see is that

that animal human interface is becoming

closer and closer together and and this

intensive agriculture of animals and

this intensive increase in human

populations living together on the same

planet is really a melting pot where

outbreaks can occur and do occur we will

eventually have more and more of these

outbreaks so an emerging infection today

is just a warning of what will happen in

the future we have to make sure that

that technical collaboration in the

world is there to work together to make

sure that we can understand these

outbreaks when they occur and rapidly

provide the information necessary to

control

I can't predict with accuracy so all I

can say is that we must all be prepared

for the worst-case scenario and at the

same time learn how we can protect

ourselves and protect others should we

become a part of that a together

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