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[Applause]

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this looks like a very mild disease like

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a common cold in the majority of people

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there are certain people who get

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infected and have very serious illness

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among them are health workers it's a

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very serious infection in them as they

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get higher dose than normal people and

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at the same time they have no immunity

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so in in the general population it's

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likely that the dose of virus that you

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receive when you are infected is much

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less than the dose that a health worker

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would receive health workers having more

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serious infections so your infection

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would be less serious hopefully so that

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leaves the elderly and those with

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comorbidities to really be the ones that

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we have to make sure are taken care of

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in hospitals

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well the most concerned are people who

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are first of all in developing countries

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and who don't have access to good

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medical care and may not have access at

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all to a hospital should an epidemic

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occur in their country those people

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would be a great risk especially the

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elderly elderly in all populations are

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at risk but especially those who can't

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get to oxygen in industrialized

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countries it's the very elderly who have

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comorbidities who have diabetes who have

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other diseases who are at risk the

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general population doesn't appear to be

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a great risk

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first of all pulmonary disease existing

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as a comorbidity is also important in

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general the elderly are a greater risk

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especially those over 70 because their

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immune systems are not as effective as

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they might have once been and there are

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more susceptible to infections in

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addition in some instances in China

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there's been a CO infection with

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influenza and at the same time there

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have been some bacterial super

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infections on the pneumonias that are

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occurring

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Center for Disease Control in Atlanta

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keeps track and has updates on a regular

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basis on its website also the World

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Health Organization in Geneva which is

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coordinating many of the activities

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going on internationally also has a

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website with daily updates it's our

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responsibility to get that information

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as individuals so we understand and can

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make sure that we can contribute in our

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own way to prevention of major spread

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that's the same problem with all new

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infections this is an infection that's

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coming to humans who have never been

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exposed to this virus before they don't

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have any antibody protection and it's

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not clear whether their immune system

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can handle this virus or not this is a

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virus that usually finds itself in bats

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or in other animals and all of a sudden

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it's in humans and humans just don't

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have experience with this virus but

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gradually we are beginning to learn a

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lot as we did with SARS and you know

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there are certainly a larger number of

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deaths than there were with SARS but

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when you divide that by a denominator of

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persons who are infected there are many

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many more persons infected than that

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where with SARS the case fatality ratio

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that is the ratio of deaths to the

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numbers of cases in SARS was about 10

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percent with the current coronavirus

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Koba 19 is 2 percent or probably less so

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it's a much less virulent virus but it's

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still a virus that causes mortality and

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that's what we don't want

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entering human populations

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it's clearly understood that airports or

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any land borders cannot prevent the

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disease from entering people in the

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incubation period can cross that border

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can enter countries and can then infect

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others when they become sick so its

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borders are not a means of preventing

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infections from entering a country by

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checking temperatures borders are

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important because you can provide to

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people arriving from areas that might be

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at risk of having had infection

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providing them with an understanding

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either a printed understanding or a

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verbal understanding of what the signs

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and symptoms are of this infection and

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what they should do if they feel that

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they might be infected

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vaccines are under development right now

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there's a lot of research going on that

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research requires first that the vaccine

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be developed then that it be studied for

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safety and effectiveness in animals who

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are challenged with the virus when

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they're after they're in vaccinated and

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then it was going to human studies the

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animal studies have not yet begun but

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will soon begin for certain vaccines and

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it's thought that by the end of the year

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or early next year there may be some

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candidate vaccines that can then be

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studied for licensing by regulatory

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agencies so we're talking about at least

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a year until there's vaccine available

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that can be used in many populations

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that's clear we know how it transmits we

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don't know how easily it transmits in

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humans in communities or in unenclosed

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areas we know and for example they did

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in the enclosed area of a cruise ship it

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spread very easily we need to better

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understand how it will spread once it

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gets into more open areas where people

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are exposed to people who might be sick

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a major problem in the world today is

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that we look at outbreaks in developing

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countries there's something that we need

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to go and stop so when there's an

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outbreak of Ebola we think how can we go

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and stop this outbreak because we don't

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think about how can we help that country

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strengthen its capacity so that it can

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detect and respond to infections so we

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haven't invested enough in helping

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countries develop their core capacity in

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public health what we've done is

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invested in many mechanisms globally

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which can provide support to other

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countries to go and help stop outbreaks

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but we want to see a world where every

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country can do its best to stop its own

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outbreaks

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today there are over seven billion

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people and when those people come into

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the world they demand more food they

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demand a whole series of things and they

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live closer together

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in fact we're in an urban world where

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people live in urban areas and at the

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same time we're growing more animals and

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those animals are contributing food to

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humans as well so what we see is that

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that animal human interface is becoming

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closer and closer together and and this

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intensive agriculture of animals and

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this intensive increase in human

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populations living together on the same

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planet is really a melting pot where

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outbreaks can occur and do occur we will

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eventually have more and more of these

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outbreaks so an emerging infection today

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is just a warning of what will happen in

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the future we have to make sure that

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that technical collaboration in the

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world is there to work together to make

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sure that we can understand these

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outbreaks when they occur and rapidly

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provide the information necessary to

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control

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I can't predict with accuracy so all I

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can say is that we must all be prepared

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for the worst-case scenario and at the

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same time learn how we can protect

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ourselves and protect others should we

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become a part of that a together

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[Music]

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you