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this looks like a very mild disease like
a common cold in the majority of people
there are certain people who get
infected and have very serious illness
among them are health workers it's a
very serious infection in them as they
get higher dose than normal people and
at the same time they have no immunity
so in in the general population it's
likely that the dose of virus that you
receive when you are infected is much
less than the dose that a health worker
would receive health workers having more
serious infections so your infection
would be less serious hopefully so that
leaves the elderly and those with
comorbidities to really be the ones that
we have to make sure are taken care of
in hospitals
well the most concerned are people who
are first of all in developing countries
and who don't have access to good
medical care and may not have access at
all to a hospital should an epidemic
occur in their country those people
would be a great risk especially the
elderly elderly in all populations are
at risk but especially those who can't
get to oxygen in industrialized
countries it's the very elderly who have
comorbidities who have diabetes who have
other diseases who are at risk the
general population doesn't appear to be
a great risk
first of all pulmonary disease existing
as a comorbidity is also important in
general the elderly are a greater risk
especially those over 70 because their
immune systems are not as effective as
they might have once been and there are
more susceptible to infections in
addition in some instances in China
there's been a CO infection with
influenza and at the same time there
have been some bacterial super
infections on the pneumonias that are
occurring
Center for Disease Control in Atlanta
keeps track and has updates on a regular
basis on its website also the World
Health Organization in Geneva which is
coordinating many of the activities
going on internationally also has a
website with daily updates it's our
responsibility to get that information
as individuals so we understand and can
make sure that we can contribute in our
own way to prevention of major spread
that's the same problem with all new
infections this is an infection that's
coming to humans who have never been
exposed to this virus before they don't
have any antibody protection and it's
not clear whether their immune system
can handle this virus or not this is a
virus that usually finds itself in bats
or in other animals and all of a sudden
it's in humans and humans just don't
have experience with this virus but
gradually we are beginning to learn a
lot as we did with SARS and you know
there are certainly a larger number of
deaths than there were with SARS but
when you divide that by a denominator of
persons who are infected there are many
many more persons infected than that
where with SARS the case fatality ratio
that is the ratio of deaths to the
numbers of cases in SARS was about 10
percent with the current coronavirus
Koba 19 is 2 percent or probably less so
it's a much less virulent virus but it's
still a virus that causes mortality and
that's what we don't want
entering human populations
it's clearly understood that airports or
any land borders cannot prevent the
disease from entering people in the
incubation period can cross that border
can enter countries and can then infect
others when they become sick so its
borders are not a means of preventing
infections from entering a country by
checking temperatures borders are
important because you can provide to
people arriving from areas that might be
at risk of having had infection
providing them with an understanding
either a printed understanding or a
verbal understanding of what the signs
and symptoms are of this infection and
what they should do if they feel that
they might be infected
vaccines are under development right now
there's a lot of research going on that
research requires first that the vaccine
be developed then that it be studied for
safety and effectiveness in animals who
are challenged with the virus when
they're after they're in vaccinated and
then it was going to human studies the
animal studies have not yet begun but
will soon begin for certain vaccines and
it's thought that by the end of the year
or early next year there may be some
candidate vaccines that can then be
studied for licensing by regulatory
agencies so we're talking about at least
a year until there's vaccine available
that can be used in many populations
that's clear we know how it transmits we
don't know how easily it transmits in
humans in communities or in unenclosed
areas we know and for example they did
in the enclosed area of a cruise ship it
spread very easily we need to better
understand how it will spread once it
gets into more open areas where people
are exposed to people who might be sick
a major problem in the world today is
that we look at outbreaks in developing
countries there's something that we need
to go and stop so when there's an
outbreak of Ebola we think how can we go
and stop this outbreak because we don't
think about how can we help that country
strengthen its capacity so that it can
detect and respond to infections so we
haven't invested enough in helping
countries develop their core capacity in
public health what we've done is
invested in many mechanisms globally
which can provide support to other
countries to go and help stop outbreaks
but we want to see a world where every
country can do its best to stop its own
outbreaks
today there are over seven billion
people and when those people come into
the world they demand more food they
demand a whole series of things and they
live closer together
in fact we're in an urban world where
people live in urban areas and at the
same time we're growing more animals and
those animals are contributing food to
humans as well so what we see is that
that animal human interface is becoming
closer and closer together and and this
intensive agriculture of animals and
this intensive increase in human
populations living together on the same
planet is really a melting pot where
outbreaks can occur and do occur we will
eventually have more and more of these
outbreaks so an emerging infection today
is just a warning of what will happen in
the future we have to make sure that
that technical collaboration in the
world is there to work together to make
sure that we can understand these
outbreaks when they occur and rapidly
provide the information necessary to
control
I can't predict with accuracy so all I
can say is that we must all be prepared
for the worst-case scenario and at the
same time learn how we can protect
ourselves and protect others should we
become a part of that a together
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you