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[Applause]

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this looks like a very mild disease like

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a common cold in the majority of people

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there are certain people who get

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infected and have very serious illness

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among them are health workers it's a

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very serious infection in them as they

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get higher dose than normal people and

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at the same time they have no immunity

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so in in the general population it's

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likely that the dose of virus that you

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receive when you are infected is much

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less than the dose that a health worker

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would receive health workers having more

0:00:55.470,0:01:00.239
serious infections so your infection

0:00:57.570,0:01:01.979
would be less serious hopefully so that

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leaves the elderly and those with

0:01:01.979,0:01:06.780
comorbidities to really be the ones that

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we have to make sure are taken care of

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in hospitals

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well the most concerned are people who

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are first of all in developing countries

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and who don't have access to good

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medical care and may not have access at

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all to a hospital should an epidemic

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occur in their country those people

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would be a great risk especially the

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elderly elderly in all populations are

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at risk but especially those who can't

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get to oxygen in industrialized

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countries it's the very elderly who have

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comorbidities who have diabetes who have

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other diseases who are at risk the

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general population doesn't appear to be

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a great risk

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first of all pulmonary disease existing

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as a comorbidity is also important in

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general the elderly are a greater risk

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especially those over 70 because their

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immune systems are not as effective as

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they might have once been and there are

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more susceptible to infections in

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addition in some instances in China

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there's been a CO infection with

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influenza and at the same time there

0:02:15.320,0:02:18.800
have been some bacterial super

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infections on the pneumonias that are

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occurring

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Center for Disease Control in Atlanta

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keeps track and has updates on a regular

0:02:27.130,0:02:32.260
basis on its website also the World

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Health Organization in Geneva which is

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coordinating many of the activities

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going on internationally also has a

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website with daily updates it's our

0:02:38.290,0:02:43.239
responsibility to get that information

0:02:39.970,0:02:44.860
as individuals so we understand and can

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make sure that we can contribute in our

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own way to prevention of major spread

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that's the same problem with all new

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infections this is an infection that's

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coming to humans who have never been

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exposed to this virus before they don't

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have any antibody protection and it's

0:03:03.420,0:03:07.620
not clear whether their immune system

0:03:05.310,0:03:10.380
can handle this virus or not this is a

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virus that usually finds itself in bats

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or in other animals and all of a sudden

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it's in humans and humans just don't

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have experience with this virus but

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gradually we are beginning to learn a

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lot as we did with SARS and you know

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there are certainly a larger number of

0:03:24.210,0:03:29.340
deaths than there were with SARS but

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when you divide that by a denominator of

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persons who are infected there are many

0:03:31.380,0:03:35.820
many more persons infected than that

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where with SARS the case fatality ratio

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that is the ratio of deaths to the

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numbers of cases in SARS was about 10

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percent with the current coronavirus

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Koba 19 is 2 percent or probably less so

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it's a much less virulent virus but it's

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still a virus that causes mortality and

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that's what we don't want

0:03:54.930,0:03:58.280
entering human populations

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it's clearly understood that airports or

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any land borders cannot prevent the

0:04:05.620,0:04:09.579
disease from entering people in the

0:04:07.750,0:04:12.400
incubation period can cross that border

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can enter countries and can then infect

0:04:12.400,0:04:18.269
others when they become sick so its

0:04:14.950,0:04:20.500
borders are not a means of preventing

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infections from entering a country by

0:04:20.500,0:04:24.850
checking temperatures borders are

0:04:22.900,0:04:27.370
important because you can provide to

0:04:24.850,0:04:29.259
people arriving from areas that might be

0:04:27.370,0:04:31.389
at risk of having had infection

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providing them with an understanding

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either a printed understanding or a

0:04:33.430,0:04:37.599
verbal understanding of what the signs

0:04:35.740,0:04:40.300
and symptoms are of this infection and

0:04:37.599,0:04:43.440
what they should do if they feel that

0:04:40.300,0:04:43.440
they might be infected

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vaccines are under development right now

0:04:46.720,0:04:51.490
there's a lot of research going on that

0:04:48.700,0:04:54.250
research requires first that the vaccine

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be developed then that it be studied for

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safety and effectiveness in animals who

0:04:57.460,0:05:00.670
are challenged with the virus when

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they're after they're in vaccinated and

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then it was going to human studies the

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animal studies have not yet begun but

0:05:05.560,0:05:10.000
will soon begin for certain vaccines and

0:05:07.630,0:05:11.770
it's thought that by the end of the year

0:05:10.000,0:05:14.380
or early next year there may be some

0:05:11.770,0:05:17.410
candidate vaccines that can then be

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studied for licensing by regulatory

0:05:17.410,0:05:22.480
agencies so we're talking about at least

0:05:20.320,0:05:26.550
a year until there's vaccine available

0:05:22.480,0:05:26.550
that can be used in many populations

0:05:28.990,0:05:33.310
that's clear we know how it transmits we

0:05:31.180,0:05:37.229
don't know how easily it transmits in

0:05:33.310,0:05:40.330
humans in communities or in unenclosed

0:05:37.229,0:05:42.130
areas we know and for example they did

0:05:40.330,0:05:44.530
in the enclosed area of a cruise ship it

0:05:42.130,0:05:46.660
spread very easily we need to better

0:05:44.530,0:05:49.389
understand how it will spread once it

0:05:46.660,0:05:54.090
gets into more open areas where people

0:05:49.389,0:05:54.090
are exposed to people who might be sick

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a major problem in the world today is

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that we look at outbreaks in developing

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countries there's something that we need

0:06:02.940,0:06:07.560
to go and stop so when there's an

0:06:05.520,0:06:09.900
outbreak of Ebola we think how can we go

0:06:07.560,0:06:12.710
and stop this outbreak because we don't

0:06:09.900,0:06:15.750
think about how can we help that country

0:06:12.710,0:06:19.050
strengthen its capacity so that it can

0:06:15.750,0:06:21.930
detect and respond to infections so we

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haven't invested enough in helping

0:06:21.930,0:06:26.100
countries develop their core capacity in

0:06:24.330,0:06:28.770
public health what we've done is

0:06:26.100,0:06:31.650
invested in many mechanisms globally

0:06:28.770,0:06:33.840
which can provide support to other

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countries to go and help stop outbreaks

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but we want to see a world where every

0:06:35.910,0:06:40.610
country can do its best to stop its own

0:06:38.100,0:06:40.610
outbreaks

0:06:41.690,0:06:45.440
today there are over seven billion

0:06:43.310,0:06:47.000
people and when those people come into

0:06:45.440,0:06:48.920
the world they demand more food they

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demand a whole series of things and they

0:06:48.920,0:06:51.950
live closer together

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in fact we're in an urban world where

0:06:51.950,0:06:56.960
people live in urban areas and at the

0:06:54.590,0:06:59.810
same time we're growing more animals and

0:06:56.960,0:07:02.960
those animals are contributing food to

0:06:59.810,0:07:05.300
humans as well so what we see is that

0:07:02.960,0:07:08.900
that animal human interface is becoming

0:07:05.300,0:07:11.480
closer and closer together and and this

0:07:08.900,0:07:13.820
intensive agriculture of animals and

0:07:11.480,0:07:15.620
this intensive increase in human

0:07:13.820,0:07:19.190
populations living together on the same

0:07:15.620,0:07:22.130
planet is really a melting pot where

0:07:19.190,0:07:23.960
outbreaks can occur and do occur we will

0:07:22.130,0:07:27.860
eventually have more and more of these

0:07:23.960,0:07:29.690
outbreaks so an emerging infection today

0:07:27.860,0:07:31.580
is just a warning of what will happen in

0:07:29.690,0:07:33.890
the future we have to make sure that

0:07:31.580,0:07:37.250
that technical collaboration in the

0:07:33.890,0:07:38.750
world is there to work together to make

0:07:37.250,0:07:40.880
sure that we can understand these

0:07:38.750,0:07:42.890
outbreaks when they occur and rapidly

0:07:40.880,0:07:45.460
provide the information necessary to

0:07:42.890,0:07:45.460
control

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I can't predict with accuracy so all I

0:07:48.450,0:07:53.700
can say is that we must all be prepared

0:07:50.310,0:07:55.800
for the worst-case scenario and at the

0:07:53.700,0:07:58.110
same time learn how we can protect

0:07:55.800,0:08:01.640
ourselves and protect others should we

0:07:58.110,0:08:01.640
become a part of that a together

0:08:05.050,0:08:08.569
[Music]

0:08:09.320,0:08:11.380
you