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Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them

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    This story begins in 1985,
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    when at age 22,
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    I became the world chess champion
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    after beating Anatoly Karpov.
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    Earlier that year,
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    I played what is called
    simultaneous exhibition
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    against 32 of the world's
    best chess playing machines
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    in Hamburg, Germany.
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    I won all the games,
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    and then it was not considered
    much of a surprise
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    that I could beat 32 computers
    at the same time.
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    To me, that was the golden age.
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    (Laughter)
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    Machines were weak,
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    and my hair was strong.
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    (Laughter)
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    Just 12 years later,
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    I was fighting for my life
    against just one computer
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    in a match
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    called by the cover of Newsweek
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    "The Brain's Last Stand."
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    No pressure.
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    (Laughter)
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    From mythology to science fiction,
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    human versus machine
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    has been often portrayed
    as a matter of life and death.
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    John Henry called the steel-driving man
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    in the 19th century
    African American folk legend
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    was pitted in a race
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    against steam-powered hammer
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    bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.
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    John Henry's legend is a part
    of a long historical narrative
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    pitting humanity versus technology.
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    And this competitive rhetoric
    is standard now.
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    We are in a race against the machines,
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    in a fight or even in a war.
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    Jobs are being killed off.
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    People are being replaced
    as if they had vanished from the Earth.
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    It's enough to think that the movies
    like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix"
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    are nonfiction.
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    There are very few instances in an arena
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    where the human body and mind
    can compete on equal terms
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    with a computer or a robot.
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    Actually, I wish there were a few more.
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    Instead, it was my blessing and my curse
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    to literally become the proverbial man
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    in the man versus machine competition
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    that everybody is still talking about.
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    In a most famous human-machine
    competition since John Henry,
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    I played two matches
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    against the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue.
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    Nobody remembers
    that I won the first match --
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    (Laughter)
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    (Applause) --
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    in Philadelphia, before losing the rematch
    the following year in New York.
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    But I guess that's fair.
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    There is no day in history
    special calendar entry
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    for all the people who failed
    to climb Mt. Everest
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    before Sir Edmund Hillary
    and Tenzing Norgay
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    made it to the top.
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    And in 1997, I was still
    the world champion
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    when chess computers finally came of age.
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    I was Mt. Everest,
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    and Deep Blue reached the summit.
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    I should stay of course,
    not that Deep Blue did it,
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    but its human creators --
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    Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.
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    Hats off to them.
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    As always, machine's triumph
    was a human triumph,
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    something we tend to forget when humans
    are surpassed by our own creations.
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    Deep Blue was victorious,
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    but was it intelligent?
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    No, no it wasn't,
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    at least not in the way Alan Turing
    and other founders of computer science
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    had hoped.
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    It turned out that chess could be
    crunched by brute force,
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    once hardware got fast enough
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    and algorithms got smart enough.
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    Although by the definition of the output,
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    grandmaster-level chess,
    Deep Blue was intelligent,
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    but even at the incredible speed,
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    200 million positions per second,
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    Deep Blue's method
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    provided little of the dreamed-of insight
    into the mysteries of human intelligence.
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    Soon, machines will be taxi drivers
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    and doctors and professors,
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    but will they be "intelligent?"
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    I would rather leave these definitions
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    to the philosophers and to the dictionary.
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    What really matters is how we humans
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    feel about living and working
    with these machines.
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    When I first met Deep Blue
    in 1996 in February,
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    I had been the world champion
    for more than 10 years,
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    and I had played 182
    world championship games
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    and hundreds of games against
    other top players in other competitions.
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    I knew what to expect
    from my opponents
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    and what to expect from myself.
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    I was used to measure
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    their moves and to gauge
    their emotional state
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    by watching their body language
    and looking into their eyes.
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    And then I sat across
    the chess board from Deep Blue.
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    I immediately sensed something new,
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    something unsettling.
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    You might experience a similar feeling
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    the first time you ride
    in a driverless car
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    or the first time your new computer
    manager issues an order at work.
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    But when I sat at that first game,
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    I couldn't be sure
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    what is the thing capable of.
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    Technology can advance in leaps,
    and IBM had invested heavily.
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    I lost that game,
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    and I couldn't help wondering,
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    might it be invincible?
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    Was my beloved game of chess over?
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    These were human doubts, human fears,
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    and the only thing I knew for sure
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    was that my opponent Deep Blue
    had no such worries at all.
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    (Laughter)
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    I fought back
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    after this devastating blow
    to win the first match,
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    but the writing was on the wall.
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    I eventually lost to the machine
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    but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry
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    who won but died
    with his hammer in his hand.
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    It turned out that the world of chess
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    still wanted to have
    a human chess champion.
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    And even today, when a free chess app
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    on the latest mobile phone
    is stronger than Deep Blue,
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    people are still playing chess,
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    even more than ever before.
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    Doomsayers predicted that nobody
    would touch the game
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    that could be conquered by the machine,
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    and they were wrong, proving wrong,
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    but doomsaying has always been
    a popular pasttime
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    when it comes to technology.
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    What I learned from my own experience
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    is that we must face our fears
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    if we want to get the most
    out of our technology,
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    and we must conquer those fears
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    if we want to get the best
    out of our humanity.
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    While licking my wounds,
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    I got a lot of inspiration
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    from my battles against Deep Blue.
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    As the old Russian saying goes,
    if you can't beat them, join them.
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    Then I thought,
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    what if I could play with a computer,
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    together with a computer at my side,
    combining our strengths,
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    human intuition
    plus machine's calculation,
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    human strategy, machine tactics,
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    human experience, machine's memory.
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    Could it be the perfect game ever played?
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    My idea came to life
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    in 1998 on the name of advanced chess
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    when I played this human-plus-machine
    competition against another elite player,
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    but in this first experiment,
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    we both failed to combine human
    and machine skills effectively.
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    Advanced chess found
    its home on the Internet,
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    and in 2005, a so-called freestyle
    chess tournament
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    produced a revelation.
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    A team of grandmasters
    and top machines participated,
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    but the winners were not grandmasters,
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    not a supercomputer.
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    The winners were a pair of amateur
    American chess players
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    operating three ordinary PCs
    at the same time.
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    Their skill of coaching their machines
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    effectively counteracted
    the superior chess knowledge
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    of their grandmaster opponents
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    and much greater computational
    power of others,
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    and I reached this formulation.
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    A weak human player plus a machine
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    plus a better process is superior
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    to a very power machine alone,
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    but more remarkably, is superior
    to a strong human player
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    plus machine and an inferior process.
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    This convinced me that we would need
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    better interfaces to help us
    coach our machines
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    towards more useful intelligence.
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    Human plus machine isn't the future,
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    it's present.
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    Everybody that's used online translation
    to get the gist of a news article
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    from a foreign newspaper
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    knowing its far from perfect.
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    Then we use our human experience
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    to make sense out of that,
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    and then machine learns
    from our corrections.
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    This model is spreading and investing
    in medical diagnosis, security analysis.
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    The machine crunches data,
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    calculates probabilities,
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    gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent,
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    making it easier for analysis
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    and decision-making of the human party.
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    But you are not going to send your kids
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    to school in self-driving car
    with 90 percent accuracy,
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    even with 99 percent.
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    So we need a leap forward
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    to add a few more crucial decimal places.
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    Twenty years after
    my match with Deep Blue,
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    second match,
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    this sensational "The Brain's
    Last Stand" headline
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    has become commonplace
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    as intelligent machines
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    move in every sector, seemingly every day.
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    But unlike in the past,
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    when machines replaced farm animals,
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    manual labor, now they are coming after
    people with college degrees
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    and political influence,
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    and as someone who fought machines
    and lost, I am here to tell you
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    this is excellent, excellent news.
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    Eventually, every profession
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    will have to feel these pressures
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    or else it will mean humanity
    has ceased to make progress.
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    We don't get to choose
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    when and where
    technological progress stops.
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    We cannot slow down.
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    In fact, we have to speed up.
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    Our technology excels at removing
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    difficulties and uncertainties
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    from our lives,
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    and so we must seek out
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    ever more difficult,
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    ever more uncertain challenges.
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    Machines have calculations.
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    We have understanding.
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    Machines have instructions.
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    We have purpose.
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    Machines have objectivity.
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    We have passion.
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    We should not worry about what
    our machines can do today.
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    Instead, we should worry about
    what they still cannot do today,
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    because we will need the help
    of the new, intelligent machines
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    to turn our grandest dreams into reality.
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    And if we fail,
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    if we fail, it's not because our machines
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    are too intelligent,
    or not intelligent enough.
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    If we fail, it's because
    we grew complacent
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    and limited our ambitions.
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    Our humanity is not defined by any skill,
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    like swinging a hammer
    or even playing chess.
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    There's one thing only a human can do.
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    That's dream.
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    So let us dream big.
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    Thank you.
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    (Applause)
Title:
Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them
Speaker:
Garry Kasparov
Description:

more » « less
Video Language:
English
Team:
closed TED
Project:
TEDTalks
Duration:
15:20
  • This model is spreading and investing
    in medical diagnosis, security analysis.
    ->
    This model is spreading in investing,
    medical diagnosis, security analysis.

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