WEBVTT 00:00:01.175 --> 00:00:04.215 This story begins in 1985, 00:00:04.215 --> 00:00:06.157 when at age 22, 00:00:06.157 --> 00:00:08.708 I became the world chess champion 00:00:08.708 --> 00:00:12.636 after beating Anatoly Karpov. 00:00:12.636 --> 00:00:13.994 Earlier that year, 00:00:13.994 --> 00:00:17.586 I played what is called simultaneous exhibition 00:00:17.586 --> 00:00:22.001 against 32 of the world's best chess playing machines 00:00:22.001 --> 00:00:24.179 in Hamburg, Germany. 00:00:24.179 --> 00:00:26.386 I won all the games, 00:00:26.386 --> 00:00:29.686 and then it was not considered much of a surprise 00:00:29.686 --> 00:00:34.752 that I could beat 32 computers at the same time. 00:00:34.752 --> 00:00:37.291 To me, that was the golden age. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:37.291 --> 00:00:39.847 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:39.847 --> 00:00:41.671 Machines were weak, 00:00:41.671 --> 00:00:43.684 and my hair was strong. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:43.684 --> 00:00:46.030 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:46.030 --> 00:00:49.076 Just 12 years later, 00:00:49.076 --> 00:00:53.706 I was fighting for my life against just one computer 00:00:53.706 --> 00:00:55.041 in a match 00:00:55.041 --> 00:00:57.676 called by the cover of Newsweek 00:00:57.676 --> 00:00:59.573 "The Brain's Last Stand." 00:00:59.573 --> 00:01:00.971 No pressure. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:00.971 --> 00:01:03.140 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:03.140 --> 00:01:06.018 From mythology to science fiction, 00:01:06.018 --> 00:01:08.436 human versus machine 00:01:08.436 --> 00:01:12.274 has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death. 00:01:12.274 --> 00:01:15.611 John Henry called the steel-driving man 00:01:15.611 --> 00:01:19.394 in the 19th century African American folk legend 00:01:19.394 --> 00:01:20.889 was pitted in a race 00:01:20.889 --> 00:01:23.748 against steam-powered hammer 00:01:23.748 --> 00:01:27.247 bashing a tunnel through mountain rock. 00:01:27.247 --> 00:01:31.883 John Henry's legend is a part of a long historical narrative 00:01:31.883 --> 00:01:36.026 pitting humanity versus technology. 00:01:36.026 --> 00:01:39.840 And this competitive rhetoric is standard now. 00:01:39.840 --> 00:01:42.452 We are in a race against the machines, 00:01:42.452 --> 00:01:46.146 in a fight or even in a war. 00:01:46.146 --> 00:01:47.779 Jobs are being killed off. 00:01:47.779 --> 00:01:51.902 People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth. 00:01:51.902 --> 00:01:55.992 It's enough to think that the movies like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix" 00:01:55.992 --> 00:01:58.180 are nonfiction. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:58.180 --> 00:02:05.577 There are very few instances in an arena 00:02:05.577 --> 00:02:09.715 where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms 00:02:09.715 --> 00:02:12.454 with a computer or a robot. 00:02:12.454 --> 00:02:14.841 Actually, I wish there were a few more. 00:02:14.841 --> 00:02:22.971 Instead, it was my blessing and my curse 00:02:22.971 --> 00:02:25.500 to literally become the proverbial man 00:02:25.500 --> 00:02:28.582 in the man versus machine competition 00:02:28.582 --> 00:02:33.362 that everybody is still talking about. 00:02:33.362 --> 00:02:38.433 In a most famous human-machine competition since John Henry, 00:02:38.433 --> 00:02:41.003 I played two matches 00:02:41.003 --> 00:02:44.616 against the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue. 00:02:47.539 --> 00:02:49.758 Nobody remembers that I won the first match -- 00:02:49.758 --> 00:02:51.596 (Laughter) 00:02:51.596 --> 00:02:57.750 (Applause) -- 00:02:57.750 --> 00:03:00.849 in Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York. 00:03:00.849 --> 00:03:04.286 But I guess that's fair. 00:03:04.286 --> 00:03:09.841 There is no day in history special calendar entry 00:03:09.841 --> 00:03:13.348 for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest 00:03:13.348 --> 00:03:16.033 before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay 00:03:16.033 --> 00:03:18.152 made it to the top. 00:03:18.470 --> 00:03:22.683 And in 1997, I was still the world champion 00:03:22.683 --> 00:03:30.012 when chess computers finally came of age. 00:03:30.012 --> 00:03:32.020 I was Mt. Everest, 00:03:32.020 --> 00:03:34.264 and Deep Blue reached the summit. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:34.264 --> 00:03:38.946 I should stay of course, not that Deep Blue did it, 00:03:38.946 --> 00:03:41.391 but its human creators -- 00:03:41.391 --> 00:03:44.748 Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu. 00:03:44.748 --> 00:03:46.374 Hats off to them. 00:03:46.374 --> 00:03:51.626 As always, machine's triumph was a human triumph, 00:03:51.626 --> 00:03:58.585 something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:58.585 --> 00:04:00.780 Deep Blue was victorious, 00:04:00.780 --> 00:04:03.687 but was it intelligent? 00:04:03.687 --> 00:04:06.600 No, no it wasn't, 00:04:06.600 --> 00:04:11.539 at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science 00:04:11.539 --> 00:04:13.486 had hoped. 00:04:13.486 --> 00:04:18.048 It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force, 00:04:18.048 --> 00:04:22.625 once hardware got fast enough 00:04:22.625 --> 00:04:26.637 and algorithms got smart enough. 00:04:26.637 --> 00:04:30.453 Although by the definition of the output, 00:04:30.453 --> 00:04:36.772 grandmaster-level chess, Deep Blue was intelligent, 00:04:36.772 --> 00:04:40.525 but even at the incredible speed, 00:04:40.525 --> 00:04:45.549 200 million positions per second, 00:04:45.549 --> 00:04:47.833 Deep Blue's method 00:04:47.833 --> 00:04:54.986 provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:57.425 --> 00:05:01.266 Soon, machines will be taxi drivers 00:05:01.266 --> 00:05:03.860 and doctors and professors, 00:05:03.860 --> 00:05:06.145 but will they be "intelligent?" 00:05:06.145 --> 00:05:10.115 I would rather leave these definitions 00:05:10.115 --> 00:05:15.472 to the philosophers and to the dictionary. 00:05:15.472 --> 00:05:19.809 What really matters is how we humans 00:05:19.809 --> 00:05:25.703 feel about living and working with these machines. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:25.703 --> 00:05:31.929 When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February, 00:05:31.929 --> 00:05:35.340 I had been the world champion for more than 10 years, 00:05:35.340 --> 00:05:40.634 and I had played 182 world championship games 00:05:40.634 --> 00:05:45.672 and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions. 00:05:45.672 --> 00:05:50.640 I knew what to expect from my opponents 00:05:50.640 --> 00:05:53.246 and what to expect from myself. 00:05:53.246 --> 00:05:55.600 I was used to measure 00:05:55.600 --> 00:06:01.889 their moves and to gauge their emotional state 00:06:01.889 --> 00:06:04.233 by watching their body language and looking into their eyes. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:04.233 --> 00:06:12.192 And then I sat across the chess board from Deep Blue. 00:06:12.192 --> 00:06:16.375 I immediately sensed something new, 00:06:16.375 --> 00:06:18.631 something unsettling. 00:06:18.631 --> 00:06:26.390 You might experience a similar feeling 00:06:26.390 --> 00:06:28.339 the first time you ride in a driverless car 00:06:28.339 --> 00:06:32.499 or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work. 00:06:32.499 --> 00:06:38.745 But when I sat at that first game, 00:06:38.745 --> 00:06:42.804 I couldn't be sure 00:06:42.804 --> 00:06:45.485 what is the thing capable of. 00:06:45.485 --> 00:06:49.102 Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily. 00:06:49.102 --> 00:06:52.816 I lost that game, 00:06:52.816 --> 00:06:54.821 and I couldn't help wondering, 00:06:54.821 --> 00:06:57.427 might it be invincible? 00:06:57.427 --> 00:07:02.027 Was my beloved game of chess over? 00:07:02.027 --> 00:07:05.904 These were human doubts, human fears, 00:07:05.904 --> 00:07:07.743 and the only thing I knew for sure 00:07:07.743 --> 00:07:13.133 was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:13.133 --> 00:07:14.189 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:07:14.189 --> 00:07:16.768 I fought back 00:07:16.768 --> 00:07:19.451 after this devastating blow to win the first match, 00:07:19.451 --> 00:07:24.877 but the writing was on the wall. 00:07:24.877 --> 00:07:28.113 I eventually lost to the machine 00:07:28.113 --> 00:07:30.217 but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry 00:07:30.217 --> 00:07:37.927 who won but died with his hammer in his hand. 00:07:37.927 --> 00:07:40.717 It turned out that the world of chess 00:07:40.717 --> 00:07:45.293 still wanted to have a human chess champion. 00:07:45.293 --> 00:07:50.069 And even today, when a free chess app 00:07:50.069 --> 00:07:54.360 on the latest mobile phone is stronger than Deep Blue, 00:07:54.360 --> 00:07:57.090 people are still playing chess, 00:07:57.090 --> 00:08:01.741 even more than ever before. 00:08:01.741 --> 00:08:04.013 Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game 00:08:04.013 --> 00:08:05.742 that could be conquered by the machine, 00:08:05.742 --> 00:08:08.099 and they were wrong, proving wrong, 00:08:08.099 --> 00:08:11.695 but doomsaying has always been a popular pasttime 00:08:11.695 --> 00:08:14.840 when it comes to technology. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:14.840 --> 00:08:17.660 What I learned from my own experience 00:08:17.660 --> 00:08:22.380 is that we must face our fears 00:08:22.380 --> 00:08:25.343 if we want to get the most out of our technology, 00:08:25.343 --> 00:08:29.102 and we must conquer those fears 00:08:29.102 --> 00:08:35.698 if we want to get the best out of our humanity. 00:08:35.698 --> 00:08:38.242 While licking my wounds, 00:08:38.242 --> 00:08:41.726 I got a lot of inspiration 00:08:41.726 --> 00:08:44.556 from my battles against Deep Blue. 00:08:44.556 --> 00:08:49.367 As the old Russian saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them. 00:08:49.367 --> 00:08:50.676 Then I thought, 00:08:50.676 --> 00:08:54.119 what if I could play with a computer, 00:08:54.119 --> 00:08:57.545 together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths, 00:08:57.545 --> 00:09:01.998 human intuition plus machine's calculation, 00:09:01.998 --> 00:09:04.252 human strategy, machine tactics, 00:09:04.252 --> 00:09:06.513 human experience, machine's memory. 00:09:06.513 --> 00:09:10.556 Could it be the perfect game ever played? NOTE Paragraph 00:09:10.556 --> 00:09:13.245 My idea came to life 00:09:13.245 --> 00:09:16.960 in 1998 on the name of advanced chess 00:09:16.960 --> 00:09:20.907 when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player, 00:09:20.907 --> 00:09:25.516 but in this first experiment, 00:09:25.516 --> 00:09:35.307 we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively. 00:09:35.307 --> 00:09:38.798 Advanced chess found its home on the Internet, 00:09:38.798 --> 00:09:43.623 and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament 00:09:43.623 --> 00:09:46.206 produced a revelation. 00:09:46.206 --> 00:09:51.055 A team of grandmasters and top machines participated, 00:09:51.055 --> 00:09:54.632 but the winners were not grandmasters, 00:09:54.632 --> 00:09:55.986 not a supercomputer. 00:09:55.986 --> 00:10:01.138 The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players 00:10:01.138 --> 00:10:05.944 operating three ordinary PCs at the same time. 00:10:05.944 --> 00:10:09.101 Their skill of coaching their machines 00:10:09.101 --> 00:10:12.466 effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge 00:10:12.466 --> 00:10:16.593 of their grandmaster opponents 00:10:16.593 --> 00:10:21.964 and much greater computational power of others, 00:10:21.964 --> 00:10:24.860 and I reached this formulation. 00:10:24.860 --> 00:10:28.349 A weak human player plus a machine 00:10:28.349 --> 00:10:31.550 plus a better process is superior 00:10:31.550 --> 00:10:34.007 to a very power machine alone, 00:10:34.007 --> 00:10:37.655 but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player 00:10:37.655 --> 00:10:46.803 plus machine and an inferior process. 00:10:46.803 --> 00:10:49.999 This convinced me that we would need 00:10:49.999 --> 00:10:54.716 better interfaces to help us coach our machines 00:10:54.716 --> 00:10:57.672 towards more useful intelligence. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:57.672 --> 00:11:01.935 Human plus machine isn't the future, 00:11:01.935 --> 00:11:03.108 it's present. 00:11:03.108 --> 00:11:09.620 Everybody that's used online translation to get the gist of a news article 00:11:09.620 --> 00:11:11.755 from a foreign newspaper 00:11:11.755 --> 00:11:14.041 knowing its far from perfect. 00:11:14.041 --> 00:11:16.142 Then we use our human experience 00:11:16.142 --> 00:11:18.252 to make sense out of that, 00:11:18.252 --> 00:11:21.061 and then machine learns from our corrections. 00:11:21.061 --> 00:11:27.045 This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis. 00:11:27.045 --> 00:11:30.527 The machine crunches data, 00:11:30.527 --> 00:11:31.576 calculates probabilities, 00:11:31.576 --> 00:11:35.047 gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent, 00:11:35.047 --> 00:11:39.173 making it easier for analysis 00:11:39.173 --> 00:11:42.725 and decision-making of the human party. 00:11:42.725 --> 00:11:48.764 But you are not going to send your kids 00:11:48.764 --> 00:11:53.113 to school in self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy, 00:11:53.113 --> 00:11:55.827 even with 99 percent. 00:11:55.827 --> 00:11:58.712 So we need a leap forward 00:11:58.712 --> 00:12:07.236 to add a few more crucial decimal places. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:07.236 --> 00:12:12.450 Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue, 00:12:12.450 --> 00:12:14.363 second match, 00:12:14.363 --> 00:12:19.365 this sensational "The Brain's Last Stand" headline 00:12:19.365 --> 00:12:22.239 has become commonplace 00:12:22.239 --> 00:12:24.630 as intelligent machines 00:12:24.630 --> 00:12:30.721 move in every sector, seemingly every day. 00:12:30.721 --> 00:12:33.514 But unlike in the past, 00:12:33.514 --> 00:12:38.186 when machines replaced farm animals, 00:12:38.186 --> 00:12:42.637 manual labor, now they are coming after people with college degrees 00:12:42.637 --> 00:12:44.637 and political influence, 00:12:44.637 --> 00:12:47.639 and as someone who fought machines and lost, I am here to tell you 00:12:47.639 --> 00:12:51.323 this is excellent, excellent news. 00:12:51.323 --> 00:12:53.692 Eventually, every profession 00:12:53.692 --> 00:12:55.768 will have to feel these pressures 00:12:55.768 --> 00:13:02.583 or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress. 00:13:02.583 --> 00:13:08.749 We don't get to choose 00:13:08.749 --> 00:13:13.484 when and where technological progress stops. 00:13:13.484 --> 00:13:18.215 We cannot slow down. 00:13:18.215 --> 00:13:25.183 In fact, we have to speed up. 00:13:25.183 --> 00:13:29.764 Our technology excels at removing 00:13:29.764 --> 00:13:32.057 difficulties and uncertainties 00:13:32.057 --> 00:13:35.341 from our lives, 00:13:35.341 --> 00:13:38.361 and so we must seek out 00:13:38.361 --> 00:13:40.403 ever more difficult, 00:13:40.403 --> 00:13:48.766 ever more uncertain challenges. 00:13:48.766 --> 00:13:54.044 Machines have calculations. 00:13:54.044 --> 00:13:56.032 We have understanding. 00:13:56.032 --> 00:13:58.316 Machines have instructions. 00:13:58.316 --> 00:14:00.890 We have purpose. 00:14:00.890 --> 00:14:04.253 Machines have objectivity. 00:14:04.253 --> 00:14:08.781 We have passion. 00:14:08.781 --> 00:14:15.038 We should not worry about what our machines can do today. 00:14:15.038 --> 00:14:19.457 Instead, we should worry about what they still cannot do today, 00:14:19.457 --> 00:14:25.064 because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines 00:14:25.064 --> 00:14:30.410 to turn our grandest dreams into reality. 00:14:30.410 --> 00:14:32.597 And if we fail, 00:14:32.597 --> 00:14:36.299 if we fail, it's not because our machines 00:14:36.299 --> 00:14:39.631 are too intelligent, or not intelligent enough. 00:14:39.631 --> 00:14:44.084 If we fail, it's because we grew complacent 00:14:44.084 --> 00:14:47.110 and limited our ambitions. 00:14:47.110 --> 00:14:51.815 Our humanity is not defined by any skill, 00:14:51.815 --> 00:14:54.888 like swinging a hammer or even playing chess. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:54.888 --> 00:14:58.034 There's one thing only a human can do. 00:14:58.034 --> 00:15:00.049 That's dream. 00:15:00.049 --> 00:15:02.851 So let us dream big. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:02.851 --> 00:15:04.869 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:04.869 --> 00:15:07.807 (Applause)