Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them
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0:01 - 0:04This story begins in 1985,
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0:04 - 0:06when at age 22,
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0:06 - 0:08I became the World Chess Champion
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0:08 - 0:12after beating Anatoly Karpov.
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0:12 - 0:14Earlier that year,
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0:14 - 0:17I played what is called
simultaneous exhibition -
0:17 - 0:22against 32 of the world's
best chess-playing machines -
0:22 - 0:23in Hamburg, Germany.
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0:24 - 0:25I won all the games,
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0:27 - 0:30and then it was not considered
much of a surprise -
0:30 - 0:34that I could beat 32 computers
at the same time. -
0:34 - 0:37To me, that was the golden age.
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0:37 - 0:39(Laughter)
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0:39 - 0:41Machines were weak,
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0:42 - 0:43and my hair was strong.
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0:43 - 0:45(Laughter)
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0:47 - 0:49Just 12 years later,
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0:49 - 0:53I was fighting for my life
against just one computer -
0:53 - 0:55in a match
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0:55 - 0:57called by the cover of "Newsweek"
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0:57 - 0:59"The Brain's Last Stand."
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0:59 - 1:00No pressure.
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1:00 - 1:02(Laughter)
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1:03 - 1:06From mythology to science fiction,
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1:06 - 1:08human versus machine
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1:08 - 1:11has been often portrayed
as a matter of life and death. -
1:12 - 1:14John Henry,
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1:14 - 1:15called the steel-driving man
-
1:15 - 1:19in the 19th century
African American folk legend, -
1:19 - 1:20was pitted in a race
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1:20 - 1:23against a steam-powered hammer
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1:23 - 1:26bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.
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1:27 - 1:31John Henry's legend
is a part of a long historical narrative -
1:32 - 1:35pitting humanity versus technology.
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1:36 - 1:39And this competitive rhetoric
is standard now. -
1:40 - 1:42We are in a race against the machines,
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1:42 - 1:44in a fight or even in a war.
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1:46 - 1:47Jobs are being killed off.
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1:48 - 1:51People are being replaced
as if they had vanished from the Earth. -
1:52 - 1:56It's enough to think that the movies
like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix" -
1:56 - 1:57are nonfiction.
-
2:00 - 2:04There are very few instances of an arena
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2:05 - 2:10where the human body and mind
can compete on equal terms -
2:10 - 2:11with a computer or a robot.
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2:12 - 2:14Actually, I wish there were a few more.
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2:16 - 2:17Instead,
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2:18 - 2:22it was my blessing and my curse
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2:23 - 2:25to literally become the proverbial man
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2:25 - 2:28in the man versus machine competition
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2:28 - 2:30that everybody is still talking about.
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2:33 - 2:38In the most famous human-machine
competition since John Henry, -
2:38 - 2:41I played two matches
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2:41 - 2:44against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue.
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2:47 - 2:49Nobody remembers
that I won the first match -- -
2:49 - 2:52(Laughter)
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2:52 - 2:55(Applause)
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2:56 - 3:01In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch
the following year in New York. -
3:01 - 3:03But I guess that's fair.
-
3:04 - 3:09There is no day in history,
special calendar entry -
3:09 - 3:13for all the people
who failed to climb Mt. Everest -
3:13 - 3:16before Sir Edmund Hillary
and Tenzing Norgay -
3:16 - 3:17made it to the top.
-
3:18 - 3:22And in 1997, I was still
the world champion -
3:25 - 3:29when chess computers finally came of age.
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3:30 - 3:31I was Mt. Everest,
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3:32 - 3:33and Deep Blue reached the summit.
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3:35 - 3:39I should say of course,
not that Deep Blue did it, -
3:39 - 3:41but its human creators --
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3:41 - 3:44Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.
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3:44 - 3:45Hats off to them.
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3:47 - 3:51As always, machine's triumph
was a human triumph, -
3:51 - 3:56something we tend to forget when humans
are surpassed by our own creations. -
3:58 - 4:00Deep Blue was victorious,
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4:01 - 4:03but was it intelligent?
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4:03 - 4:05No, no it wasn't,
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4:06 - 4:11at least not in the way Alan Turing
and other founders of computer science -
4:11 - 4:12had hoped.
-
4:13 - 4:18It turned out that chess
could be crunched by brute force, -
4:18 - 4:22once hardware got fast enough
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4:22 - 4:25and algorithms got smart enough.
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4:27 - 4:30Although by the definition of the output,
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4:30 - 4:34grandmaster-level chess,
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4:34 - 4:35Deep Blue was intelligent.
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4:37 - 4:40But even at the incredible speed,
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4:41 - 4:44200 million positions per second,
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4:45 - 4:47Deep Blue's method
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4:47 - 4:54provided little of the dreamed-of insight
into the mysteries of human intelligence. -
4:57 - 4:59Soon,
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4:59 - 5:01machines will be taxi drivers
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5:01 - 5:04and doctors and professors,
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5:04 - 5:06but will they be "intelligent?"
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5:08 - 5:10I would rather leave these definitions
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5:10 - 5:14to the philosophers and to the dictionary.
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5:15 - 5:19What really matters is how we humans
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5:20 - 5:24feel about living and working
with these machines. -
5:26 - 5:31When I first met Deep Blue
in 1996 in February, -
5:31 - 5:34I had been the world champion
for more than 10 years, -
5:36 - 5:40and I had played 182
world championship games -
5:40 - 5:45and hundreds of games against
other top players in other competitions. -
5:45 - 5:50I knew what to expect from my opponents
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5:50 - 5:52and what to expect from myself.
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5:53 - 5:58I was used to measure their moves
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5:58 - 6:01and to gauge their emotional state
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6:02 - 6:05by watching their body language
and looking into their eyes. -
6:06 - 6:10And then I sat across
the chessboard from Deep Blue. -
6:13 - 6:16I immediately sensed something new,
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6:16 - 6:17something unsettling.
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6:19 - 6:22You might experience a similar feeling
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6:23 - 6:26the first time you ride
in a driverless car -
6:26 - 6:31or the first time your new computer
manager issues an order at work. -
6:34 - 6:37But when I sat at that first game,
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6:38 - 6:40I couldn't be sure
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6:40 - 6:44what is this thing capable of.
-
6:45 - 6:48Technology can advance in leaps,
and IBM had invested heavily. -
6:49 - 6:50I lost that game.
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6:52 - 6:54And I couldn't help wondering,
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6:54 - 6:56might it be invincible?
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6:57 - 6:59Was my beloved game of chess over?
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7:01 - 7:05These were human doubts, human fears,
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7:05 - 7:07and the only thing I knew for sure
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7:07 - 7:10was that my opponent Deep Blue
had no such worries at all. -
7:10 - 7:12(Laughter)
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7:14 - 7:15I fought back
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7:16 - 7:18after this devastating blow
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7:19 - 7:20to win the first match,
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7:21 - 7:23but the writing was on the wall.
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7:24 - 7:27I eventually lost to the machine
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7:27 - 7:30but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry
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7:30 - 7:33who won but died
with his hammer in his hand. -
7:33 - 7:36[John Henry Died with a Hammer in His Hand
Palmer C. Hayden] -
7:36 - 7:38[The Museum of African
American Art, Los Angeles] -
7:38 - 7:40It turned out that the world of chess
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7:40 - 7:44still wanted to have
a human chess champion. -
7:45 - 7:47And even today,
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7:48 - 7:52when a free chess app
on the latest mobile phone -
7:52 - 7:54is stronger than Deep Blue,
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7:54 - 7:55people are still playing chess,
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7:57 - 7:59even more than ever before.
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8:00 - 8:03Doomsayers predicted
that nobody would touch the game -
8:03 - 8:05that could be conquered by the machine,
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8:05 - 8:08and they were wrong, proven wrong,
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8:08 - 8:11but doomsaying has always been
a popular pastime -
8:11 - 8:12when it comes to technology.
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8:14 - 8:17What I learned from my own experience
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8:17 - 8:22is that we must face our fears
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8:22 - 8:26if we want to get the most
out of our technology, -
8:26 - 8:29and we must conquer those fears
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8:29 - 8:34if we want to get the best
out of our humanity. -
8:36 - 8:38While licking my wounds,
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8:38 - 8:40I got a lot of inspiration
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8:41 - 8:44from my battles against Deep Blue.
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8:44 - 8:47As the old Russian saying goes,
if you can't beat them, join them. -
8:49 - 8:50Then I thought,
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8:50 - 8:53what if I could play with a computer --
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8:53 - 8:56together with a computer at my side,
combining our strengths, -
8:57 - 9:01human intuition
plus machine's calculation, -
9:01 - 9:04human strategy, machine tactics,
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9:04 - 9:06human experience, machine's memory.
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9:06 - 9:08Could it be the perfect game ever played?
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9:10 - 9:12My idea came to life
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9:13 - 9:16in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess
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9:16 - 9:22when I played this human-plus-machine
competition against another elite player. -
9:23 - 9:25But in this first experiment,
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9:25 - 9:32we both failed to combine
human and machine skills effectively. -
9:35 - 9:37Advanced Chess found
its home on the internet, -
9:38 - 9:43and in 2005, a so-called
freestyle chess tournament -
9:43 - 9:44produced a revelation.
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9:47 - 9:51A team of grandmasters
and top machines participated, -
9:51 - 9:54but the winners were not grandmasters,
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9:54 - 9:55not a supercomputer.
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9:56 - 10:00The winners were a pair
of amateur American chess players -
10:00 - 10:03operating three ordinary PCs
at the same time. -
10:06 - 10:09Their skill of coaching their machines
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10:09 - 10:14effectively counteracted
the superior chess knowledge -
10:14 - 10:16of their grandmaster opponents
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10:16 - 10:20and much greater
computational power of others. -
10:22 - 10:24And I reached this formulation.
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10:25 - 10:28A weak human player plus a machine
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10:28 - 10:31plus a better process is superior
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10:31 - 10:34to a very powerful machine alone,
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10:34 - 10:38but more remarkably,
is superior to a strong human player -
10:38 - 10:40plus machine
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10:41 - 10:44and an inferior process.
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10:46 - 10:48This convinced me that we would need
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10:50 - 10:54better interfaces
to help us coach our machines -
10:55 - 10:56towards more useful intelligence.
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10:58 - 11:02Human plus machine isn't the future,
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11:02 - 11:03it's the present.
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11:03 - 11:07Everybody that's used online translation
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11:07 - 11:11to get the gist of a news article
from a foreign newspaper, -
11:11 - 11:13knowing its far from perfect.
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11:14 - 11:16Then we use our human experience
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11:16 - 11:18to make sense out of that,
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11:18 - 11:21and then the machine
learns from our corrections. -
11:21 - 11:26This model is spreading and investing
in medical diagnosis, security analysis. -
11:26 - 11:29The machine crunches data,
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11:29 - 11:31calculates probabilities,
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11:31 - 11:35gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent,
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11:35 - 11:39making it easier for analysis
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11:39 - 11:42and decision-making of the human party.
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11:42 - 11:47But you are not going to send your kids
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11:48 - 11:52to school in a self-driving car
with 90 percent accuracy, -
11:53 - 11:54even with 99 percent.
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11:56 - 11:58So we need a leap forward
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11:58 - 12:05to add a few more crucial decimal places.
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12:07 - 12:11Twenty years after
my match with Deep Blue, -
12:12 - 12:14second match,
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12:14 - 12:20this sensational
"The Brain's Last Stand" headline -
12:20 - 12:22has become commonplace
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12:22 - 12:24as intelligent machines
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12:24 - 12:26move
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12:27 - 12:29in every sector, seemingly every day.
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12:30 - 12:33But unlike in the past,
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12:33 - 12:35when machines replaced
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12:36 - 12:39farm animals, manual labor,
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12:39 - 12:41now they are coming
after people with college degrees -
12:41 - 12:43and political influence.
-
12:44 - 12:46And as someone
who fought machines and lost, -
12:46 - 12:49I am here to tell you
this is excellent, excellent news. -
12:51 - 12:53Eventually, every profession
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12:53 - 12:55will have to feel these pressures
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12:55 - 13:01or else it will mean humanity
has ceased to make progress. -
13:03 - 13:04We don't
-
13:05 - 13:07get to choose
-
13:08 - 13:11when and where
technological progress stops. -
13:13 - 13:15We cannot
-
13:16 - 13:17slow down.
-
13:17 - 13:19In fact,
-
13:19 - 13:21we have to speed up.
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13:25 - 13:27Our technology excels at removing
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13:29 - 13:33difficulties and uncertainties
from our lives, -
13:35 - 13:38and so we must seek out
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13:38 - 13:40ever more difficult,
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13:40 - 13:44ever more uncertain challenges.
-
13:48 - 13:49Machines have
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13:52 - 13:54calculations.
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13:54 - 13:55We have understanding.
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13:55 - 13:57Machines have instructions.
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13:59 - 14:01We have purpose.
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14:01 - 14:03Machines have
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14:05 - 14:06objectivity.
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14:06 - 14:08We have passion.
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14:09 - 14:15We should not worry
about what our machines can do today. -
14:15 - 14:19Instead, we should worry
about what they still cannot do today, -
14:19 - 14:25because we will need the help
of the new, intelligent machines -
14:25 - 14:29to turn our grandest dreams into reality.
-
14:30 - 14:31And if we fail,
-
14:32 - 14:37if we fail, it's not because our machines
are too intelligent, -
14:37 - 14:38or not intelligent enough.
-
14:39 - 14:42If we fail, it's because
we grew complacent -
14:44 - 14:45and limited our ambitions.
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14:47 - 14:50Our humanity is not defined by any skill,
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14:51 - 14:54like swinging a hammer
or even playing chess. -
14:55 - 14:58There's one thing only a human can do.
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14:58 - 14:59That's dream.
-
15:00 - 15:03So let us dream big.
-
15:03 - 15:04Thank you.
-
15:04 - 15:08(Applause)
- Title:
- Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them
- Speaker:
- Garry Kasparov
- Description:
-
We must face our fears if we want to get the most out of technology -- and we must conquer those fears if we want to get the best out of humanity, says Garry Kasparov. One of the greatest chess players in history, Kasparov lost a memorable match to IBM supercomputer Deep Blue in 1997. Now he shares his vision for a future where intelligent machines help us turn our grandest dreams into reality.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 15:20
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Yasushi Aoki
This model is spreading and investing
in medical diagnosis, security analysis.
->
This model is spreading in investing,
medical diagnosis, security analysis.