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ste
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those of you who have seen the film
money ball
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or read the book by michael lewis
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will be similar with the story billy
bean
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billy was supposed to be a tremendous
ballplayer all the scouts told them so
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they told his parents that
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they predicted that he was going to be a
star
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what actually happened when he signed
the contract and by the way he didn't
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want to sign a contract we want to go to
college
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which is not my mother who actually does
love me
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that i should do to you and i did
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well he didn't do very well he struggled
mightily
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he got traded a couple times she ended
up in the miners most of his career
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and he actually ended up in management
ended up as a general manager of the
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open dates
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now for many of you in this room ending
up in management which is also what i've
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done
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is seen as a success
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i can assure you that for a kid trying
to make it in the base
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mad going into management and a success
story it's a failure
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and what i want to talk to you that
today and and share with you is that our
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health care system our medical system is
just a is bad at predicting
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what happens to people in it patients
others
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those scouts were at predicting what
would happen to billy being
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everyday
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thousands of people in this country
-
art diagnosed
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preconditions
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we share about tree hypertension we care
about tree dementia
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we care about free anxiety and i'm
pretty sure that i'd agnes myself with
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that in the green room
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we also refer to subclinical conditions
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there's subclinical atherosclerosis
subclinical hardening of the arteries
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obviously linked to heart attacks
potentially
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i'm one of my favorites is called
subclinical acne
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if you look up subclinical acne you may
find a website which i did
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which says that this is the easiest type
of acne to treat
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don't have the post rules are the
redness inflammation
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maybe that's because you don't actually
have acted
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i haven't the name for all these
conditions it's another precondition
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i call them preposterous
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in baseball
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the game
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follows the pre-game
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season
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follows the preseason
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with a lot of these conditions that
actually isn't the case releases in the
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case all the time it's as if there's a
rain delay every single time in many
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cases
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we have pre-cancerous lesions
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often don't turn into cancer
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and yet
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if you take for example subclinical
osteoporosis or bone thinning disease
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the precondition
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otherwise known as ours to kenya
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you'd have to treat two hundred seventy
women for three years
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notre prevent one broken bone
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that's an awful lot of women
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when you multiply by the number of women
who were diagnosed
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with this esther pina
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and so is it any wonder
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given all the costs and the side effects
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of the drugs that were using the treat
these preconditions that every year
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we're spending more than two trillion
dollars on health care and yet one
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hundred thousand people a year and
that's conservative estimate are dying
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not because of the conditions they have
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but because of the treatments or giving
them and the complications of those
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treatments
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we've medical as everything
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in this country
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uh... women in the audience site have
some
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pretty bad news you already know
-
and that's that every aspect of your
life
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has been medical hottest
-
strike one is when you hit puberty
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you'd now have something that happens
you once a month that has been medical
-
institute condition
-
espy treats right too
-
is if you get pregnant
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you half that's been medical arts as
well
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you have to have a high tech experience
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of pregnancy otherwise something might
go wrong
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strike three
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is menopause
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we all know what happened when millions
of women were given hormone replacement
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therapy
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for work for it
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menopausal symptoms
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for decades until all the suddenly
realized because the state came at a big
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one than h funded
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it said
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actually a lot of that commonplace in
therapy may be doing more harm than good
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of those women
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just in case
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i don't want to leave the men out
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i am one after all
-
i have really bad news for all of you in
this room
-
and for everyone
-
listening and watching elsewhere
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you all have
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a universally fatal condition
-
just take a moment
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it's called pre death
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every single one of you has it because
you have the risk factor for it
-
which is being a lot
-
but i have some good news for you
because
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i'm a journalist elected and things and
happy where forward-thinking way
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and that's good news is that if you can
survive to the end of my talk which
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will see if that happens for everyone
-
you will be eight revive her
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i made up three deaf
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if i use someone else's freed up by
apologizing
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i think i made it up
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i didn't make a provider
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provider is what a particular cancer
advocacy group would like everyone who
-
just has a risk factor
-
but hasn't actually had that cancer
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to call themselves
-
your eight revival
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is ready to be out here this morning
morning if mark burnett is anyone the
-
audience i'd like to suggest
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nellie reality tv show called revival
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if you develop the disease you're off
the island
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the problem is we have a system
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that is completely
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basically promoted this
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we've selected at every point in the
system
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to do what we do and to give everyone a
precondition and then eventually
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condition in some cases
-
start with the doctor patient
relationship doctors most of them
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in a few for service system they're
basically incentivize to do more
-
procedures tests
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prescribe medication
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patients come to them
-
they want to do something where
americans we have to we can't just stand
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there we have to do something and so
they want to be a drug
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they wanted treatment they want to be
told this is what you have this is how
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you treat it let's keep the doctor
doesn't give you that
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you go somewhere else
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that's not very good for doctors
business
-
or even worse
-
if you are diagnosis something
eventually and the a doctor didn't order
-
that test
-
you get sued
-
we have pharmaceutical companies are
costly trying to expand
-
the indications expand the number of
people who are eligible for a given
-
treatment
-
because that's the help survival
money-back disagreements
-
like the one that's come up with
provider
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who want to make more and more people
fill their at her regrets or might have
-
a condition
-
so that they can raise more funds
-
and raise visibility
-
etcetera
-
this is an actually
-
despite what journalist typically do
this is not actually got blaming
-
particular players
-
we are all responsible
-
i'm responsible
-
i actually was for the yankees and talk
about
-
being sort of rooting for the worst
possible
-
offender when it comes to doing
everything you can do
-
everyone who's responsible uh... hai
-
you know went to medical school
-
and high was by didn't have a course
called had i think skeptically or
-
how not to order tests
-
we have this sort of system
-
where you know that's what you do
-
and actually took being a journalist
-
you know to understand all these
incentives you know economists like to
-
say
-
down a bit people
-
there are just banned sentence
-
and that's actually true
-
here's what we've created as a sort of
field of dreams when it comes to medical
-
technology
-
so when you put him another mri_ in
every corner you put the robot
-
in every hospital saying that there's
one has to have robotic surgery
-
well we've created system where if you
build it they will come
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but
-
you can actually traverse lee
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tell people become tell convince them
-
that they have to come
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it was when i became a journalist and i
really realized how i was part of this
-
problem
-
and how we all or part of this problem
-
i was medical ising every risk factor as
writing stories commissioning stories
-
everyday
-
trying to sort of
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but mr lim people worried though that
was what often happens
-
you know there are ways out
-
i someone internist last week
-
and
-
he said to me
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you know and he told me something that
-
everyone in this audience could have
told me for free
-
but i paid him for the privilege which
is that
-
i need to lose some weight
-
well he's right i've had
honest-to-goodness high blood pressure
-
for a dozen years now stand
-
age my father got it
-
and it's a real disease it's not pre
hypertension is actual
-
hypertension high blood pressure
-
well he's right
-
and that's but he didn't say to me
-
well you have pre-opening city or
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you have pre diabetes or anything like
that he didn't say
-
better start taking this step mid to
lower your cholesterol
-
they always have gotten some way come
back and sing in a bit
-
we're just in a common higher doing
-
so that's to me
-
you know away for work
-
billy being by the way when the same
thing
-
he learned
-
from watching this kid in the event
rehired who's really successful form
-
it wasn't swing for the fences that
wasn't sweeney at every pitch
-
like the sluggers do which is what all
the expense of teams like the yankees
-
like to
-
they like to pick up those guys
-
this kid solvent you know you gotta
watch the guys in depth go out and find
-
the guys who like to walk
-
is getting on this by a walk
-
is just as good and in our health care
system
-
we need to figure out
-
is that really good pitch
-
or should we let it go by and not swing
everything