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Bryn Freedman: You're a guy whose company
funds these AI programs and invests.
-
So why should we trust you
to not have a bias
-
and tell us something really useful
for the rest of us
-
about the future of work?
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Roy Bahat: Yes, I am.
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And when you wake up in the morning
and you read the newspaper
-
and it says, "The robots are coming,
they may take all our jobs,"
-
as a start-up investor
focused on the future of work,
-
our fund was the first one to say
-
artificial intelligence
should be a focus for us.
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So I woke up one morning
and read that and said,
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"Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me.
That's me who's doing that."
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And then I thought: wait a minute.
-
If things continue,
-
then maybe not only will the start-ups
in which we invest struggle
-
because there won't be people to have jobs
-
to pay for the things
that they make and buy them,
-
but our economy and society
might struggle, too.
-
And look, I should be the guy
who sits here and tells you,
-
"Everything is going to be fine.
It's all going to work out great.
-
Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine,
-
years later, there's more
tellers in banks."
-
It's true.
-
And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,
"This is going to accelerate.
-
And if it does accelerate,
there's a chance the center doesn't hold."
-
But I figured somebody must know
the answer to this;
-
there are so many ideas out there.
-
And I read all the books
and I went to the conferences,
-
and at one point, we counted more than
100 efforts to study the future of work.
-
And it was a frustrating experience,
-
because I'd hear the same back-and-forth
over and over again:
-
"The robots are coming!"
-
And then somebody else would say,
-
"Oh, don't worry about that, they've
always said that and it turns out OK."
-
Then somebody else would say,
-
"Well, it's really about the meaning
of your job, anyway."
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And then everybody would shrug
and go off and have a drink.
-
And it felt like there was this
Kabuki theater of this discussion,
-
where nobody was talking to each other.
-
And many of the people that I knew
and worked with in the technology world
-
were not speaking to policy makers,
-
the policy makers
were not speaking to them.
-
And so we partnered with a nonpartisan
think tank NGO called New America
-
to study this issue.
-
And we brought together a group of people,
-
including an AI czar
at a technology company
-
and a video game designer
-
and a heartland conservative
-
and a Wall Street investor
-
and a socialist magazine editor --
-
literally, all in the same room;
it was occasionally awkward --
-
to try to figure out
what is it that will happen here.
-
The question we asked was simple.
-
It was: What is the effect of technology
on work going to be?
-
And we looked out 10 to 20 years,
-
because we wanted to look out far enough
that there could be real change,
-
but soon enough that we weren't talking
about teleportation or anything like that.
-
And we recognized --
-
and I think every year
we're reminded of this in the world --
-
that predicting what's
going to happen is hard,
-
so instead of predicting,
there are other things you can do.
-
You can try to imagine
alternate possible futures,
-
which is what we did.
-
We did a scenario-planning exercise,
-
and we imagined cases
where no job is safe.
-
We imagined cases where every job is safe.
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And we imagined every
distinct possibility we could.
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And the result, which really surprised us,
-
was when you think through those futures
and you think what should we do,
-
the answers about what we should do
actually turn out to be the same,
-
no matter what happens.
-
And the irony of looking out
10 to 20 years into the future is,
-
you realize that the things
we want to act on
-
are actually already happening right now.
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The automation is right now,
the future is right now.
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BF: So what does that mean,
and what does that tell us?
-
If the future is now, what is it
that we should be doing,
-
and what should we be thinking about?
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RB: We have to understand
the problem first.
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And so the data are that as the economy
becomes more productive
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and individual workers
become more productive,
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their wages haven't risen.
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If you look at the proportion
of prime working-age men,
-
in the United States at least,
-
who work now versus in 1960,
-
we have three times
as many men not working.
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And then you hear the stories.
-
I sat down with a group
of Walmart workers and said,
-
"What do you think about this cashier,
this futuristic self-checkout thing?"
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They said, "That's nice, but have
you heard about the cash recycler?
-
That's a machine that's being
installed right now,
-
and is eliminating two jobs
at every Walmart right now."
-
And so we just thought, "Geez. We don't
understand the problem."
-
And so we looked at the voices
that were the ones that were excluded,
-
which is all of the people
affected by this change.
-
And we decided to listen to them,
-
sort of "automation and its discontents."
-
And I've spent the last
couple of years doing that.
-
I've been to Flint, Michigan
and Youngstown, Ohio,
-
talking about entrepreneurs,
trying to make it work
-
in a very different environment
from New York or San Francisco
-
or London or Tokyo.
-
I've been to prisons twice,
-
to talk to inmates about
their jobs after they leave.
-
I've sat down with truck drivers
to ask them about the self-driving truck,
-
with people who, in addition
to their full-time job,
-
care for an aging relative.
-
And when you talk to people,
-
there were two themes
that came out loud and clear.
-
The first one was that people
are less looking for more money
-
or get out of the fear
of the robot taking their job,
-
and they just want something stable.
-
They want something predictable.
-
So if you survey people and ask them
what they want out of work,
-
for everybody who makes
less than 150,000 dollars a year,
-
they'll take a more stable
and secure income, on average,
-
over earning more money.
-
And if you think about the fact that
-
not only for all of the people
across the earth who don't earn a living,
-
but for those who do,
-
the vast majority earn a different
amount from month to month
-
and have an instability,
-
all of a sudden you realize,
-
"Wait a minute. We have
a real problem on our hands."
-
And the second thing they say,
which took us a longer time to understand,
-
is they say they want dignity.
-
And that concept
of self-worth through work
-
emerged again and again and again
in our conversations.
-
BF: So, I certainly
appreciate this answer.
-
But you can't eat dignity,
-
you can't clothe your children
with self-esteem.
-
So, what is that, how do you reconcile --
-
what does dignity mean,
-
and what is the relationship
between dignity and stability?
-
RB: You can't eat dignity.
You need stability first.
-
And the good news is,
-
many of the conversations
that are happening right now
-
are about how we solve that.
-
You know, I'm a proponent
of studying guaranteed income,
-
as one example,
-
conversations about how
health care gets provided
-
and other benefits.
-
Those conversations are happening,
-
and we're at a time
where we must figure that out.
-
It is the crisis of our era.
-
And my point of view
after talking to people
-
is that we may do that,
-
and it still might not be enough.
-
Because what we need to do
from the beginning is understand
-
what it is about work
that gives people dignity,
-
so they can live the lives
that they want to live.
-
And so that concept of dignity is ...
-
it's difficult to get your hands around,
-
because when many people hear it --
especially, to be honest, rich people --
-
they hear "meaning."
-
They hear "My work is important to me."
-
And again, if you survey people
and you ask them,
-
"How important is it to you
that your work be important to you?"
-
only people who make
150,000 dollars a year or more
-
say that it is important to them
that their work be important.
-
BF: Meaning, meaningful?
-
RB: Just defined as,
"Is your work important to you?"
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Whatever somebody took that to mean.
-
And yet, of course dignity is essential.
-
We talked to truck drivers who said,
-
"I saw my cousin drive, and I got
on the open road and it was amazing.
-
And I started making more money
than people who went to college."
-
Then they'd get to the end
of their thought and say something like,
-
"People need their fruits
and vegetables in the morning,
-
and I'm the guy who gets it to them."
-
We talked to somebody who, in addition
to his job, was caring for his aunt.
-
He was making plenty of money.
-
At one point we just asked,
-
"What is it about caring for your aunt?
Can't you just pay somebody to do it?"
-
He said, "My aunt doesn't want
somebody we pay for.
-
My aunt wants me."
-
So there was this concept there
of being needed.
-
If you study the word
"dignity," it's fascinating.
-
It's one of the oldest words
in the English language, from antiquity.
-
And it has two meanings:
-
one is self-worth,
-
and the other is that something
is suitable, it's fitting,
-
meaning that you're part
of something greater than yourself,
-
and it connects to some broader whole.
-
In other words, that you're needed.
-
BF: So how do you answer this question,
-
this concept that we don't pay teachers,
-
and we don't pay eldercare workers,
-
and we don't pay people
who really care for people
-
and are needed, enough?
-
RB: Well, the good news is,
people are finally asking the question.
-
So as AI investors,
we often get phone calls
-
from foundations or CEOs
and boardrooms saying,
-
"What do we do about this?"
-
And they used to be asking,
-
"What do we do about
introducing automation?"
-
And now they're asking,
"What do we do about self-worth?"
-
And they know that the employees
who work for them
-
who have a spouse who cares for somebody,
-
that dignity is essential
to their ability to just do their job.
-
I think there's two kinds of answers:
-
there's the money side
of just making your life work.
-
That's stability. You need to eat.
-
And then you think about
our culture more broadly,
-
and you ask: Who do we make into heroes?
-
And, you know, what I want
is to see the magazine cover
-
that is the person
who is the heroic caregiver.
-
Or the Netflix series
that dramatizes the person
-
who makes all of our other lives work
so we can do the things we do.
-
Let's make heroes out of those people.
-
That's the Netflix show
that I would binge.
-
And we've had chroniclers
of this before --
-
Studs Terkel,
-
the oral history of the working
experience in the United States.
-
And what we need is the experience
of needing one another
-
and being connected to each other.
-
Maybe that's the answer
for how we all fit as a society.
-
And the thought exercise, to me, is:
-
if you were to go back 100 years
and have people --
-
my grandparents, great-grandparents,
a tailor, worked in a mine --
-
they look at what all of us do
for a living and say, "That's not work."
-
We sit there and type and talk,
and there's no danger of getting hurt.
-
And my guess is that if you were
to imagine 100 years from now,
-
we'll still be doing things
for each other.
-
We'll still need one another.
-
And we just will think of it as work.
-
The entire thing I'm trying to say
-
is that dignity should not
just be about having a job.
-
Because if you say
you need a job to have dignity,
-
which many people say,
-
the second you say that,
you say to all the parents
-
and all the teachers
and all the caregivers
-
that all of a sudden,
-
because they're not being paid
for what they're doing,
-
it somehow lacks this
essential human quality.
-
To me, that's the great
puzzle of our time:
-
Can we figure out how to provide
that stability throughout life,
-
and then can we figure out
how to create an inclusive,
-
not just racially, gender,
but multigenerationally inclusive,
-
I mean -- every different
human experience included
-
in this way of understanding
how we can be needed by one another.
-
BF: Thank you.
RB: Thank you.
-
BF: Thank you very much
for your participation.
-
(Applause)