0:00:00.151,0:00:06.087
Bryn Freedman: You're a guy whose company[br]funds these AI programs and invests.

0:00:06.111,0:00:11.156
So why should we trust you[br]to not have a bias

0:00:11.180,0:00:14.356
and tell us something really useful[br]for the rest of us

0:00:14.380,0:00:16.684
about the future of work?

0:00:17.046,0:00:18.537
Roy Bahat: Yes, I am.

0:00:18.561,0:00:21.549
And when you wake up in the morning[br]and you read the newspaper

0:00:21.573,0:00:25.022
and it says, "The robots are coming,[br]they may take all our jobs,"

0:00:25.046,0:00:27.577
as a start-up investor[br]focused on the future of work,

0:00:27.601,0:00:29.918
our fund was the first one to say

0:00:29.942,0:00:32.252
artificial intelligence[br]should be a focus for us.

0:00:32.276,0:00:34.529
So I woke up one morning[br]and read that and said,

0:00:34.553,0:00:38.000
"Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me.[br]That's me who's doing that."

0:00:38.839,0:00:40.863
And then I thought: wait a minute.

0:00:40.887,0:00:43.299
If things continue,

0:00:43.323,0:00:48.577
then maybe not only will the start-ups[br]in which we invest struggle

0:00:48.601,0:00:51.162
because there won't be people to have jobs

0:00:51.186,0:00:54.048
to pay for the things[br]that they make and buy them,

0:00:54.072,0:00:56.989
but our economy and society[br]might struggle, too.

0:00:57.013,0:01:00.234
And look, I should be the guy[br]who sits here and tells you,

0:01:00.258,0:01:03.389
"Everything is going to be fine.[br]It's all going to work out great.

0:01:03.413,0:01:05.445
Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine,

0:01:05.469,0:01:07.605
years later, there's more[br]tellers in banks."

0:01:07.629,0:01:08.787
It's true.

0:01:08.811,0:01:12.127
And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,[br]"This is going to accelerate.

0:01:12.151,0:01:15.411
And if it does accelerate,[br]there's a chance the center doesn't hold."

0:01:15.435,0:01:17.918
But I figured somebody must know[br]the answer to this;

0:01:17.942,0:01:19.617
there are so many ideas out there.

0:01:19.641,0:01:22.695
And I read all the books[br]and I went to the conferences,

0:01:22.719,0:01:28.363
and at one point, we counted more than[br]100 efforts to study the future of work.

0:01:28.387,0:01:31.244
And it was a frustrating experience,

0:01:31.268,0:01:35.283
because I'd hear the same back-and-forth[br]over and over again:

0:01:35.307,0:01:37.085
"The robots are coming!"

0:01:37.109,0:01:38.712
And then somebody else would say,

0:01:38.736,0:01:42.300
"Oh, don't worry about that, they've[br]always said that and it turns out OK."

0:01:42.324,0:01:43.713
Then somebody else would say,

0:01:43.737,0:01:46.469
"Well, it's really about the meaning[br]of your job, anyway."

0:01:46.493,0:01:49.276
And then everybody would shrug[br]and go off and have a drink.

0:01:49.300,0:01:52.402
And it felt like there was this[br]Kabuki theater of this discussion,

0:01:52.426,0:01:54.301
where nobody was talking to each other.

0:01:54.325,0:01:57.811
And many of the people that I knew[br]and worked with in the technology world

0:01:57.835,0:01:59.510
were not speaking to policy makers,

0:01:59.534,0:02:01.603
the policy makers[br]were not speaking to them.

0:02:01.627,0:02:05.809
And so we partnered with a nonpartisan[br]think tank NGO called New America

0:02:05.833,0:02:07.166
to study this issue.

0:02:07.190,0:02:09.538
And we brought together a group of people,

0:02:09.562,0:02:12.992
including an AI czar[br]at a technology company

0:02:13.016,0:02:14.888
and a video game designer

0:02:14.912,0:02:16.395
and a heartland conservative

0:02:16.419,0:02:17.663
and a Wall Street investor

0:02:17.687,0:02:19.647
and a socialist magazine editor --

0:02:19.671,0:02:22.639
literally, all in the same room;[br]it was occasionally awkward --

0:02:22.663,0:02:25.244
to try to figure out[br]what is it that will happen here.

0:02:25.268,0:02:28.088
The question we asked was simple.

0:02:28.704,0:02:32.117
It was: What is the effect of technology[br]on work going to be?

0:02:32.141,0:02:33.768
And we looked out 10 to 20 years,

0:02:33.792,0:02:37.276
because we wanted to look out far enough[br]that there could be real change,

0:02:37.300,0:02:41.269
but soon enough that we weren't talking[br]about teleportation or anything like that.

0:02:41.293,0:02:42.671
And we recognized --

0:02:42.695,0:02:45.744
and I think every year[br]we're reminded of this in the world --

0:02:45.768,0:02:47.975
that predicting what's[br]going to happen is hard,

0:02:47.999,0:02:50.855
so instead of predicting,[br]there are other things you can do.

0:02:50.879,0:02:53.675
You can try to imagine[br]alternate possible futures,

0:02:53.699,0:02:54.851
which is what we did.

0:02:54.875,0:02:56.633
We did a scenario-planning exercise,

0:02:56.657,0:02:59.723
and we imagined cases[br]where no job is safe.

0:02:59.747,0:03:02.850
We imagined cases where every job is safe.

0:03:02.874,0:03:06.913
And we imagined every[br]distinct possibility we could.

0:03:06.937,0:03:10.220
And the result, which really surprised us,

0:03:10.244,0:03:13.942
was when you think through those futures[br]and you think what should we do,

0:03:13.966,0:03:17.881
the answers about what we should do[br]actually turn out to be the same,

0:03:17.905,0:03:19.401
no matter what happens.

0:03:19.425,0:03:23.167
And the irony of looking out[br]10 to 20 years into the future is,

0:03:23.191,0:03:25.600
you realize that the things[br]we want to act on

0:03:25.624,0:03:27.585
are actually already happening right now.

0:03:27.609,0:03:30.395
The automation is right now,[br]the future is right now.

0:03:30.419,0:03:33.014
BF: So what does that mean,[br]and what does that tell us?

0:03:33.038,0:03:35.736
If the future is now, what is it[br]that we should be doing,

0:03:35.760,0:03:37.630
and what should we be thinking about?

0:03:37.654,0:03:39.734
RB: We have to understand[br]the problem first.

0:03:39.758,0:03:43.797
And so the data are that as the economy[br]becomes more productive

0:03:43.821,0:03:45.966
and individual workers[br]become more productive,

0:03:45.990,0:03:47.252
their wages haven't risen.

0:03:47.276,0:03:50.466
If you look at the proportion[br]of prime working-age men,

0:03:50.490,0:03:51.982
in the United States at least,

0:03:52.006,0:03:55.755
who work now versus in 1960,

0:03:55.779,0:03:58.247
we have three times[br]as many men not working.

0:03:58.271,0:03:59.715
And then you hear the stories.

0:03:59.739,0:04:02.178
I sat down with a group[br]of Walmart workers and said,

0:04:02.202,0:04:05.845
"What do you think about this cashier,[br]this futuristic self-checkout thing?"

0:04:05.869,0:04:09.074
They said, "That's nice, but have[br]you heard about the cash recycler?

0:04:09.098,0:04:11.471
That's a machine that's being[br]installed right now,

0:04:11.495,0:04:14.132
and is eliminating two jobs[br]at every Walmart right now."

0:04:14.156,0:04:17.199
And so we just thought, "Geez. We don't[br]understand the problem."

0:04:17.223,0:04:20.501
And so we looked at the voices[br]that were the ones that were excluded,

0:04:20.525,0:04:23.125
which is all of the people[br]affected by this change.

0:04:23.149,0:04:24.736
And we decided to listen to them,

0:04:24.760,0:04:26.744
sort of "automation and its discontents."

0:04:26.768,0:04:29.171
And I've spent the last[br]couple of years doing that.

0:04:29.195,0:04:31.591
I've been to Flint, Michigan[br]and Youngstown, Ohio,

0:04:31.615,0:04:34.046
talking about entrepreneurs,[br]trying to make it work

0:04:34.070,0:04:37.018
in a very different environment[br]from New York or San Francisco

0:04:37.042,0:04:38.527
or London or Tokyo.

0:04:38.551,0:04:40.148
I've been to prisons twice,

0:04:40.172,0:04:43.053
to talk to inmates about[br]their jobs after they leave.

0:04:43.077,0:04:46.824
I've sat down with truck drivers[br]to ask them about the self-driving truck,

0:04:46.848,0:04:49.302
with people who, in addition[br]to their full-time job,

0:04:49.326,0:04:51.110
care for an aging relative.

0:04:51.134,0:04:52.698
And when you talk to people,

0:04:52.722,0:04:55.673
there were two themes[br]that came out loud and clear.

0:04:56.285,0:05:01.129
The first one was that people[br]are less looking for more money

0:05:01.153,0:05:04.431
or get out of the fear[br]of the robot taking their job,

0:05:04.455,0:05:06.351
and they just want something stable.

0:05:06.375,0:05:07.915
They want something predictable.

0:05:07.939,0:05:11.614
So if you survey people and ask them[br]what they want out of work,

0:05:11.638,0:05:15.118
for everybody who makes[br]less than 150,000 dollars a year,

0:05:15.142,0:05:18.498
they'll take a more stable[br]and secure income, on average,

0:05:18.522,0:05:20.387
over earning more money.

0:05:20.411,0:05:22.625
And if you think about the fact that

0:05:22.649,0:05:26.037
not only for all of the people[br]across the earth who don't earn a living,

0:05:26.061,0:05:27.252
but for those who do,

0:05:27.276,0:05:30.236
the vast majority earn a different[br]amount from month to month

0:05:30.260,0:05:31.474
and have an instability,

0:05:31.498,0:05:32.895
all of a sudden you realize,

0:05:32.919,0:05:35.417
"Wait a minute. We have[br]a real problem on our hands."

0:05:35.441,0:05:39.164
And the second thing they say,[br]which took us a longer time to understand,

0:05:39.188,0:05:41.566
is they say they want dignity.

0:05:41.894,0:05:47.006
And that concept[br]of self-worth through work

0:05:47.030,0:05:49.641
emerged again and again and again[br]in our conversations.

0:05:49.665,0:05:52.649
BF: So, I certainly[br]appreciate this answer.

0:05:52.673,0:05:54.144
But you can't eat dignity,

0:05:54.168,0:05:57.053
you can't clothe your children[br]with self-esteem.

0:05:57.077,0:06:00.565
So, what is that, how do you reconcile --

0:06:00.589,0:06:02.430
what does dignity mean,

0:06:02.454,0:06:06.117
and what is the relationship[br]between dignity and stability?

0:06:06.141,0:06:08.625
RB: You can't eat dignity.[br]You need stability first.

0:06:08.649,0:06:09.887
And the good news is,

0:06:09.911,0:06:12.666
many of the conversations[br]that are happening right now

0:06:12.690,0:06:14.252
are about how we solve that.

0:06:14.276,0:06:18.141
You know, I'm a proponent[br]of studying guaranteed income,

0:06:18.165,0:06:19.442
as one example,

0:06:19.466,0:06:21.754
conversations about how[br]health care gets provided

0:06:21.778,0:06:23.017
and other benefits.

0:06:23.041,0:06:24.818
Those conversations are happening,

0:06:24.842,0:06:27.238
and we're at a time[br]where we must figure that out.

0:06:27.262,0:06:28.903
It is the crisis of our era.

0:06:28.927,0:06:31.839
And my point of view[br]after talking to people

0:06:31.863,0:06:33.903
is that we may do that,

0:06:33.927,0:06:35.507
and it still might not be enough.

0:06:35.531,0:06:38.338
Because what we need to do[br]from the beginning is understand

0:06:38.362,0:06:40.602
what it is about work[br]that gives people dignity,

0:06:40.626,0:06:43.966
so they can live the lives[br]that they want to live.

0:06:43.990,0:06:48.005
And so that concept of dignity is ...

0:06:48.029,0:06:49.961
it's difficult to get your hands around,

0:06:49.985,0:06:53.584
because when many people hear it --[br]especially, to be honest, rich people --

0:06:53.608,0:06:54.764
they hear "meaning."

0:06:54.788,0:06:56.694
They hear "My work is important to me."

0:06:56.718,0:07:00.355
And again, if you survey people[br]and you ask them,

0:07:00.379,0:07:03.879
"How important is it to you[br]that your work be important to you?"

0:07:03.903,0:07:07.204
only people who make[br]150,000 dollars a year or more

0:07:07.228,0:07:11.451
say that it is important to them[br]that their work be important.

0:07:12.050,0:07:13.275
BF: Meaning, meaningful?

0:07:13.744,0:07:16.621
RB: Just defined as,[br]"Is your work important to you?"

0:07:17.950,0:07:19.666
Whatever somebody took that to mean.

0:07:19.690,0:07:21.604
And yet, of course dignity is essential.

0:07:21.628,0:07:23.348
We talked to truck drivers who said,

0:07:23.372,0:07:27.336
"I saw my cousin drive, and I got[br]on the open road and it was amazing.

0:07:27.360,0:07:30.430
And I started making more money[br]than people who went to college."

0:07:30.454,0:07:33.628
Then they'd get to the end[br]of their thought and say something like,

0:07:33.652,0:07:36.297
"People need their fruits[br]and vegetables in the morning,

0:07:36.321,0:07:38.120
and I'm the guy who gets it to them."

0:07:38.144,0:07:41.684
We talked to somebody who, in addition[br]to his job, was caring for his aunt.

0:07:41.708,0:07:43.207
He was making plenty of money.

0:07:43.231,0:07:44.548
At one point we just asked,

0:07:44.572,0:07:48.834
"What is it about caring for your aunt?[br]Can't you just pay somebody to do it?"

0:07:48.858,0:07:51.351
He said, "My aunt doesn't want[br]somebody we pay for.

0:07:51.375,0:07:52.577
My aunt wants me."

0:07:52.601,0:07:56.268
So there was this concept there[br]of being needed.

0:07:56.292,0:07:58.749
If you study the word[br]"dignity," it's fascinating.

0:07:58.773,0:08:02.048
It's one of the oldest words[br]in the English language, from antiquity.

0:08:02.072,0:08:03.224
And it has two meanings:

0:08:03.248,0:08:04.402
one is self-worth,

0:08:04.426,0:08:08.653
and the other is that something[br]is suitable, it's fitting,

0:08:08.677,0:08:11.535
meaning that you're part[br]of something greater than yourself,

0:08:11.559,0:08:13.382
and it connects to some broader whole.

0:08:13.406,0:08:15.123
In other words, that you're needed.

0:08:15.147,0:08:17.021
BF: So how do you answer this question,

0:08:17.045,0:08:19.095
this concept that we don't pay teachers,

0:08:19.119,0:08:21.387
and we don't pay eldercare workers,

0:08:21.411,0:08:24.537
and we don't pay people[br]who really care for people

0:08:24.561,0:08:26.847
and are needed, enough?

0:08:26.871,0:08:30.053
RB: Well, the good news is,[br]people are finally asking the question.

0:08:30.077,0:08:32.380
So as AI investors,[br]we often get phone calls

0:08:32.404,0:08:35.134
from foundations or CEOs[br]and boardrooms saying,

0:08:35.158,0:08:36.463
"What do we do about this?"

0:08:36.487,0:08:37.796
And they used to be asking,

0:08:37.820,0:08:39.932
"What do we do about[br]introducing automation?"

0:08:39.956,0:08:42.654
And now they're asking,[br]"What do we do about self-worth?"

0:08:42.678,0:08:45.101
And they know that the employees[br]who work for them

0:08:45.125,0:08:47.371
who have a spouse who cares for somebody,

0:08:47.395,0:08:50.918
that dignity is essential[br]to their ability to just do their job.

0:08:50.942,0:08:52.718
I think there's two kinds of answers:

0:08:52.742,0:08:55.268
there's the money side[br]of just making your life work.

0:08:55.292,0:08:57.617
That's stability. You need to eat.

0:08:57.641,0:08:59.978
And then you think about[br]our culture more broadly,

0:09:00.002,0:09:02.680
and you ask: Who do we make into heroes?

0:09:02.704,0:09:07.164
And, you know, what I want[br]is to see the magazine cover

0:09:07.188,0:09:09.940
that is the person[br]who is the heroic caregiver.

0:09:10.292,0:09:13.022
Or the Netflix series[br]that dramatizes the person

0:09:13.046,0:09:16.283
who makes all of our other lives work[br]so we can do the things we do.

0:09:16.307,0:09:18.130
Let's make heroes out of those people.

0:09:18.154,0:09:20.187
That's the Netflix show[br]that I would binge.

0:09:20.211,0:09:22.490
And we've had chroniclers[br]of this before --

0:09:22.514,0:09:23.728
Studs Terkel,

0:09:23.752,0:09:27.458
the oral history of the working[br]experience in the United States.

0:09:27.482,0:09:30.634
And what we need is the experience[br]of needing one another

0:09:30.658,0:09:32.283
and being connected to each other.

0:09:32.307,0:09:35.347
Maybe that's the answer[br]for how we all fit as a society.

0:09:35.371,0:09:37.093
And the thought exercise, to me, is:

0:09:37.117,0:09:39.695
if you were to go back 100 years[br]and have people --

0:09:39.719,0:09:43.490
my grandparents, great-grandparents,[br]a tailor, worked in a mine --

0:09:43.514,0:09:47.339
they look at what all of us do[br]for a living and say, "That's not work."

0:09:47.363,0:09:51.132
We sit there and type and talk,[br]and there's no danger of getting hurt.

0:09:51.526,0:09:55.017
And my guess is that if you were[br]to imagine 100 years from now,

0:09:55.041,0:09:57.053
we'll still be doing things[br]for each other.

0:09:57.077,0:09:58.483
We'll still need one another.

0:09:58.507,0:10:00.514
And we just will think of it as work.

0:10:00.538,0:10:02.212
The entire thing I'm trying to say

0:10:02.236,0:10:05.109
is that dignity should not[br]just be about having a job.

0:10:05.133,0:10:07.990
Because if you say[br]you need a job to have dignity,

0:10:08.014,0:10:09.458
which many people say,

0:10:09.482,0:10:12.299
the second you say that,[br]you say to all the parents

0:10:12.323,0:10:14.768
and all the teachers[br]and all the caregivers

0:10:14.792,0:10:15.966
that all of a sudden,

0:10:15.990,0:10:18.537
because they're not being paid[br]for what they're doing,

0:10:18.561,0:10:20.854
it somehow lacks this[br]essential human quality.

0:10:20.878,0:10:22.982
To me, that's the great[br]puzzle of our time:

0:10:23.006,0:10:26.117
Can we figure out how to provide[br]that stability throughout life,

0:10:26.141,0:10:28.674
and then can we figure out[br]how to create an inclusive,

0:10:28.698,0:10:32.965
not just racially, gender,[br]but multigenerationally inclusive,

0:10:32.989,0:10:37.868
I mean -- every different[br]human experience included

0:10:37.892,0:10:41.095
in this way of understanding[br]how we can be needed by one another.

0:10:41.119,0:10:42.485
BF: Thank you.[br]RB: Thank you.

0:10:42.509,0:10:44.706
BF: Thank you very much[br]for your participation.

0:10:44.730,0:10:45.880
(Applause)