Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong
-
0:01 - 0:03So I'd like you to imagine for a moment
-
0:03 - 0:06that you're a soldier
in the heat of battle. -
0:07 - 0:10Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier
or a medieval archer -
0:10 - 0:12or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.
-
0:12 - 0:16Regardless of your time and place,
there are some things that are constant. -
0:16 - 0:18Your adrenaline is elevated,
-
0:18 - 0:23and your actions are stemming
from these deeply ingrained reflexes, -
0:23 - 0:28reflexes rooted in a need
to protect yourself and your side -
0:28 - 0:29and to defeat the enemy.
-
0:31 - 0:34So now, I'd like you to imagine
playing a very different role, -
0:34 - 0:36that of the scout.
-
0:36 - 0:39The scout's job is not
to attack or defend. -
0:39 - 0:42The scout's job is to understand.
-
0:42 - 0:44The scout is the one going out,
-
0:44 - 0:48mapping the terrain,
identifying potential obstacles. -
0:48 - 0:52And the scout may hope to learn
that, say, there's a bridge -
0:52 - 0:54in a convenient location across a river.
-
0:54 - 0:57But above all, the scout
wants to know what's really there, -
0:57 - 0:59as accurately as possible.
-
1:00 - 1:05And in a real, actual army, both
the soldier and the scout are essential. -
1:05 - 1:11But you can also think of each
of these roles as a mindset -- -
1:11 - 1:14a metaphor for how all of us
process information and ideas -
1:14 - 1:16in our daily lives.
-
1:16 - 1:20What I'm going to argue today
is that having good judgment, -
1:20 - 1:23making accurate predictions,
making good decisions, -
1:23 - 1:26is mostly about which mindset you're in.
-
1:27 - 1:30To illustrate these mindsets in action,
-
1:30 - 1:33I'm going to take you back
to 19th-century France, -
1:33 - 1:36where this innocuous-looking
piece of paper -
1:36 - 1:39launched one of the biggest
political scandals in history. -
1:40 - 1:44It was discovered in 1894
by officers in the French general staff. -
1:45 - 1:47It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
-
1:47 - 1:49but when they pieced it back together,
-
1:49 - 1:51they discovered
that someone in their ranks -
1:51 - 1:54had been selling
military secrets to Germany. -
1:54 - 1:57So they launched a big investigation,
-
1:57 - 2:01and their suspicions
quickly converged on this man, -
2:01 - 2:02Alfred Dreyfus.
-
2:03 - 2:04He had a sterling record,
-
2:04 - 2:08no past history of wrongdoing,
no motive as far as they could tell. -
2:08 - 2:13But Dreyfus was the only
Jewish officer at that rank in the army, -
2:13 - 2:18and unfortunately at this time,
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic. -
2:18 - 2:21They compared Dreyfus's handwriting
to that on the memo -
2:21 - 2:23and concluded that it was a match,
-
2:23 - 2:26even though outside
professional handwriting experts -
2:26 - 2:28were much less confident
in the similarity, -
2:28 - 2:30but never mind that.
-
2:30 - 2:32They went and searched
Dreyfus's apartment, -
2:32 - 2:33looking for any signs of espionage.
-
2:33 - 2:36They went through his files,
and they didn't find anything. -
2:36 - 2:40This just convinced them more
that Dreyfus was not only guilty, -
2:40 - 2:43but sneaky as well, because clearly
he had hidden all of the evidence -
2:43 - 2:45before they had managed to get to it.
-
2:45 - 2:48Next, they went and looked
through his personal history -
2:48 - 2:50for any incriminating details.
-
2:50 - 2:52They talked to his teachers,
-
2:52 - 2:55they found that he had studied
foreign languages in school, -
2:55 - 2:59which clearly showed a desire
to conspire with foreign governments -
2:59 - 3:00later in life.
-
3:00 - 3:06His teachers also said that Dreyfus
was known for having a good memory, -
3:06 - 3:08which was highly suspicious, right?
-
3:08 - 3:11You know, because a spy
has to remember a lot of things. -
3:12 - 3:16So the case went to trial,
and Dreyfus was found guilty. -
3:17 - 3:20Afterwards, they took him out
into this public square -
3:20 - 3:24and ritualistically tore
his insignia from his uniform -
3:24 - 3:26and broke his sword in two.
-
3:26 - 3:28This was called
the Degradation of Dreyfus. -
3:29 - 3:31And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment -
3:31 - 3:34on the aptly named Devil's Island,
-
3:34 - 3:37which is this barren rock
off the coast of South America. -
3:38 - 3:41So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone, -
3:41 - 3:44writing letters and letters
to the French government -
3:44 - 3:47begging them to reopen his case
so they could discover his innocence. -
3:48 - 3:51But for the most part,
France considered the matter closed. -
3:51 - 3:56One thing that's really interesting
to me about the Dreyfus Affair -
3:56 - 3:59is this question of why the officers
were so convinced -
3:59 - 4:01that Dreyfus was guilty.
-
4:02 - 4:04I mean, you might even assume
that they were setting him up, -
4:04 - 4:06that they were intentionally framing him.
-
4:06 - 4:09But historians don't think
that's what happened. -
4:09 - 4:10As far as we can tell,
-
4:10 - 4:14the officers genuinely believed
that the case against Dreyfus was strong. -
4:14 - 4:17Which makes you wonder:
-
4:17 - 4:19What does it say about the human mind
-
4:19 - 4:21that we can find such paltry evidence
-
4:21 - 4:23to be compelling enough to convict a man?
-
4:24 - 4:28Well, this is a case of what scientists
call "motivated reasoning." -
4:29 - 4:32It's this phenomenon in which
our unconscious motivations, -
4:32 - 4:34our desires and fears,
-
4:34 - 4:36shape the way we interpret information.
-
4:36 - 4:40Some information, some ideas,
feel like our allies. -
4:40 - 4:42We want them to win.
We want to defend them. -
4:42 - 4:45And other information
or ideas are the enemy, -
4:45 - 4:47and we want to shoot them down.
-
4:47 - 4:51So this is why I call
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset." -
4:52 - 4:55Probably most of you have never persecuted
-
4:55 - 4:57a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
-
4:57 - 4:59I assume,
-
4:59 - 5:04but maybe you've followed sports
or politics, so you might have noticed -
5:04 - 5:08that when the referee judges
that your team committed a foul, -
5:08 - 5:09for example,
-
5:09 - 5:12you're highly motivated
to find reasons why he's wrong. -
5:12 - 5:16But if he judges that the other team
committed a foul -- awesome! -
5:16 - 5:18That's a good call,
let's not examine it too closely. -
5:19 - 5:21Or, maybe you've read
an article or a study -
5:21 - 5:24that examined some controversial policy,
-
5:24 - 5:25like capital punishment.
-
5:26 - 5:28And, as researchers have demonstrated,
-
5:28 - 5:30if you support capital punishment
-
5:30 - 5:32and the study shows
that it's not effective, -
5:32 - 5:35then you're highly motivated
to find all the reasons -
5:35 - 5:38why the study was poorly designed.
-
5:38 - 5:40But if it shows
that capital punishment works, -
5:40 - 5:41it's a good study.
-
5:41 - 5:44And vice versa: if you don't
support capital punishment, same thing. -
5:44 - 5:47Our judgment is strongly
influenced, unconsciously, -
5:47 - 5:49by which side we want to win.
-
5:50 - 5:52And this is ubiquitous.
-
5:52 - 5:55This shapes how we think
about our health, our relationships, -
5:55 - 5:57how we decide how to vote,
-
5:57 - 5:59what we consider fair or ethical.
-
6:00 - 6:03What's most scary to me
about motivated reasoning -
6:03 - 6:04or soldier mindset,
-
6:04 - 6:05is how unconscious it is.
-
6:05 - 6:09We can think we're being
objective and fair-minded -
6:09 - 6:12and still wind up ruining the life
of an innocent man. -
6:13 - 6:16However, fortunately for Dreyfus,
his story is not over. -
6:16 - 6:17This is Colonel Picquart.
-
6:17 - 6:20He's another high-ranking officer
in the French Army, -
6:20 - 6:23and like most people,
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty. -
6:23 - 6:27Also like most people in the army,
he was at least casually anti-Semitic. -
6:27 - 6:31But at a certain point,
Picquart began to suspect: -
6:31 - 6:34"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"
-
6:34 - 6:37What happened was,
he had discovered evidence -
6:37 - 6:39that the spying for Germany had continued,
-
6:39 - 6:41even after Dreyfus was in prison.
-
6:42 - 6:45And he had also discovered
that another officer in the army -
6:45 - 6:47had handwriting that perfectly
matched the memo, -
6:47 - 6:50much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.
-
6:50 - 6:53So he brought these discoveries
to his superiors, -
6:54 - 6:58but to his dismay,
they either didn't care -
6:58 - 7:01or came up with elaborate rationalizations
to explain his findings, -
7:01 - 7:07like, "Well, all you've really shown,
Picquart, is that there's another spy -
7:07 - 7:09who learned how to mimic
Dreyfus's handwriting, -
7:09 - 7:13and he picked up the torch of spying
after Dreyfus left. -
7:13 - 7:15But Dreyfus is still guilty."
-
7:16 - 7:19Eventually, Picquart managed
to get Dreyfus exonerated. -
7:19 - 7:20But it took him 10 years,
-
7:20 - 7:23and for part of that time,
he himself was in prison -
7:23 - 7:25for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
-
7:26 - 7:32A lot of people feel like Picquart
can't really be the hero of this story -
7:33 - 7:37because he was an anti-Semite
and that's bad, which I agree with. -
7:37 - 7:42But personally, for me,
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic -
7:42 - 7:45actually makes his actions more admirable,
-
7:45 - 7:48because he had the same prejudices,
the same reasons to be biased -
7:48 - 7:50as his fellow officers,
-
7:50 - 7:54but his motivation to find the truth
and uphold it trumped all of that. -
7:55 - 7:56So to me,
-
7:56 - 8:00Picquart is a poster child
for what I call "scout mindset." -
8:01 - 8:05It's the drive not to make
one idea win or another lose, -
8:05 - 8:07but just to see what's really there
-
8:07 - 8:09as honestly and accurately as you can,
-
8:09 - 8:12even if it's not pretty
or convenient or pleasant. -
8:13 - 8:17This mindset is what
I'm personally passionate about. -
8:17 - 8:22And I've spent the last few years
examining and trying to figure out -
8:22 - 8:24what causes scout mindset.
-
8:24 - 8:27Why are some people, sometimes at least,
-
8:27 - 8:31able to cut through their own prejudices
and biases and motivations -
8:31 - 8:33and just try to see the facts
and the evidence -
8:33 - 8:35as objectively as they can?
-
8:36 - 8:39And the answer is emotional.
-
8:39 - 8:43So, just as soldier mindset
is rooted in emotions -
8:43 - 8:46like defensiveness or tribalism,
-
8:47 - 8:48scout mindset is, too.
-
8:48 - 8:50It's just rooted in different emotions.
-
8:50 - 8:53For example, scouts are curious.
-
8:53 - 8:57They're more likely to say
they feel pleasure -
8:57 - 8:59when they learn new information
-
8:59 - 9:01or an itch to solve a puzzle.
-
9:02 - 9:05They're more likely to feel intrigued
when they encounter something -
9:05 - 9:07that contradicts their expectations.
-
9:07 - 9:09Scouts also have different values.
-
9:09 - 9:12They're more likely to say
they think it's virtuous -
9:12 - 9:14to test your own beliefs,
-
9:14 - 9:18and they're less likely to say
that someone who changes his mind -
9:18 - 9:19seems weak.
-
9:19 - 9:21And above all, scouts are grounded,
-
9:21 - 9:25which means their self-worth as a person
-
9:25 - 9:30isn't tied to how right or wrong
they are about any particular topic. -
9:30 - 9:33So they can believe
that capital punishment works. -
9:33 - 9:36If studies come out showing
that it doesn't, they can say, -
9:36 - 9:40"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid." -
9:42 - 9:46This cluster of traits
is what researchers have found -- -
9:46 - 9:48and I've also found anecdotally --
-
9:48 - 9:50predicts good judgment.
-
9:50 - 9:54And the key takeaway I want
to leave you with about those traits -
9:54 - 9:57is that they're primarily
not about how smart you are -
9:57 - 9:59or about how much you know.
-
9:59 - 10:02In fact, they don't correlate
very much with IQ at all. -
10:03 - 10:04They're about how you feel.
-
10:05 - 10:09There's a quote that I keep
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry. -
10:09 - 10:11He's the author of "The Little Prince."
-
10:11 - 10:14He said, "If you want to build a ship,
-
10:14 - 10:19don't drum up your men
to collect wood and give orders -
10:19 - 10:20and distribute the work.
-
10:21 - 10:25Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea." -
10:26 - 10:28In other words, I claim,
-
10:29 - 10:32if we really want to improve
our judgment as individuals -
10:32 - 10:33and as societies,
-
10:34 - 10:37what we need most
is not more instruction in logic -
10:37 - 10:41or rhetoric or probability or economics,
-
10:41 - 10:43even though those things
are quite valuable. -
10:43 - 10:46But what we most need
to use those principles well -
10:46 - 10:47is scout mindset.
-
10:47 - 10:49We need to change the way we feel.
-
10:50 - 10:54We need to learn how to feel proud
instead of ashamed -
10:54 - 10:56when we notice we might
have been wrong about something. -
10:56 - 10:59We need to learn how to feel intrigued
instead of defensive -
10:59 - 11:04when we encounter some information
that contradicts our beliefs. -
11:05 - 11:07So the question I want
to leave you with is: -
11:08 - 11:10What do you most yearn for?
-
11:11 - 11:13Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
-
11:14 - 11:18Or do you yearn to see the world
as clearly as you possibly can? -
11:18 - 11:20Thank you.
-
11:20 - 11:25(Applause)
- Title:
- Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong
- Speaker:
- Julia Galef
- Description:
-
Perspective is everything, especially when it comes to examining your beliefs. Are you a soldier, prone to defending your viewpoint at all costs -- or a scout, spurred by curiosity? Julia Galef examines the motivations behind these two mindsets and how they shape the way we interpret information, interweaved with a compelling history lesson from 19th century France. When your steadfast opinions are tested, Galef asks: "What do you most yearn for? Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?"
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 11:37
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong |