0:00:00.826,0:00:03.469
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

0:00:03.493,0:00:05.873
that you're a soldier[br]in the heat of battle.

0:00:06.730,0:00:10.261
Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier[br]or a medieval archer

0:00:10.285,0:00:12.165
or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

0:00:12.189,0:00:16.443
Regardless of your time and place,[br]there are some things that are constant.

0:00:16.467,0:00:18.361
Your adrenaline is elevated,

0:00:18.385,0:00:23.194
and your actions are stemming[br]from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

0:00:23.218,0:00:27.574
reflexes rooted in a need[br]to protect yourself and your side

0:00:27.598,0:00:29.287
and to defeat the enemy.

0:00:30.826,0:00:34.363
So now, I'd like you to imagine[br]playing a very different role,

0:00:34.387,0:00:35.988
that of the scout.

0:00:36.012,0:00:39.401
The scout's job is not[br]to attack or defend.

0:00:39.425,0:00:41.820
The scout's job is to understand.

0:00:42.233,0:00:44.294
The scout is the one going out,

0:00:44.318,0:00:48.381
mapping the terrain,[br]identifying potential obstacles.

0:00:48.405,0:00:51.981
And the scout may hope to learn[br]that, say, there's a bridge

0:00:52.005,0:00:54.339
in a convenient location across a river.

0:00:54.363,0:00:57.410
But above all, the scout[br]wants to know what's really there,

0:00:57.434,0:00:59.027
as accurately as possible.

0:01:00.195,0:01:05.241
And in a real, actual army, both[br]the soldier and the scout are essential.

0:01:05.265,0:01:10.575
But you can also think of each[br]of these roles as a mindset --

0:01:10.599,0:01:14.226
a metaphor for how all of us[br]process information and ideas

0:01:14.250,0:01:15.717
in our daily lives.

0:01:16.192,0:01:20.022
What I'm going to argue today[br]is that having good judgment,

0:01:20.046,0:01:23.260
making accurate predictions,[br]making good decisions,

0:01:23.284,0:01:26.042
is mostly about which mindset you're in.

0:01:26.994,0:01:29.587
To illustrate these mindsets in action,

0:01:29.611,0:01:33.095
I'm going to take you back[br]to 19th-century France,

0:01:33.119,0:01:36.102
where this innocuous-looking[br]piece of paper

0:01:36.126,0:01:39.164
launched one of the biggest[br]political scandals in history.

0:01:39.718,0:01:44.115
It was discovered in 1894[br]by officers in the French general staff.

0:01:44.616,0:01:47.308
It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

0:01:47.332,0:01:49.257
but when they pieced it back together,

0:01:49.281,0:01:51.313
they discovered[br]that someone in their ranks

0:01:51.337,0:01:53.700
had been selling[br]military secrets to Germany.

0:01:54.462,0:01:56.819
So they launched a big investigation,

0:01:56.843,0:02:00.709
and their suspicions[br]quickly converged on this man,

0:02:00.733,0:02:02.065
Alfred Dreyfus.

0:02:02.867,0:02:04.185
He had a sterling record,

0:02:04.209,0:02:07.729
no past history of wrongdoing,[br]no motive as far as they could tell.

0:02:08.342,0:02:13.460
But Dreyfus was the only[br]Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

0:02:13.484,0:02:17.659
and unfortunately at this time,[br]the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

0:02:17.683,0:02:20.905
They compared Dreyfus's handwriting[br]to that on the memo

0:02:20.929,0:02:22.866
and concluded that it was a match,

0:02:22.890,0:02:25.932
even though outside[br]professional handwriting experts

0:02:25.956,0:02:28.106
were much less confident[br]in the similarity,

0:02:28.130,0:02:29.520
but never mind that.

0:02:29.544,0:02:31.584
They went and searched[br]Dreyfus's apartment,

0:02:31.608,0:02:33.364
looking for any signs of espionage.

0:02:33.388,0:02:36.348
They went through his files,[br]and they didn't find anything.

0:02:36.372,0:02:39.506
This just convinced them more[br]that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

0:02:39.530,0:02:42.823
but sneaky as well, because clearly[br]he had hidden all of the evidence

0:02:42.847,0:02:44.696
before they had managed to get to it.

0:02:45.212,0:02:47.904
Next, they went and looked[br]through his personal history

0:02:47.928,0:02:50.229
for any incriminating details.

0:02:50.253,0:02:51.855
They talked to his teachers,

0:02:51.879,0:02:54.664
they found that he had studied[br]foreign languages in school,

0:02:54.688,0:02:58.741
which clearly showed a desire[br]to conspire with foreign governments

0:02:58.765,0:02:59.948
later in life.

0:02:59.972,0:03:05.983
His teachers also said that Dreyfus[br]was known for having a good memory,

0:03:06.007,0:03:08.119
which was highly suspicious, right?

0:03:08.143,0:03:11.483
You know, because a spy[br]has to remember a lot of things.

0:03:12.439,0:03:16.099
So the case went to trial,[br]and Dreyfus was found guilty.

0:03:16.816,0:03:20.136
Afterwards, they took him out[br]into this public square

0:03:20.160,0:03:23.884
and ritualistically tore[br]his insignia from his uniform

0:03:23.908,0:03:25.813
and broke his sword in two.

0:03:25.837,0:03:27.852
This was called[br]the Degradation of Dreyfus.

0:03:28.860,0:03:31.377
And they sentenced him[br]to life imprisonment

0:03:31.401,0:03:34.141
on the aptly named Devil's Island,

0:03:34.165,0:03:36.989
which is this barren rock[br]off the coast of South America.

0:03:37.556,0:03:41.306
So there he went,[br]and there he spent his days alone,

0:03:41.330,0:03:43.834
writing letters and letters[br]to the French government

0:03:43.858,0:03:47.166
begging them to reopen his case[br]so they could discover his innocence.

0:03:47.634,0:03:50.547
But for the most part,[br]France considered the matter closed.

0:03:51.301,0:03:55.594
One thing that's really interesting[br]to me about the Dreyfus Affair

0:03:55.618,0:03:59.396
is this question of why the officers[br]were so convinced

0:03:59.420,0:04:01.141
that Dreyfus was guilty.

0:04:01.556,0:04:04.403
I mean, you might even assume[br]that they were setting him up,

0:04:04.427,0:04:06.395
that they were intentionally framing him.

0:04:06.419,0:04:08.686
But historians don't think[br]that's what happened.

0:04:08.710,0:04:09.869
As far as we can tell,

0:04:09.893,0:04:14.130
the officers genuinely believed[br]that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

0:04:14.154,0:04:16.630
Which makes you wonder:

0:04:16.654,0:04:18.928
What does it say about the human mind

0:04:18.952,0:04:21.265
that we can find such paltry evidence

0:04:21.289,0:04:23.376
to be compelling enough to convict a man?

0:04:24.210,0:04:28.496
Well, this is a case of what scientists[br]call "motivated reasoning."

0:04:28.520,0:04:31.574
It's this phenomenon in which[br]our unconscious motivations,

0:04:31.598,0:04:33.950
our desires and fears,

0:04:33.974,0:04:36.320
shape the way we interpret information.

0:04:36.344,0:04:39.754
Some information, some ideas,[br]feel like our allies.

0:04:39.778,0:04:42.420
We want them to win.[br]We want to defend them.

0:04:42.444,0:04:44.975
And other information[br]or ideas are the enemy,

0:04:44.999,0:04:46.567
and we want to shoot them down.

0:04:47.408,0:04:51.115
So this is why I call[br]motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

0:04:51.988,0:04:54.993
Probably most of you have never persecuted

0:04:55.017,0:04:57.298
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

0:04:57.322,0:04:58.795
I assume,

0:04:58.819,0:05:03.678
but maybe you've followed sports[br]or politics, so you might have noticed

0:05:03.702,0:05:07.824
that when the referee judges[br]that your team committed a foul,

0:05:07.848,0:05:09.010
for example,

0:05:09.034,0:05:12.127
you're highly motivated[br]to find reasons why he's wrong.

0:05:12.482,0:05:15.594
But if he judges that the other team[br]committed a foul -- awesome!

0:05:15.618,0:05:18.180
That's a good call,[br]let's not examine it too closely.

0:05:18.792,0:05:20.909
Or, maybe you've read[br]an article or a study

0:05:20.933,0:05:23.639
that examined some controversial policy,

0:05:23.663,0:05:24.879
like capital punishment.

0:05:25.735,0:05:27.852
And, as researchers have demonstrated,

0:05:27.876,0:05:29.581
if you support capital punishment

0:05:29.605,0:05:32.121
and the study shows[br]that it's not effective,

0:05:32.145,0:05:35.391
then you're highly motivated[br]to find all the reasons

0:05:35.415,0:05:37.588
why the study was poorly designed.

0:05:37.612,0:05:39.818
But if it shows[br]that capital punishment works,

0:05:39.842,0:05:41.001
it's a good study.

0:05:41.025,0:05:44.273
And vice versa: if you don't[br]support capital punishment, same thing.

0:05:44.297,0:05:47.126
Our judgment is strongly[br]influenced, unconsciously,

0:05:47.150,0:05:49.428
by which side we want to win.

0:05:50.071,0:05:51.960
And this is ubiquitous.

0:05:51.984,0:05:55.022
This shapes how we think[br]about our health, our relationships,

0:05:55.046,0:05:56.942
how we decide how to vote,

0:05:56.966,0:05:59.334
what we consider fair or ethical.

0:06:00.036,0:06:02.799
What's most scary to me[br]about motivated reasoning

0:06:02.823,0:06:03.974
or soldier mindset,

0:06:03.998,0:06:05.245
is how unconscious it is.

0:06:05.269,0:06:08.549
We can think we're being[br]objective and fair-minded

0:06:08.573,0:06:12.040
and still wind up ruining the life[br]of an innocent man.

0:06:13.008,0:06:15.891
However, fortunately for Dreyfus,[br]his story is not over.

0:06:15.915,0:06:17.283
This is Colonel Picquart.

0:06:17.307,0:06:19.851
He's another high-ranking officer[br]in the French Army,

0:06:19.875,0:06:22.504
and like most people,[br]he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

0:06:22.893,0:06:27.318
Also like most people in the army,[br]he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

0:06:27.342,0:06:30.707
But at a certain point,[br]Picquart began to suspect:

0:06:31.302,0:06:34.077
"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

0:06:34.448,0:06:36.626
What happened was,[br]he had discovered evidence

0:06:36.650,0:06:39.127
that the spying for Germany had continued,

0:06:39.151,0:06:41.126
even after Dreyfus was in prison.

0:06:41.516,0:06:44.812
And he had also discovered[br]that another officer in the army

0:06:44.836,0:06:47.409
had handwriting that perfectly[br]matched the memo,

0:06:47.433,0:06:49.794
much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

0:06:50.382,0:06:53.223
So he brought these discoveries[br]to his superiors,

0:06:54.017,0:06:57.694
but to his dismay,[br]they either didn't care

0:06:57.718,0:07:01.306
or came up with elaborate rationalizations[br]to explain his findings,

0:07:01.330,0:07:06.703
like, "Well, all you've really shown,[br]Picquart, is that there's another spy

0:07:06.727,0:07:09.100
who learned how to mimic[br]Dreyfus's handwriting,

0:07:09.124,0:07:12.664
and he picked up the torch of spying[br]after Dreyfus left.

0:07:13.148,0:07:14.798
But Dreyfus is still guilty."

0:07:15.854,0:07:18.879
Eventually, Picquart managed[br]to get Dreyfus exonerated.

0:07:18.903,0:07:20.431
But it took him 10 years,

0:07:20.455,0:07:22.986
and for part of that time,[br]he himself was in prison

0:07:23.010,0:07:25.308
for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

0:07:26.491,0:07:32.491
A lot of people feel like Picquart[br]can't really be the hero of this story

0:07:32.515,0:07:36.744
because he was an anti-Semite[br]and that's bad, which I agree with.

0:07:37.323,0:07:41.974
But personally, for me,[br]the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

0:07:41.998,0:07:44.583
actually makes his actions more admirable,

0:07:44.607,0:07:47.723
because he had the same prejudices,[br]the same reasons to be biased

0:07:47.747,0:07:49.532
as his fellow officers,

0:07:49.556,0:07:54.191
but his motivation to find the truth[br]and uphold it trumped all of that.

0:07:55.108,0:07:56.297
So to me,

0:07:56.321,0:08:00.127
Picquart is a poster child[br]for what I call "scout mindset."

0:08:00.598,0:08:04.674
It's the drive not to make[br]one idea win or another lose,

0:08:04.698,0:08:06.622
but just to see what's really there

0:08:06.646,0:08:09.121
as honestly and accurately as you can,

0:08:09.145,0:08:12.425
even if it's not pretty[br]or convenient or pleasant.

0:08:13.444,0:08:16.690
This mindset is what[br]I'm personally passionate about.

0:08:16.714,0:08:21.843
And I've spent the last few years[br]examining and trying to figure out

0:08:21.867,0:08:23.850
what causes scout mindset.

0:08:23.874,0:08:27.022
Why are some people, sometimes at least,

0:08:27.046,0:08:30.834
able to cut through their own prejudices[br]and biases and motivations

0:08:30.858,0:08:33.153
and just try to see the facts[br]and the evidence

0:08:33.177,0:08:34.650
as objectively as they can?

0:08:35.602,0:08:38.613
And the answer is emotional.

0:08:39.119,0:08:42.886
So, just as soldier mindset[br]is rooted in emotions

0:08:42.910,0:08:45.898
like defensiveness or tribalism,

0:08:46.615,0:08:47.981
scout mindset is, too.

0:08:48.005,0:08:49.991
It's just rooted in different emotions.

0:08:50.015,0:08:53.434
For example, scouts are curious.

0:08:53.458,0:08:57.004
They're more likely to say[br]they feel pleasure

0:08:57.028,0:08:58.688
when they learn new information

0:08:58.712,0:09:01.023
or an itch to solve a puzzle.

0:09:01.544,0:09:04.713
They're more likely to feel intrigued[br]when they encounter something

0:09:04.737,0:09:06.833
that contradicts their expectations.

0:09:07.206,0:09:09.183
Scouts also have different values.

0:09:09.207,0:09:12.279
They're more likely to say[br]they think it's virtuous

0:09:12.303,0:09:13.792
to test your own beliefs,

0:09:13.816,0:09:17.522
and they're less likely to say[br]that someone who changes his mind

0:09:17.546,0:09:18.808
seems weak.

0:09:18.832,0:09:20.717
And above all, scouts are grounded,

0:09:20.741,0:09:24.646
which means their self-worth as a person

0:09:24.670,0:09:30.136
isn't tied to how right or wrong[br]they are about any particular topic.

0:09:30.160,0:09:33.414
So they can believe[br]that capital punishment works.

0:09:33.438,0:09:36.251
If studies come out showing[br]that it doesn't, they can say,

0:09:36.275,0:09:40.184
"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.[br]Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

0:09:41.954,0:09:46.280
This cluster of traits[br]is what researchers have found --

0:09:46.304,0:09:48.010
and I've also found anecdotally --

0:09:48.034,0:09:49.865
predicts good judgment.

0:09:50.386,0:09:53.669
And the key takeaway I want[br]to leave you with about those traits

0:09:53.693,0:09:57.330
is that they're primarily[br]not about how smart you are

0:09:57.354,0:09:59.352
or about how much you know.

0:09:59.376,0:10:02.182
In fact, they don't correlate[br]very much with IQ at all.

0:10:02.638,0:10:04.288
They're about how you feel.

0:10:04.849,0:10:08.872
There's a quote that I keep[br]coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

0:10:08.896,0:10:10.837
He's the author of "The Little Prince."

0:10:10.861,0:10:13.630
He said, "If you want to build a ship,

0:10:14.234,0:10:18.855
don't drum up your men[br]to collect wood and give orders

0:10:18.879,0:10:20.299
and distribute the work.

0:10:20.669,0:10:25.236
Instead, teach them to yearn[br]for the vast and endless sea."

0:10:26.252,0:10:28.398
In other words, I claim,

0:10:28.850,0:10:32.010
if we really want to improve[br]our judgment as individuals

0:10:32.034,0:10:33.477
and as societies,

0:10:33.501,0:10:37.010
what we need most[br]is not more instruction in logic

0:10:37.034,0:10:40.582
or rhetoric or probability or economics,

0:10:40.606,0:10:42.689
even though those things[br]are quite valuable.

0:10:42.713,0:10:46.017
But what we most need[br]to use those principles well

0:10:46.041,0:10:47.459
is scout mindset.

0:10:47.483,0:10:49.363
We need to change the way we feel.

0:10:49.759,0:10:53.569
We need to learn how to feel proud[br]instead of ashamed

0:10:53.593,0:10:56.231
when we notice we might[br]have been wrong about something.

0:10:56.255,0:10:59.383
We need to learn how to feel intrigued[br]instead of defensive

0:10:59.407,0:11:03.650
when we encounter some information[br]that contradicts our beliefs.

0:11:04.555,0:11:07.415
So the question I want[br]to leave you with is:

0:11:07.817,0:11:09.967
What do you most yearn for?

0:11:10.771,0:11:13.398
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

0:11:14.128,0:11:17.722
Or do you yearn to see the world[br]as clearly as you possibly can?

0:11:18.352,0:11:19.503
Thank you.

0:11:19.527,0:11:24.524
(Applause)