10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet
-
0:02 - 0:04(Beeps)
-
0:04 - 0:06[Countdown]
-
0:06 - 0:07(Clapboard claps)
-
0:08 - 0:12Ten years is a long time
for us humans on earth. -
0:12 - 0:14Ten turns around the sun.
-
0:14 - 0:17When I was on the TED stage a decade ago,
-
0:17 - 0:19I talked about planetary boundaries
-
0:19 - 0:24that keep our planet in a state
that allowed humanity to prosper. -
0:24 - 0:27The main point is that
once you transgress one, -
0:27 - 0:29the risks start multiplying.
-
0:30 - 0:32The planetary boundaries
are all deeply connected, -
0:32 - 0:36but climate, alongside biodiversity,
are core boundaries. -
0:36 - 0:38They impact on all others.
-
0:38 - 0:42Back then we really
thought we had more time. -
0:42 - 0:44The warning lights were on, absolutely,
-
0:44 - 0:48but no unstoppable change
had been triggered. -
0:48 - 0:51Since my talk, we have increasing evidence
-
0:51 - 0:53that we are rapidly moving away
-
0:53 - 0:56from the safe operating
space for humanity on earth. -
0:56 - 0:59Climate has reached a global crisis point.
-
1:00 - 1:04We have now had 10 years
of record-breaking climate extremes: -
1:04 - 1:08fires blaze in Australia,
Siberia, California and the Amazon, -
1:08 - 1:11floods in China, Bangladesh and India.
-
1:11 - 1:15We're now enduring heat waves
across the entire northern hemisphere. -
1:15 - 1:16We risk crossing tipping points
-
1:16 - 1:20that shift the planet
from being our best resilient friend, -
1:20 - 1:22dampening our impacts,
-
1:22 - 1:26to start working against us,
amplifying the heat. -
1:26 - 1:30For the first time, we are forced
to consider the real risk -
1:30 - 1:34of destabilizing the entire planet.
-
1:34 - 1:35Our children can see this.
-
1:35 - 1:38They are walking out of school
to demand action, -
1:38 - 1:42looking with disbelief
at our inability to deviate away -
1:42 - 1:45from potentially catastrophic risks.
-
1:45 - 1:48The next 10 years, to 2030,
-
1:48 - 1:53must see the most profound transformation
the world has ever known. -
1:53 - 1:55This is our mission.
-
1:55 - 1:57This is the countdown.
-
1:57 - 1:58(Clock ticks)
-
1:58 - 2:02When my scientific colleagues
summarized, about a decade ago, -
2:02 - 2:04for the first time,
-
2:04 - 2:06the state of knowledge
on climate tipping points, -
2:06 - 2:12just one place had strong evidence
that it was on a serious downward spiral. -
2:12 - 2:15Arctic sea ice.
(Water sounds) -
2:15 - 2:17Other tipping points were long way off --
-
2:17 - 2:2050 or 100 turns around the sun.
-
2:21 - 2:24Just last year we revisited these systems,
-
2:24 - 2:27and I got the shock of my career.
-
2:27 - 2:32We are only a few decades away
from an Arctic without sea ice in summer. -
2:32 - 2:36In Siberia, permafrost
is now thawing at dramatic scales. -
2:36 - 2:39Greenland is losing
trillions of tons of ice -
2:39 - 2:42and may be approaching a tipping point.
-
2:42 - 2:43The great forests of the North
-
2:43 - 2:47are burning with plumes of smoke
the size of Europe. -
2:47 - 2:50The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing.
-
2:50 - 2:52The Amazon rainforest is weakening
-
2:52 - 2:56and may start emitting carbon
within 15 years. -
2:56 - 2:59Half of the coral
of the Great Barrier Reef has died. -
2:59 - 3:04West Antarctica may have crossed
the tipping point already today. -
3:04 - 3:08And now, the most solid
of glaciers on earth, East Antarctica, -
3:08 - 3:11parts of it are becoming unstable.
-
3:11 - 3:18Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems
that regulate climate are now on the move, -
3:18 - 3:20showing worrying signs of decline
-
3:20 - 3:23and potentially
approaching tipping points. -
3:23 - 3:26Tipping points bring three threats.
-
3:26 - 3:28First, sea level rise.
-
3:28 - 3:32We can already expect
up to one meter this century. -
3:32 - 3:36This will endanger the homes
of 200 million people. -
3:36 - 3:39But when we add the melting ice
from Antarctica and Greenland -
3:39 - 3:41into the equation,
-
3:41 - 3:43this might lead to a two meter rise.
-
3:43 - 3:47But it won't stop there,
it will keep on getting worse. -
3:48 - 3:51Second, if our carbon stores
like permafrost and forest -
3:51 - 3:53flip to belching carbon,
-
3:53 - 3:58then this makes the job of stabilizing
temperatures so much harder. -
3:58 - 4:02And third, these systems
are all linked like dominoes: -
4:02 - 4:06If you cross one tipping point,
you lurch closer to others. -
4:07 - 4:10Let's stop for a moment
and look at where we are. -
4:10 - 4:13The foundation of our civilization
is a stable climate -
4:13 - 4:15and a rich diversity of life.
-
4:15 - 4:19Everything, I mean everything,
is based on this. -
4:19 - 4:22Civilization has thrived
in a Goldilocks zone: -
4:22 - 4:25not too hot, not too cold.
-
4:25 - 4:30This is what we have had for 10,000 years
since we left the last ice age. -
4:30 - 4:32Let's zoom out a little here.
-
4:32 - 4:34Three million years --
-
4:34 - 4:39temperatures have never broken through
the two degrees Celsius limit. -
4:39 - 4:42Earth has self-regulated
within a very narrow range -
4:42 - 4:45of plus two degrees
in a warm interglacial, -
4:45 - 4:48minus four degrees, deep ice age.
-
4:48 - 4:50Now, we are following a path
-
4:50 - 4:53that would take us
to a three to four degree world -
4:53 - 4:55in just three generations.
-
4:55 - 4:59We would be rewinding the climate clock,
not one million, not two million, -
4:59 - 5:01but five to 10 million years.
-
5:01 - 5:04We are drifting towards hot-house earth.
-
5:04 - 5:06For each one degree rise,
-
5:06 - 5:09one billion people will be forced
to live in conditions -
5:09 - 5:12that we today largely
consider uninhabitable. -
5:12 - 5:16This is not a climate emergency,
it is a planetary emergency. -
5:16 - 5:20My fear is not that Earth
will fall over a cliff -
5:20 - 5:22on the 1st of January, 2030.
-
5:22 - 5:27My fear is that we press unstoppable
buttons in the Earth system. -
5:28 - 5:30What happens in the next 10 years
-
5:30 - 5:34will likely determine the state
of the planet we hand over -
5:34 - 5:36for future generations.
-
5:36 - 5:39Our children have every
reason to be alarmed. -
5:39 - 5:43We need to get serious
about stabilizing our planet. -
5:43 - 5:46Two frontiers will guide
this transformation. -
5:46 - 5:48The first one is in science.
-
5:48 - 5:50Here's a new equation
for a sustainable planet: -
5:50 - 5:54planetary boundaries plus global commons
-
5:54 - 5:56equals planetary stewardship.
-
5:56 - 5:59We need to a safe corridor for humanity
-
5:59 - 6:04to allow us all to become stewards
of the entire planet, -
6:04 - 6:08not to save the planet but to provide
a good future for all people. -
6:08 - 6:11And the second frontier is in society.
-
6:11 - 6:14We need a new economic logic
based on well-being. -
6:14 - 6:17We are now in a position
to provide science-based targets -
6:17 - 6:22for all global commons for all companies
and cities in the world. -
6:22 - 6:27First task, we need to cut
global emissions by half by 2030 -
6:27 - 6:30and reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner.
-
6:30 - 6:33This means decarbonizing
the big systems that run our lives: -
6:34 - 6:36energy, industry, transport, buildings.
-
6:36 - 6:39The fossil fuel era is over.
-
6:39 - 6:42We need to transform agriculture
from a source of emissions -
6:42 - 6:44to a store of carbon,
-
6:44 - 6:47and critically, we must
protect our oceans and land, -
6:47 - 6:51the natural ecosystems
that absorb half of our emissions. -
6:52 - 6:55The good news is, we can do this.
-
6:55 - 6:59We have the knowledge.
We have the technology. -
6:59 - 7:02We know it makes social
and economic sense. -
7:02 - 7:07And when we succeed,
we can all take lungfuls of fresh air. -
7:07 - 7:10We will be saying hello
to healthy lifestyles -
7:10 - 7:13and resilient economies in livable cities.
-
7:14 - 7:18We are all on this journey
around the sun together. -
7:18 - 7:20This is our only home.
-
7:21 - 7:26This is our mission:
to protect our children's future. -
7:27 - 7:28Thank you.
-
7:29 - 7:30(Lights click off)
- Title:
- 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet
- Speaker:
- Johan Rockström
- Description:
-
"For the first time, we are forced to consider the real risk of destabilizing the entire planet," says climate impact scholar Johan Rockström. In a talk backed by vivid animations of the climate crisis, he shows how nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems that regulate the climate -- from the permafrost of Siberia to the great forests of the North to the Amazon rainforest -- are at risk of reaching tipping points, which could make Earth uninhabitable for humanity. Hear his plan for putting the planet back on the path of sustainability over the next 10 years -- and protecting the future of our children.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 07:34
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Ivana Korom edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Ivana Korom edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Ivana Korom edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | ||
Cissy Yun approved English subtitles for 10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet |