-
(beeping clock)
-
(clapboard clapping)
-
10 years is a long time
for us humans on earth.
-
10 turns around the sun.
-
When I was on the TED stage a decade ago,
-
I talked about planetary
boundaries that keep our planet
-
in a state that allowed
humanity to prosper.
-
The main point is that
once you transgress one,
-
the risks start multiplying.
-
The planetary boundaries
are all deeply connected
-
but climate alongside
biodiversity are core boundaries.
-
They impact on all others.
-
Back then we really
thought we had more time.
-
The warning lights were on, absolutely,
-
but no unstoppable change
had been triggered.
-
Since my talk we have increasing evidence
-
that we are rapidly moving away
-
from the safe operating
space for humanity on earth.
-
Climate has reached a global crisis point.
-
We have now had 10 years of
record breaking climate extreme,
-
fires blazing Australia,
Siberia, California
-
and the Amazon floods in
China, Bangladesh and India.
-
We're now enduring heat waves across
-
the entire Northern Hemisphere.
-
We risk crossing tipping
points that shift the planet
-
from being our best resilient
friend dampening our impacts
-
to start working against
us, amplifying the heat.
-
For the first time, we are
forced to consider the real risk
-
of destabilizing the entire planet.
-
Our children can see this.
-
They are walking out of
school to demand action,
-
looking with disbelief at
our inability to deviate away
-
from potentially catastrophic risks.
-
The next 10 years to 2030,
-
must see the most profound transformation
-
the world has ever known.
-
This is our mission.
-
This is the countdown.
-
(clock ticking)
-
When my scientific colleagues
summarized about a decade ago
-
for the first time the state of knowledge
-
on climate tipping points just
one place had strong evidence
-
that it was on a serious downward spiral.
-
-Arctic sea ice,
-(boat engine roars)
-
other tipping points where long way off.
-
50 or 100 turns around the sun.
-
Just last year we revisited these systems
-
and I got the shock of my career.
-
We are only a few decades away
-
from an Arctic without sea ice in summer.
-
In Siberia permafrost is now
throwing at dramatic scales.
-
Greenland is losing
trillions of tons of ice
-
and may be approaching a tipping point.
-
The great forests of the North
-
are burning with plumes of
smoke the size of Europe.
-
The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing.
-
The Amazon rainforest is weakening
-
and may start emitting
carbon within 15 years.
-
Half of the coral of the
Great Barrier Reef has died.
-
West Antarctica may have crossed
-
a tipping point already today.
-
And now the most solid
of glaciers on earth,
-
Eastern Antarctica parts of
it are becoming unstable.
-
Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems
-
that regulate climate are now on the move.
-
Showing worrying signs of decline
-
and potentially
approaching tipping points.
-
Tipping points, bring three threats.
-
First, sea level rise.
-
We can already expect up
to one meter this century.
-
This will endanger the
homes of 200 million people.
-
But when we add the
melting ice from Antarctica
-
and Greenland into the equation,
-
this might lead to a two meter rise,
-
but it won't stop there, it
will keep on getting worse.
-
Second, if our carbon stores
-
like permafrost and forest
flipped to belching carbon,
-
then this makes the job
-
of stabilizing temperatures
so much harder.
-
And third, these systems are
all linked like dominoes.
-
If you cross one tipping point,
you lurch closer to others.
-
Let's stop for a moment
and look at where we are.
-
The foundation of our
civilization is a stable climate
-
and a rich diversity of life.
-
Everything, I mean,
everything is based on this.
-
Civilization has thrived
in a Goldilocks zone,
-
not too hot, not too cold.
-
This is what we have had for 10,000 years
-
since we left the last ice age.
-
Let's zoom out a little here.
-
3 million years, temperatures
have never broken through
-
the two degrees Celsius limit.
-
Earth has self-regulated
within a very narrow range
-
of plus two degrees in
a warm interglacial,
-
minus four degrees deep ice age.
-
Now, we are following a
path that would take us
-
to a three to four degree world
in just three generations.
-
We would be rewinding the
climate clock not 1 million,
-
not 2 million, but five
to 10 million years.
-
We are drifting towards hot-house earth.
-
For each one degree rise,
-
1 billion people will be forced to live
-
in conditions that we today
largely consider uninhabitable.
-
This is not a climate emergency.
-
It is a planetary emergency.
-
My fear is not that earth
will fall over a cliff
-
on the 1st of January, 2030.
-
My fear is that we press
unstoppable buttons
-
in the earth system.
-
What happens in the next 10 years
-
will likely determine the state
of the planet we hand over
-
for future generations.
-
Our children have every
reason to be alarmed.
-
We need to get serious about
stabilizing our planet.
-
Two frontiers will guide
this transformation.
-
The first one is in science.
-
Here's a new equation
for sustainable planet,
-
planetary boundaries, plus global commons,
-
equals planetary stewardship.
-
We need to a safe corridor for humanity
-
to allow us all to become
stewards of the entire planet,
-
not to save the planet but
to provide a good future
-
for all people.
-
And the second frontier is in society.
-
We need a new economic
logic based on wellbeing.
-
We are now in a position to
provide science based targets
-
for all global commerce for all companies
-
and cities in the world.
-
First task, we need to cut
global emissions by half by 2030
-
and reach net zero by 2050 or sooner.
-
This means decarbonizing the big systems
-
that run our lives, energy,
industry, transport, buildings.
-
The fossil fuel era is over.
-
We need to transform
agriculture from a source
-
of emissions to a store
of carbon and critically
-
we must protect our oceans and land.
-
The natural ecosystems that
absorb half of our emissions.
-
The good news is we can do this.
-
We have the knowledge
we have the technology.
-
We know it makes social
and economic sense.
-
And when we succeed we can all
take lung fools of fresh air.
-
We will be saying hello
to healthy lifestyles
-
and resilient economies in livable cities.
-
We are all on this journey
around the sun together.
-
This is our only home.
-
This is our mission to
protect our children's future.
-
Thank you.
-
(light going off)
-
(shoes clacking)