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10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet

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    (beeping clock)
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    (clapboard clapping)
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    10 years is a long time
    for us humans on earth.
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    10 turns around the sun.
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    When I was on the TED stage a decade ago,
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    I talked about planetary
    boundaries that keep our planet
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    in a state that allowed
    humanity to prosper.
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    The main point is that
    once you transgress one,
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    the risks start multiplying.
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    The planetary boundaries
    are all deeply connected
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    but climate alongside
    biodiversity are core boundaries.
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    They impact on all others.
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    Back then we really
    thought we had more time.
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    The warning lights were on, absolutely,
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    but no unstoppable change
    had been triggered.
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    Since my talk we have increasing evidence
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    that we are rapidly moving away
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    from the safe operating
    space for humanity on earth.
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    Climate has reached a global crisis point.
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    We have now had 10 years of
    record breaking climate extreme,
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    fires blazing Australia,
    Siberia, California
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    and the Amazon floods in
    China, Bangladesh and India.
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    We're now enduring heat waves across
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    the entire Northern Hemisphere.
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    We risk crossing tipping
    points that shift the planet
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    from being our best resilient
    friend dampening our impacts
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    to start working against
    us, amplifying the heat.
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    For the first time, we are
    forced to consider the real risk
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    of destabilizing the entire planet.
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    Our children can see this.
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    They are walking out of
    school to demand action,
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    looking with disbelief at
    our inability to deviate away
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    from potentially catastrophic risks.
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    The next 10 years to 2030,
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    must see the most profound transformation
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    the world has ever known.
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    This is our mission.
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    This is the countdown.
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    (clock ticking)
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    When my scientific colleagues
    summarized about a decade ago
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    for the first time the state of knowledge
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    on climate tipping points just
    one place had strong evidence
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    that it was on a serious downward spiral.
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    -Arctic sea ice,
    -(boat engine roars)
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    other tipping points where long way off.
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    50 or 100 turns around the sun.
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    Just last year we revisited these systems
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    and I got the shock of my career.
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    We are only a few decades away
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    from an Arctic without sea ice in summer.
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    In Siberia permafrost is now
    throwing at dramatic scales.
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    Greenland is losing
    trillions of tons of ice
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    and may be approaching a tipping point.
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    The great forests of the North
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    are burning with plumes of
    smoke the size of Europe.
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    The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing.
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    The Amazon rainforest is weakening
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    and may start emitting
    carbon within 15 years.
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    Half of the coral of the
    Great Barrier Reef has died.
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    West Antarctica may have crossed
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    a tipping point already today.
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    And now the most solid
    of glaciers on earth,
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    Eastern Antarctica parts of
    it are becoming unstable.
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    Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems
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    that regulate climate are now on the move.
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    Showing worrying signs of decline
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    and potentially
    approaching tipping points.
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    Tipping points, bring three threats.
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    First, sea level rise.
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    We can already expect up
    to one meter this century.
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    This will endanger the
    homes of 200 million people.
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    But when we add the
    melting ice from Antarctica
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    and Greenland into the equation,
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    this might lead to a two meter rise,
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    but it won't stop there, it
    will keep on getting worse.
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    Second, if our carbon stores
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    like permafrost and forest
    flipped to belching carbon,
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    then this makes the job
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    of stabilizing temperatures
    so much harder.
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    And third, these systems are
    all linked like dominoes.
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    If you cross one tipping point,
    you lurch closer to others.
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    Let's stop for a moment
    and look at where we are.
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    The foundation of our
    civilization is a stable climate
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    and a rich diversity of life.
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    Everything, I mean,
    everything is based on this.
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    Civilization has thrived
    in a Goldilocks zone,
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    not too hot, not too cold.
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    This is what we have had for 10,000 years
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    since we left the last ice age.
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    Let's zoom out a little here.
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    3 million years, temperatures
    have never broken through
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    the two degrees Celsius limit.
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    Earth has self-regulated
    within a very narrow range
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    of plus two degrees in
    a warm interglacial,
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    minus four degrees deep ice age.
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    Now, we are following a
    path that would take us
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    to a three to four degree world
    in just three generations.
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    We would be rewinding the
    climate clock not 1 million,
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    not 2 million, but five
    to 10 million years.
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    We are drifting towards hot-house earth.
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    For each one degree rise,
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    1 billion people will be forced to live
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    in conditions that we today
    largely consider uninhabitable.
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    This is not a climate emergency.
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    It is a planetary emergency.
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    My fear is not that earth
    will fall over a cliff
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    on the 1st of January, 2030.
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    My fear is that we press
    unstoppable buttons
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    in the earth system.
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    What happens in the next 10 years
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    will likely determine the state
    of the planet we hand over
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    for future generations.
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    Our children have every
    reason to be alarmed.
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    We need to get serious about
    stabilizing our planet.
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    Two frontiers will guide
    this transformation.
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    The first one is in science.
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    Here's a new equation
    for sustainable planet,
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    planetary boundaries, plus global commons,
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    equals planetary stewardship.
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    We need to a safe corridor for humanity
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    to allow us all to become
    stewards of the entire planet,
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    not to save the planet but
    to provide a good future
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    for all people.
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    And the second frontier is in society.
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    We need a new economic
    logic based on wellbeing.
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    We are now in a position to
    provide science based targets
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    for all global commerce for all companies
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    and cities in the world.
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    First task, we need to cut
    global emissions by half by 2030
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    and reach net zero by 2050 or sooner.
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    This means decarbonizing the big systems
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    that run our lives, energy,
    industry, transport, buildings.
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    The fossil fuel era is over.
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    We need to transform
    agriculture from a source
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    of emissions to a store
    of carbon and critically
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    we must protect our oceans and land.
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    The natural ecosystems that
    absorb half of our emissions.
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    The good news is we can do this.
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    We have the knowledge
    we have the technology.
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    We know it makes social
    and economic sense.
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    And when we succeed we can all
    take lung fools of fresh air.
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    We will be saying hello
    to healthy lifestyles
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    and resilient economies in livable cities.
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    We are all on this journey
    around the sun together.
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    This is our only home.
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    This is our mission to
    protect our children's future.
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    Thank you.
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    (light going off)
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    (shoes clacking)
Title:
10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet
Speaker:
Johan Rockström
Description:

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Video Language:
English
Team:
closed TED
Project:
TEDTalks
Duration:
07:34

English subtitles

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