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(Beeps)

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[Countdown]

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(Clapboard claps)

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Ten years is a long time[br]for us humans on earth.

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Ten turns around the sun.

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When I was on the TED stage a decade ago,

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I talked about planetary boundaries

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that keep our planet in a state[br]that allowed humanity to prosper.

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The main point is that[br]once you transgress one,

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the risks start multiplying.

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The planetary boundaries[br]are all deeply connected,

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but climate, alongside biodiversity,[br]are core boundaries.

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They impact on all others.

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Back then we really[br]thought we had more time.

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The warning lights were on, absolutely,

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but no unstoppable change[br]had been triggered.

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Since my talk, we have increasing evidence

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that we are rapidly moving away

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from the safe operating[br]space for humanity on earth.

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Climate has reached a global crisis point.

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We have now had 10 years[br]of record-breaking climate extremes:

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fires blaze in Australia,[br]Siberia, California and the Amazon,

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floods in China, Bangladesh and India.

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We're now enduring heat waves[br]across the entire northern hemisphere.

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We risk crossing tipping points

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that shift the planet[br]from being our best resilient friend,

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dampening our impacts,

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to start working against us,[br]amplifying the heat.

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For the first time, we are forced[br]to consider the real risk

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of destabilizing the entire planet.

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Our children can see this.

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They are walking out of school[br]to demand action,

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looking with disbelief[br]at our inability to deviate away

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from potentially catastrophic risks.

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The next 10 years, to 2030,

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must see the most profound transformation[br]the world has ever known.

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This is our mission.

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This is the countdown.

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(Clock ticks)

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When my scientific colleagues[br]summarized, about a decade ago,

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for the first time,

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the state of knowledge[br]on climate tipping points,

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just one place had strong evidence[br]that it was on a serious downward spiral.

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Arctic sea ice.[br](Water sounds)

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Other tipping points were long way off --

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50 or 100 turns around the sun.

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Just last year we revisited these systems,

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and I got the shock of my career.

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We are only a few decades away[br]from an Arctic without sea ice in summer.

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In Siberia, permafrost[br]is now thawing at dramatic scales.

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Greenland is losing[br]trillions of tons of ice

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and may be approaching a tipping point.

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The great forests of the North

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are burning with plumes of smoke[br]the size of Europe.

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The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing.

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The Amazon rainforest is weakening

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and may start emitting carbon[br]within 15 years.

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Half of the coral[br]of the Great Barrier Reef has died.

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West Antarctica may have crossed[br]the tipping point already today.

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And now, the most solid[br]of glaciers on earth, East Antarctica,

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parts of it are becoming unstable.

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Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems[br]that regulate climate are now on the move,

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showing worrying signs of decline

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and potentially[br]approaching tipping points.

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Tipping points bring three threats.

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First, sea level rise.

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We can already expect[br]up to one meter this century.

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This will endanger the homes[br]of 200 million people.

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But when we add the melting ice[br]from Antarctica and Greenland

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into the equation,

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this might lead to a two meter rise.

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But it won't stop there,[br]it will keep on getting worse.

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Second, if our carbon stores[br]like permafrost and forest

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flip to belching carbon,

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then this makes the job of stabilizing[br]temperatures so much harder.

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And third, these systems[br]are all linked like dominoes:

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If you cross one tipping point,[br]you lurch closer to others.

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Let's stop for a moment[br]and look at where we are.

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The foundation of our civilization[br]is a stable climate

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and a rich diversity of life.

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Everything, I mean everything,[br]is based on this.

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Civilization has thrived[br]in a Goldilocks zone:

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not too hot, not too cold.

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This is what we have had for 10,000 years[br]since we left the last ice age.

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Let's zoom out a little here.

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Three million years --

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temperatures have never broken through[br]the two degrees Celsius limit.

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Earth has self-regulated[br]within a very narrow range

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of plus two degrees[br]in a warm interglacial,

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minus four degrees, deep ice age.

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Now, we are following a path

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that would take us[br]to a three to four degree world

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in just three generations.

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We would be rewinding the climate clock,[br]not one million, not two million,

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but five to 10 million years.

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We are drifting towards hot-house earth.

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For each one degree rise,

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one billion people will be forced[br]to live in conditions

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that we today largely[br]consider uninhabitable.

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This is not a climate emergency,[br]it is a planetary emergency.

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My fear is not that Earth[br]will fall over a cliff

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on the 1st of January, 2030.

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My fear is that we press unstoppable[br]buttons in the Earth system.

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What happens in the next 10 years

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will likely determine the state[br]of the planet we hand over

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for future generations.

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Our children have every[br]reason to be alarmed.

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We need to get serious[br]about stabilizing our planet.

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Two frontiers will guide[br]this transformation.

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The first one is in science.

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Here's a new equation[br]for a sustainable planet:

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planetary boundaries plus global commons

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equals planetary stewardship.

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We need to a safe corridor for humanity

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to allow us all to become stewards[br]of the entire planet,

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not to save the planet but to provide[br]a good future for all people.

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And the second frontier is in society.

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We need a new economic logic[br]based on well-being.

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We are now in a position[br]to provide science-based targets

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for all global commons for all companies[br]and cities in the world.

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First task, we need to cut[br]global emissions by half by 2030

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and reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner.

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This means decarbonizing[br]the big systems that run our lives:

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energy, industry, transport, buildings.

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The fossil fuel era is over.

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We need to transform agriculture[br]from a source of emissions

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to a store of carbon,

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and critically, we must[br]protect our oceans and land,

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the natural ecosystems[br]that absorb half of our emissions.

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The good news is, we can do this.

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We have the knowledge.[br]We have the technology.

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We know it makes social[br]and economic sense.

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And when we succeed,[br]we can all take lungfuls of fresh air.

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We will be saying hello[br]to healthy lifestyles

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and resilient economies in livable cities.

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We are all on this journey[br]around the sun together.

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This is our only home.

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This is our mission:[br]to protect our children's future.

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Thank you.

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(Lights click off)