Innovating to zero!
-
0:01 - 0:04I'm going to talk today
about energy and climate. -
0:05 - 0:07And that might seem a bit surprising,
-
0:07 - 0:10because my full-time work
at the foundation -
0:10 - 0:12is mostly about vaccines and seeds,
-
0:12 - 0:16about the things that we need
to invent and deliver -
0:16 - 0:19to help the poorest two billion
live better lives. -
0:20 - 0:25But energy and climate
are extremely important to these people; -
0:25 - 0:29in fact, more important
than to anyone else on the planet. -
0:30 - 0:36The climate getting worse means
that many years, their crops won't grow: -
0:36 - 0:39there will be too much rain,
not enough rain; -
0:39 - 0:45things will change in ways their fragile
environment simply can't support. -
0:45 - 0:48And that leads to starvation, it leads
to uncertainty, it leads to unrest. -
0:49 - 0:52So, the climate changes
will be terrible for them. -
0:53 - 0:56Also, the price of energy
is very important to them. -
0:56 - 0:58In fact, if you could pick just one thing
-
0:58 - 1:03to lower the price of to reduce poverty,
by far you would pick energy. -
1:04 - 1:07Now, the price of energy
has come down over time. -
1:07 - 1:13Really advanced civilization
is based on advances in energy. -
1:14 - 1:17The coal revolution fueled
the Industrial Revolution, -
1:17 - 1:21and, even in the 1900s,
we've seen a very rapid decline -
1:21 - 1:23in the price of electricity,
-
1:23 - 1:26and that's why we have
refrigerators, air-conditioning; -
1:26 - 1:30we can make modern materials
and do so many things. -
1:30 - 1:36And so, we're in a wonderful situation
with electricity in the rich world. -
1:37 - 1:40But as we make it cheaper --
and let's say, -
1:40 - 1:43let's go for making it twice as cheap --
-
1:44 - 1:46we need to meet a new constraint,
-
1:47 - 1:51and that constraint has to do with CO2.
-
1:51 - 1:54CO2 is warming the planet,
-
1:54 - 1:59and the equation on CO2
is actually a very straightforward one. -
1:59 - 2:03If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,
-
2:04 - 2:06that leads to a temperature increase,
-
2:06 - 2:10and that temperature increase
leads to some very negative effects: -
2:10 - 2:14the effects on the weather;
perhaps worse, the indirect effects, -
2:14 - 2:19in that the natural ecosystems
can't adjust to these rapid changes, -
2:19 - 2:21and so you get ecosystem collapses.
-
2:21 - 2:27Now, the exact amount of how you map
from a certain increase of CO2 -
2:27 - 2:30to what temperature will be,
and where the positive feedbacks are -- -
2:30 - 2:33there's some uncertainty there,
but not very much. -
2:33 - 2:37And there's certainly uncertainty
about how bad those effects will be, -
2:37 - 2:38but they will be extremely bad.
-
2:39 - 2:42I asked the top scientists
on this several times: -
2:42 - 2:44Do we really have to get
down to near zero? -
2:44 - 2:47Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?
-
2:47 - 2:51And the answer is,
until we get near to zero, -
2:51 - 2:53the temperature will continue to rise.
-
2:53 - 2:55And so that's a big challenge.
-
2:55 - 2:57It's very different than saying,
-
2:58 - 3:01"We're a twelve-foot-high truck
trying to get under a ten-foot bridge, -
3:01 - 3:03and we can just sort of squeeze under."
-
3:04 - 3:07This is something that has to get to zero.
-
3:08 - 3:11Now, we put out a lot
of carbon dioxide every year -- -
3:11 - 3:13over 26 billion tons.
-
3:14 - 3:17For each American, it's about 20 tons.
-
3:17 - 3:20For people in poor countries,
it's less than one ton. -
3:20 - 3:24It's an average of about five tons
for everyone on the planet. -
3:24 - 3:29And somehow, we have to make changes
that will bring that down to zero. -
3:30 - 3:32It's been constantly going up.
-
3:32 - 3:36It's only various economic changes
that have even flattened it at all, -
3:36 - 3:40so we have to go
from rapidly rising to falling, -
3:40 - 3:42and falling all the way to zero.
-
3:42 - 3:46This equation has four factors,
a little bit of multiplication. -
3:46 - 3:50So you've got a thing on the left,
CO2, that you want to get to zero, -
3:50 - 3:53and that's going to be based
on the number of people, -
3:53 - 3:57the services each person
is using on average, -
3:57 - 3:59the energy, on average, for each service,
-
4:00 - 4:03and the CO2 being put out
per unit of energy. -
4:04 - 4:06So let's look at each one of these,
-
4:06 - 4:09and see how we can get this down to zero.
-
4:09 - 4:13Probably, one of these numbers is going
to have to get pretty near to zero. -
4:13 - 4:14(Laughter)
-
4:14 - 4:16That's back from high school algebra.
-
4:16 - 4:17But let's take a look.
-
4:18 - 4:20First, we've got population.
-
4:20 - 4:23The world today has 6.8 billion people.
-
4:23 - 4:25That's headed up to about nine billion.
-
4:25 - 4:29Now, if we do a really great job
on new vaccines, -
4:29 - 4:32health care, reproductive health services,
-
4:32 - 4:35we could lower that by,
perhaps, 10 or 15 percent. -
4:35 - 4:39But there, we see
an increase of about 1.3. -
4:39 - 4:42The second factor is the services we use.
-
4:42 - 4:44This encompasses everything:
-
4:44 - 4:48the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.
-
4:49 - 4:50These are very good things.
-
4:51 - 4:55Getting rid of poverty means
providing these services -
4:55 - 4:57to almost everyone on the planet.
-
4:57 - 5:00And it's a great thing
for this number to go up. -
5:00 - 5:02In the rich world, perhaps
the top one billion, -
5:02 - 5:05we probably could cut back and use less,
-
5:05 - 5:09but every year, this number,
on average, is going to go up, -
5:09 - 5:12and so, overall,
that will more than double -
5:12 - 5:14the services delivered per person.
-
5:15 - 5:17Here we have a very basic service:
-
5:17 - 5:21Do you have lighting in your house
to be able to read your homework? -
5:21 - 5:22And, in fact, these kids don't,
-
5:22 - 5:25so they're going out and reading
their schoolwork -
5:25 - 5:26under the street lamps.
-
5:27 - 5:31Now, efficiency, "E,"
the energy for each service -- -
5:31 - 5:33here, finally we have some good news.
-
5:33 - 5:35We have something that's not going up.
-
5:35 - 5:38Through various inventions
and new ways of doing lighting, -
5:38 - 5:43through different types of cars,
different ways of building buildings -- -
5:43 - 5:45there are a lot of services
-
5:45 - 5:48where you can bring the energy
for that service down -
5:48 - 5:50quite substantially.
-
5:50 - 5:53Some individual services
even bring it down by 90 percent. -
5:54 - 5:57There are other services,
like how we make fertilizer, -
5:57 - 5:59or how we do air transport,
-
5:59 - 6:01where the rooms for improvement
are far, far less. -
6:02 - 6:06And so overall, if we're optimistic,
we may get a reduction -
6:06 - 6:11of a factor of three to even,
perhaps, a factor of six. -
6:12 - 6:14But for these first three factors now,
-
6:14 - 6:19we've gone from 26 billion
to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons, -
6:19 - 6:21and that just won't cut it.
-
6:21 - 6:25So let's look at this fourth factor --
this is going to be a key one -- -
6:25 - 6:31and this is the amount of CO2
put out per each unit of energy. -
6:31 - 6:35So the question is:
Can you actually get that to zero? -
6:35 - 6:38If you burn coal, no.
-
6:38 - 6:39If you burn natural gas, no.
-
6:39 - 6:42Almost every way
we make electricity today, -
6:42 - 6:48except for the emerging renewables
and nuclear, puts out CO2. -
6:48 - 6:52And so, what we're going to have
to do at a global scale, -
6:52 - 6:53is create a new system.
-
6:54 - 6:56So we need energy miracles.
-
6:57 - 7:01Now, when I use the term "miracle,"
I don't mean something that's impossible. -
7:01 - 7:03The microprocessor is a miracle.
-
7:03 - 7:05The personal computer is a miracle.
-
7:05 - 7:08The Internet and its services
are a miracle. -
7:08 - 7:12So the people here have participated
in the creation of many miracles. -
7:13 - 7:15Usually, we don't have a deadline
-
7:15 - 7:17where you have to get the miracle
by a certain date. -
7:17 - 7:21Usually, you just kind of stand by,
and some come along, some don't. -
7:21 - 7:25This is a case where we actually
have to drive at full speed -
7:25 - 7:29and get a miracle
in a pretty tight timeline. -
7:30 - 7:33Now, I thought, "How could
I really capture this? -
7:33 - 7:36Is there some kind
of natural illustration, -
7:36 - 7:40some demonstration that would grab
people's imagination here?" -
7:40 - 7:44I thought back to a year ago
when I brought mosquitoes, -
7:44 - 7:47and somehow people enjoyed that.
-
7:47 - 7:48(Laughter)
-
7:48 - 7:52It really got them involved
in the idea of, you know, -
7:52 - 7:54there are people who live with mosquitoes.
-
7:54 - 7:58With energy, all I could
come up with is this. -
7:59 - 8:02I decided that releasing fireflies
-
8:02 - 8:06would be my contribution
to the environment here this year. -
8:06 - 8:09So here we have some natural fireflies.
-
8:09 - 8:13I'm told they don't bite; in fact,
they might not even leave that jar. -
8:13 - 8:14(Laughter)
-
8:16 - 8:20Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky
solutions like that one, -
8:20 - 8:22but they don't really add up to much.
-
8:22 - 8:26We need solutions, either one or several,
-
8:26 - 8:31that have unbelievable scale
and unbelievable reliability. -
8:32 - 8:35And although there's many directions
that people are seeking, -
8:36 - 8:39I really only see five
that can achieve the big numbers. -
8:40 - 8:44I've left out tide,
geothermal, fusion, biofuels. -
8:44 - 8:46Those may make some contribution,
-
8:46 - 8:49and if they can do better
than I expect, so much the better. -
8:49 - 8:53But my key point here
is that we're going to have to work on -
8:53 - 8:54each of these five,
-
8:54 - 8:58and we can't give up any of them
because they look daunting, -
8:58 - 9:01because they all have
significant challenges. -
9:02 - 9:04Let's look first at burning fossil fuels,
-
9:04 - 9:07either burning coal
or burning natural gas. -
9:08 - 9:12What you need to do there seems
like it might be simple, but it's not. -
9:12 - 9:14And that's to take all the CO2,
-
9:14 - 9:17after you've burned it,
going out the flue, -
9:17 - 9:20pressurize it, create a liquid,
put it somewhere, -
9:20 - 9:22and hope it stays there.
-
9:22 - 9:24Now, we have some pilot things
-
9:24 - 9:26that do this at the 60 to 80
percent level. -
9:26 - 9:31But getting up to that full percentage --
that will be very tricky. -
9:31 - 9:36And agreeing on where these CO2
quantities should be put will be hard, -
9:36 - 9:39but the toughest one here
is this long-term issue: -
9:39 - 9:40Who's going to be sure?
-
9:40 - 9:42Who's going to guarantee
-
9:42 - 9:45something that is literally
billions of times larger -
9:45 - 9:49than any type of waste you think of
in terms of nuclear or other things? -
9:49 - 9:52This is a lot of volume.
-
9:52 - 9:54So that's a tough one.
-
9:54 - 9:56Next would be nuclear.
-
9:56 - 9:59It also has three big problems:
-
9:59 - 10:03cost, particularly in highly
regulated countries, is high; -
10:03 - 10:08the issue of safety, really feeling good
about nothing could go wrong, -
10:08 - 10:11that, even though you have
these human operators, -
10:11 - 10:13the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.
-
10:13 - 10:15And then what do you do with the waste?
-
10:15 - 10:19Although it's not very large,
there are a lot of concerns about that. -
10:19 - 10:21People need to feel good about it.
-
10:21 - 10:25So three very tough problems
that might be solvable, -
10:25 - 10:27and so, should be worked on.
-
10:27 - 10:30The last three of the five,
I've grouped together. -
10:30 - 10:33These are what people often refer to
as the renewable sources. -
10:34 - 10:38And they actually -- although it's great
they don't require fuel -- -
10:38 - 10:40they have some disadvantages.
-
10:40 - 10:46One is that the density of energy
gathered in these technologies -
10:46 - 10:48is dramatically less than a power plant.
-
10:48 - 10:50This is energy farming,
-
10:50 - 10:54so you're talking about many square miles,
thousands of times more area -
10:54 - 10:57than you think of
as a normal energy plant. -
10:57 - 11:00Also, these are intermittent sources.
-
11:00 - 11:04The sun doesn't shine all day,
it doesn't shine every day, -
11:04 - 11:06and likewise, the wind
doesn't blow all the time. -
11:06 - 11:08And so, if you depend on these sources,
-
11:08 - 11:11you have to have some way
of getting the energy -
11:11 - 11:14during those time periods
that it's not available. -
11:14 - 11:17So we've got big cost challenges here.
-
11:17 - 11:19We have transmission challenges;
-
11:19 - 11:23for example, say this energy source
is outside your country, -
11:23 - 11:25you not only need the technology,
-
11:25 - 11:29but you have to deal with the risk
of the energy coming from elsewhere. -
11:29 - 11:31And, finally, this storage problem.
-
11:32 - 11:33To dimensionalize this,
-
11:33 - 11:37I went through and looked
at all the types of batteries made -- -
11:37 - 11:41for cars, for computers, for phones,
for flashlights, for everything -- -
11:41 - 11:46and compared that to the amount
of electrical energy the world uses. -
11:46 - 11:50What I found is that all
the batteries we make now -
11:50 - 11:53could store less than 10 minutes
of all the energy. -
11:54 - 11:57And so, in fact, we need
a big breakthrough here, -
11:57 - 12:01something that's going to be
a factor of 100 better -
12:01 - 12:03than the approaches we have now.
-
12:03 - 12:07It's not impossible,
but it's not a very easy thing. -
12:07 - 12:11Now, this shows up when you try
to get the intermittent source -
12:11 - 12:15to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent
of what you're using. -
12:15 - 12:18If you're counting on it for 100 percent,
-
12:18 - 12:21you need an incredible miracle battery.
-
12:23 - 12:27Now, how are we going to go forward
on this -- what's the right approach? -
12:27 - 12:30Is it a Manhattan Project?
What's the thing that can get us there? -
12:30 - 12:35Well, we need lots of companies
working on this -- hundreds. -
12:35 - 12:39In each of these five paths,
we need at least a hundred people. -
12:39 - 12:41A lot of them, you'll look at
and say, "They're crazy." -
12:41 - 12:43That's good.
-
12:43 - 12:46And, I think, here in the TED group,
-
12:46 - 12:49we have many people
who are already pursuing this. -
12:50 - 12:53Bill Gross has several companies,
including one called eSolar -
12:53 - 12:56that has some great
solar thermal technologies. -
12:56 - 12:59Vinod Khosla is investing
in dozens of companies -
12:59 - 13:03that are doing great things
and have interesting possibilities, -
13:03 - 13:05and I'm trying to help back that.
-
13:05 - 13:09Nathan Myhrvold and I
actually are backing a company -
13:09 - 13:13that, perhaps surprisingly,
is actually taking the nuclear approach. -
13:13 - 13:17There are some innovations
in nuclear: modular, liquid. -
13:17 - 13:21Innovation really stopped
in this industry quite some ago, -
13:21 - 13:24so the idea that there's some
good ideas laying around -
13:24 - 13:26is not all that surprising.
-
13:27 - 13:32The idea of TerraPower is that,
instead of burning a part of uranium -- -
13:32 - 13:35the one percent, which is the U235 --
-
13:35 - 13:39we decided, "Let's burn
the 99 percent, the U238." -
13:40 - 13:42It is kind of a crazy idea.
-
13:42 - 13:45In fact, people had talked
about it for a long time, -
13:45 - 13:49but they could never simulate properly
whether it would work or not, -
13:49 - 13:52and so it's through the advent
of modern supercomputers -
13:52 - 13:54that now you can simulate
and see that, yes, -
13:55 - 14:00with the right materials approach,
this looks like it would work. -
14:00 - 14:03And because you're burning
that 99 percent, -
14:03 - 14:07you have greatly improved cost profile.
-
14:07 - 14:12You actually burn up the waste,
and you can actually use as fuel -
14:12 - 14:15all the leftover waste
from today's reactors. -
14:15 - 14:18So instead of worrying about them,
you just take that, it's a great thing. -
14:19 - 14:23It breeds this uranium as it goes along,
so it's kind of like a candle. -
14:23 - 14:27You see it's a log there, often
referred to as a traveling wave reactor. -
14:28 - 14:31In terms of fuel,
this really solves the problem. -
14:31 - 14:34I've got a picture here
of a place in Kentucky. -
14:34 - 14:37This is the leftover, the 99 percent,
-
14:37 - 14:39where they've taken out
the part they burn now, -
14:39 - 14:40so it's called depleted uranium.
-
14:40 - 14:43That would power the US
for hundreds of years. -
14:43 - 14:47And simply by filtering seawater
in an inexpensive process, -
14:47 - 14:51you'd have enough fuel for the entire
lifetime of the rest of the planet. -
14:51 - 14:55So, you know, it's got lots
of challenges ahead, -
14:55 - 15:01but it is an example of the many
hundreds and hundreds of ideas -
15:01 - 15:02that we need to move forward.
-
15:03 - 15:06So let's think: How should
we measure ourselves? -
15:06 - 15:09What should our report card look like?
-
15:09 - 15:12Well, let's go out to where
we really need to get, -
15:12 - 15:14and then look at the intermediate.
-
15:14 - 15:19For 2050, you've heard many people
talk about this 80 percent reduction. -
15:20 - 15:23That really is very important,
that we get there. -
15:23 - 15:27And that 20 percent will be used up
by things going on in poor countries -- -
15:27 - 15:33still some agriculture; hopefully,
we will have cleaned up forestry, cement. -
15:33 - 15:36So, to get to that 80 percent,
-
15:36 - 15:40the developed countries,
including countries like China, -
15:40 - 15:45will have had to switch
their electricity generation altogether. -
15:45 - 15:51The other grade is: Are we deploying
this zero-emission technology, -
15:51 - 15:53have we deployed it
in all the developed countries -
15:53 - 15:56and are in the process
of getting it elsewhere? -
15:56 - 15:58That's super important.
-
15:58 - 16:01That's a key element
of making that report card. -
16:02 - 16:06Backing up from there, what should
the 2020 report card look like? -
16:07 - 16:09Well, again, it should have
the two elements. -
16:09 - 16:13We should go through these efficiency
measures to start getting reductions: -
16:13 - 16:17The less we emit,
the less that sum will be of CO2, -
16:17 - 16:19and therefore, the less the temperature.
-
16:19 - 16:22But in some ways, the grade we get there,
-
16:22 - 16:26doing things that don't get us
all the way to the big reductions, -
16:26 - 16:30is only equally, or maybe even slightly
less, important than the other, -
16:30 - 16:33which is the piece of innovation
on these breakthroughs. -
16:34 - 16:37These breakthroughs,
we need to move those at full speed, -
16:37 - 16:39and we can measure that
in terms of companies, -
16:39 - 16:42pilot projects, regulatory things
that have been changed. -
16:43 - 16:46There's a lot of great books
that have been written about this. -
16:46 - 16:48The Al Gore book, "Our Choice,"
-
16:48 - 16:52and the David MacKay book,
"Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air." -
16:52 - 16:55They really go through it
and create a framework -
16:55 - 16:57that this can be discussed broadly,
-
16:57 - 16:59because we need broad backing for this.
-
16:59 - 17:01There's a lot that has to come together.
-
17:01 - 17:03So this is a wish.
-
17:03 - 17:07It's a very concrete wish
that we invent this technology. -
17:07 - 17:10If you gave me only one wish
for the next 50 years -- -
17:10 - 17:12I could pick who's president,
-
17:12 - 17:15I could pick a vaccine,
which is something I love, -
17:15 - 17:17or I could pick that this thing
-
17:17 - 17:21that's half the cost with no CO2
gets invented -- -
17:21 - 17:23this is the wish I would pick.
-
17:23 - 17:25This is the one with the greatest impact.
-
17:25 - 17:27If we don't get this wish,
-
17:27 - 17:30the division between the people
who think short term and long term -
17:30 - 17:31will be terrible,
-
17:31 - 17:34between the US and China,
between poor countries and rich, -
17:34 - 17:35and most of all,
-
17:35 - 17:38the lives of those two billion
will be far worse. -
17:39 - 17:41So what do we have to do?
-
17:41 - 17:46What am I appealing to you
to step forward and drive? -
17:46 - 17:49We need to go for more research funding.
-
17:49 - 17:52When countries get together
in places like Copenhagen, -
17:52 - 17:54they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.
-
17:54 - 17:57They should discuss
this innovation agenda. -
17:57 - 18:01You'd be stunned at the ridiculously
low levels of spending -
18:01 - 18:03on these innovative approaches.
-
18:03 - 18:07We do need the market incentives --
CO2 tax, cap and trade -- -
18:07 - 18:10something that gets
that price signal out there. -
18:10 - 18:11We need to get the message out.
-
18:12 - 18:14We need to have this dialogue
be a more rational, -
18:14 - 18:16more understandable dialogue,
-
18:16 - 18:18including the steps
that the government takes. -
18:18 - 18:22This is an important wish,
but it is one I think we can achieve. -
18:22 - 18:24Thank you.
-
18:24 - 18:31(Applause)
-
18:33 - 18:35(Applause ends)
-
18:35 - 18:36Thank you.
-
18:37 - 18:39Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.
-
18:39 - 18:44(Applause)
-
18:44 - 18:46CA: Thank you.
-
18:46 - 18:50So to understand more about TerraPower.
-
18:50 - 18:54I mean, first of all, can you give a sense
of what scale of investment this is? -
18:55 - 18:59Bill Gates: To actually do the software,
buy the supercomputer, -
18:59 - 19:02hire all the great scientists,
which we've done, -
19:02 - 19:04that's only tens of millions.
-
19:04 - 19:08And even once we test our materials out
in a Russian reactor -
19:08 - 19:11to make sure our materials work properly,
-
19:11 - 19:14then you'll only be up
in the hundreds of millions. -
19:14 - 19:16The tough thing
is building the pilot reactor -- -
19:16 - 19:21finding the several billion,
finding the regulator, the location -
19:21 - 19:23that will actually build
the first one of these. -
19:23 - 19:27Once you get the first one built,
if it works as advertised, -
19:27 - 19:29then it's just clear as day,
-
19:29 - 19:32because the economics,
the energy density, are so different -
19:32 - 19:33than nuclear as we know it.
-
19:33 - 19:35CA: So to understand it right,
-
19:35 - 19:37this involves building
deep into the ground, -
19:37 - 19:43almost like a vertical column
of nuclear fuel, of this spent uranium, -
19:43 - 19:46and then the process starts
at the top and kind of works down? -
19:46 - 19:47BG: That's right.
-
19:47 - 19:49Today, you're always
refueling the reactor, -
19:49 - 19:52so you have lots of people and lots
of controls that can go wrong, -
19:52 - 19:55where you're opening it up
and moving things in and out -- -
19:55 - 19:57that's not good.
-
19:57 - 19:58So if you have very --
-
19:58 - 20:00(Laughter)
-
20:00 - 20:02very cheap fuel
that you can put 60 years in -- -
20:02 - 20:04just think of it as a log --
-
20:04 - 20:07put it down and not have
those same complexities. -
20:08 - 20:12And it just sits there and burns
for the 60 years, and then it's done. -
20:12 - 20:16CA: It's a nuclear power plant
that is its own waste disposal solution. -
20:16 - 20:18BG: Yeah; what happens with the waste,
-
20:18 - 20:24you can let it sit there -- there's a lot
less waste under this approach -- -
20:24 - 20:25then you can actually take that
-
20:25 - 20:28and put it into another one and burn that.
-
20:28 - 20:32And we start out, actually,
by taking the waste that exists today -
20:32 - 20:36that's sitting in these cooling pools
or dry-casking by reactors -- -
20:36 - 20:39that's our fuel to begin with.
-
20:39 - 20:41So the thing that's been a problem
from those reactors -
20:41 - 20:43is actually what gets fed into ours,
-
20:43 - 20:46and you're reducing the volume
of the waste quite dramatically -
20:46 - 20:48as you're going through this process.
-
20:48 - 20:51CA: You're talking
to different people around the world -
20:51 - 20:52about the possibilities.
-
20:52 - 20:56Where is there most interest
in actually doing something with this? -
20:56 - 21:00BG: Well, we haven't picked
a particular place, -
21:00 - 21:03and there's all these interesting
disclosure rules -
21:03 - 21:06about anything that's called "nuclear."
-
21:06 - 21:09So we've got a lot of interest.
-
21:09 - 21:12People from the company
have been in Russia, India, China. -
21:12 - 21:14I've been back seeing
the secretary of energy here, -
21:14 - 21:18talking about how this fits
into the energy agenda. -
21:18 - 21:19So I'm optimistic.
-
21:19 - 21:22The French and Japanese
have done some work. -
21:22 - 21:25This is a variant on something
that has been done. -
21:25 - 21:29It's an important advance,
but it's like a fast reactor, -
21:29 - 21:31and a lot of countries have built them,
-
21:31 - 21:34so anybody who's done
a fast reactor is a candidate -
21:34 - 21:36to be where the first one gets built.
-
21:36 - 21:39CA: So, in your mind,
-
21:39 - 21:44timescale and likelihood of actually
taking something like this live? -
21:44 - 21:50BG: Well, we need -- for one of these
high-scale, electro-generation things -
21:50 - 21:52that's very cheap,
-
21:52 - 21:55we have 20 years to invent
and then 20 years to deploy. -
21:55 - 21:57That's sort of the deadline
-
21:57 - 22:02that the environmental models
have shown us that we have to meet. -
22:02 - 22:08And TerraPower -- if things go well,
which is wishing for a lot -- -
22:08 - 22:09could easily meet that.
-
22:09 - 22:13And there are, fortunately
now, dozens of companies -- -
22:13 - 22:14we need it to be hundreds --
-
22:14 - 22:16who, likewise, if their science goes well,
-
22:16 - 22:19if the funding for their pilot
plants goes well, -
22:19 - 22:21that they can compete for this.
-
22:21 - 22:23And it's best if multiple succeed,
-
22:23 - 22:26because then you could use
a mix of these things. -
22:26 - 22:28We certainly need one to succeed.
-
22:28 - 22:31CA: In terms of big-scale
possible game changers, -
22:31 - 22:34is this the biggest
that you're aware of out there? -
22:34 - 22:38BG: An energy breakthrough
is the most important thing. -
22:38 - 22:41It would have been, even
without the environmental constraint, -
22:41 - 22:45but the environmental constraint
just makes it so much greater. -
22:45 - 22:48In the nuclear space,
there are other innovators. -
22:48 - 22:51You know, we don't know their work
as well as we know this one, -
22:51 - 22:55but the modular people,
that's a different approach. -
22:55 - 22:58There's a liquid-type reactor,
which seems a little hard, -
22:58 - 23:01but maybe they say that about us.
-
23:01 - 23:03And so, there are different ones,
-
23:03 - 23:06but the beauty of this
is a molecule of uranium -
23:06 - 23:10has a million times as much energy
as a molecule of, say, coal. -
23:11 - 23:14And so, if you can
deal with the negatives, -
23:14 - 23:18which are essentially the radiation,
the footprint and cost, -
23:18 - 23:22the potential, in terms of effect
on land and various things, -
23:22 - 23:25is almost in a class of its own.
-
23:26 - 23:30CA: If this doesn't work, then what?
-
23:30 - 23:33Do we have to start taking
emergency measures -
23:33 - 23:36to try and keep the temperature
of the earth stable? -
23:36 - 23:38BG: If you get into that situation,
-
23:38 - 23:43it's like if you've been overeating,
and you're about to have a heart attack. -
23:43 - 23:46Then where do you go?
-
23:46 - 23:47You may need heart surgery or something.
-
23:48 - 23:51There is a line of research
on what's called geoengineering, -
23:51 - 23:54which are various techniques
that would delay the heating -
23:54 - 23:58to buy us 20 or 30 years
to get our act together. -
23:58 - 24:01Now, that's just an insurance policy;
you hope you don't need to do that. -
24:01 - 24:04Some people say you shouldn't even
work on the insurance policy -
24:04 - 24:06because it might make you lazy,
-
24:06 - 24:10that you'll keep eating because you know
heart surgery will be there to save you. -
24:10 - 24:13I'm not sure that's wise,
given the importance of the problem, -
24:13 - 24:16but there's now
the geoengineering discussion -
24:16 - 24:20about: Should that be in the back
pocket in case things happen faster, -
24:20 - 24:24or this innovation goes
a lot slower than we expect? -
24:26 - 24:27CA: Climate skeptics:
-
24:27 - 24:31If you had a sentence or two
to say to them, -
24:31 - 24:35how might you persuade them
that they're wrong? -
24:36 - 24:39BG: Well, unfortunately,
the skeptics come in different camps. -
24:39 - 24:43The ones who make scientific
arguments are very few. -
24:43 - 24:46Are they saying there's negative
feedback effects -
24:46 - 24:48that have to do with clouds
that offset things? -
24:48 - 24:52There are very, very few things
that they can even say -
24:52 - 24:54there's a chance
in a million of those things. -
24:54 - 24:58The main problem we have here --
it's kind of like with AIDS: -
24:58 - 25:01you make the mistake now,
and you pay for it a lot later. -
25:01 - 25:05And so, when you have
all sorts of urgent problems, -
25:05 - 25:09the idea of taking pain now
that has to do with a gain later, -
25:09 - 25:11and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.
-
25:11 - 25:17In fact, the IPCC report --
that's not necessarily the worst case, -
25:17 - 25:21and there are people in the rich world
who look at IPCC and say, -
25:21 - 25:23"OK, that isn't that big of a deal."
-
25:23 - 25:27The fact is it's that uncertain part
that should move us towards this. -
25:27 - 25:29But my dream here is that,
-
25:29 - 25:33if you can make it economic,
and meet the CO2 constraints, -
25:33 - 25:34then the skeptics say,
-
25:34 - 25:36"OK, I don't care
that it doesn't put out CO2, -
25:36 - 25:38I kind of wish it did put out CO2.
-
25:38 - 25:39But I guess I'll accept it,
-
25:39 - 25:42because it's cheaper
than what's come before." -
25:42 - 25:47(Applause)
-
25:47 - 25:50CA: So that would be your response
to the Bjørn Lomborg argument, -
25:50 - 25:55basically if you spend all this energy
trying to solve the CO2 problem, -
25:55 - 25:57it's going to take away
all your other goals -
25:57 - 26:00of trying to rid the world
of poverty and malaria and so forth, -
26:00 - 26:02it's a stupid waste
of the Earth's resources -
26:02 - 26:03to put money towards that
-
26:03 - 26:05when there are better things we can do.
-
26:05 - 26:09BG: Well, the actual
spending on the R&D piece -- -
26:09 - 26:12say the US should spend 10 billion a year
more than it is right now -- -
26:12 - 26:14it's not that dramatic.
-
26:14 - 26:16It shouldn't take away from other things.
-
26:16 - 26:19The thing you get into big money on,
and reasonable people can disagree, -
26:19 - 26:22is when you have something
that's non-economic -
26:22 - 26:23and you're trying to fund that --
-
26:23 - 26:25that, to me, mostly is a waste.
-
26:25 - 26:27Unless you're very close,
-
26:27 - 26:30and you're just funding the learning curve
and it's going to get very cheap, -
26:30 - 26:33I believe we should try more things
-
26:33 - 26:36that have a potential
to be far less expensive. -
26:36 - 26:41If the trade-off you get into is,
"Let's make energy super expensive," -
26:41 - 26:43then the rich can afford that.
-
26:43 - 26:46I mean, all of us here could pay
five times as much for our energy -
26:46 - 26:48and not change our lifestyle.
-
26:48 - 26:50The disaster is for that two billion.
-
26:50 - 26:52And even Lomborg has changed.
-
26:52 - 26:57His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D
getting more discussed?" -
26:57 - 27:00He's still, because of his earlier stuff,
-
27:00 - 27:01still associated with the skeptic camp,
-
27:01 - 27:04but he's realized
that's a pretty lonely camp, -
27:04 - 27:08and so, he's making the R&D point.
-
27:08 - 27:12And so there is a thread of something
that I think is appropriate. -
27:12 - 27:15The R&D piece --
it's crazy how little it's funded. -
27:16 - 27:19CA: Well, Bill, I suspect I speak
on behalf of most people here -
27:19 - 27:21to say I really hope your wish comes true.
-
27:21 - 27:22Thank you so much.
-
27:22 - 27:23BG: Thank you.
-
27:23 - 27:29(Applause)
- Title:
- Innovating to zero!
- Speaker:
- Bill Gates
- Description:
-
At TED2010, Bill Gates unveils his vision for the world's energy future, describing the need for "miracles" to avoid planetary catastrophe and explaining why he's backing a dramatically different type of nuclear reactor. The necessary goal? Zero carbon emissions globally by 2050.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 27:32
Krystian Aparta commented on English subtitles for Innovating to zero! | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for Innovating to zero! | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for Innovating to zero! | ||
TED edited English subtitles for Innovating to zero! | ||
TED added a translation |
Krystian Aparta
The English transcript was updated on 3/14/2017.