0:00:00.754,0:00:04.388
I'm going to talk today[br]about energy and climate.

0:00:05.103,0:00:06.881
And that might seem a bit surprising,

0:00:06.905,0:00:10.054
because my full-time work[br]at the foundation

0:00:10.078,0:00:12.113
is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

0:00:12.137,0:00:15.705
about the things that we need[br]to invent and deliver

0:00:15.729,0:00:19.236
to help the poorest two billion[br]live better lives.

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But energy and climate[br]are extremely important to these people;

0:00:25.000,0:00:29.271
in fact, more important[br]than to anyone else on the planet.

0:00:29.793,0:00:35.504
The climate getting worse means[br]that many years, their crops won't grow:

0:00:35.528,0:00:38.559
there will be too much rain,[br]not enough rain;

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things will change in ways their fragile[br]environment simply can't support.

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And that leads to starvation, it leads[br]to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

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So, the climate changes[br]will be terrible for them.

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Also, the price of energy[br]is very important to them.

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In fact, if you could pick just one thing

0:00:58.302,0:01:03.034
to lower the price of to reduce poverty,[br]by far you would pick energy.

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Now, the price of energy[br]has come down over time.

0:01:07.083,0:01:13.389
Really advanced civilization[br]is based on advances in energy.

0:01:13.778,0:01:17.349
The coal revolution fueled[br]the Industrial Revolution,

0:01:17.373,0:01:21.434
and, even in the 1900s,[br]we've seen a very rapid decline

0:01:21.458,0:01:22.976
in the price of electricity,

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and that's why we have[br]refrigerators, air-conditioning;

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we can make modern materials[br]and do so many things.

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And so, we're in a wonderful situation[br]with electricity in the rich world.

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But as we make it cheaper --[br]and let's say,

0:01:40.187,0:01:42.896
let's go for making it twice as cheap --

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we need to meet a new constraint,

0:01:46.777,0:01:50.719
and that constraint has to do with CO2.

0:01:50.743,0:01:53.812
CO2 is warming the planet,

0:01:53.836,0:01:58.976
and the equation on CO2[br]is actually a very straightforward one.

0:01:59.000,0:02:02.939
If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

0:02:03.606,0:02:05.976
that leads to a temperature increase,

0:02:06.000,0:02:09.976
and that temperature increase[br]leads to some very negative effects:

0:02:10.000,0:02:13.913
the effects on the weather;[br]perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

0:02:13.937,0:02:18.630
in that the natural ecosystems[br]can't adjust to these rapid changes,

0:02:18.654,0:02:20.897
and so you get ecosystem collapses.

0:02:21.400,0:02:26.795
Now, the exact amount of how you map[br]from a certain increase of CO2

0:02:26.819,0:02:30.109
to what temperature will be,[br]and where the positive feedbacks are --

0:02:30.133,0:02:32.853
there's some uncertainty there,[br]but not very much.

0:02:33.266,0:02:36.566
And there's certainly uncertainty[br]about how bad those effects will be,

0:02:36.590,0:02:38.326
but they will be extremely bad.

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I asked the top scientists[br]on this several times:

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Do we really have to get[br]down to near zero?

0:02:44.075,0:02:47.108
Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

0:02:47.132,0:02:50.976
And the answer is,[br]until we get near to zero,

0:02:51.000,0:02:52.976
the temperature will continue to rise.

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And so that's a big challenge.

0:02:55.252,0:02:57.478
It's very different than saying,

0:02:57.502,0:03:00.838
"We're a twelve-foot-high truck[br]trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

0:03:00.862,0:03:03.245
and we can just sort of squeeze under."

0:03:03.609,0:03:06.592
This is something that has to get to zero.

0:03:07.568,0:03:10.837
Now, we put out a lot[br]of carbon dioxide every year --

0:03:10.861,0:03:12.964
over 26 billion tons.

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For each American, it's about 20 tons.

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For people in poor countries,[br]it's less than one ton.

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It's an average of about five tons[br]for everyone on the planet.

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And somehow, we have to make changes[br]that will bring that down to zero.

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It's been constantly going up.

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It's only various economic changes[br]that have even flattened it at all,

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so we have to go[br]from rapidly rising to falling,

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and falling all the way to zero.

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This equation has four factors,[br]a little bit of multiplication.

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So you've got a thing on the left,[br]CO2, that you want to get to zero,

0:03:49.788,0:03:53.178
and that's going to be based[br]on the number of people,

0:03:53.202,0:03:56.592
the services each person[br]is using on average,

0:03:56.616,0:03:59.485
the energy, on average, for each service,

0:03:59.509,0:04:03.341
and the CO2 being put out[br]per unit of energy.

0:04:03.732,0:04:05.685
So let's look at each one of these,

0:04:05.709,0:04:08.579
and see how we can get this down to zero.

0:04:09.238,0:04:12.790
Probably, one of these numbers is going[br]to have to get pretty near to zero.

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(Laughter)

0:04:14.020,0:04:15.994
That's back from high school algebra.

0:04:16.018,0:04:17.338
But let's take a look.

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First, we've got population.

0:04:20.194,0:04:22.976
The world today has 6.8 billion people.

0:04:23.000,0:04:25.203
That's headed up to about nine billion.

0:04:25.227,0:04:29.288
Now, if we do a really great job[br]on new vaccines,

0:04:29.312,0:04:31.769
health care, reproductive health services,

0:04:31.793,0:04:34.894
we could lower that by,[br]perhaps, 10 or 15 percent.

0:04:34.918,0:04:38.709
But there, we see[br]an increase of about 1.3.

0:04:39.425,0:04:42.018
The second factor is the services we use.

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This encompasses everything:

0:04:44.244,0:04:48.417
the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

0:04:48.777,0:04:50.414
These are very good things.

0:04:50.929,0:04:54.636
Getting rid of poverty means[br]providing these services

0:04:54.660,0:04:56.665
to almost everyone on the planet.

0:04:56.689,0:04:59.976
And it's a great thing[br]for this number to go up.

0:05:00.000,0:05:02.239
In the rich world, perhaps[br]the top one billion,

0:05:02.263,0:05:04.648
we probably could cut back and use less,

0:05:04.672,0:05:08.788
but every year, this number,[br]on average, is going to go up,

0:05:08.812,0:05:11.976
and so, overall,[br]that will more than double

0:05:12.000,0:05:14.439
the services delivered per person.

0:05:15.138,0:05:17.241
Here we have a very basic service:

0:05:17.265,0:05:20.677
Do you have lighting in your house[br]to be able to read your homework?

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And, in fact, these kids don't,

0:05:22.244,0:05:24.562
so they're going out and reading[br]their schoolwork

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under the street lamps.

0:05:27.278,0:05:30.976
Now, efficiency, "E,"[br]the energy for each service --

0:05:31.000,0:05:32.977
here, finally we have some good news.

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We have something that's not going up.

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Through various inventions[br]and new ways of doing lighting,

0:05:38.000,0:05:43.431
through different types of cars,[br]different ways of building buildings --

0:05:43.455,0:05:45.090
there are a lot of services

0:05:45.114,0:05:48.454
where you can bring the energy[br]for that service down

0:05:48.478,0:05:49.976
quite substantially.

0:05:50.000,0:05:53.495
Some individual services[br]even bring it down by 90 percent.

0:05:53.519,0:05:56.865
There are other services,[br]like how we make fertilizer,

0:05:56.889,0:05:58.531
or how we do air transport,

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where the rooms for improvement[br]are far, far less.

0:06:01.896,0:06:06.194
And so overall, if we're optimistic,[br]we may get a reduction

0:06:06.218,0:06:11.087
of a factor of three to even,[br]perhaps, a factor of six.

0:06:11.608,0:06:13.976
But for these first three factors now,

0:06:14.000,0:06:19.060
we've gone from 26 billion[br]to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

0:06:19.084,0:06:20.545
and that just won't cut it.

0:06:20.999,0:06:24.797
So let's look at this fourth factor --[br]this is going to be a key one --

0:06:24.821,0:06:30.710
and this is the amount of CO2[br]put out per each unit of energy.

0:06:31.174,0:06:34.699
So the question is:[br]Can you actually get that to zero?

0:06:34.723,0:06:37.629
If you burn coal, no.

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If you burn natural gas, no.

0:06:39.152,0:06:42.255
Almost every way[br]we make electricity today,

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except for the emerging renewables[br]and nuclear, puts out CO2.

0:06:48.291,0:06:51.544
And so, what we're going to have[br]to do at a global scale,

0:06:51.568,0:06:53.423
is create a new system.

0:06:53.873,0:06:55.738
So we need energy miracles.

0:06:56.526,0:07:00.819
Now, when I use the term "miracle,"[br]I don't mean something that's impossible.

0:07:00.843,0:07:03.263
The microprocessor is a miracle.

0:07:03.287,0:07:05.272
The personal computer is a miracle.

0:07:05.296,0:07:07.763
The Internet and its services[br]are a miracle.

0:07:07.787,0:07:12.402
So the people here have participated[br]in the creation of many miracles.

0:07:12.857,0:07:14.834
Usually, we don't have a deadline

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where you have to get the miracle[br]by a certain date.

0:07:17.360,0:07:21.341
Usually, you just kind of stand by,[br]and some come along, some don't.

0:07:21.365,0:07:25.464
This is a case where we actually[br]have to drive at full speed

0:07:25.488,0:07:29.479
and get a miracle[br]in a pretty tight timeline.

0:07:30.489,0:07:33.434
Now, I thought, "How could[br]I really capture this?

0:07:33.458,0:07:35.681
Is there some kind[br]of natural illustration,

0:07:35.705,0:07:39.575
some demonstration that would grab[br]people's imagination here?"

0:07:40.242,0:07:43.976
I thought back to a year ago[br]when I brought mosquitoes,

0:07:44.000,0:07:46.630
and somehow people enjoyed that.

0:07:46.654,0:07:48.261
(Laughter)

0:07:48.285,0:07:52.331
It really got them involved[br]in the idea of, you know,

0:07:52.355,0:07:54.407
there are people who live with mosquitoes.

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With energy, all I could[br]come up with is this.

0:07:58.841,0:08:01.975
I decided that releasing fireflies

0:08:01.999,0:08:05.632
would be my contribution[br]to the environment here this year.

0:08:06.116,0:08:08.976
So here we have some natural fireflies.

0:08:09.000,0:08:12.609
I'm told they don't bite; in fact,[br]they might not even leave that jar.

0:08:12.633,0:08:14.205
(Laughter)

0:08:15.833,0:08:19.971
Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky[br]solutions like that one,

0:08:19.995,0:08:21.896
but they don't really add up to much.

0:08:21.920,0:08:25.943
We need solutions, either one or several,

0:08:25.967,0:08:31.478
that have unbelievable scale[br]and unbelievable reliability.

0:08:32.008,0:08:35.476
And although there's many directions[br]that people are seeking,

0:08:35.500,0:08:39.121
I really only see five[br]that can achieve the big numbers.

0:08:39.601,0:08:43.888
I've left out tide,[br]geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

0:08:43.912,0:08:45.889
Those may make some contribution,

0:08:45.913,0:08:48.762
and if they can do better[br]than I expect, so much the better.

0:08:48.786,0:08:52.708
But my key point here[br]is that we're going to have to work on

0:08:52.732,0:08:54.458
each of these five,

0:08:54.482,0:08:58.279
and we can't give up any of them[br]because they look daunting,

0:08:58.303,0:09:01.164
because they all have[br]significant challenges.

0:09:01.801,0:09:04.421
Let's look first at burning fossil fuels,

0:09:04.445,0:09:07.286
either burning coal[br]or burning natural gas.

0:09:07.761,0:09:11.847
What you need to do there seems[br]like it might be simple, but it's not.

0:09:11.871,0:09:14.304
And that's to take all the CO2,

0:09:14.328,0:09:16.976
after you've burned it,[br]going out the flue,

0:09:17.000,0:09:20.145
pressurize it, create a liquid,[br]put it somewhere,

0:09:20.169,0:09:21.599
and hope it stays there.

0:09:22.192,0:09:23.814
Now, we have some pilot things

0:09:23.838,0:09:26.177
that do this at the 60 to 80[br]percent level.

0:09:26.201,0:09:30.600
But getting up to that full percentage --[br]that will be very tricky.

0:09:30.624,0:09:36.196
And agreeing on where these CO2[br]quantities should be put will be hard,

0:09:36.220,0:09:38.882
but the toughest one here[br]is this long-term issue:

0:09:38.906,0:09:40.446
Who's going to be sure?

0:09:40.470,0:09:42.068
Who's going to guarantee

0:09:42.092,0:09:45.161
something that is literally[br]billions of times larger

0:09:45.185,0:09:49.331
than any type of waste you think of[br]in terms of nuclear or other things?

0:09:49.355,0:09:51.835
This is a lot of volume.

0:09:52.434,0:09:53.640
So that's a tough one.

0:09:54.267,0:09:55.602
Next would be nuclear.

0:09:56.000,0:09:58.976
It also has three big problems:

0:09:59.000,0:10:02.976
cost, particularly in highly[br]regulated countries, is high;

0:10:03.000,0:10:07.654
the issue of safety, really feeling good[br]about nothing could go wrong,

0:10:07.678,0:10:10.682
that, even though you have[br]these human operators,

0:10:10.706,0:10:13.055
the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

0:10:13.456,0:10:15.411
And then what do you do with the waste?

0:10:15.435,0:10:18.839
Although it's not very large,[br]there are a lot of concerns about that.

0:10:18.863,0:10:20.528
People need to feel good about it.

0:10:20.552,0:10:24.976
So three very tough problems[br]that might be solvable,

0:10:25.000,0:10:26.583
and so, should be worked on.

0:10:27.189,0:10:29.880
The last three of the five,[br]I've grouped together.

0:10:29.904,0:10:33.319
These are what people often refer to[br]as the renewable sources.

0:10:33.841,0:10:37.864
And they actually -- although it's great[br]they don't require fuel --

0:10:37.888,0:10:39.864
they have some disadvantages.

0:10:40.317,0:10:46.159
One is that the density of energy[br]gathered in these technologies

0:10:46.183,0:10:48.246
is dramatically less than a power plant.

0:10:48.270,0:10:49.952
This is energy farming,

0:10:49.976,0:10:54.097
so you're talking about many square miles,[br]thousands of times more area

0:10:54.121,0:10:56.625
than you think of[br]as a normal energy plant.

0:10:57.498,0:11:00.086
Also, these are intermittent sources.

0:11:00.110,0:11:03.525
The sun doesn't shine all day,[br]it doesn't shine every day,

0:11:03.549,0:11:05.976
and likewise, the wind[br]doesn't blow all the time.

0:11:06.000,0:11:08.389
And so, if you depend on these sources,

0:11:08.413,0:11:10.763
you have to have some way[br]of getting the energy

0:11:10.787,0:11:13.762
during those time periods[br]that it's not available.

0:11:14.158,0:11:16.783
So we've got big cost challenges here.

0:11:17.238,0:11:19.136
We have transmission challenges;

0:11:19.160,0:11:22.724
for example, say this energy source[br]is outside your country,

0:11:22.748,0:11:24.841
you not only need the technology,

0:11:24.865,0:11:29.238
but you have to deal with the risk[br]of the energy coming from elsewhere.

0:11:29.262,0:11:31.171
And, finally, this storage problem.

0:11:31.800,0:11:33.301
To dimensionalize this,

0:11:33.325,0:11:36.878
I went through and looked[br]at all the types of batteries made --

0:11:36.902,0:11:41.414
for cars, for computers, for phones,[br]for flashlights, for everything --

0:11:41.438,0:11:45.932
and compared that to the amount[br]of electrical energy the world uses.

0:11:46.384,0:11:49.977
What I found is that all[br]the batteries we make now

0:11:50.001,0:11:53.228
could store less than 10 minutes[br]of all the energy.

0:11:54.000,0:11:57.368
And so, in fact, we need[br]a big breakthrough here,

0:11:57.392,0:12:01.260
something that's going to be[br]a factor of 100 better

0:12:01.284,0:12:03.117
than the approaches we have now.

0:12:03.141,0:12:06.906
It's not impossible,[br]but it's not a very easy thing.

0:12:07.334,0:12:10.976
Now, this shows up when you try[br]to get the intermittent source

0:12:11.000,0:12:15.152
to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent[br]of what you're using.

0:12:15.176,0:12:17.770
If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

0:12:17.794,0:12:21.453
you need an incredible miracle battery.

0:12:23.000,0:12:26.617
Now, how are we going to go forward[br]on this -- what's the right approach?

0:12:26.641,0:12:30.220
Is it a Manhattan Project?[br]What's the thing that can get us there?

0:12:30.244,0:12:35.055
Well, we need lots of companies[br]working on this -- hundreds.

0:12:35.079,0:12:38.658
In each of these five paths,[br]we need at least a hundred people.

0:12:38.682,0:12:41.392
A lot of them, you'll look at[br]and say, "They're crazy."

0:12:41.416,0:12:42.597
That's good.

0:12:42.621,0:12:45.551
And, I think, here in the TED group,

0:12:45.575,0:12:48.786
we have many people[br]who are already pursuing this.

0:12:49.556,0:12:52.976
Bill Gross has several companies,[br]including one called eSolar

0:12:53.000,0:12:55.782
that has some great[br]solar thermal technologies.

0:12:55.806,0:12:59.256
Vinod Khosla is investing[br]in dozens of companies

0:12:59.280,0:13:03.207
that are doing great things[br]and have interesting possibilities,

0:13:03.231,0:13:05.380
and I'm trying to help back that.

0:13:05.404,0:13:08.976
Nathan Myhrvold and I[br]actually are backing a company

0:13:09.000,0:13:12.772
that, perhaps surprisingly,[br]is actually taking the nuclear approach.

0:13:12.796,0:13:16.734
There are some innovations[br]in nuclear: modular, liquid.

0:13:17.398,0:13:21.171
Innovation really stopped[br]in this industry quite some ago,

0:13:21.195,0:13:24.290
so the idea that there's some[br]good ideas laying around

0:13:24.314,0:13:26.039
is not all that surprising.

0:13:26.529,0:13:32.319
The idea of TerraPower is that,[br]instead of burning a part of uranium --

0:13:32.343,0:13:35.462
the one percent, which is the U235 --

0:13:35.486,0:13:39.202
we decided, "Let's burn[br]the 99 percent, the U238."

0:13:39.738,0:13:42.091
It is kind of a crazy idea.

0:13:42.115,0:13:45.258
In fact, people had talked[br]about it for a long time,

0:13:45.282,0:13:49.443
but they could never simulate properly[br]whether it would work or not,

0:13:49.467,0:13:52.332
and so it's through the advent[br]of modern supercomputers

0:13:52.356,0:13:54.487
that now you can simulate[br]and see that, yes,

0:13:54.511,0:13:59.719
with the right materials approach,[br]this looks like it would work.

0:14:00.193,0:14:02.976
And because you're burning[br]that 99 percent,

0:14:03.000,0:14:07.383
you have greatly improved cost profile.

0:14:07.407,0:14:11.617
You actually burn up the waste,[br]and you can actually use as fuel

0:14:11.641,0:14:14.666
all the leftover waste[br]from today's reactors.

0:14:14.690,0:14:18.481
So instead of worrying about them,[br]you just take that, it's a great thing.

0:14:18.828,0:14:23.323
It breeds this uranium as it goes along,[br]so it's kind of like a candle.

0:14:23.347,0:14:27.079
You see it's a log there, often[br]referred to as a traveling wave reactor.

0:14:27.500,0:14:31.419
In terms of fuel,[br]this really solves the problem.

0:14:31.443,0:14:34.344
I've got a picture here[br]of a place in Kentucky.

0:14:34.368,0:14:36.568
This is the leftover, the 99 percent,

0:14:36.592,0:14:38.822
where they've taken out[br]the part they burn now,

0:14:38.846,0:14:40.416
so it's called depleted uranium.

0:14:40.440,0:14:43.287
That would power the US[br]for hundreds of years.

0:14:43.311,0:14:46.846
And simply by filtering seawater[br]in an inexpensive process,

0:14:46.870,0:14:50.679
you'd have enough fuel for the entire[br]lifetime of the rest of the planet.

0:14:51.054,0:14:55.115
So, you know, it's got lots[br]of challenges ahead,

0:14:55.139,0:15:00.534
but it is an example of the many[br]hundreds and hundreds of ideas

0:15:00.558,0:15:02.417
that we need to move forward.

0:15:03.407,0:15:06.105
So let's think: How should[br]we measure ourselves?

0:15:06.129,0:15:08.976
What should our report card look like?

0:15:09.356,0:15:11.880
Well, let's go out to where[br]we really need to get,

0:15:11.904,0:15:14.047
and then look at the intermediate.

0:15:14.071,0:15:19.093
For 2050, you've heard many people[br]talk about this 80 percent reduction.

0:15:19.842,0:15:22.894
That really is very important,[br]that we get there.

0:15:22.918,0:15:27.339
And that 20 percent will be used up[br]by things going on in poor countries --

0:15:27.363,0:15:32.757
still some agriculture; hopefully,[br]we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.

0:15:32.781,0:15:35.770
So, to get to that 80 percent,

0:15:35.794,0:15:40.299
the developed countries,[br]including countries like China,

0:15:40.323,0:15:44.722
will have had to switch[br]their electricity generation altogether.

0:15:45.125,0:15:50.976
The other grade is: Are we deploying[br]this zero-emission technology,

0:15:51.000,0:15:53.397
have we deployed it[br]in all the developed countries

0:15:53.421,0:15:56.208
and are in the process[br]of getting it elsewhere?

0:15:56.232,0:15:57.976
That's super important.

0:15:58.000,0:16:01.339
That's a key element[br]of making that report card.

0:16:02.000,0:16:06.305
Backing up from there, what should[br]the 2020 report card look like?

0:16:06.755,0:16:09.073
Well, again, it should have[br]the two elements.

0:16:09.097,0:16:13.236
We should go through these efficiency[br]measures to start getting reductions:

0:16:13.260,0:16:16.524
The less we emit,[br]the less that sum will be of CO2,

0:16:16.548,0:16:18.620
and therefore, the less the temperature.

0:16:18.644,0:16:21.573
But in some ways, the grade we get there,

0:16:21.597,0:16:25.841
doing things that don't get us[br]all the way to the big reductions,

0:16:25.865,0:16:29.709
is only equally, or maybe even slightly[br]less, important than the other,

0:16:29.733,0:16:33.489
which is the piece of innovation[br]on these breakthroughs.

0:16:33.513,0:16:36.751
These breakthroughs,[br]we need to move those at full speed,

0:16:36.775,0:16:39.200
and we can measure that[br]in terms of companies,

0:16:39.224,0:16:42.118
pilot projects, regulatory things[br]that have been changed.

0:16:42.598,0:16:45.572
There's a lot of great books[br]that have been written about this.

0:16:45.596,0:16:47.976
The Al Gore book, "Our Choice,"

0:16:48.000,0:16:51.580
and the David MacKay book,[br]"Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."

0:16:51.604,0:16:54.780
They really go through it[br]and create a framework

0:16:54.804,0:16:56.637
that this can be discussed broadly,

0:16:56.661,0:16:58.618
because we need broad backing for this.

0:16:58.986,0:17:01.213
There's a lot that has to come together.

0:17:01.237,0:17:02.719
So this is a wish.

0:17:02.743,0:17:06.920
It's a very concrete wish[br]that we invent this technology.

0:17:07.372,0:17:10.461
If you gave me only one wish[br]for the next 50 years --

0:17:10.485,0:17:12.462
I could pick who's president,

0:17:12.486,0:17:15.248
I could pick a vaccine,[br]which is something I love,

0:17:15.272,0:17:17.329
or I could pick that this thing

0:17:17.353,0:17:20.814
that's half the cost with no CO2[br]gets invented --

0:17:20.838,0:17:22.745
this is the wish I would pick.

0:17:22.769,0:17:24.854
This is the one with the greatest impact.

0:17:24.878,0:17:26.523
If we don't get this wish,

0:17:26.547,0:17:29.985
the division between the people[br]who think short term and long term

0:17:30.009,0:17:31.167
will be terrible,

0:17:31.191,0:17:34.135
between the US and China,[br]between poor countries and rich,

0:17:34.159,0:17:35.353
and most of all,

0:17:35.377,0:17:38.441
the lives of those two billion[br]will be far worse.

0:17:39.158,0:17:40.976
So what do we have to do?

0:17:41.000,0:17:45.824
What am I appealing to you[br]to step forward and drive?

0:17:46.189,0:17:48.770
We need to go for more research funding.

0:17:49.190,0:17:51.815
When countries get together[br]in places like Copenhagen,

0:17:51.839,0:17:54.258
they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.

0:17:54.282,0:17:56.649
They should discuss[br]this innovation agenda.

0:17:56.673,0:18:00.976
You'd be stunned at the ridiculously[br]low levels of spending

0:18:01.000,0:18:02.715
on these innovative approaches.

0:18:03.183,0:18:06.976
We do need the market incentives --[br]CO2 tax, cap and trade --

0:18:07.000,0:18:09.524
something that gets[br]that price signal out there.

0:18:09.881,0:18:11.479
We need to get the message out.

0:18:11.503,0:18:13.907
We need to have this dialogue[br]be a more rational,

0:18:13.931,0:18:15.521
more understandable dialogue,

0:18:15.545,0:18:18.076
including the steps[br]that the government takes.

0:18:18.100,0:18:21.750
This is an important wish,[br]but it is one I think we can achieve.

0:18:22.416,0:18:23.569
Thank you.

0:18:23.593,0:18:30.593
(Applause)

0:18:32.975,0:18:34.976
(Applause ends)

0:18:35.000,0:18:36.216
Thank you.

0:18:37.303,0:18:39.148
Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.

0:18:39.172,0:18:44.233
(Applause)

0:18:44.257,0:18:45.755
CA: Thank you.

0:18:45.779,0:18:49.841
So to understand more about TerraPower.

0:18:50.399,0:18:54.393
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense[br]of what scale of investment this is?

0:18:54.898,0:18:59.232
Bill Gates: To actually do the software,[br]buy the supercomputer,

0:18:59.256,0:19:01.585
hire all the great scientists,[br]which we've done,

0:19:01.609,0:19:03.866
that's only tens of millions.

0:19:03.890,0:19:07.838
And even once we test our materials out[br]in a Russian reactor

0:19:07.862,0:19:11.037
to make sure our materials work properly,

0:19:11.061,0:19:13.578
then you'll only be up[br]in the hundreds of millions.

0:19:13.602,0:19:15.960
The tough thing[br]is building the pilot reactor --

0:19:15.984,0:19:20.788
finding the several billion,[br]finding the regulator, the location

0:19:20.812,0:19:23.071
that will actually build[br]the first one of these.

0:19:23.095,0:19:27.257
Once you get the first one built,[br]if it works as advertised,

0:19:27.281,0:19:28.631
then it's just clear as day,

0:19:28.655,0:19:31.851
because the economics,[br]the energy density, are so different

0:19:31.875,0:19:33.289
than nuclear as we know it.

0:19:33.313,0:19:34.775
CA: So to understand it right,

0:19:34.799,0:19:37.081
this involves building[br]deep into the ground,

0:19:37.105,0:19:42.665
almost like a vertical column[br]of nuclear fuel, of this spent uranium,

0:19:42.689,0:19:45.829
and then the process starts[br]at the top and kind of works down?

0:19:45.853,0:19:47.030
BG: That's right.

0:19:47.054,0:19:49.113
Today, you're always[br]refueling the reactor,

0:19:49.137,0:19:52.329
so you have lots of people and lots[br]of controls that can go wrong,

0:19:52.353,0:19:55.092
where you're opening it up[br]and moving things in and out --

0:19:55.116,0:19:57.273
that's not good.

0:19:57.297,0:19:58.470
So if you have very --

0:19:58.494,0:19:59.583
(Laughter)

0:19:59.607,0:20:02.354
very cheap fuel[br]that you can put 60 years in --

0:20:02.378,0:20:03.932
just think of it as a log --

0:20:03.956,0:20:07.494
put it down and not have[br]those same complexities.

0:20:07.518,0:20:12.423
And it just sits there and burns[br]for the 60 years, and then it's done.

0:20:12.447,0:20:16.385
CA: It's a nuclear power plant[br]that is its own waste disposal solution.

0:20:16.409,0:20:18.303
BG: Yeah; what happens with the waste,

0:20:18.327,0:20:23.707
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot[br]less waste under this approach --

0:20:23.731,0:20:25.367
then you can actually take that

0:20:25.391,0:20:27.976
and put it into another one and burn that.

0:20:28.000,0:20:32.206
And we start out, actually,[br]by taking the waste that exists today

0:20:32.230,0:20:36.462
that's sitting in these cooling pools[br]or dry-casking by reactors --

0:20:36.486,0:20:38.638
that's our fuel to begin with.

0:20:38.662,0:20:41.269
So the thing that's been a problem[br]from those reactors

0:20:41.293,0:20:43.220
is actually what gets fed into ours,

0:20:43.244,0:20:46.231
and you're reducing the volume[br]of the waste quite dramatically

0:20:46.255,0:20:48.232
as you're going through this process.

0:20:48.256,0:20:50.831
CA: You're talking[br]to different people around the world

0:20:50.855,0:20:52.144
about the possibilities.

0:20:52.168,0:20:55.576
Where is there most interest[br]in actually doing something with this?

0:20:55.600,0:20:59.755
BG: Well, we haven't picked[br]a particular place,

0:20:59.779,0:21:03.239
and there's all these interesting[br]disclosure rules

0:21:03.263,0:21:05.739
about anything that's called "nuclear."

0:21:05.763,0:21:08.692
So we've got a lot of interest.

0:21:08.716,0:21:11.791
People from the company[br]have been in Russia, India, China.

0:21:11.815,0:21:14.429
I've been back seeing[br]the secretary of energy here,

0:21:14.453,0:21:17.785
talking about how this fits[br]into the energy agenda.

0:21:17.809,0:21:19.385
So I'm optimistic.

0:21:19.409,0:21:21.586
The French and Japanese[br]have done some work.

0:21:21.610,0:21:25.270
This is a variant on something[br]that has been done.

0:21:25.294,0:21:28.976
It's an important advance,[br]but it's like a fast reactor,

0:21:29.000,0:21:30.976
and a lot of countries have built them,

0:21:31.000,0:21:33.574
so anybody who's done[br]a fast reactor is a candidate

0:21:33.598,0:21:35.976
to be where the first one gets built.

0:21:36.000,0:21:39.442
CA: So, in your mind,

0:21:39.466,0:21:44.224
timescale and likelihood of actually[br]taking something like this live?

0:21:44.248,0:21:50.335
BG: Well, we need -- for one of these[br]high-scale, electro-generation things

0:21:50.359,0:21:51.517
that's very cheap,

0:21:51.541,0:21:55.219
we have 20 years to invent[br]and then 20 years to deploy.

0:21:55.243,0:21:56.999
That's sort of the deadline

0:21:57.023,0:22:02.281
that the environmental models[br]have shown us that we have to meet.

0:22:02.305,0:22:07.717
And TerraPower -- if things go well,[br]which is wishing for a lot --

0:22:07.741,0:22:09.384
could easily meet that.

0:22:09.408,0:22:12.680
And there are, fortunately[br]now, dozens of companies --

0:22:12.704,0:22:14.055
we need it to be hundreds --

0:22:14.079,0:22:16.296
who, likewise, if their science goes well,

0:22:16.320,0:22:19.215
if the funding for their pilot[br]plants goes well,

0:22:19.239,0:22:21.265
that they can compete for this.

0:22:21.289,0:22:23.263
And it's best if multiple succeed,

0:22:23.287,0:22:25.976
because then you could use[br]a mix of these things.

0:22:26.000,0:22:28.081
We certainly need one to succeed.

0:22:28.105,0:22:31.064
CA: In terms of big-scale[br]possible game changers,

0:22:31.088,0:22:33.822
is this the biggest[br]that you're aware of out there?

0:22:33.846,0:22:38.195
BG: An energy breakthrough[br]is the most important thing.

0:22:38.219,0:22:41.202
It would have been, even[br]without the environmental constraint,

0:22:41.226,0:22:45.089
but the environmental constraint[br]just makes it so much greater.

0:22:45.113,0:22:48.437
In the nuclear space,[br]there are other innovators.

0:22:48.461,0:22:51.451
You know, we don't know their work[br]as well as we know this one,

0:22:51.475,0:22:54.732
but the modular people,[br]that's a different approach.

0:22:54.756,0:22:58.361
There's a liquid-type reactor,[br]which seems a little hard,

0:22:58.385,0:23:00.621
but maybe they say that about us.

0:23:00.645,0:23:02.976
And so, there are different ones,

0:23:03.000,0:23:05.976
but the beauty of this[br]is a molecule of uranium

0:23:06.000,0:23:10.090
has a million times as much energy[br]as a molecule of, say, coal.

0:23:10.702,0:23:13.718
And so, if you can[br]deal with the negatives,

0:23:13.742,0:23:17.594
which are essentially the radiation,[br]the footprint and cost,

0:23:17.618,0:23:21.609
the potential, in terms of effect[br]on land and various things,

0:23:21.633,0:23:24.976
is almost in a class of its own.

0:23:26.039,0:23:29.678
CA: If this doesn't work, then what?

0:23:29.702,0:23:32.976
Do we have to start taking[br]emergency measures

0:23:33.000,0:23:36.098
to try and keep the temperature[br]of the earth stable?

0:23:36.122,0:23:37.976
BG: If you get into that situation,

0:23:38.000,0:23:42.976
it's like if you've been overeating,[br]and you're about to have a heart attack.

0:23:43.000,0:23:45.525
Then where do you go?

0:23:45.549,0:23:47.482
You may need heart surgery or something.

0:23:47.506,0:23:51.376
There is a line of research[br]on what's called geoengineering,

0:23:51.400,0:23:54.377
which are various techniques[br]that would delay the heating

0:23:54.401,0:23:57.687
to buy us 20 or 30 years[br]to get our act together.

0:23:57.711,0:24:01.319
Now, that's just an insurance policy;[br]you hope you don't need to do that.

0:24:01.343,0:24:04.385
Some people say you shouldn't even[br]work on the insurance policy

0:24:04.409,0:24:05.930
because it might make you lazy,

0:24:05.954,0:24:09.820
that you'll keep eating because you know[br]heart surgery will be there to save you.

0:24:09.844,0:24:12.961
I'm not sure that's wise,[br]given the importance of the problem,

0:24:12.985,0:24:16.086
but there's now[br]the geoengineering discussion

0:24:16.110,0:24:20.317
about: Should that be in the back[br]pocket in case things happen faster,

0:24:20.341,0:24:23.828
or this innovation goes[br]a lot slower than we expect?

0:24:25.549,0:24:27.350
CA: Climate skeptics:

0:24:27.374,0:24:30.880
If you had a sentence or two[br]to say to them,

0:24:30.904,0:24:34.513
how might you persuade them[br]that they're wrong?

0:24:35.645,0:24:38.696
BG: Well, unfortunately,[br]the skeptics come in different camps.

0:24:38.720,0:24:43.161
The ones who make scientific[br]arguments are very few.

0:24:43.185,0:24:46.174
Are they saying there's negative[br]feedback effects

0:24:46.198,0:24:48.400
that have to do with clouds[br]that offset things?

0:24:48.424,0:24:51.732
There are very, very few things[br]that they can even say

0:24:51.756,0:24:54.403
there's a chance[br]in a million of those things.

0:24:54.427,0:24:57.631
The main problem we have here --[br]it's kind of like with AIDS:

0:24:57.655,0:25:01.458
you make the mistake now,[br]and you pay for it a lot later.

0:25:01.482,0:25:04.737
And so, when you have[br]all sorts of urgent problems,

0:25:04.761,0:25:08.822
the idea of taking pain now[br]that has to do with a gain later,

0:25:08.846,0:25:11.132
and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.

0:25:11.156,0:25:17.244
In fact, the IPCC report --[br]that's not necessarily the worst case,

0:25:17.268,0:25:21.343
and there are people in the rich world[br]who look at IPCC and say,

0:25:21.367,0:25:23.151
"OK, that isn't that big of a deal."

0:25:23.175,0:25:27.324
The fact is it's that uncertain part[br]that should move us towards this.

0:25:27.348,0:25:28.980
But my dream here is that,

0:25:29.004,0:25:32.664
if you can make it economic,[br]and meet the CO2 constraints,

0:25:32.688,0:25:33.847
then the skeptics say,

0:25:33.871,0:25:36.151
"OK, I don't care[br]that it doesn't put out CO2,

0:25:36.175,0:25:37.855
I kind of wish it did put out CO2.

0:25:37.879,0:25:39.235
But I guess I'll accept it,

0:25:39.259,0:25:41.976
because it's cheaper[br]than what's come before."

0:25:42.000,0:25:46.831
(Applause)

0:25:46.855,0:25:50.035
CA: So that would be your response[br]to the Bjørn Lomborg argument,

0:25:50.059,0:25:54.515
basically if you spend all this energy[br]trying to solve the CO2 problem,

0:25:54.539,0:25:56.633
it's going to take away[br]all your other goals

0:25:56.657,0:25:59.650
of trying to rid the world[br]of poverty and malaria and so forth,

0:25:59.674,0:26:01.907
it's a stupid waste[br]of the Earth's resources

0:26:01.931,0:26:03.204
to put money towards that

0:26:03.228,0:26:05.146
when there are better things we can do.

0:26:05.170,0:26:08.561
BG: Well, the actual[br]spending on the R&D piece --

0:26:08.585,0:26:12.081
say the US should spend 10 billion a year[br]more than it is right now --

0:26:12.105,0:26:13.976
it's not that dramatic.

0:26:14.000,0:26:15.976
It shouldn't take away from other things.

0:26:16.000,0:26:19.420
The thing you get into big money on,[br]and reasonable people can disagree,

0:26:19.444,0:26:21.610
is when you have something[br]that's non-economic

0:26:21.634,0:26:23.253
and you're trying to fund that --

0:26:23.277,0:26:25.205
that, to me, mostly is a waste.

0:26:25.229,0:26:26.776
Unless you're very close,

0:26:26.800,0:26:30.444
and you're just funding the learning curve[br]and it's going to get very cheap,

0:26:30.468,0:26:33.266
I believe we should try more things

0:26:33.290,0:26:35.976
that have a potential[br]to be far less expensive.

0:26:36.000,0:26:41.192
If the trade-off you get into is,[br]"Let's make energy super expensive,"

0:26:41.216,0:26:43.238
then the rich can afford that.

0:26:43.262,0:26:46.391
I mean, all of us here could pay[br]five times as much for our energy

0:26:46.415,0:26:47.806
and not change our lifestyle.

0:26:47.830,0:26:50.094
The disaster is for that two billion.

0:26:50.118,0:26:52.425
And even Lomborg has changed.

0:26:52.449,0:26:56.976
His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D[br]getting more discussed?"

0:26:57.000,0:26:59.513
He's still, because of his earlier stuff,

0:26:59.537,0:27:01.437
still associated with the skeptic camp,

0:27:01.461,0:27:04.234
but he's realized[br]that's a pretty lonely camp,

0:27:04.258,0:27:07.516
and so, he's making the R&D point.

0:27:07.540,0:27:11.976
And so there is a thread of something[br]that I think is appropriate.

0:27:12.000,0:27:14.976
The R&D piece --[br]it's crazy how little it's funded.

0:27:15.556,0:27:18.843
CA: Well, Bill, I suspect I speak[br]on behalf of most people here

0:27:18.867,0:27:20.935
to say I really hope your wish comes true.

0:27:20.959,0:27:22.131
Thank you so much.

0:27:22.155,0:27:23.306
BG: Thank you.

0:27:23.330,0:27:28.722
(Applause)