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I'm going to talk today
about energy and climate.

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And that might seem a bit surprising,

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because my full-time work
at the foundation

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is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

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about the things that we need
to invent and deliver

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to help the poorest two billion
live better lives.

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But energy and climate
are extremely important to these people;

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in fact, more important
than to anyone else on the planet.

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The climate getting worse means
that many years, their crops won't grow:

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there will be too much rain,
not enough rain;

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things will change in ways their fragile
environment simply can't support.

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And that leads to starvation, it leads
to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

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So, the climate changes
will be terrible for them.

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Also, the price of energy
is very important to them.

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In fact, if you could pick just one thing

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to lower the price of to reduce poverty,
by far you would pick energy.

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Now, the price of energy
has come down over time.

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Really advanced civilization
is based on advances in energy.

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The coal revolution fueled
the Industrial Revolution,

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and, even in the 1900s,
we've seen a very rapid decline

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in the price of electricity,

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and that's why we have
refrigerators, air-conditioning;

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we can make modern materials
and do so many things.

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And so, we're in a wonderful situation
with electricity in the rich world.

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But as we make it cheaper --
and let's say,

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let's go for making it twice as cheap --

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we need to meet a new constraint,

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and that constraint has to do with CO2.

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CO2 is warming the planet,

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and the equation on CO2
is actually a very straightforward one.

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If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

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that leads to a temperature increase,

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and that temperature increase
leads to some very negative effects:

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the effects on the weather;
perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

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in that the natural ecosystems
can't adjust to these rapid changes,

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and so you get ecosystem collapses.

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Now, the exact amount of how you map
from a certain increase of CO2

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to what temperature will be,
and where the positive feedbacks are --

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there's some uncertainty there,
but not very much.

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And there's certainly uncertainty
about how bad those effects will be,

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but they will be extremely bad.

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I asked the top scientists
on this several times:

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Do we really have to get
down to near zero?

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Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

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And the answer is,
until we get near to zero,

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the temperature will continue to rise.

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And so that's a big challenge.

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It's very different than saying,

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"We're a twelve-foot-high truck
trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

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and we can just sort of squeeze under."

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This is something that has to get to zero.

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Now, we put out a lot
of carbon dioxide every year --

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over 26 billion tons.

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For each American, it's about 20 tons.

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For people in poor countries,
it's less than one ton.

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It's an average of about five tons
for everyone on the planet.

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And somehow, we have to make changes
that will bring that down to zero.

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It's been constantly going up.

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It's only various economic changes
that have even flattened it at all,

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so we have to go
from rapidly rising to falling,

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and falling all the way to zero.

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This equation has four factors,
a little bit of multiplication.

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So you've got a thing on the left,
CO2, that you want to get to zero,

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and that's going to be based
on the number of people,

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the services each person
is using on average,

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the energy, on average, for each service,

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and the CO2 being put out
per unit of energy.

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So let's look at each one of these,

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and see how we can get this down to zero.

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Probably, one of these numbers is going
to have to get pretty near to zero.

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(Laughter)

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That's back from high school algebra.

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But let's take a look.

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First, we've got population.

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The world today has 6.8 billion people.

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That's headed up to about nine billion.

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Now, if we do a really great job
on new vaccines,

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health care, reproductive health services,

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we could lower that by,
perhaps, 10 or 15 percent.

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But there, we see
an increase of about 1.3.

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The second factor is the services we use.

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This encompasses everything:

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the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

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These are very good things.

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Getting rid of poverty means
providing these services

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to almost everyone on the planet.

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And it's a great thing
for this number to go up.

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In the rich world, perhaps
the top one billion,

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we probably could cut back and use less,

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but every year, this number,
on average, is going to go up,

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and so, overall,
that will more than double

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the services delivered per person.

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Here we have a very basic service:

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Do you have lighting in your house
to be able to read your homework?

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And, in fact, these kids don't,

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so they're going out and reading
their schoolwork

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under the street lamps.

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Now, efficiency, "E,"
the energy for each service --

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here, finally we have some good news.

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We have something that's not going up.

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Through various inventions
and new ways of doing lighting,

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through different types of cars,
different ways of building buildings --

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there are a lot of services

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where you can bring the energy
for that service down

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quite substantially.

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Some individual services
even bring it down by 90 percent.

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There are other services,
like how we make fertilizer,

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or how we do air transport,

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where the rooms for improvement
are far, far less.

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And so overall, if we're optimistic,
we may get a reduction

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of a factor of three to even,
perhaps, a factor of six.

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But for these first three factors now,

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we've gone from 26 billion
to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

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and that just won't cut it.

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So let's look at this fourth factor --
this is going to be a key one --

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and this is the amount of CO2
put out per each unit of energy.

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So the question is:
Can you actually get that to zero?

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If you burn coal, no.

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If you burn natural gas, no.

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Almost every way
we make electricity today,

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except for the emerging renewables
and nuclear, puts out CO2.

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And so, what we're going to have
to do at a global scale,

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is create a new system.

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So we need energy miracles.

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Now, when I use the term "miracle,"
I don't mean something that's impossible.

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The microprocessor is a miracle.

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The personal computer is a miracle.

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The Internet and its services
are a miracle.

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So the people here have participated
in the creation of many miracles.

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Usually, we don't have a deadline

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where you have to get the miracle
by a certain date.

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Usually, you just kind of stand by,
and some come along, some don't.

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This is a case where we actually
have to drive at full speed

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and get a miracle
in a pretty tight timeline.

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Now, I thought, "How could
I really capture this?

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Is there some kind
of natural illustration,

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some demonstration that would grab
people's imagination here?"

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I thought back to a year ago
when I brought mosquitoes,

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and somehow people enjoyed that.

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(Laughter)

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It really got them involved
in the idea of, you know,

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there are people who live with mosquitoes.

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With energy, all I could
come up with is this.

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I decided that releasing fireflies

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would be my contribution
to the environment here this year.

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So here we have some natural fireflies.

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I'm told they don't bite; in fact,
they might not even leave that jar.

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(Laughter)

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Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky
solutions like that one,

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but they don't really add up to much.

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We need solutions, either one or several,

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that have unbelievable scale
and unbelievable reliability.

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And although there's many directions
that people are seeking,

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I really only see five
that can achieve the big numbers.

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I've left out tide,
geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

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Those may make some contribution,

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and if they can do better
than I expect, so much the better.

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But my key point here
is that we're going to have to work on

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each of these five,

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and we can't give up any of them
because they look daunting,

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because they all have
significant challenges.

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Let's look first at burning fossil fuels,

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either burning coal
or burning natural gas.

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What you need to do there seems
like it might be simple, but it's not.

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And that's to take all the CO2,

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after you've burned it,
going out the flue,

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pressurize it, create a liquid,
put it somewhere,

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and hope it stays there.

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Now, we have some pilot things

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that do this at the 60 to 80
percent level.

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But getting up to that full percentage --
that will be very tricky.

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And agreeing on where these CO2
quantities should be put will be hard,

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but the toughest one here
is this long-term issue:

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Who's going to be sure?

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Who's going to guarantee

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something that is literally
billions of times larger

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than any type of waste you think of
in terms of nuclear or other things?

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This is a lot of volume.

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So that's a tough one.

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Next would be nuclear.

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It also has three big problems:

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cost, particularly in highly
regulated countries, is high;

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the issue of safety, really feeling good
about nothing could go wrong,

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that, even though you have
these human operators,

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the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

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And then what do you do with the waste?

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Although it's not very large,
there are a lot of concerns about that.

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People need to feel good about it.

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So three very tough problems
that might be solvable,

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and so, should be worked on.

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The last three of the five,
I've grouped together.

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These are what people often refer to
as the renewable sources.

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And they actually -- although it's great
they don't require fuel --

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they have some disadvantages.

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One is that the density of energy
gathered in these technologies

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is dramatically less than a power plant.

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This is energy farming,

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so you're talking about many square miles,
thousands of times more area

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than you think of
as a normal energy plant.

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Also, these are intermittent sources.

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The sun doesn't shine all day,
it doesn't shine every day,

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and likewise, the wind
doesn't blow all the time.

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And so, if you depend on these sources,

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you have to have some way
of getting the energy

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during those time periods
that it's not available.

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So we've got big cost challenges here.

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We have transmission challenges;

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for example, say this energy source
is outside your country,

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you not only need the technology,

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but you have to deal with the risk
of the energy coming from elsewhere.

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And, finally, this storage problem.

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To dimensionalize this,

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I went through and looked
at all the types of batteries made --

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for cars, for computers, for phones,
for flashlights, for everything --

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and compared that to the amount
of electrical energy the world uses.

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What I found is that all
the batteries we make now

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could store less than 10 minutes
of all the energy.

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And so, in fact, we need
a big breakthrough here,

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something that's going to be
a factor of 100 better

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than the approaches we have now.

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It's not impossible,
but it's not a very easy thing.

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Now, this shows up when you try
to get the intermittent source

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to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent
of what you're using.

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If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

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you need an incredible miracle battery.

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Now, how are we going to go forward
on this -- what's the right approach?

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Is it a Manhattan Project?
What's the thing that can get us there?

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Well, we need lots of companies
working on this -- hundreds.

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In each of these five paths,
we need at least a hundred people.

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A lot of them, you'll look at
and say, "They're crazy."

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That's good.

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And, I think, here in the TED group,

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we have many people
who are already pursuing this.

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Bill Gross has several companies,
including one called eSolar

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that has some great
solar thermal technologies.

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Vinod Khosla is investing
in dozens of companies

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that are doing great things
and have interesting possibilities,

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and I'm trying to help back that.

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Nathan Myhrvold and I
actually are backing a company

240
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,772
that, perhaps surprisingly,
is actually taking the nuclear approach.

241
00:13:12,796 --> 00:13:16,734
There are some innovations
in nuclear: modular, liquid.

242
00:13:17,398 --> 00:13:21,171
Innovation really stopped
in this industry quite some ago,

243
00:13:21,195 --> 00:13:24,290
so the idea that there's some
good ideas laying around

244
00:13:24,314 --> 00:13:26,039
is not all that surprising.

245
00:13:26,529 --> 00:13:32,319
The idea of TerraPower is that,
instead of burning a part of uranium --

246
00:13:32,343 --> 00:13:35,462
the one percent, which is the U235 --

247
00:13:35,486 --> 00:13:39,202
we decided, "Let's burn
the 99 percent, the U238."

248
00:13:39,738 --> 00:13:42,091
It is kind of a crazy idea.

249
00:13:42,115 --> 00:13:45,258
In fact, people had talked
about it for a long time,

250
00:13:45,282 --> 00:13:49,443
but they could never simulate properly
whether it would work or not,

251
00:13:49,467 --> 00:13:52,332
and so it's through the advent
of modern supercomputers

252
00:13:52,356 --> 00:13:54,487
that now you can simulate
and see that, yes,

253
00:13:54,511 --> 00:13:59,719
with the right materials approach,
this looks like it would work.

254
00:14:00,193 --> 00:14:02,976
And because you're burning
that 99 percent,

255
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:07,383
you have greatly improved cost profile.

256
00:14:07,407 --> 00:14:11,617
You actually burn up the waste,
and you can actually use as fuel

257
00:14:11,641 --> 00:14:14,666
all the leftover waste
from today's reactors.

258
00:14:14,690 --> 00:14:18,481
So instead of worrying about them,
you just take that, it's a great thing.

259
00:14:18,828 --> 00:14:23,323
It breeds this uranium as it goes along,
so it's kind of like a candle.

260
00:14:23,347 --> 00:14:27,079
You see it's a log there, often
referred to as a traveling wave reactor.

261
00:14:27,500 --> 00:14:31,419
In terms of fuel,
this really solves the problem.

262
00:14:31,443 --> 00:14:34,344
I've got a picture here
of a place in Kentucky.

263
00:14:34,368 --> 00:14:36,568
This is the leftover, the 99 percent,

264
00:14:36,592 --> 00:14:38,822
where they've taken out
the part they burn now,

265
00:14:38,846 --> 00:14:40,416
so it's called depleted uranium.

266
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,287
That would power the US
for hundreds of years.

267
00:14:43,311 --> 00:14:46,846
And simply by filtering seawater
in an inexpensive process,

268
00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:50,679
you'd have enough fuel for the entire
lifetime of the rest of the planet.

269
00:14:51,054 --> 00:14:55,115
So, you know, it's got lots
of challenges ahead,

270
00:14:55,139 --> 00:15:00,534
but it is an example of the many
hundreds and hundreds of ideas

271
00:15:00,558 --> 00:15:02,417
that we need to move forward.

272
00:15:03,407 --> 00:15:06,105
So let's think: How should
we measure ourselves?

273
00:15:06,129 --> 00:15:08,976
What should our report card look like?

274
00:15:09,356 --> 00:15:11,880
Well, let's go out to where
we really need to get,

275
00:15:11,904 --> 00:15:14,047
and then look at the intermediate.

276
00:15:14,071 --> 00:15:19,093
For 2050, you've heard many people
talk about this 80 percent reduction.

277
00:15:19,842 --> 00:15:22,894
That really is very important,
that we get there.

278
00:15:22,918 --> 00:15:27,339
And that 20 percent will be used up
by things going on in poor countries --

279
00:15:27,363 --> 00:15:32,757
still some agriculture; hopefully,
we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.

280
00:15:32,781 --> 00:15:35,770
So, to get to that 80 percent,

281
00:15:35,794 --> 00:15:40,299
the developed countries,
including countries like China,

282
00:15:40,323 --> 00:15:44,722
will have had to switch
their electricity generation altogether.

283
00:15:45,125 --> 00:15:50,976
The other grade is: Are we deploying
this zero-emission technology,

284
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,397
have we deployed it
in all the developed countries

285
00:15:53,421 --> 00:15:56,208
and are in the process
of getting it elsewhere?

286
00:15:56,232 --> 00:15:57,976
That's super important.

287
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,339
That's a key element
of making that report card.

288
00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:06,305
Backing up from there, what should
the 2020 report card look like?

289
00:16:06,755 --> 00:16:09,073
Well, again, it should have
the two elements.

290
00:16:09,097 --> 00:16:13,236
We should go through these efficiency
measures to start getting reductions:

291
00:16:13,260 --> 00:16:16,524
The less we emit,
the less that sum will be of CO2,

292
00:16:16,548 --> 00:16:18,620
and therefore, the less the temperature.

293
00:16:18,644 --> 00:16:21,573
But in some ways, the grade we get there,

294
00:16:21,597 --> 00:16:25,841
doing things that don't get us
all the way to the big reductions,

295
00:16:25,865 --> 00:16:29,709
is only equally, or maybe even slightly
less, important than the other,

296
00:16:29,733 --> 00:16:33,489
which is the piece of innovation
on these breakthroughs.

297
00:16:33,513 --> 00:16:36,751
These breakthroughs,
we need to move those at full speed,

298
00:16:36,775 --> 00:16:39,200
and we can measure that
in terms of companies,

299
00:16:39,224 --> 00:16:42,118
pilot projects, regulatory things
that have been changed.

300
00:16:42,598 --> 00:16:45,572
There's a lot of great books
that have been written about this.

301
00:16:45,596 --> 00:16:47,976
The Al Gore book, "Our Choice,"

302
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,580
and the David MacKay book,
"Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."

303
00:16:51,604 --> 00:16:54,780
They really go through it
and create a framework

304
00:16:54,804 --> 00:16:56,637
that this can be discussed broadly,

305
00:16:56,661 --> 00:16:58,618
because we need broad backing for this.

306
00:16:58,986 --> 00:17:01,213
There's a lot that has to come together.

307
00:17:01,237 --> 00:17:02,719
So this is a wish.

308
00:17:02,743 --> 00:17:06,920
It's a very concrete wish
that we invent this technology.

309
00:17:07,372 --> 00:17:10,461
If you gave me only one wish
for the next 50 years --

310
00:17:10,485 --> 00:17:12,462
I could pick who's president,

311
00:17:12,486 --> 00:17:15,248
I could pick a vaccine,
which is something I love,

312
00:17:15,272 --> 00:17:17,329
or I could pick that this thing

313
00:17:17,353 --> 00:17:20,814
that's half the cost with no CO2
gets invented --

314
00:17:20,838 --> 00:17:22,745
this is the wish I would pick.

315
00:17:22,769 --> 00:17:24,854
This is the one with the greatest impact.

316
00:17:24,878 --> 00:17:26,523
If we don't get this wish,

317
00:17:26,547 --> 00:17:29,985
the division between the people
who think short term and long term

318
00:17:30,009 --> 00:17:31,167
will be terrible,

319
00:17:31,191 --> 00:17:34,135
between the US and China,
between poor countries and rich,

320
00:17:34,159 --> 00:17:35,353
and most of all,

321
00:17:35,377 --> 00:17:38,441
the lives of those two billion
will be far worse.

322
00:17:39,158 --> 00:17:40,976
So what do we have to do?

323
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:45,824
What am I appealing to you
to step forward and drive?

324
00:17:46,189 --> 00:17:48,770
We need to go for more research funding.

325
00:17:49,190 --> 00:17:51,815
When countries get together
in places like Copenhagen,

326
00:17:51,839 --> 00:17:54,258
they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.

327
00:17:54,282 --> 00:17:56,649
They should discuss
this innovation agenda.

328
00:17:56,673 --> 00:18:00,976
You'd be stunned at the ridiculously
low levels of spending

329
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:02,715
on these innovative approaches.

330
00:18:03,183 --> 00:18:06,976
We do need the market incentives --
CO2 tax, cap and trade --

331
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,524
something that gets
that price signal out there.

332
00:18:09,881 --> 00:18:11,479
We need to get the message out.

333
00:18:11,503 --> 00:18:13,907
We need to have this dialogue
be a more rational,

334
00:18:13,931 --> 00:18:15,521
more understandable dialogue,

335
00:18:15,545 --> 00:18:18,076
including the steps
that the government takes.

336
00:18:18,100 --> 00:18:21,750
This is an important wish,
but it is one I think we can achieve.

337
00:18:22,416 --> 00:18:23,569
Thank you.

338
00:18:23,593 --> 00:18:30,593
(Applause)

339
00:18:32,975 --> 00:18:34,976
(Applause ends)

340
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:36,216
Thank you.

341
00:18:37,303 --> 00:18:39,148
Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.

342
00:18:39,172 --> 00:18:44,233
(Applause)

343
00:18:44,257 --> 00:18:45,755
CA: Thank you.

344
00:18:45,779 --> 00:18:49,841
So to understand more about TerraPower.

345
00:18:50,399 --> 00:18:54,393
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense
of what scale of investment this is?

346
00:18:54,898 --> 00:18:59,232
Bill Gates: To actually do the software,
buy the supercomputer,

347
00:18:59,256 --> 00:19:01,585
hire all the great scientists,
which we've done,

348
00:19:01,609 --> 00:19:03,866
that's only tens of millions.

349
00:19:03,890 --> 00:19:07,838
And even once we test our materials out
in a Russian reactor

350
00:19:07,862 --> 00:19:11,037
to make sure our materials work properly,

351
00:19:11,061 --> 00:19:13,578
then you'll only be up
in the hundreds of millions.

352
00:19:13,602 --> 00:19:15,960
The tough thing
is building the pilot reactor --

353
00:19:15,984 --> 00:19:20,788
finding the several billion,
finding the regulator, the location

354
00:19:20,812 --> 00:19:23,071
that will actually build
the first one of these.

355
00:19:23,095 --> 00:19:27,257
Once you get the first one built,
if it works as advertised,

356
00:19:27,281 --> 00:19:28,631
then it's just clear as day,

357
00:19:28,655 --> 00:19:31,851
because the economics,
the energy density, are so different

358
00:19:31,875 --> 00:19:33,289
than nuclear as we know it.

359
00:19:33,313 --> 00:19:34,775
CA: So to understand it right,

360
00:19:34,799 --> 00:19:37,081
this involves building
deep into the ground,

361
00:19:37,105 --> 00:19:42,665
almost like a vertical column
of nuclear fuel, of this spent uranium,

362
00:19:42,689 --> 00:19:45,829
and then the process starts
at the top and kind of works down?

363
00:19:45,853 --> 00:19:47,030
BG: That's right.

364
00:19:47,054 --> 00:19:49,113
Today, you're always
refueling the reactor,

365
00:19:49,137 --> 00:19:52,329
so you have lots of people and lots
of controls that can go wrong,

366
00:19:52,353 --> 00:19:55,092
where you're opening it up
and moving things in and out --

367
00:19:55,116 --> 00:19:57,273
that's not good.

368
00:19:57,297 --> 00:19:58,470
So if you have very --

369
00:19:58,494 --> 00:19:59,583
(Laughter)

370
00:19:59,607 --> 00:20:02,354
very cheap fuel
that you can put 60 years in --

371
00:20:02,378 --> 00:20:03,932
just think of it as a log --

372
00:20:03,956 --> 00:20:07,494
put it down and not have
those same complexities.

373
00:20:07,518 --> 00:20:12,423
And it just sits there and burns
for the 60 years, and then it's done.

374
00:20:12,447 --> 00:20:16,385
CA: It's a nuclear power plant
that is its own waste disposal solution.

375
00:20:16,409 --> 00:20:18,303
BG: Yeah; what happens with the waste,

376
00:20:18,327 --> 00:20:23,707
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot
less waste under this approach --

377
00:20:23,731 --> 00:20:25,367
then you can actually take that

378
00:20:25,391 --> 00:20:27,976
and put it into another one and burn that.

379
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:32,206
And we start out, actually,
by taking the waste that exists today

380
00:20:32,230 --> 00:20:36,462
that's sitting in these cooling pools
or dry-casking by reactors --

381
00:20:36,486 --> 00:20:38,638
that's our fuel to begin with.

382
00:20:38,662 --> 00:20:41,269
So the thing that's been a problem
from those reactors

383
00:20:41,293 --> 00:20:43,220
is actually what gets fed into ours,

384
00:20:43,244 --> 00:20:46,231
and you're reducing the volume
of the waste quite dramatically

385
00:20:46,255 --> 00:20:48,232
as you're going through this process.

386
00:20:48,256 --> 00:20:50,831
CA: You're talking
to different people around the world

387
00:20:50,855 --> 00:20:52,144
about the possibilities.

388
00:20:52,168 --> 00:20:55,576
Where is there most interest
in actually doing something with this?

389
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,755
BG: Well, we haven't picked
a particular place,

390
00:20:59,779 --> 00:21:03,239
and there's all these interesting
disclosure rules

391
00:21:03,263 --> 00:21:05,739
about anything that's called "nuclear."

392
00:21:05,763 --> 00:21:08,692
So we've got a lot of interest.

393
00:21:08,716 --> 00:21:11,791
People from the company
have been in Russia, India, China.

394
00:21:11,815 --> 00:21:14,429
I've been back seeing
the secretary of energy here,

395
00:21:14,453 --> 00:21:17,785
talking about how this fits
into the energy agenda.

396
00:21:17,809 --> 00:21:19,385
So I'm optimistic.

397
00:21:19,409 --> 00:21:21,586
The French and Japanese
have done some work.

398
00:21:21,610 --> 00:21:25,270
This is a variant on something
that has been done.

399
00:21:25,294 --> 00:21:28,976
It's an important advance,
but it's like a fast reactor,

400
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,976
and a lot of countries have built them,

401
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,574
so anybody who's done
a fast reactor is a candidate

402
00:21:33,598 --> 00:21:35,976
to be where the first one gets built.

403
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,442
CA: So, in your mind,

404
00:21:39,466 --> 00:21:44,224
timescale and likelihood of actually
taking something like this live?

405
00:21:44,248 --> 00:21:50,335
BG: Well, we need -- for one of these
high-scale, electro-generation things

406
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:51,517
that's very cheap,

407
00:21:51,541 --> 00:21:55,219
we have 20 years to invent
and then 20 years to deploy.

408
00:21:55,243 --> 00:21:56,999
That's sort of the deadline

409
00:21:57,023 --> 00:22:02,281
that the environmental models
have shown us that we have to meet.

410
00:22:02,305 --> 00:22:07,717
And TerraPower -- if things go well,
which is wishing for a lot --

411
00:22:07,741 --> 00:22:09,384
could easily meet that.

412
00:22:09,408 --> 00:22:12,680
And there are, fortunately
now, dozens of companies --

413
00:22:12,704 --> 00:22:14,055
we need it to be hundreds --

414
00:22:14,079 --> 00:22:16,296
who, likewise, if their science goes well,

415
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,215
if the funding for their pilot
plants goes well,

416
00:22:19,239 --> 00:22:21,265
that they can compete for this.

417
00:22:21,289 --> 00:22:23,263
And it's best if multiple succeed,

418
00:22:23,287 --> 00:22:25,976
because then you could use
a mix of these things.

419
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,081
We certainly need one to succeed.

420
00:22:28,105 --> 00:22:31,064
CA: In terms of big-scale
possible game changers,

421
00:22:31,088 --> 00:22:33,822
is this the biggest
that you're aware of out there?

422
00:22:33,846 --> 00:22:38,195
BG: An energy breakthrough
is the most important thing.

423
00:22:38,219 --> 00:22:41,202
It would have been, even
without the environmental constraint,

424
00:22:41,226 --> 00:22:45,089
but the environmental constraint
just makes it so much greater.

425
00:22:45,113 --> 00:22:48,437
In the nuclear space,
there are other innovators.

426
00:22:48,461 --> 00:22:51,451
You know, we don't know their work
as well as we know this one,

427
00:22:51,475 --> 00:22:54,732
but the modular people,
that's a different approach.

428
00:22:54,756 --> 00:22:58,361
There's a liquid-type reactor,
which seems a little hard,

429
00:22:58,385 --> 00:23:00,621
but maybe they say that about us.

430
00:23:00,645 --> 00:23:02,976
And so, there are different ones,

431
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,976
but the beauty of this
is a molecule of uranium

432
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:10,090
has a million times as much energy
as a molecule of, say, coal.

433
00:23:10,702 --> 00:23:13,718
And so, if you can
deal with the negatives,

434
00:23:13,742 --> 00:23:17,594
which are essentially the radiation,
the footprint and cost,

435
00:23:17,618 --> 00:23:21,609
the potential, in terms of effect
on land and various things,

436
00:23:21,633 --> 00:23:24,976
is almost in a class of its own.

437
00:23:26,039 --> 00:23:29,678
CA: If this doesn't work, then what?

438
00:23:29,702 --> 00:23:32,976
Do we have to start taking
emergency measures

439
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,098
to try and keep the temperature
of the earth stable?

440
00:23:36,122 --> 00:23:37,976
BG: If you get into that situation,

441
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:42,976
it's like if you've been overeating,
and you're about to have a heart attack.

442
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,525
Then where do you go?

443
00:23:45,549 --> 00:23:47,482
You may need heart surgery or something.

444
00:23:47,506 --> 00:23:51,376
There is a line of research
on what's called geoengineering,

445
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,377
which are various techniques
that would delay the heating

446
00:23:54,401 --> 00:23:57,687
to buy us 20 or 30 years
to get our act together.

447
00:23:57,711 --> 00:24:01,319
Now, that's just an insurance policy;
you hope you don't need to do that.

448
00:24:01,343 --> 00:24:04,385
Some people say you shouldn't even
work on the insurance policy

449
00:24:04,409 --> 00:24:05,930
because it might make you lazy,

450
00:24:05,954 --> 00:24:09,820
that you'll keep eating because you know
heart surgery will be there to save you.

451
00:24:09,844 --> 00:24:12,961
I'm not sure that's wise,
given the importance of the problem,

452
00:24:12,985 --> 00:24:16,086
but there's now
the geoengineering discussion

453
00:24:16,110 --> 00:24:20,317
about: Should that be in the back
pocket in case things happen faster,

454
00:24:20,341 --> 00:24:23,828
or this innovation goes
a lot slower than we expect?

455
00:24:25,549 --> 00:24:27,350
CA: Climate skeptics:

456
00:24:27,374 --> 00:24:30,880
If you had a sentence or two
to say to them,

457
00:24:30,904 --> 00:24:34,513
how might you persuade them
that they're wrong?

458
00:24:35,645 --> 00:24:38,696
BG: Well, unfortunately,
the skeptics come in different camps.

459
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,161
The ones who make scientific
arguments are very few.

460
00:24:43,185 --> 00:24:46,174
Are they saying there's negative
feedback effects

461
00:24:46,198 --> 00:24:48,400
that have to do with clouds
that offset things?

462
00:24:48,424 --> 00:24:51,732
There are very, very few things
that they can even say

463
00:24:51,756 --> 00:24:54,403
there's a chance
in a million of those things.

464
00:24:54,427 --> 00:24:57,631
The main problem we have here --
it's kind of like with AIDS:

465
00:24:57,655 --> 00:25:01,458
you make the mistake now,
and you pay for it a lot later.

466
00:25:01,482 --> 00:25:04,737
And so, when you have
all sorts of urgent problems,

467
00:25:04,761 --> 00:25:08,822
the idea of taking pain now
that has to do with a gain later,

468
00:25:08,846 --> 00:25:11,132
and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.

469
00:25:11,156 --> 00:25:17,244
In fact, the IPCC report --
that's not necessarily the worst case,

470
00:25:17,268 --> 00:25:21,343
and there are people in the rich world
who look at IPCC and say,

471
00:25:21,367 --> 00:25:23,151
"OK, that isn't that big of a deal."

472
00:25:23,175 --> 00:25:27,324
The fact is it's that uncertain part
that should move us towards this.

473
00:25:27,348 --> 00:25:28,980
But my dream here is that,

474
00:25:29,004 --> 00:25:32,664
if you can make it economic,
and meet the CO2 constraints,

475
00:25:32,688 --> 00:25:33,847
then the skeptics say,

476
00:25:33,871 --> 00:25:36,151
"OK, I don't care
that it doesn't put out CO2,

477
00:25:36,175 --> 00:25:37,855
I kind of wish it did put out CO2.

478
00:25:37,879 --> 00:25:39,235
But I guess I'll accept it,

479
00:25:39,259 --> 00:25:41,976
because it's cheaper
than what's come before."

480
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:46,831
(Applause)

481
00:25:46,855 --> 00:25:50,035
CA: So that would be your response
to the Bjørn Lomborg argument,

482
00:25:50,059 --> 00:25:54,515
basically if you spend all this energy
trying to solve the CO2 problem,

483
00:25:54,539 --> 00:25:56,633
it's going to take away
all your other goals

484
00:25:56,657 --> 00:25:59,650
of trying to rid the world
of poverty and malaria and so forth,

485
00:25:59,674 --> 00:26:01,907
it's a stupid waste
of the Earth's resources

486
00:26:01,931 --> 00:26:03,204
to put money towards that

487
00:26:03,228 --> 00:26:05,146
when there are better things we can do.

488
00:26:05,170 --> 00:26:08,561
BG: Well, the actual
spending on the R&D piece --

489
00:26:08,585 --> 00:26:12,081
say the US should spend 10 billion a year
more than it is right now --

490
00:26:12,105 --> 00:26:13,976
it's not that dramatic.

491
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,976
It shouldn't take away from other things.

492
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,420
The thing you get into big money on,
and reasonable people can disagree,

493
00:26:19,444 --> 00:26:21,610
is when you have something
that's non-economic

494
00:26:21,634 --> 00:26:23,253
and you're trying to fund that --

495
00:26:23,277 --> 00:26:25,205
that, to me, mostly is a waste.

496
00:26:25,229 --> 00:26:26,776
Unless you're very close,

497
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,444
and you're just funding the learning curve
and it's going to get very cheap,

498
00:26:30,468 --> 00:26:33,266
I believe we should try more things

499
00:26:33,290 --> 00:26:35,976
that have a potential
to be far less expensive.

500
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:41,192
If the trade-off you get into is,
"Let's make energy super expensive,"

501
00:26:41,216 --> 00:26:43,238
then the rich can afford that.

502
00:26:43,262 --> 00:26:46,391
I mean, all of us here could pay
five times as much for our energy

503
00:26:46,415 --> 00:26:47,806
and not change our lifestyle.

504
00:26:47,830 --> 00:26:50,094
The disaster is for that two billion.

505
00:26:50,118 --> 00:26:52,425
And even Lomborg has changed.

506
00:26:52,449 --> 00:26:56,976
His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D
getting more discussed?"

507
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,513
He's still, because of his earlier stuff,

508
00:26:59,537 --> 00:27:01,437
still associated with the skeptic camp,

509
00:27:01,461 --> 00:27:04,234
but he's realized
that's a pretty lonely camp,

510
00:27:04,258 --> 00:27:07,516
and so, he's making the R&D point.

511
00:27:07,540 --> 00:27:11,976
And so there is a thread of something
that I think is appropriate.

512
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,976
The R&D piece --
it's crazy how little it's funded.

513
00:27:15,556 --> 00:27:18,843
CA: Well, Bill, I suspect I speak
on behalf of most people here

514
00:27:18,867 --> 00:27:20,935
to say I really hope your wish comes true.

515
00:27:20,959 --> 00:27:22,131
Thank you so much.

516
00:27:22,155 --> 00:27:23,306
BG: Thank you.

517
00:27:23,330 --> 00:27:28,722
(Applause)