Japan Resurgence | Kazuto Ataka | TEDxTokyo

Kazuto Ataka, chief strategy officer of "Yahoo! Japan", talks about Japan's current position lagging behind in the industrial revolution of information, and explores the possibility of catching up.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

Hello, everyone. How are you?

My name is Ataka.

I was asked to come here today
to speak about Japan's current situation,

and our prospects for the future.

My talk is titled "Japan Resurgence."

(Laughter)

Soon you will see why I chose this title.

Let me recap our current situation.

I think the biggest change in the world
over the past 30 years

is that people carry portable computers.

30 years ago, the fastest supercomputer
of the time was built by Cray.

Now, you carry something
over 10 times faster in your pocket.

iPhone 6 is 20 times faster.

iPhone 7 and over is even faster.

Everyone is carrying around
an unbelievably fast computer.

Bandwidth is also increasing
at a tremendous rate,

over 1,000-fold during the last decade.

In the 20 years since
the start of "Yahoo! Japan,"

it has become over 10,000 times faster.

And with the arrival of 5G,

the speed is set to be
another 1,000 times faster.

OK?

Recently, the biggest packet plan
increased from 15GB to 50GB.

In 5 to 10 years, a 1-month plan
will be something like 5 terabytes.

The age of the 5TB plan is coming!

(Laughter)

What an amazing era!

This is called "big data".

A tremendous amount of data is emerging.

Fortunately, computers are evolving
at an incredible speed.

The number of chips is increasing
with remarkable momentum,

so processing capability increases, too.

Here is another lucky thing,

which is mostly thanks to
the computers and data.

We can now visualize data
which was previously impossible to see.

We are running neural networks,
which couldn't be done before,

and deep learning is up and running.

So, all kinds of abnormal patterns
which were invisible before,

hidden in a huge amount of data,

these patterns are now becoming visibile.

As a result, we live in a unique time,
close to an industrial revolution.

The industrial revolution occurred
over the course of a few hundred years.

Around the turn of the 19th century,

over 90% of Japanese, Americans
and people in other areas

were engaged in primary industry.

96% in the U.S. at that time.

But now, only a small percentage does.

In spite of that, our current productivity
is much higher.

Similarly, we now use most of our time
for information processing,

but with the next industrial revolution,
we will be released from that burden.

I think we live in an extremely important,
and interesting time.

We need to embrace living in this time.

It is ridiculously lucky,
and super interesting.

It's like living in a bonus round.

(Laughter)

Yes, it is.

A professor at Berkeley claims
to have researched human productivity

for the past 2,000 years, and actually
as far back as a million years.

I don't know if he is correct,
but according to him,

from the Roman Empire
to the industrial revolution,

in those 2,000 years,
human productivity only doubled

However, during the 150 years after that,

the productivity skyrocketed
by nearly 100 times.

But looking carefully,

we are reaching saturation now,
from a macroeconomic perspective.

The way things are right now,
we may soon see another big leap.

Here is a very interesting sign.

Let's look at market
capitalization rankings.

Top ranks go to ICT companies

from the information and communications
technology industry.

Alibaba and Amazon are above Toyota,
one of the world's top automobile makers.

As for GDP, measured
through gross value added,

Japan has had no ICT sector
for the past 20 years,

and we have had a shrinking economy.

Actually, the tendency is similar
across the world:

the ICT sector is the driver for growth.

The interesting thing is,

it is not so much the profit,
but the market cap that is really big.

It seems a sense of "changing the world"
leads to success.

In other words, this is an astonishing era
in which dreaming creates wealth.

It is not hard work, but imagination
that generates national wealth.

Keeping that in mind,
how should we move forward?

I think the following three things are
very important.

First, use a massive amount
of big data in various fields.

Second, process the data
with tremendous power at affordable costs.

Third, of course we need
world-class scientists and engineers

to work very hard.

Here we will need to face an inconvenient
truth that is rarely mentioned in Japan.

The first data is...

To tell the truth,

it's really no competition.

We aren't even close, in any field,
when it comes to using data.

Of course there are autonomous cars
and other advanced technologies,

but in terms of room sharing, car sharing,
and other industries that use data,

personal information protection laws
make them impossible.

In Japan, anyways.

With autonomous cars, for example,
there are other problems.

There is a high possibility
that Japan could make

the world's top autonomous car.

But look at Japanese roads -

impossible!

(Laughter)

It is impossible!

(Laughter)

An old lady comes driving the other way

yelling at you to get out of the way,

so you have to pull into a driveway,
or back up 10 meters to pass each other.

Automatic cars can't do that,
they completely stop.

Some say to solve it with technology.

Sure, we could make flying cars
or cars with legs.

But the car would cost 30 million yen,
so it's impossible.

Even if we try flying drones,
look at this.

See?

This is Minato-ku, Tokyo.

It is a mixture of one-story
and 50-story buildings.

Most of buildings in Paris are flat,
except for the Eiffel Tower.

So they can use drone zones
to fly, but we can't.

As for data processing,

Basically, the only expense
for data processing should be electricity.

But we pay a lot.

Data processing costs are huge
in Japan for some reason.

And how about data processing solutions?

These are only a few of the options,
but there is no Japanese presence.

So, Japan is far behind
on data processing.

In fact, the situation is terrible.

One of the core technologies,
deep learning, has a few key centers,

and experts of ITC industry
gather in these areas,

they are famous.

They all live abroad,
mostly in the U.S. and U.K.

This is the situation.

You may think
there are engineers in Japan.

Yes, there are many.

But only 1/3 as many as the U.S.

Notice the hidden area in the middle?

We may think subconsciously
that Japan ranks second, after the U.S.

That is not true.

We are losing to China and India.

This is our reality.

Even fewer people are using big data,

so we might actually
rank around 7th or 8th.

There is a shortage
of people who work with numbers.

Japan has 100,000 less yearly graduates
in science and technology than Korea,

which has a population
of only 50 million.

Korea and Germany consider themselves
to be tech-oriented nations;

over 60% of their
college students major in science

but only 20% in Japan.

People like me who study
to get PhDs are considered strange,

like some freak of nature.

So what caused this situation?

The number of the people
with analytical training is very small,

1/3 of the number in the U.S.
per 100 people.

Compared to Poland,
a math-oriented nation,

we are one digit column lower.

We lack not only people,
but programs as well.

The U.S. didn't have any
data science programs either,

but in just one year
they started over 500.

In Japan, Shiga University will finally
open a program in spring, 2017.

We have none at all.

It is a complete shortage of personnel.

Not only are people difficult to find,

they don't have much enterprising spirit.

We live in an era where anyone
could be the next Edison,

and yet people lack motivation.

We don't need otaku, we need people
who want to change the world.

Of course we need hackers and geeks;

we don't have enough of them,
and that is why we can't compete globally.

(Laughter)

We have had such an era before.

We have had very difficult times.

Once again, we have
almost nothing to offer.

Do we have no hope in Japan?

Looking back to the Industrial Revolution,

it actually had three phases.

New technologies were invented
in the late 1750's,

and then they were put to practical use.

Finally they came together even further,

forming a kind of intricate ecosystem.

What was Japan doing at that time?

During Phase 1,
samurai were tying up their hair.

Over 90% of people worked in rice fields.

That continued for over 100 years,
so Japan didn't participate in Phase 1.

Then Japan suddenly adopted new technology

and made tremendous progress.

We made bullet trains and super computers,

and Japan became a high-tech nation.

Once again,
we have obviously missed Phase 1,

but let's not worry about that.

(Laughter)

We should focus on preparing
for the upcoming Phase 2 and 3.

This is my proposal.

(Laughter)

We still have potential.

Japan didn't experience
Phase 1 in the past, either.

So it's not a problem.

(Laughter)

The other big waves,
Phase 2 and 3, are coming!

We should prepare to ride those waves.

We are full of great concepts in Japan.

We have Ghost in the Shell, Doraemon...

there are so many excellent ideas.

Wouldn't these would be perfect
for Phase 2 and Phase 3?

(Laughter)

We have material.

We have ideas.

We can win again!

(Laughter)

Here is an emotional line
from a recent film.

"Japan rose up through scrap and build,

and we will rise again."

These are lines
from "Godzilla Resurgence."

We are faced with extreme circumstances,

and we are almost scrapped.

But let's try again!

Let's start fresh,
and enjoy the competition.

That's all I have to say.

Thank you.

(Applause)