1 00:00:15,650 --> 00:00:17,268 Hello, everyone. How are you? 2 00:00:17,728 --> 00:00:19,218 My name is Ataka. 3 00:00:20,289 --> 00:00:26,959 I was asked to come here today to speak about Japan's current situation, 4 00:00:26,969 --> 00:00:29,797 and our prospects for the future. 5 00:00:29,797 --> 00:00:32,772 My talk is titled "Japan Resurgence." 6 00:00:32,772 --> 00:00:33,587 (Laughter) 7 00:00:33,587 --> 00:00:36,352 Soon you will see why I chose this title. 8 00:00:36,352 --> 00:00:41,272 Let me recap our current situation. 9 00:00:41,883 --> 00:00:47,394 I think the biggest change in the world over the past 30 years 10 00:00:47,394 --> 00:00:50,506 is that people carry portable computers. 11 00:00:50,506 --> 00:00:54,116 30 years ago, the fastest supercomputer of the time was built by Cray. 12 00:00:54,116 --> 00:00:57,246 Now, you carry something over 10 times faster in your pocket. 13 00:00:57,246 --> 00:00:59,336 iPhone 6 is 20 times faster. 14 00:00:59,336 --> 00:01:01,086 iPhone 7 and over is even faster. 15 00:01:01,086 --> 00:01:04,225 Everyone is carrying around an unbelievably fast computer. 16 00:01:04,745 --> 00:01:08,766 Bandwidth is also increasing at a tremendous rate, 17 00:01:08,776 --> 00:01:11,492 over 1,000-fold during the last decade. 18 00:01:11,492 --> 00:01:14,032 In the 20 years since the start of "Yahoo! Japan," 19 00:01:14,032 --> 00:01:16,008 it has become over 10,000 times faster. 20 00:01:16,008 --> 00:01:17,955 And with the arrival of 5G, 21 00:01:17,955 --> 00:01:20,822 the speed is set to be another 1,000 times faster. 22 00:01:20,822 --> 00:01:21,842 OK? 23 00:01:21,842 --> 00:01:25,182 Recently, the biggest packet plan increased from 15GB to 50GB. 24 00:01:25,182 --> 00:01:29,482 In 5 to 10 years, a 1-month plan will be something like 5 terabytes. 25 00:01:29,482 --> 00:01:31,486 The age of the 5TB plan is coming! 26 00:01:31,486 --> 00:01:32,326 (Laughter) 27 00:01:32,326 --> 00:01:33,736 What an amazing era! 28 00:01:34,069 --> 00:01:36,119 This is called "big data". 29 00:01:36,119 --> 00:01:39,139 A tremendous amount of data is emerging. 30 00:01:39,139 --> 00:01:44,189 Fortunately, computers are evolving at an incredible speed. 31 00:01:44,539 --> 00:01:48,009 The number of chips is increasing with remarkable momentum, 32 00:01:48,009 --> 00:01:50,089 so processing capability increases, too. 33 00:01:50,089 --> 00:01:51,819 Here is another lucky thing, 34 00:01:51,819 --> 00:01:55,467 which is mostly thanks to the computers and data. 35 00:01:55,897 --> 00:02:00,087 We can now visualize data which was previously impossible to see. 36 00:02:00,594 --> 00:02:04,374 We are running neural networks, which couldn't be done before, 37 00:02:04,374 --> 00:02:06,584 and deep learning is up and running. 38 00:02:06,784 --> 00:02:09,776 So, all kinds of abnormal patterns which were invisible before, 39 00:02:09,776 --> 00:02:13,036 hidden in a huge amount of data, 40 00:02:13,036 --> 00:02:15,516 these patterns are now becoming visibile. 41 00:02:15,516 --> 00:02:21,036 As a result, we live in a unique time, close to an industrial revolution. 42 00:02:21,766 --> 00:02:26,596 The industrial revolution occurred over the course of a few hundred years. 43 00:02:26,596 --> 00:02:29,916 Around the turn of the 19th century, 44 00:02:29,916 --> 00:02:33,086 over 90% of Japanese, Americans and people in other areas 45 00:02:33,086 --> 00:02:36,716 were engaged in primary industry. 46 00:02:36,716 --> 00:02:38,976 96% in the U.S. at that time. 47 00:02:38,976 --> 00:02:41,014 But now, only a small percentage does. 48 00:02:41,014 --> 00:02:44,817 In spite of that, our current productivity is much higher. 49 00:02:44,817 --> 00:02:50,857 Similarly, we now use most of our time for information processing, 50 00:02:50,857 --> 00:02:55,157 but with the next industrial revolution, we will be released from that burden. 51 00:02:55,157 --> 00:03:00,816 I think we live in an extremely important, and interesting time. 52 00:03:00,816 --> 00:03:03,906 We need to embrace living in this time. 53 00:03:03,906 --> 00:03:06,753 It is ridiculously lucky, and super interesting. 54 00:03:06,753 --> 00:03:08,455 It's like living in a bonus round. 55 00:03:08,455 --> 00:03:09,398 (Laughter) 56 00:03:09,398 --> 00:03:10,511 Yes, it is. 57 00:03:10,511 --> 00:03:15,051 A professor at Berkeley claims to have researched human productivity 58 00:03:15,051 --> 00:03:18,993 for the past 2,000 years, and actually as far back as a million years. 59 00:03:19,553 --> 00:03:22,966 I don't know if he is correct, but according to him, 60 00:03:22,966 --> 00:03:26,128 from the Roman Empire to the industrial revolution, 61 00:03:26,128 --> 00:03:28,698 in those 2,000 years, human productivity only doubled 62 00:03:28,698 --> 00:03:31,228 However, during the 150 years after that, 63 00:03:31,228 --> 00:03:34,876 the productivity skyrocketed by nearly 100 times. 64 00:03:34,876 --> 00:03:36,176 But looking carefully, 65 00:03:36,176 --> 00:03:39,276 we are reaching saturation now, from a macroeconomic perspective. 66 00:03:39,276 --> 00:03:43,646 The way things are right now, we may soon see another big leap. 67 00:03:44,103 --> 00:03:46,873 Here is a very interesting sign. 68 00:03:46,873 --> 00:03:49,423 Let's look at market capitalization rankings. 69 00:03:49,423 --> 00:03:51,323 Top ranks go to ICT companies 70 00:03:51,323 --> 00:03:54,353 from the information and communications technology industry. 71 00:03:54,353 --> 00:03:59,557 Alibaba and Amazon are above Toyota, one of the world's top automobile makers. 72 00:04:00,982 --> 00:04:03,785 As for GDP, measured through gross value added, 73 00:04:03,785 --> 00:04:06,275 Japan has had no ICT sector for the past 20 years, 74 00:04:06,275 --> 00:04:08,415 and we have had a shrinking economy. 75 00:04:08,415 --> 00:04:11,585 Actually, the tendency is similar across the world: 76 00:04:11,585 --> 00:04:14,845 the ICT sector is the driver for growth. 77 00:04:15,745 --> 00:04:17,238 The interesting thing is, 78 00:04:17,238 --> 00:04:21,164 it is not so much the profit, but the market cap that is really big. 79 00:04:21,164 --> 00:04:24,544 It seems a sense of "changing the world" leads to success. 80 00:04:24,544 --> 00:04:29,838 In other words, this is an astonishing era in which dreaming creates wealth. 81 00:04:29,838 --> 00:04:34,388 It is not hard work, but imagination that generates national wealth. 82 00:04:34,388 --> 00:04:38,587 Keeping that in mind, how should we move forward? 83 00:04:39,047 --> 00:04:43,470 I think the following three things are very important. 84 00:04:43,470 --> 00:04:49,499 First, use a massive amount of big data in various fields. 85 00:04:49,819 --> 00:04:56,269 Second, process the data with tremendous power at affordable costs. 86 00:04:56,429 --> 00:05:01,949 Third, of course we need world-class scientists and engineers 87 00:05:01,949 --> 00:05:04,365 to work very hard. 88 00:05:04,365 --> 00:05:10,145 Here we will need to face an inconvenient truth that is rarely mentioned in Japan. 89 00:05:10,672 --> 00:05:12,322 The first data is... 90 00:05:12,322 --> 00:05:14,838 To tell the truth, 91 00:05:14,838 --> 00:05:17,838 it's really no competition. 92 00:05:17,838 --> 00:05:24,348 We aren't even close, in any field, when it comes to using data. 93 00:05:24,348 --> 00:05:28,715 Of course there are autonomous cars and other advanced technologies, 94 00:05:28,715 --> 00:05:34,015 but in terms of room sharing, car sharing, and other industries that use data, 95 00:05:34,015 --> 00:05:37,325 personal information protection laws make them impossible. 96 00:05:37,325 --> 00:05:38,805 In Japan, anyways. 97 00:05:38,805 --> 00:05:42,375 With autonomous cars, for example, there are other problems. 98 00:05:42,375 --> 00:05:44,965 There is a high possibility that Japan could make 99 00:05:44,965 --> 00:05:47,095 the world's top autonomous car. 100 00:05:47,095 --> 00:05:49,185 But look at Japanese roads - 101 00:05:49,752 --> 00:05:51,122 impossible! 102 00:05:51,266 --> 00:05:52,186 (Laughter) 103 00:05:52,257 --> 00:05:53,338 It is impossible! 104 00:05:53,338 --> 00:05:54,271 (Laughter) 105 00:05:55,891 --> 00:05:58,311 An old lady comes driving the other way 106 00:05:58,311 --> 00:06:00,831 yelling at you to get out of the way, 107 00:06:00,831 --> 00:06:05,691 so you have to pull into a driveway, or back up 10 meters to pass each other. 108 00:06:05,691 --> 00:06:08,511 Automatic cars can't do that, they completely stop. 109 00:06:08,511 --> 00:06:11,311 Some say to solve it with technology. 110 00:06:11,313 --> 00:06:15,723 Sure, we could make flying cars or cars with legs. 111 00:06:15,723 --> 00:06:19,123 But the car would cost 30 million yen, so it's impossible. 112 00:06:19,123 --> 00:06:21,713 Even if we try flying drones, look at this. 113 00:06:21,713 --> 00:06:22,501 See? 114 00:06:22,501 --> 00:06:23,896 This is Minato-ku, Tokyo. 115 00:06:23,896 --> 00:06:27,266 It is a mixture of one-story and 50-story buildings. 116 00:06:27,792 --> 00:06:30,992 Most of buildings in Paris are flat, except for the Eiffel Tower. 117 00:06:30,992 --> 00:06:34,602 So they can use drone zones to fly, but we can't. 118 00:06:35,349 --> 00:06:38,449 As for data processing, 119 00:06:39,493 --> 00:06:44,013 Basically, the only expense for data processing should be electricity. 120 00:06:44,013 --> 00:06:45,653 But we pay a lot. 121 00:06:45,653 --> 00:06:48,403 Data processing costs are huge in Japan for some reason. 122 00:06:48,403 --> 00:06:51,223 And how about data processing solutions? 123 00:06:51,223 --> 00:06:58,093 These are only a few of the options, but there is no Japanese presence. 124 00:06:59,313 --> 00:07:02,853 So, Japan is far behind on data processing. 125 00:07:02,853 --> 00:07:04,973 In fact, the situation is terrible. 126 00:07:04,973 --> 00:07:11,842 One of the core technologies, deep learning, has a few key centers, 127 00:07:12,387 --> 00:07:16,447 and experts of ITC industry gather in these areas, 128 00:07:16,447 --> 00:07:18,025 they are famous. 129 00:07:18,025 --> 00:07:22,485 They all live abroad, mostly in the U.S. and U.K. 130 00:07:22,905 --> 00:07:24,455 This is the situation. 131 00:07:24,455 --> 00:07:28,272 You may think there are engineers in Japan. 132 00:07:28,272 --> 00:07:30,410 Yes, there are many. 133 00:07:30,410 --> 00:07:32,400 But only 1/3 as many as the U.S. 134 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,090 Notice the hidden area in the middle? 135 00:07:35,090 --> 00:07:38,327 We may think subconsciously that Japan ranks second, after the U.S. 136 00:07:38,327 --> 00:07:39,457 That is not true. 137 00:07:39,457 --> 00:07:41,497 We are losing to China and India. 138 00:07:42,244 --> 00:07:43,314 This is our reality. 139 00:07:43,314 --> 00:07:45,174 Even fewer people are using big data, 140 00:07:45,174 --> 00:07:47,697 so we might actually rank around 7th or 8th. 141 00:07:47,697 --> 00:07:52,987 There is a shortage of people who work with numbers. 142 00:07:54,355 --> 00:08:00,075 Japan has 100,000 less yearly graduates in science and technology than Korea, 143 00:08:00,075 --> 00:08:03,575 which has a population of only 50 million. 144 00:08:03,575 --> 00:08:09,445 Korea and Germany consider themselves to be tech-oriented nations; 145 00:08:10,165 --> 00:08:12,635 over 60% of their college students major in science 146 00:08:12,635 --> 00:08:14,025 but only 20% in Japan. 147 00:08:14,025 --> 00:08:17,101 People like me who study to get PhDs are considered strange, 148 00:08:17,101 --> 00:08:19,501 like some freak of nature. 149 00:08:19,501 --> 00:08:22,690 So what caused this situation? 150 00:08:22,690 --> 00:08:26,980 The number of the people with analytical training is very small, 151 00:08:26,990 --> 00:08:29,707 1/3 of the number in the U.S. per 100 people. 152 00:08:29,707 --> 00:08:31,908 Compared to Poland, a math-oriented nation, 153 00:08:31,908 --> 00:08:33,748 we are one digit column lower. 154 00:08:33,748 --> 00:08:38,878 We lack not only people, but programs as well. 155 00:08:39,488 --> 00:08:42,578 The U.S. didn't have any data science programs either, 156 00:08:42,578 --> 00:08:45,228 but in just one year they started over 500. 157 00:08:45,228 --> 00:08:49,798 In Japan, Shiga University will finally open a program in spring, 2017. 158 00:08:49,798 --> 00:08:51,488 We have none at all. 159 00:08:51,488 --> 00:08:55,918 It is a complete shortage of personnel. 160 00:08:55,918 --> 00:08:59,488 Not only are people difficult to find, 161 00:08:59,488 --> 00:09:02,328 they don't have much enterprising spirit. 162 00:09:02,328 --> 00:09:04,978 We live in an era where anyone could be the next Edison, 163 00:09:04,978 --> 00:09:06,478 and yet people lack motivation. 164 00:09:06,478 --> 00:09:10,574 We don't need otaku, we need people who want to change the world. 165 00:09:10,574 --> 00:09:14,527 Of course we need hackers and geeks; 166 00:09:14,527 --> 00:09:18,843 we don't have enough of them, and that is why we can't compete globally. 167 00:09:18,843 --> 00:09:20,203 (Laughter) 168 00:09:20,613 --> 00:09:24,043 We have had such an era before. 169 00:09:24,043 --> 00:09:27,033 We have had very difficult times. 170 00:09:27,353 --> 00:09:31,353 Once again, we have almost nothing to offer. 171 00:09:31,877 --> 00:09:34,487 Do we have no hope in Japan? 172 00:09:34,487 --> 00:09:36,637 Looking back to the Industrial Revolution, 173 00:09:36,637 --> 00:09:39,161 it actually had three phases. 174 00:09:39,161 --> 00:09:43,431 New technologies were invented in the late 1750's, 175 00:09:43,431 --> 00:09:45,761 and then they were put to practical use. 176 00:09:45,761 --> 00:09:48,571 Finally they came together even further, 177 00:09:48,571 --> 00:09:52,225 forming a kind of intricate ecosystem. 178 00:09:52,225 --> 00:09:54,205 What was Japan doing at that time? 179 00:09:54,205 --> 00:09:58,115 During Phase 1, samurai were tying up their hair. 180 00:09:58,115 --> 00:10:00,975 Over 90% of people worked in rice fields. 181 00:10:00,975 --> 00:10:04,903 That continued for over 100 years, so Japan didn't participate in Phase 1. 182 00:10:04,903 --> 00:10:08,243 Then Japan suddenly adopted new technology 183 00:10:08,243 --> 00:10:10,633 and made tremendous progress. 184 00:10:10,934 --> 00:10:15,724 We made bullet trains and super computers, 185 00:10:15,724 --> 00:10:18,111 and Japan became a high-tech nation. 186 00:10:18,111 --> 00:10:22,011 Once again, we have obviously missed Phase 1, 187 00:10:22,011 --> 00:10:23,971 but let's not worry about that. 188 00:10:23,971 --> 00:10:25,251 (Laughter) 189 00:10:25,613 --> 00:10:31,763 We should focus on preparing for the upcoming Phase 2 and 3. 190 00:10:31,903 --> 00:10:34,263 This is my proposal. 191 00:10:34,263 --> 00:10:35,433 (Laughter) 192 00:10:36,351 --> 00:10:38,617 We still have potential. 193 00:10:38,617 --> 00:10:41,485 Japan didn't experience Phase 1 in the past, either. 194 00:10:41,485 --> 00:10:43,545 So it's not a problem. 195 00:10:43,545 --> 00:10:44,385 (Laughter) 196 00:10:44,385 --> 00:10:47,301 The other big waves, Phase 2 and 3, are coming! 197 00:10:47,301 --> 00:10:50,921 We should prepare to ride those waves. 198 00:10:52,061 --> 00:10:56,721 We are full of great concepts in Japan. 199 00:10:56,721 --> 00:10:59,772 We have Ghost in the Shell, Doraemon... 200 00:10:59,772 --> 00:11:01,972 there are so many excellent ideas. 201 00:11:01,972 --> 00:11:04,688 Wouldn't these would be perfect for Phase 2 and Phase 3? 202 00:11:04,688 --> 00:11:05,405 (Laughter) 203 00:11:05,405 --> 00:11:06,662 We have material. 204 00:11:06,662 --> 00:11:08,342 We have ideas. 205 00:11:08,342 --> 00:11:09,802 We can win again! 206 00:11:09,802 --> 00:11:11,442 (Laughter) 207 00:11:12,162 --> 00:11:17,122 Here is an emotional line from a recent film. 208 00:11:19,195 --> 00:11:22,685 "Japan rose up through scrap and build, 209 00:11:22,685 --> 00:11:24,927 and we will rise again." 210 00:11:24,927 --> 00:11:27,957 These are lines from "Godzilla Resurgence." 211 00:11:27,957 --> 00:11:30,807 We are faced with extreme circumstances, 212 00:11:30,807 --> 00:11:33,227 and we are almost scrapped. 213 00:11:33,227 --> 00:11:35,977 But let's try again! 214 00:11:35,977 --> 00:11:40,997 Let's start fresh, and enjoy the competition. 215 00:11:40,997 --> 00:11:42,609 That's all I have to say. 216 00:11:42,869 --> 00:11:44,049 Thank you. 217 00:11:44,049 --> 00:11:45,989 (Applause)