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Hi, I'm Ola from Gapminder.
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It's April 2020 and we're in the middle of the global Corona lockdown.
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It's very difficult times and I think many of us
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hope something positive will come out of this.
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I've seen people talk about global
warming and the fact that the airplanes
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across the world, almost all of them, are
canceled.
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They hope this will show up in the
emission statistics as an example of
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how we have to live to stop global warming.
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I'm afraid of jumping to that conclusion.
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I think actually talking about it that
way might backfire
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when people realize that: No. This is way too small to stop global warming.
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To reduce greenhouse gas emissions we need to understand where the gases come from,
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and the most important aspect is how rich people are.
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Here are 8 billion people, sorted so
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the poorest billion is to the left
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and the richest to the right,
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and that's the one I belong to,
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and we are responsible for half of all the greenhouse gas emissions.
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And the remaining emission, half of it comes from the second-riches.
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And the others only emit a quarter of the total.
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So it's really WE who are the problem.
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Now, how much of this comes from airplanes?
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We asked this question to our
followers on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook,
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and also to 117 people in the UK.
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Here are their results. This comes from a small online poll we did in February with Google surveys.
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There are too few people to say anything for sure about the UK public,
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but you can clearly see how very few went for the small number.
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We are careful not to mislead people by how we design our questions.
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So we first ask the question with more answer options,
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like this, to 123 other people.
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You can see how the results are very similar,
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and Gapminder followers answered like this on Instagram, Twitter
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and 80% of our followers on Facebook picked the right answer:
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Less than 6 percent of greenhouse gas emissions comes from airplanes.
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which shows that our followers are way more knowledgeable
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than what I think the UK public is on this matter.
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In the UK instead a majority went for the wrong and the very wrong answer.
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They have probably heard that airplane emission is a huge part of the UK emissions.
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So what's the problem if people exaggerate the emissions from airplanes?
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"That will keep them away from flying " you might think.
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but I already heard people who are
disappointed that,
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even after these sacrifices for Corona this is not enough to stop global warming
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expect that we're still heating our houses the same way
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and produce our food the same way.
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The main difference is a
little bit of traffic and the airplanes. Right?
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They need to realize that's a small fraction. Right now...
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In the future though, airplanes are gonna be a much bigger problem. I'll show you.
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Right before Corona, airplanes emitted roughly 5% of all greenhouse gases,
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that includes the high altitude effect
above 8,000 meters
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if after Corona the trends continue, the future will look something like this
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By 2030 there will be 1 billion more people.
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Everybody struggle to get richer.
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and by 2050 they will have succeeded,
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and there will be two billion people flying airplanes.
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I'm not saying that I think this is a good
thing:
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the kind of overconsumption at the rich end.
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I'm just saying that this is
the most likely thing to happen
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if the trends before corona continue afterwards.
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This much greenhouse gas will heat up the planet very fast.
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We the richest people will have to reduce our emissions
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and replace our energy sources with
green energy
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to generate electricity and heat our homes and drive our cars.
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If we succeed bringing it down to this level,
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in 2050 the total emissions will be the same as they are today.
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But to avoid heating the planet 1.5 degrees,
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we'll have to cut that with 45% as well
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And in the future, if we want to fly
across the Atlantic
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we'll need to have these kind of green airplanes
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which I haven't seen any of yet...
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So let's be careful not to confuse the discomfort from this corona lockdown
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with the kind of lifestyle changes needed to stop global warming.
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Instead we're going to learn other things from Corona,
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such as how vulnerable we are.
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Imagine a pandemic that actually kills children or have a higher fatality rate.
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Now we are at least a little bit prepared.
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And we learn how much we need a global collaboration in such situation.
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Please sign up to be a tester of our new
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ignorance reduction service which were
soon launching.
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We have tested thousands of fact questions where people are systematically wrong.
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Or just stay tuned to Facebook, Twitter or Instagram,
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where are we're gonna keep posting many of these questions
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and we'll tell you when the service is ready.