1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,380 Hi, I'm Ola from Gapminder. 2 00:00:02,380 --> 00:00:06,660 It's April 2020 and we're in the middle of the global Corona lockdown. 3 00:00:06,940 --> 00:00:09,400 It's very difficult times and I think many of us 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,400 hope something positive will come out of this. 5 00:00:12,500 --> 00:00:15,800 I've seen people talk about global warming and the fact that the airplanes 6 00:00:15,809 --> 00:00:18,570 across the world, almost all of them, are canceled. 7 00:00:18,570 --> 00:00:22,980 They hope this will show up in the emission statistics as an example of 8 00:00:22,980 --> 00:00:25,140 how we have to live to stop global warming. 9 00:00:25,140 --> 00:00:27,600 I'm afraid of jumping to that conclusion. 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:30,780 I think actually talking about it that way might backfire 11 00:00:30,780 --> 00:00:37,520 when people realize that: No. This is way too small to stop global warming. 12 00:00:37,980 --> 00:00:42,280 To reduce greenhouse gas emissions we need to understand where the gases come from, 13 00:00:42,480 --> 00:00:45,660 and the most important aspect is how rich people are. 14 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:47,840 Here are 8 billion people, sorted so 15 00:00:48,020 --> 00:00:49,840 the poorest billion is to the left 16 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:51,500 and the richest to the right, 17 00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:53,100 and that's the one I belong to, 18 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:57,740 and we are responsible for half of all the greenhouse gas emissions. 19 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,540 And the remaining emission, half of it comes from the second-riches. 20 00:01:01,700 --> 00:01:05,220 And the others only emit a quarter of the total. 21 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,760 So it's really WE who are the problem. 22 00:01:09,700 --> 00:01:12,620 Now, how much of this comes from airplanes? 23 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,520 We asked this question to our followers on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, 24 00:01:16,660 --> 00:01:20,800 and also to 117 people in the UK. 25 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:27,200 Here are their results. This comes from a small online poll we did in February with Google surveys. 26 00:01:27,340 --> 00:01:31,380 There are too few people to say anything for sure about the UK public, 27 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,540 but you can clearly see how very few went for the small number. 28 00:01:35,900 --> 00:01:40,680 We are careful not to mislead people by how we design our questions. 29 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,300 So we first ask the question with more answer options, 30 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,080 like this, to 123 other people. 31 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,760 You can see how the results are very similar, 32 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:54,200 and Gapminder followers answered like this on Instagram, Twitter 33 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:58,860 and 80% of our followers on Facebook picked the right answer: 34 00:01:58,860 --> 00:02:03,040 Less than 6 percent of greenhouse gas emissions comes from airplanes. 35 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,620 which shows that our followers are way more knowledgeable 36 00:02:06,620 --> 00:02:10,200 than what I think the UK public is on this matter. 37 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:15,000 In the UK instead a majority went for the wrong and the very wrong answer. 38 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:20,680 They have probably heard that airplane emission is a huge part of the UK emissions. 39 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,160 So what's the problem if people exaggerate the emissions from airplanes? 40 00:02:24,300 --> 00:02:27,260 "That will keep them away from flying " you might think. 41 00:02:27,340 --> 00:02:29,540 but I already heard people who are disappointed that, 42 00:02:29,700 --> 00:02:34,020 even after these sacrifices for Corona this is not enough to stop global warming 43 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,700 expect that we're still heating our houses the same way 44 00:02:37,700 --> 00:02:39,580 and produce our food the same way. 45 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,400 The main difference is a little bit of traffic and the airplanes. Right? 46 00:02:43,500 --> 00:02:47,620 They need to realize that's a small fraction. Right now... 47 00:02:47,620 --> 00:02:51,960 In the future though, airplanes are gonna be a much bigger problem. I'll show you. 48 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:58,880 Right before Corona, airplanes emitted roughly 5% of all greenhouse gases, 49 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,320 that includes the high altitude effect above 8,000 meters 50 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:07,780 if after Corona the trends continue, the future will look something like this 51 00:03:07,780 --> 00:03:11,560 By 2030 there will be 1 billion more people. 52 00:03:11,660 --> 00:03:13,760 Everybody struggle to get richer. 53 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,900 and by 2050 they will have succeeded, 54 00:03:16,900 --> 00:03:20,400 and there will be two billion people flying airplanes. 55 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,060 I'm not saying that I think this is a good thing: 56 00:03:23,060 --> 00:03:25,520 the kind of overconsumption at the rich end. 57 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,720 I'm just saying that this is the most likely thing to happen 58 00:03:28,780 --> 00:03:32,680 if the trends before corona continue afterwards. 59 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,920 This much greenhouse gas will heat up the planet very fast. 60 00:03:37,140 --> 00:03:40,980 We the richest people will have to reduce our emissions 61 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,860 and replace our energy sources with green energy 62 00:03:43,860 --> 00:03:48,180 to generate electricity and heat our homes and drive our cars. 63 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,320 If we succeed bringing it down to this level, 64 00:03:51,500 --> 00:03:57,020 in 2050 the total emissions will be the same as they are today. 65 00:03:57,140 --> 00:04:01,080 But to avoid heating the planet 1.5 degrees, 66 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,620 we'll have to cut that with 45% as well 67 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,460 And in the future, if we want to fly across the Atlantic 68 00:04:09,460 --> 00:04:12,160 we'll need to have these kind of green airplanes 69 00:04:12,220 --> 00:04:15,080 which I haven't seen any of yet... 70 00:04:16,540 --> 00:04:20,640 So let's be careful not to confuse the discomfort from this corona lockdown 71 00:04:20,820 --> 00:04:24,220 with the kind of lifestyle changes needed to stop global warming. 72 00:04:24,220 --> 00:04:26,920 Instead we're going to learn other things from Corona, 73 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:28,820 such as how vulnerable we are. 74 00:04:28,820 --> 00:04:32,980 Imagine a pandemic that actually kills children or have a higher fatality rate. 75 00:04:32,980 --> 00:04:35,920 Now we are at least a little bit prepared. 76 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:40,120 And we learn how much we need a global collaboration in such situation. 77 00:04:41,340 --> 00:04:43,820 Please sign up to be a tester of our new 78 00:04:43,820 --> 00:04:46,740 ignorance reduction service which were soon launching. 79 00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:51,820 We have tested thousands of fact questions where people are systematically wrong. 80 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,460 Or just stay tuned to Facebook, Twitter or Instagram, 81 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,900 where are we're gonna keep posting many of these questions 82 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,940 and we'll tell you when the service is ready.