The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons
-
0:01 - 0:03Let me ask you all a question.
-
0:04 - 0:08How much weapons-grade nuclear
material do you think it would take -
0:08 - 0:11to level a city the size of San Francisco?
-
0:12 - 0:14How many of you think
it would be an amount -
0:14 - 0:16about the size of this suitcase?
-
0:18 - 0:21OK. And how about this minibus?
-
0:22 - 0:23All right.
-
0:24 - 0:26Well actually, under
the right circumstances, -
0:26 - 0:32an amount of highly enriched uranium
about the size of your morning latte -
0:32 - 0:35would be enough to kill 100,000 people
-
0:35 - 0:36instantly.
-
0:37 - 0:40Hundreds of thousands of others
would become horribly ill, -
0:41 - 0:44and parts of the city
would be uninhabitable for years, -
0:44 - 0:45if not for decades.
-
0:46 - 0:49But you can forget that nuclear latte,
-
0:49 - 0:55because today's nuclear weapons
are hundreds of times more powerful -
0:55 - 0:58even than those we dropped
on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. -
0:59 - 1:04And even a limited nuclear war
involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons, -
1:04 - 1:08could lead to the end
of all life on the planet. -
1:10 - 1:13So it's really important that you know
-
1:13 - 1:18that right now we have
over 15,000 nuclear weapons -
1:18 - 1:20in the hands of nine nations.
-
1:20 - 1:25And if you live in a city
or near a military facility, -
1:25 - 1:28one is likely pointed right at you.
-
1:29 - 1:31In fact, if you live in any
of the rural areas -
1:31 - 1:34where nuclear weapons are stored globally,
-
1:34 - 1:36one is likely pointed at you.
-
1:36 - 1:41About 1,800 of these weapons
are on high alert, -
1:41 - 1:44which means they can be launched
within 15 minutes -
1:44 - 1:47of a presidential command.
-
1:48 - 1:52So I know this is a bummer of an issue,
-
1:52 - 1:55and maybe you have that --
what was it? -- psychic fatigue -
1:55 - 1:57that we heard about a little bit earlier.
-
1:57 - 1:59So I'm going to switch gears
for just a second, -
1:59 - 2:01and I'm going to talk
about my imaginary friend, -
2:01 - 2:04who I like to think of as Jasmine,
-
2:04 - 2:06just for a moment.
-
2:06 - 2:08Jasmine, at the age of 25,
-
2:08 - 2:13is part of a generation that is more
politically and socially engaged -
2:13 - 2:15than anything we've seen in 50 years.
-
2:15 - 2:17She and her friends think of themselves
-
2:17 - 2:20as change agents
and leaders and activists. -
2:20 - 2:23I think of them as Generation Possible.
-
2:24 - 2:27They regularly protest
about the issues they care about, -
2:27 - 2:31but nuclear weapons are not one of them,
which makes sense, -
2:31 - 2:35because Jasmine was born in 1991,
at the end of the Cold War. -
2:35 - 2:38So she didn't grow up hearing a lot
about nuclear weapons. -
2:38 - 2:42She never had to duck and cover
under her desk at school. -
2:42 - 2:46For Jasmine, a fallout shelter
is an app in the Android store. -
2:46 - 2:49Nuclear weapons help win games.
-
2:49 - 2:51And that is really a shame,
-
2:51 - 2:55because right now, we need
Generation Possible -
2:55 - 2:59to help us make some really important
decisions about nuclear weapons. -
3:00 - 3:06For instance, will we further reduce
our nuclear arsenals globally, -
3:06 - 3:09or will we spend billions,
-
3:09 - 3:11maybe a trillion dollars,
-
3:11 - 3:15to modernize them so they last
throughout the 21st century, -
3:15 - 3:18so that by the time Jasmine is my age,
she's talking to her children -
3:18 - 3:20and maybe even her grandchildren
-
3:20 - 3:22about the threat of nuclear holocaust?
-
3:23 - 3:26And if you're paying any attention
at all to cyberthreats, -
3:26 - 3:30or, for instance, if you've read
about the Stuxnet virus -
3:30 - 3:34or, for God's sake, if you've ever
had an email account or a Yahoo account -
3:34 - 3:36or a phone hacked,
-
3:36 - 3:40you can imagine the whole new world
of hurt that could be triggered -
3:40 - 3:43by modernization in a period
of cyberwarfare. -
3:44 - 3:46Now, if you're paying
attention to the money, -
3:46 - 3:49a trillion dollars could go a long way
-
3:49 - 3:52to feeding and educating
and employing people, -
3:52 - 3:56all of which could reduce the threat
of nuclear war to begin with. -
3:57 - 3:58So --
-
3:58 - 4:01(Applause)
-
4:01 - 4:03This is really crucial right now,
-
4:03 - 4:06because nuclear weapons --
they're vulnerable. -
4:07 - 4:09We have solid evidence
-
4:09 - 4:12that terrorists are trying
to get ahold of them. -
4:13 - 4:14Just this last spring,
-
4:14 - 4:19when four retirees
and two taxi drivers were arrested -
4:19 - 4:20in the Republic of Georgia
-
4:20 - 4:24for trying to sell nuclear materials
for 200 million dollars, -
4:24 - 4:28they demonstrated that the black market
for this stuff is alive and well. -
4:28 - 4:29And it's really important,
-
4:29 - 4:33because there have been
dozens of accidents -
4:33 - 4:34involving nuclear weapons,
-
4:35 - 4:38and I bet most of us have never heard
anything about them. -
4:38 - 4:39Just here in the United States,
-
4:39 - 4:43we've dropped nuclear weapons
on the Carolinas twice. -
4:43 - 4:46In one case, one of the bombs,
-
4:46 - 4:48which fell out of an Air Force plane,
-
4:48 - 4:49didn't detonate
-
4:49 - 4:52because the nuclear core
was stored somewhere else on the plane. -
4:52 - 4:56In another case, the weapon
did arm when it hit the ground, -
4:56 - 5:00and five of the switches designed
to keep it from detonating failed. -
5:01 - 5:03Luckily, the sixth one didn't.
-
5:04 - 5:06But if that's not enough
to get your attention, -
5:07 - 5:10there was the 1995 Black Brant incident.
-
5:11 - 5:13That's when Russian radar technicians saw
-
5:13 - 5:15what they thought was a US nuclear missile
-
5:16 - 5:18streaking towards Russian airspace.
-
5:18 - 5:21It later turned out to be
a Norwegian rocket -
5:21 - 5:23collecting data about the northern lights.
-
5:24 - 5:25But at that time,
-
5:25 - 5:28Russian President Boris Yeltsin
came within five minutes -
5:28 - 5:33of launching a full-scale
retaliatory nuclear attack -
5:33 - 5:35against the United States.
-
5:37 - 5:41So, most of the world's nuclear nations
-
5:41 - 5:44have committed to getting rid
of these weapons of mass destruction. -
5:45 - 5:47But consider this:
-
5:48 - 5:51the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons, -
5:51 - 5:55which is the most widely adopted
arms control treaty in history -
5:55 - 5:57with 190 signatories,
-
5:57 - 6:03sets no specific date by which
the world's nuclear-armed nations -
6:03 - 6:05will get rid of their nuclear weapons.
-
6:06 - 6:08Now, when John F. Kennedy
sent a man to the moon -
6:08 - 6:12and decided to bring him back,
or decided to do both those things, -
6:12 - 6:15he didn't say, "Hey, whenever
you guys get to it." -
6:15 - 6:17He gave us a deadline.
-
6:17 - 6:18He gave us a challenge
-
6:19 - 6:22that would have been incredible
just a few years earlier. -
6:22 - 6:24And with that challenge,
-
6:24 - 6:26he inspired scientists and marketers,
-
6:26 - 6:29astronauts and schoolteachers.
-
6:29 - 6:31He gave us a vision.
-
6:32 - 6:34But along with that vision,
-
6:34 - 6:37he also tried to give us -- and most
people don't know this, either -- -
6:37 - 6:39he tried to give us a partner
-
6:40 - 6:45in the form of our fiercest
Cold War rival, the Soviet Union. -
6:45 - 6:48Because part of Kennedy's vision
for the Apollo program -
6:48 - 6:52was that it be a cooperation,
not a competition, with the Soviets. -
6:52 - 6:55And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev,
the Soviet Premier, agreed. -
6:56 - 6:59But before that cooperation
could be realized, -
6:59 - 7:01Kennedy was assassinated,
-
7:01 - 7:03and that part of the vision was deferred.
-
7:05 - 7:10But the promise of joint innovation
between these two nuclear superpowers -
7:10 - 7:12wasn't totally extinguished.
-
7:12 - 7:16Because in 1991, which is the year
that Jasmine was born -
7:16 - 7:19and the Soviet Union fell,
-
7:19 - 7:22these two nations engaged in a project
-
7:22 - 7:24that genuinely does seem incredible today
-
7:24 - 7:26in the truest sense of that word,
-
7:27 - 7:31which is that the US sent cash
to the Russians when they needed it most, -
7:31 - 7:34to secure loose nuclear materials
-
7:34 - 7:37and to employ out-of-work
nuclear scientists. -
7:37 - 7:44They worked alongside American scientists
to convert weapons-grade uranium -
7:44 - 7:48into the type of fuel that can be used
for nuclear power instead. -
7:48 - 7:51They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts."
-
7:52 - 7:55So the result is that for over 20 years,
-
7:55 - 7:58our two nations had a program
-
7:58 - 8:02that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs
in the United States -
8:02 - 8:06was essentially fueled
by former Russian warheads. -
8:08 - 8:11So, together these two nations
did something truly audacious. -
8:12 - 8:16But the good news is,
the global community has the chance -
8:16 - 8:19to do something just as audacious today.
-
8:21 - 8:23To get rid of nuclear weapons
-
8:23 - 8:28and to end the supply of the materials
required to produce them, -
8:28 - 8:31some experts tell me would take 30 years.
-
8:31 - 8:34It would take a renaissance of sorts,
-
8:34 - 8:36the kinds of innovation that,
for better or worse, -
8:36 - 8:40underpinned both the Manhattan Project,
which gave rise to nuclear weapons, -
8:40 - 8:43and the Megatons to Megawatts program.
-
8:43 - 8:46It would take design constraints.
-
8:46 - 8:48These are fundamental to creativity,
-
8:48 - 8:52things like a platform
for international collaboration; -
8:52 - 8:56a date certain, which is
a forcing mechanism; -
8:57 - 9:00and a positive vision
that inspires action. -
9:01 - 9:03It would take us to 2045.
-
9:04 - 9:09Now, 2045 happens to be
the 100th anniversary -
9:09 - 9:12of the birth of nuclear weapons
in the New Mexico desert. -
9:13 - 9:16But it's also an important date
for another reason. -
9:16 - 9:20It's predicted to be the advent
of the singularity, -
9:21 - 9:23a new moment in human development,
-
9:23 - 9:29where the lines between artificial
intelligence and human intelligence blur, -
9:29 - 9:34where computing and consciousness
become almost indistinguishable -
9:34 - 9:39and advanced technologies help us solve
the 21st century's greatest problems: -
9:39 - 9:42hunger, energy, poverty,
-
9:42 - 9:45ushering in an era of abundance.
-
9:46 - 9:48And we all get to go to space
-
9:48 - 9:51on our way to becoming
a multi-planetary species. -
9:52 - 9:56Now, the people who really believe
this vision are the first to say -
9:56 - 9:59they don't yet know precisely
how we're going to get there. -
10:00 - 10:02But the values behind their vision
-
10:02 - 10:06and the willingness to ask "How might we?"
-
10:06 - 10:08have inspired a generation of innovators.
-
10:09 - 10:12They're working backward
from the outcomes they want, -
10:12 - 10:17using the creative problem-solving methods
of collaborative design. -
10:17 - 10:19They're busting through obstacles.
-
10:19 - 10:23They're redefining
what we all consider possible. -
10:24 - 10:25But here's the thing:
-
10:26 - 10:30that vision of abundance isn't compatible
-
10:30 - 10:36with a world that still relies
on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine -
10:36 - 10:40called "mutually assured destruction."
-
10:41 - 10:46It has to be about building
the foundations for the 22nd century. -
10:46 - 10:52It has to be about strategies
for mutually assured prosperity -
10:52 - 10:56or, at the very least,
mutually assured survival. -
10:57 - 11:02Now, every day, I get to meet
people who are real pioneers -
11:02 - 11:04in the field of nuclear threats.
-
11:04 - 11:08As you can see, many of them
are young women, -
11:08 - 11:10and they're doing fiercely
interesting stuff, -
11:10 - 11:15like Mareena Robinson Snowden here,
who is developing new ways, -
11:15 - 11:18better ways, to detect nuclear warheads,
-
11:18 - 11:20which will help us
overcome a critical hurdle -
11:20 - 11:22to international disarmament.
-
11:22 - 11:25Or Melissa Hanham, who is using
satellite imaging -
11:25 - 11:29to make sense of what's going on
around far-flung nuclear sites. -
11:29 - 11:32Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,
-
11:32 - 11:36who has been campaigning
to make nuclear weapons illegal -
11:36 - 11:38in international courts of law,
-
11:38 - 11:41and just won a big victory
at the UN last week. -
11:41 - 11:44(Applause)
-
11:44 - 11:45And yet,
-
11:46 - 11:47and yet,
-
11:48 - 11:51with all of our talk in this culture
about moon shots, -
11:51 - 11:56too few members of Generation Possible
and those of us who mentor them -
11:56 - 11:58are taking on nuclear weapons.
-
11:59 - 12:00It's as if there's a taboo.
-
12:02 - 12:07But I remember something Kennedy said
that has really stuck with me, -
12:07 - 12:08and that is something to the effect
-
12:08 - 12:11that humans can be as big as the solutions
-
12:11 - 12:12to all the problems we've created.
-
12:12 - 12:16No problem of human destiny, he said,
-
12:16 - 12:18is beyond human beings.
-
12:19 - 12:21I believe that.
-
12:21 - 12:24And I bet a lot of you here
believe that, too. -
12:25 - 12:27And I know Generation
Possible believes it. -
12:29 - 12:32So it's time to commit to a date.
-
12:33 - 12:37Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter
-
12:37 - 12:40on the 100th anniversary of its inception.
-
12:41 - 12:46After all, by 2045, we will have held
billions of people hostage -
12:46 - 12:48to the threat of nuclear annihilation.
-
12:48 - 12:50Surely, 100 years will have been enough.
-
12:52 - 12:55Surely, a century of economic development
-
12:55 - 12:59and the development of military strategy
-
12:59 - 13:02will have given us better ways
to manage global conflict. -
13:03 - 13:07Surely, if ever there was a global
moon shot worth supporting, -
13:08 - 13:09this is it.
-
13:10 - 13:12Now, in the face of real threats --
-
13:12 - 13:15for instance, North Korea's recent
nuclear weapons tests, -
13:16 - 13:18which fly in the face of sanctions --
-
13:18 - 13:20reasonable people disagree
-
13:20 - 13:24about whether we should maintain
some number of nuclear weapons -
13:24 - 13:26to deter aggression.
-
13:27 - 13:29But the question is:
What's the magic number? -
13:30 - 13:32Is it a thousand?
-
13:32 - 13:35Is it a hundred? Ten?
-
13:35 - 13:37And then we have to ask:
-
13:37 - 13:39Who should be responsible for them?
-
13:40 - 13:42I think we can agree, however,
-
13:42 - 13:46that having 15,000 of them
represents a greater global threat -
13:46 - 13:48to Jasmine's generation than a promise.
-
13:49 - 13:52So it's time we make a promise
-
13:52 - 13:55of a world in which we've broken
the stranglehold -
13:55 - 13:59that nuclear weapons have
on our imaginations; -
13:59 - 14:01in which we invest
in the creative solutions -
14:01 - 14:05that come from working backward
from the future we desperately want, -
14:05 - 14:08rather than plodding forward
from a present -
14:08 - 14:12that brings all of the mental models
and biases of the past with it. -
14:12 - 14:18It's time we pledge our resources
as leaders across the spectrum -
14:18 - 14:21to work on this old problem in new ways,
-
14:21 - 14:23to ask, "How might we?"
-
14:24 - 14:26How might we make good on a promise
-
14:26 - 14:30of greater security
for Jasmine's generation -
14:30 - 14:33in a world beyond nuclear weapons?
-
14:34 - 14:37I truly hope you will join us.
-
14:38 - 14:39Thank you.
-
14:39 - 14:42(Applause)
-
14:42 - 14:44Thank you.
-
14:44 - 14:46(Applause)
- Title:
- The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons
- Speaker:
- Erika Gregory
- Description:
-
Today nine nations collectively control more than 15,000 nuclear weapons, each hundreds of times more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We don't need more nuclear weapons; we need a new generation to face the unfinished challenge of disarmament started decades ago. Nuclear reformer Erika Gregory calls on today's rising leaders -- those born in a time without Cold War fears and duck and cover training -- to pursue an ambitious goal: ridding the world of nuclear weapons by 2045.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 14:59
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons |