A global food crisis may be only a decade away
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0:01 - 0:05Since 2009, the world has been stuck
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0:05 - 0:10on a single narrative
around a coming global food crisis -
0:10 - 0:12and what we need to do to avoid it.
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0:13 - 0:17How do we feed
nine billion people by 2050? -
0:18 - 0:23Every conference, podcast
and dialogue around global food security -
0:23 - 0:25starts with this question
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0:25 - 0:27and goes on to answer it
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0:27 - 0:31by saying we need to produce
70 percent more food. -
0:33 - 0:36The 2050 narrative started to evolve
-
0:36 - 0:41shortly after global food prices
hit all-time highs in 2008. -
0:41 - 0:44People were suffering and struggling,
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0:44 - 0:46governments and world leaders
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0:46 - 0:48needed to show us
that they were paying attention -
0:48 - 0:50and were working to solve it.
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0:52 - 0:56The thing is, 2050
is so far into the future -
0:56 - 0:58that we can't even relate to it,
-
0:58 - 1:00and more importantly,
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1:00 - 1:02if we keep doing what we're doing,
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1:02 - 1:05it's going to hit us
a lot sooner than that. -
1:06 - 1:09I believe we need to ask
a different question. -
1:10 - 1:13The answer to that question
-
1:13 - 1:15needs to be framed differently.
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1:17 - 1:20If we can reframe the old narrative
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1:20 - 1:22and replace it with new numbers
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1:22 - 1:24that tell us a more complete pictures,
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1:26 - 1:29numbers that everyone can understand
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1:29 - 1:30and relate to,
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1:31 - 1:34we can avoid the crisis altogether.
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1:37 - 1:39I was a commodities trader in my past life
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1:39 - 1:42and one of the things
that I learned trading -
1:42 - 1:45is that every market has a tipping point,
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1:45 - 1:49the point at which
change occurs so rapidly -
1:49 - 1:51that it impacts the world
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1:51 - 1:53and things change forever.
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1:54 - 1:57Think of the last financial crisis,
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1:58 - 1:59or the dot-com crash.
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2:01 - 2:03So here's my concern.
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2:05 - 2:07We could have a tipping point
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2:07 - 2:09in global food and agriculture
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2:09 - 2:11if surging demand
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2:11 - 2:17surpasses the agricultural system's
structural capacity to produce food. -
2:18 - 2:23This means at this point supply
can no longer keep up with demand -
2:23 - 2:25despite exploding prices,
-
2:25 - 2:29unless we can commit
to some type of structural change. -
2:31 - 2:32This time around,
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2:32 - 2:35it won't be about stock markets and money.
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2:35 - 2:36It's about people.
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2:36 - 2:40People could starve
and governments may fall. -
2:41 - 2:46This question of at what point
does supply struggle -
2:46 - 2:47to keep up with surging demand
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2:47 - 2:51is one that started off as an interest
for me while I was trading -
2:51 - 2:54and became an absolute obsession.
-
2:54 - 2:57It went from interest to obsession
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2:57 - 3:01when I realized through my research
how broken the system was -
3:01 - 3:05and how very little data was being used
to make such critical decisions. -
3:06 - 3:10That's the point I decided to walk away
from a career on Wall Street -
3:10 - 3:12and start an entrepreneurial journey
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3:12 - 3:14to start Gro Intelligence.
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3:15 - 3:18At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
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3:18 - 3:21and doing the work to make it actionable,
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3:21 - 3:24to empower decision-makers at every level.
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3:25 - 3:26But doing this work,
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3:27 - 3:29we also realized that the world,
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3:29 - 3:30not just world leaders,
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3:30 - 3:35but businesses and citizens
like every single person in this room, -
3:35 - 3:37lacked an actionable guide
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3:38 - 3:42on how we can avoid
a coming global food security crisis. -
3:42 - 3:44And so we built a model,
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3:44 - 3:47leveraging the petabytes
of data we sit on, -
3:47 - 3:50and we solved for the tipping point.
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3:51 - 3:54Now, no one knows
we've been working on this problem -
3:54 - 3:58and this is the first time
that I'm sharing what we discovered. -
4:00 - 4:05We discovered that the tipping point
is actually a decade from now. -
4:06 - 4:09We discovered that the world
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4:09 - 4:13will be short 214 trillion calories
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4:15 - 4:16by 2027.
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4:17 - 4:21The world is not in a position
to fill this gap. -
4:22 - 4:24Now, you'll notice
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4:25 - 4:29that the way I'm framing this
is different from how I started, -
4:29 - 4:31and that's intentional, because until now
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4:31 - 4:35this problem has been
quantified using mass: -
4:35 - 4:37think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
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4:38 - 4:40whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
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4:40 - 4:43Why do we talk about food
in terms of weight? -
4:43 - 4:45Because it's easy.
-
4:45 - 4:48We can look at a photograph
and determine tonnage on a ship -
4:48 - 4:51by using a simple pocket calculator.
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4:51 - 4:53We can weigh trucks,
airplanes and oxcarts. -
4:54 - 4:58But what we care about
in food is nutritional value. -
4:59 - 5:02Not all foods are created equal,
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5:02 - 5:04even if they weigh the same.
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5:05 - 5:07This I learned firsthand
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5:07 - 5:10when I moved from Ethiopia
to the US for university. -
5:11 - 5:13Upon my return back home,
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5:13 - 5:17my father, who was so excited to see me,
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5:17 - 5:20greeted me by asking why I was fat.
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5:21 - 5:27Now, turns out that eating
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5:27 - 5:32approximately the same amount of food
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America, -
5:32 - 5:35had actually lent
a certain fullness to my figure. -
5:37 - 5:41This is why we should care about calories,
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5:41 - 5:43not about mass.
-
5:43 - 5:45It is calories which sustain us.
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5:47 - 5:53So 214 trillion calories
is a very large number, -
5:53 - 5:56and not even the most dedicated of us
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5:56 - 5:59think in the hundreds
of trillions of calories. -
5:59 - 6:01So let me break this down differently.
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6:02 - 6:05An alternative way to think about this
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6:05 - 6:08is to think about it in Big Macs.
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6:08 - 6:11214 trillion calories.
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6:11 - 6:14A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
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6:14 - 6:20That means the world will be short
379 billion Big Macs in 2027. -
6:20 - 6:24That is more Big Macs
than McDonald's has ever produced. -
6:26 - 6:30So how did we get
to these numbers in the first place? -
6:30 - 6:31They're not made up.
-
6:32 - 6:37This map shows you
where the world was 40 years ago. -
6:37 - 6:41It shows you net calorie gaps
in every country in the world. -
6:41 - 6:43Now, simply put,
-
6:43 - 6:46this is just calories
consumed in that country -
6:46 - 6:49minus calories produced
in that same country. -
6:49 - 6:52This is not a statement
on malnutrition or anything else. -
6:52 - 6:56It's simply saying how many calories
are consumed in a single year -
6:56 - 6:58minus how many are produced.
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6:58 - 7:01Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
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7:01 - 7:02or self-sufficient.
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7:02 - 7:04They have some in storage for a rainy day.
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7:05 - 7:08Red countries are net calorie importers.
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7:08 - 7:10The deeper, the brighter the red,
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7:10 - 7:11the more you're importing.
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7:12 - 7:1740 years ago, such few countries
were net exporters of calories, -
7:17 - 7:18I could count them with one hand.
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7:19 - 7:21Most of the African continent,
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7:21 - 7:24Europe, most of Asia,
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7:24 - 7:26South America excluding Argentina,
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7:26 - 7:28were all net importers of calories.
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7:29 - 7:32And what's surprising is that China
used to actually be food self-sufficient. -
7:33 - 7:36India was a big net importer of calories.
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7:37 - 7:3940 years later, this is today.
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7:40 - 7:43You can see the drastic transformation
that's occurred in the world. -
7:44 - 7:48Brazil has emerged
as an agricultural powerhouse. -
7:48 - 7:51Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
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7:51 - 7:54India has actually flipped
from red to blue. -
7:54 - 7:56It's become food self-sufficient.
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7:56 - 7:59And China went from that light blue
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7:59 - 8:01to the brightest red
that you see on this map. -
8:02 - 8:05How did we get here? What happened?
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8:06 - 8:09So this chart shows you India and Africa.
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8:09 - 8:12Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
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8:12 - 8:17How is it that two regions
that started off so similarly -
8:17 - 8:19in such similar trajectories
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8:19 - 8:21take such different paths?
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8:21 - 8:23India had a green revolution.
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8:24 - 8:28Not a single African country
had a green revolution. -
8:28 - 8:29The net outcome?
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8:29 - 8:31India is food self-sufficient
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8:31 - 8:34and in the past decade
has actually been exporting calories. -
8:34 - 8:38The African continent now imports
over 300 trillion calories a year. -
8:39 - 8:44Then we add China, the green line.
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8:44 - 8:46Remember the switch
from the blue to the bright red? -
8:47 - 8:50What happened and when did it happen?
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8:50 - 8:53China seemed to be
on a very similar path to India -
8:53 - 8:56until the start of the 21st century,
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8:56 - 8:58where it suddenly flipped.
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8:58 - 9:00A young and growing population
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9:00 - 9:04combined with significant economic growth
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9:04 - 9:06made its mark with a big bang
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9:06 - 9:08and no one in the markets saw it coming.
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9:10 - 9:13This flip was everything
to global agricultural markets. -
9:13 - 9:16Luckily now, South America
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9:16 - 9:21was starting to boom
at the same time as China's rise, -
9:21 - 9:25and so therefore, supply and demand
were still somewhat balanced. -
9:26 - 9:28So the question becomes,
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9:29 - 9:30where do we go from here?
-
9:32 - 9:33Oddly enough,
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9:33 - 9:35it's not a new story,
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9:36 - 9:39except this time
it's not just a story of China. -
9:39 - 9:42It's a continuation of China,
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9:42 - 9:44an amplification of Africa
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9:44 - 9:46and a paradigm shift in India.
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9:47 - 9:48By 2023,
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9:49 - 9:54Africa's population is forecasted
to overtake that of India's and China's. -
9:54 - 9:57By 2023, these three regions combined
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9:57 - 10:00will make up over half
the world's population. -
10:01 - 10:05This crossover point starts to present
really interesting challenges -
10:05 - 10:07for global food security.
-
10:07 - 10:11And a few years later,
we're hit hard with that reality. -
10:12 - 10:15What does the world look like in 10 years?
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10:17 - 10:21So far, as I mentioned,
India has been food self-sufficient. -
10:21 - 10:24Most forecasters predict
that this will continue. -
10:25 - 10:26We disagree.
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10:27 - 10:31India will soon become
a net importer of calories. -
10:31 - 10:34This will be driven both by the fact
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10:34 - 10:37that demand is growing
from a population growth standpoint -
10:37 - 10:38plus economic growth.
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10:38 - 10:40It will be driven by both.
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10:40 - 10:42And even if you have
optimistic assumptions -
10:42 - 10:44around production growth,
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10:44 - 10:46it will make that slight flip.
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10:47 - 10:51That slight flip
can have huge implications. -
10:52 - 10:56Next, Africa will continue
to be a net importer of calories, -
10:56 - 10:59again driven by population growth
and economic growth. -
11:00 - 11:04This is again assuming optimistic
production growth assumptions. -
11:04 - 11:05Then China,
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11:05 - 11:08where population is flattening out,
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11:08 - 11:10calorie consumption will explode
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11:10 - 11:13because the types of calories consumed
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11:13 - 11:17are also starting to be
higher-calorie-content foods. -
11:18 - 11:19And so therefore,
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11:19 - 11:21these three regions combined
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11:21 - 11:25start to present a really interesting
challenge for the world. -
11:25 - 11:29Until now, countries with calorie deficits
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11:29 - 11:31have been able to meet these deficits
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11:31 - 11:33by importing from surplus regions.
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11:34 - 11:37By surplus regions, I'm talking about
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11:37 - 11:40North America, South America and Europe.
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11:40 - 11:42This line chart over here shows you
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11:42 - 11:46the growth and the projected growth
over the next decade of production -
11:46 - 11:49from North America,
South America and Europe. -
11:49 - 11:50What it doesn't show you
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11:50 - 11:54is that most of this growth is actually
going to come from South America. -
11:55 - 11:56And most of this growth
-
11:56 - 12:00is going to come
at the huge cost of deforestation. -
12:02 - 12:06And so when you look
at the combined demand increase -
12:06 - 12:09coming from India, China
and the African continent, -
12:10 - 12:13and look at it versus
the combined increase in production -
12:13 - 12:16coming from India,
China, the African continent, -
12:16 - 12:18North America, South America and Europe,
-
12:19 - 12:25you are left with
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit, -
12:25 - 12:26one we can't produce.
-
12:26 - 12:30And this, by the way, is actually assuming
we take all the extra calories -
12:30 - 12:33produced in North America,
South America and Europe -
12:34 - 12:38and export them solely
to India, China and Africa. -
12:39 - 12:43What I just presented to you
is a vision of an impossible world. -
12:44 - 12:45We can do something to change that.
-
12:46 - 12:49We can change consumption patterns,
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12:49 - 12:51we can reduce food waste,
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12:51 - 12:54or we can make a bold commitment
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12:54 - 12:57to increasing yields exponentially.
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12:58 - 13:00Now, I'm not going to go into discussing
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13:00 - 13:02changing consumption patterns
or reducing food waste, -
13:02 - 13:05because those conversations
have been going on for some time now. -
13:05 - 13:07Nothing has happened.
-
13:07 - 13:10Nothing has happened
because those arguments -
13:10 - 13:13ask the surplus regions
to change their behavior -
13:13 - 13:16on behalf of deficit regions.
-
13:17 - 13:19Waiting for others
to change their behavior -
13:19 - 13:22on your behalf, for your survival,
-
13:22 - 13:23is a terrible idea.
-
13:24 - 13:25It's unproductive.
-
13:26 - 13:30So I'd like to suggest an alternative
that comes from the red regions. -
13:32 - 13:34China, India, Africa.
-
13:34 - 13:38China is constrained in terms
of how much more land it actually has -
13:38 - 13:39available for agriculture,
-
13:39 - 13:43and it has massive
water resource availability issues. -
13:43 - 13:47So the answer really lies
in India and in Africa. -
13:48 - 13:53India has some upside
in terms of potential yield increases. -
13:53 - 13:55Now this is the gap
between its current yield -
13:55 - 13:59and the theoretical
maximum yield it can achieve. -
14:00 - 14:03It has some unfarmed
arable land remaining, but not much, -
14:03 - 14:05India is quite land-constrained.
-
14:06 - 14:09Now, the African continent,
on the other hand, -
14:09 - 14:12has vast amounts of arable land remaining
-
14:12 - 14:15and significant
upside potential in yields. -
14:16 - 14:18Somewhat simplified picture here,
-
14:18 - 14:23but if you look at sub-Saharan
African yields in corn today, -
14:23 - 14:27they are where North American
yields were in 1940. -
14:29 - 14:32We don't have 70-plus years
to figure this out, -
14:32 - 14:35so it means we need to try something new
-
14:35 - 14:37and we need to try something different.
-
14:38 - 14:41The solution starts with reforms.
-
14:42 - 14:46We need to reform and commercialize
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14:46 - 14:48the agricultural industries in Africa
-
14:48 - 14:50and in India.
-
14:50 - 14:52Now, by commercialization --
-
14:52 - 14:56commercialization is not
about commercial farming alone. -
14:56 - 14:58Commercialization is about leveraging data
-
14:58 - 15:01to craft better policies,
-
15:01 - 15:02to improve infrastructure,
-
15:02 - 15:04to lower the transportation costs
-
15:04 - 15:08and to completely reform
banking and insurance industries. -
15:08 - 15:11Commercialization
is about taking agriculture -
15:11 - 15:16from too risky an endeavor
to one where fortunes can be made. -
15:16 - 15:19Commercialization
is not about just farmers. -
15:19 - 15:23Commercialization is about
the entire agricultural system. -
15:25 - 15:29But commercialization
also means confronting the fact -
15:29 - 15:32that we can no longer place
the burden of growth -
15:32 - 15:34on small-scale farmers alone,
-
15:37 - 15:42and accepting that commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms -
15:42 - 15:45could provide certain economies of scale
-
15:45 - 15:47that even small-scale
farmers can leverage. -
15:48 - 15:52It is not about small-scale farming
or commercial agriculture, -
15:52 - 15:54or big agriculture.
-
15:54 - 15:59We can create the first successful models
of the coexistence and success -
15:59 - 16:03of small-scale farming
alongside commercial agriculture. -
16:03 - 16:06This is because, for the first time ever,
-
16:06 - 16:10the most critical tool
for success in the industry -- -
16:10 - 16:11data and knowledge --
-
16:11 - 16:14is becoming cheaper by the day.
-
16:15 - 16:18And very soon, it won't matter
how much money you have -
16:18 - 16:20or how big you are
-
16:20 - 16:24to make optimal decisions
and maximize probability of success -
16:24 - 16:26in reaching your intended goal.
-
16:27 - 16:31Companies like Gro are working
really hard to make this a reality. -
16:32 - 16:36So if we can commit
to this new, bold initiative, -
16:36 - 16:38to this new, bold change,
-
16:38 - 16:44not only can we solve
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about, -
16:44 - 16:46but we can actually set the world
on a whole new path. -
16:47 - 16:51India can remain food self-sufficient
-
16:51 - 16:56and Africa can emerge
as the world's next dark blue region. -
16:57 - 16:59The new question is,
-
16:59 - 17:04how do we produce 214 trillion calories
-
17:04 - 17:08to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
-
17:09 - 17:10We have the solution.
-
17:11 - 17:13We just need to act on it.
-
17:14 - 17:15Thank you.
-
17:15 - 17:18(Applause)
- Title:
- A global food crisis may be only a decade away
- Speaker:
- Sara Menker
- Description:
-
Sara Menker quit a career in commodities trading to figure out how the global value chain of agriculture works. Her discoveries have led to some startling predictions: "We could have a tipping point in global food and agriculture if surging demand surpasses the agricultural system's structural capacity to produce food," she says. "People could starve and governments may fall." Menker's models predict that this scenario could happen in a decade -- that the world could be short 214 trillion calories per year by 2027. She offers a vision of this impossible world as well as some steps we can take today to avoid it.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 17:53
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz accepted English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for A global food crisis may be less than a decade away |