[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.76,0:00:04.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since 2009, the world has been stuck
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.68,0:00:09.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a single narrative\Naround a coming global food crisis
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.84,0:00:12.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what we need to do to avoid it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.04,0:00:17.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do we feed\Nnine billion people by 2050?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.44,0:00:23.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every conference, podcast\Nand dialogue around global food security
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.08,0:00:24.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,starts with this question
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.80,0:00:26.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and goes on to answer it
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.56,0:00:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by saying we need to produce\N70 percent more food.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.16,0:00:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The 2050 narrative started to evolve
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.00,0:00:40.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shortly after global food prices\Nhit all-time highs in 2008.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.44,0:00:44.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People were suffering and struggling,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.24,0:00:45.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,governments and world leaders
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.80,0:00:48.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,needed to show us\Nthat they were paying attention
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.44,0:00:50.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and were working to solve it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.76,0:00:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing is, 2050\Nis so far into the future
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.56,0:00:57.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can't even relate to it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.28,0:01:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more importantly,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.04,0:01:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we keep doing what we're doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.32,0:01:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's going to hit us\Na lot sooner than that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.08,0:01:09.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I believe we need to ask\Na different question.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.28,0:01:12.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The answer to that question
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.64,0:01:15.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,needs to be framed differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.12,0:01:19.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we can reframe the old narrative
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.88,0:01:22.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and replace it with new numbers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.36,0:01:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that tell us a more complete pictures,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.72,0:01:28.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,numbers that everyone can understand
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.92,0:01:30.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and relate to,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.32,0:01:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can avoid the crisis altogether.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.56,0:01:39.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was a commodities trader in my past life
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.44,0:01:41.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and one of the things\Nthat I learned trading
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.64,0:01:44.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that every market has a tipping point,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.36,0:01:48.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the point at which\Nchange occurs so rapidly
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.96,0:01:50.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it impacts the world
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.84,0:01:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and things change forever.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.08,0:01:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think of the last financial crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.80,0:01:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the dot-com crash.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.92,0:02:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's my concern.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.76,0:02:06.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We could have a tipping point
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.84,0:02:08.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in global food and agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.00,0:02:10.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if surging demand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.92,0:02:17.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,surpasses the agricultural system's\Nstructural capacity to produce food.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.24,0:02:22.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This means at this point supply\Ncan no longer keep up with demand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.00,0:02:25.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,despite exploding prices,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.28,0:02:29.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless we can commit\Nto some type of structural change.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.56,0:02:32.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This time around,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.36,0:02:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it won't be about stock markets and money.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.96,0:02:36.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's about people.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.36,0:02:39.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People could starve\Nand governments may fall.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.20,0:02:45.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This question of at what point\Ndoes supply struggle
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.76,0:02:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to keep up with surging demand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.44,0:02:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is one that started off as an interest\Nfor me while I was trading
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.12,0:02:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and became an absolute obsession.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.92,0:02:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It went from interest to obsession
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.88,0:03:00.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I realized through my research\Nhow broken the system was
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.56,0:03:04.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how very little data was being used\Nto make such critical decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.64,0:03:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the point I decided to walk away\Nfrom a career on Wall Street
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.92,0:03:12.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and start an entrepreneurial journey
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.44,0:03:14.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to start Gro Intelligence.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.88,0:03:18.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.40,0:03:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and doing the work to make it actionable,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.68,0:03:23.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to empower decision-makers at every level.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.88,0:03:26.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But doing this work,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.52,0:03:28.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we also realized that the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.80,0:03:30.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just world leaders,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.48,0:03:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but businesses and citizens\Nlike every single person in this room,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.76,0:03:36.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lacked an actionable guide
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.76,0:03:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on how we can avoid\Na coming global food security crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.40,0:03:44.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we built a model,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.44,0:03:47.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leveraging the petabytes\Nof data we sit on,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.36,0:03:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we solved for the tipping point.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.56,0:03:54.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, no one knows\Nwe've been working on this problem
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.20,0:03:57.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the first time\Nthat I'm sharing what we discovered.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.20,0:04:04.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We discovered that the tipping point\Nis actually a decade from now.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.28,0:04:08.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We discovered that the world
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.64,0:04:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be short 214 trillion calories
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.96,0:04:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by 2027.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.44,0:04:21.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world is not in a position\Nto fill this gap.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.40,0:04:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you'll notice
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.96,0:04:29.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the way I'm framing this\Nis different from how I started,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.28,0:04:31.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's intentional, because until now
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.44,0:04:34.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this problem has been\Nquantified using mass:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.68,0:04:37.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.52,0:04:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.28,0:04:42.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why do we talk about food\Nin terms of weight?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.36,0:04:44.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it's easy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.80,0:04:48.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can look at a photograph\Nand determine tonnage on a ship
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.32,0:04:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by using a simple pocket calculator.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.60,0:04:53.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can weigh trucks,\Nairplanes and oxcarts.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.88,0:04:57.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what we care about\Nin food is nutritional value.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.04,0:05:02.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not all foods are created equal,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.20,0:05:03.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if they weigh the same.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.92,0:05:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This I learned firsthand
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.40,0:05:10.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I moved from Ethiopia\Nto the US for university.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.20,0:05:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Upon my return back home,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.36,0:05:16.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my father, who was so excited to see me,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.60,0:05:20.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,greeted me by asking why I was fat.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.96,0:05:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, turns out that eating
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.76,0:05:31.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,approximately the same amount of food\Nas I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.64,0:05:34.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had actually lent\Na certain fullness to my figure.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.76,0:05:40.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is why we should care about calories,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.88,0:05:42.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not about mass.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.56,0:05:45.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is calories which sustain us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.88,0:05:52.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So 214 trillion calories\Nis a very large number,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.72,0:05:55.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not even the most dedicated of us
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.88,0:05:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think in the hundreds\Nof trillions of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.84,0:06:00.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me break this down differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.88,0:06:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An alternative way to think about this
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.24,0:06:08.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to think about it in Big Macs.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.12,0:06:10.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,214 trillion calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.76,0:06:13.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.00,0:06:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means the world will be short\N379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.24,0:06:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is more Big Macs\Nthan McDonald's has ever produced.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.96,0:06:30.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how did we get\Nto these numbers in the first place?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.04,0:06:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're not made up.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.40,0:06:37.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This map shows you\Nwhere the world was 40 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.24,0:06:41.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shows you net calorie gaps\Nin every country in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.28,0:06:42.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, simply put,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.76,0:06:45.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is just calories\Nconsumed in that country
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.80,0:06:48.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,minus calories produced\Nin that same country.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.88,0:06:51.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not a statement\Non malnutrition or anything else.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.68,0:06:55.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's simply saying how many calories\Nare consumed in a single year
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.72,0:06:57.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,minus how many are produced.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.60,0:07:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.00,0:07:02.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.40,0:07:04.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have some in storage for a rainy day.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.08,0:07:07.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Red countries are net calorie importers.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.92,0:07:09.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The deeper, the brighter the red,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.88,0:07:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more you're importing.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.20,0:07:16.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,40 years ago, such few countries\Nwere net exporters of calories,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.68,0:07:18.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could count them with one hand.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.36,0:07:21.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of the African continent,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.48,0:07:24.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe, most of Asia,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.12,0:07:26.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,South America excluding Argentina,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.16,0:07:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were all net importers of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.56,0:07:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what's surprising is that China\Nused to actually be food self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.68,0:07:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India was a big net importer of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.08,0:07:39.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,40 years later, this is today.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.96,0:07:43.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see the drastic transformation\Nthat's occurred in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.04,0:07:47.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Brazil has emerged\Nas an agricultural powerhouse.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.56,0:07:50.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.84,0:07:53.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India has actually flipped\Nfrom red to blue.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.84,0:07:56.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's become food self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.12,0:07:58.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And China went from that light blue
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.60,0:08:01.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the brightest red\Nthat you see on this map.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.28,0:08:04.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get here? What happened?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.96,0:08:08.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this chart shows you India and Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.44,0:08:11.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.44,0:08:16.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How is it that two regions\Nthat started off so similarly
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.60,0:08:18.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in such similar trajectories
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.76,0:08:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,take such different paths?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.92,0:08:22.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India had a green revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.00,0:08:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not a single African country\Nhad a green revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.12,0:08:29.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The net outcome?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.36,0:08:31.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India is food self-sufficient
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.08,0:08:34.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the past decade\Nhas actually been exporting calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.48,0:08:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The African continent now imports\Nover 300 trillion calories a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.28,0:08:43.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then we add China, the green line.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.60,0:08:46.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember the switch\Nfrom the blue to the bright red?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.12,0:08:50.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happened and when did it happen?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.20,0:08:53.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China seemed to be\Non a very similar path to India
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.08,0:08:55.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until the start of the 21st century,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.88,0:08:57.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where it suddenly flipped.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.40,0:09:00.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A young and growing population
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.44,0:09:03.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,combined with significant economic growth
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.56,0:09:05.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made its mark with a big bang
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.00,0:09:08.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and no one in the markets saw it coming.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.52,0:09:13.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This flip was everything\Nto global agricultural markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.28,0:09:16.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Luckily now, South America
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.12,0:09:21.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was starting to boom\Nat the same time as China's rise,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.36,0:09:25.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so therefore, supply and demand\Nwere still somewhat balanced.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.32,0:09:27.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question becomes,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.64,0:09:30.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where do we go from here?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.80,0:09:33.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oddly enough,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.36,0:09:34.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not a new story,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.80,0:09:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except this time\Nit's not just a story of China.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.20,0:09:41.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a continuation of China,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.60,0:09:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an amplification of Africa
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.72,0:09:45.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a paradigm shift in India.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.60,0:09:48.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2023,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.00,0:09:54.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Africa's population is forecasted\Nto overtake that of India's and China's.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.08,0:09:56.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2023, these three regions combined
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.76,0:09:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will make up over half\Nthe world's population.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.40,0:10:05.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This crossover point starts to present\Nreally interesting challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.44,0:10:07.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for global food security.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.20,0:10:10.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And a few years later,\Nwe're hit hard with that reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.12,0:10:15.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does the world look like in 10 years?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.12,0:10:21.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So far, as I mentioned,\NIndia has been food self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.04,0:10:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most forecasters predict\Nthat this will continue.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.20,0:10:26.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We disagree.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.16,0:10:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India will soon become\Na net importer of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.32,0:10:33.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This will be driven both by the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.60,0:10:37.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that demand is growing\Nfrom a population growth standpoint
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.12,0:10:38.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plus economic growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.40,0:10:39.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will be driven by both.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.68,0:10:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And even if you have\Noptimistic assumptions
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.40,0:10:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around production growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.32,0:10:46.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it will make that slight flip.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.96,0:10:50.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That slight flip\Ncan have huge implications.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.80,0:10:56.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next, Africa will continue\Nto be a net importer of calories,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.36,0:10:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,again driven by population growth\Nand economic growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.12,0:11:04.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is again assuming optimistic\Nproduction growth assumptions.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.04,0:11:05.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then China,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.48,0:11:08.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where population is flattening out,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.08,0:11:10.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calorie consumption will explode
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.08,0:11:13.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the types of calories consumed
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.12,0:11:16.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are also starting to be\Nhigher-calorie-content foods.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.60,0:11:19.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so therefore,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.36,0:11:21.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these three regions combined
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.24,0:11:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start to present a really interesting\Nchallenge for the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.56,0:11:28.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Until now, countries with calorie deficits
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.68,0:11:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been able to meet these deficits
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.28,0:11:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by importing from surplus regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.72,0:11:36.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By surplus regions, I'm talking about
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.56,0:11:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,North America, South America and Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.72,0:11:42.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This line chart over here shows you
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.16,0:11:46.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the growth and the projected growth\Nover the next decade of production
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.48,0:11:48.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from North America,\NSouth America and Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.80,0:11:50.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What it doesn't show you
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.24,0:11:53.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that most of this growth is actually\Ngoing to come from South America.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.64,0:11:56.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most of this growth
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.08,0:12:00.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to come\Nat the huge cost of deforestation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.24,0:12:06.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so when you look\Nat the combined demand increase
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.04,0:12:09.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coming from India, China\Nand the African continent,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.20,0:12:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and look at it versus\Nthe combined increase in production
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.04,0:12:15.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coming from India,\NChina, the African continent,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.84,0:12:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,North America, South America and Europe,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.28,0:12:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are left with\Na 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.72,0:12:26.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one we can't produce.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.48,0:12:30.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this, by the way, is actually assuming\Nwe take all the extra calories
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.44,0:12:32.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,produced in North America,\NSouth America and Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.88,0:12:38.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and export them solely\Nto India, China and Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.20,0:12:42.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I just presented to you\Nis a vision of an impossible world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.52,0:12:45.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can do something to change that.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.40,0:12:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can change consumption patterns,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.72,0:12:50.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can reduce food waste,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.00,0:12:54.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or we can make a bold commitment
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.24,0:12:56.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to increasing yields exponentially.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.72,0:12:59.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I'm not going to go into discussing
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.88,0:13:02.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing consumption patterns\Nor reducing food waste,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.40,0:13:05.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because those conversations\Nhave been going on for some time now.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.48,0:13:06.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nothing has happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.72,0:13:10.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nothing has happened\Nbecause those arguments
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.20,0:13:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ask the surplus regions\Nto change their behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.16,0:13:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on behalf of deficit regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.88,0:13:19.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Waiting for others\Nto change their behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.48,0:13:21.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on your behalf, for your survival,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.00,0:13:23.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a terrible idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.52,0:13:25.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's unproductive.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.56,0:13:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'd like to suggest an alternative\Nthat comes from the red regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.96,0:13:34.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China, India, Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.36,0:13:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China is constrained in terms\Nof how much more land it actually has
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.68,0:13:39.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,available for agriculture,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.24,0:13:43.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it has massive\Nwater resource availability issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.04,0:13:46.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the answer really lies\Nin India and in Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.84,0:13:52.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India has some upside\Nin terms of potential yield increases.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.80,0:13:55.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this is the gap\Nbetween its current yield
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.40,0:13:58.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the theoretical\Nmaximum yield it can achieve.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.72,0:14:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has some unfarmed\Narable land remaining, but not much,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.96,0:14:05.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India is quite land-constrained.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.24,0:14:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the African continent,\Non the other hand,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.92,0:14:12.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has vast amounts of arable land remaining
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.24,0:14:14.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and significant\Nupside potential in yields.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.08,0:14:18.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somewhat simplified picture here,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.20,0:14:23.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if you look at sub-Saharan\NAfrican yields in corn today,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.24,0:14:26.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are where North American\Nyields were in 1940.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.60,0:14:32.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't have 70-plus years\Nto figure this out,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.36,0:14:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it means we need to try something new
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.92,0:14:37.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we need to try something different.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.40,0:14:40.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The solution starts with reforms.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.88,0:14:45.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to reform and commercialize
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.88,0:14:48.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the agricultural industries in Africa
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.44,0:14:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in India.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.32,0:14:52.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, by commercialization --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.48,0:14:55.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,commercialization is not\Nabout commercial farming alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.64,0:14:58.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization is about leveraging data
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.24,0:15:00.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to craft better policies,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.56,0:15:02.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to improve infrastructure,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.20,0:15:04.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to lower the transportation costs
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.08,0:15:08.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to completely reform\Nbanking and insurance industries.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.36,0:15:11.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization\Nis about taking agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.48,0:15:15.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from too risky an endeavor\Nto one where fortunes can be made.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.60,0:15:18.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization\Nis not about just farmers.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.88,0:15:23.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization is about\Nthe entire agricultural system.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.84,0:15:28.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But commercialization\Nalso means confronting the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.92,0:15:32.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can no longer place\Nthe burden of growth
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.36,0:15:34.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on small-scale farmers alone,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.60,0:15:41.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and accepting that commercial farms\Nand the introduction of commercial farms
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.88,0:15:44.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could provide certain economies of scale
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.60,0:15:46.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that even small-scale\Nfarmers can leverage.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.04,0:15:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is not about small-scale farming\Nor commercial agriculture,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.04,0:15:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or big agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.92,0:15:59.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can create the first successful models\Nof the coexistence and success
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.20,0:16:02.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of small-scale farming\Nalongside commercial agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.00,0:16:06.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is because, for the first time ever,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.04,0:16:09.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most critical tool\Nfor success in the industry --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.80,0:16:11.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,data and knowledge --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.32,0:16:13.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is becoming cheaper by the day.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.72,0:16:18.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And very soon, it won't matter\Nhow much money you have
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.16,0:16:19.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or how big you are
Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.64,0:16:23.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make optimal decisions\Nand maximize probability of success
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.96,0:16:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in reaching your intended goal.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.32,0:16:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Companies like Gro are working\Nreally hard to make this a reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.60,0:16:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if we can commit\Nto this new, bold initiative,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.20,0:16:38.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to this new, bold change,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:38.24,0:16:43.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not only can we solve\Nthe 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.68,0:16:46.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we can actually set the world\Non a whole new path.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.96,0:16:51.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India can remain food self-sufficient
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.08,0:16:55.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Africa can emerge\Nas the world's next dark blue region.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:57.24,0:16:59.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The new question is,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.48,0:17:03.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do we produce 214 trillion calories
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.64,0:17:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
Dialogue: 0,0:17:08.76,0:17:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have the solution.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.96,0:17:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We just need to act on it.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.52,0:17:14.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.76,0:17:18.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)