How Conspiracies Work

Yes. We are on the bed.

You could call it an homage
to old YouTube.

I call it...

comfortable for my butt.

Conspiracy theories.

So as somebody who's lost, like,
many a night

tumbling down Wikipedia
rabbit holes,

I- I love a good conspiracy theory.

It's like, "Ooh, aliens!"

"Ooh, how do people make
such big triangles?"

I think that that it's just fun

imagining the world
to be more interesting

than what I was taught.

But then something weird happened?

A couple weeks ago,
I found myself

in the middle of
a conspiracy theory.

And then, all of the fun
was replaced with just...

pure confusion.

The conspiracy itself is, like,
weird and fun and innocuous.

However, what I really
cared about is, like,

how do you get to that point?

How do you start seeing signs
that were never there to begin with.

That's what I want to know.

And I also want to, like, disprove
this whole conspiracy theory

'cause it's whack.

However, as the person
in, in the middle of all of this,

I can imagine why I'd be
seen as unreliable.

So...

...I'm calling on a friend!

Uhh, I don't know how to put this.
How do you put this?

People think that I am
part of the Illuminati.

Uh-

Well, are you?

[laughs]

This is just one of the comments,

but I think it really
summarizes the issue.

"I find this channel to
be highly disingenuous-"

"-Corporate product masked
to have the appearance of

an independently run YouTube channel."
"There's no way a single person is that skilled

at animation, editing, presenting, research-"
"Everything is too professional for that-"

"There's no way this girl
is the one who did this"

"A production company put this video
together with you just as a host."

So now- Now...
Now what?

Why am I calling you? Right?

Yeah. I'm, like, "How do you
want me to prove this?"

I am wondering if you could explain
to me and the viewers of this video,

how could somebody see
something so mundane

that's just, like, a part
of my life, I guess.

How could someone see that
and think, like, "There must be more."

I'm interested. I'm fascinated.

'Cause I'm, like...

I'm not only interested in your
conspiracy, as interesting as it is.

I think conspiracies have a, have a
knack for, especially nowadays,

to just....

just ruin people's lives,
you know?

I'm gonna solve this mystery.
♪ Scooby-dooby-doo ♪

We don't have the copyright on that.

We're going to investigate
this conundrum. I'm-I'm-

You're doubling down on it, I see.

Hello, I'm Taha.

I'm apparently Sabrina's
only British friend.

I've been given free reign
over this part of the video,

so, welcome to my chaos.

Sabrina's asked me to get into
the mind of a Sabrina Cruz truther

and figure out what's going on.

Okay, hold on.

It needs pictures.

Let's read some conspiracy theories.

"This is a fake channel

A propaganda channel paid by others.

Why the spotty uploads?"

Maybe because it's-
it's just one person?

I love this one.

"Who do you work for?

We all know this isn't your channel.
Whose script are you reading?"

"I think she works for the government."

Oh. This is the best one.

"Her main channel is crash course
with 10 million subs."

John and Hank Green,
eat your heart out.

Okay, so basically,

people think that Sabrina
doesn't make her own videos,

that she's a presenter,
that maybe she works for the government.

How did people get here?

Let's figure it out.

Okay. So, here's what I found out.

There are loads of ways to define
conspiracy theories,

but they all kind of boil down
to the same thing.

It's basically the belief that
a group of people

are secretly working together
to do something bad.

But here's the thing:

When we talk about conspiracy theories,

we aren't talking about every time
anyone has ever got together

to secretly do bad things.

So what are people talking about
when they say "conspiracy theory"?

Or when they talk about conspiracy
theories on the internet?

They talk about a specific type
of conspiracy theory.

It's the type of conspiracy theory that
Sabrina is in the middle of right now.

These conspiracy theories
seem to be unlikely by design.

Here's the really interesting thing that I found.

These theories have pretty distinctive
features that you can spot

and these features make them
not only unlikely to be true

but also difficult to argue against.

These features are that
they are speculative,

based on educated, or,
not-so-educated guesswork

rather than solid evidence.

The rationale being that
if a conspiracy was successful

then it wouldn't have left a trace.

They can become contrarian.

They form in opposition to the
obvious or official explanation.

Conspiracy theories will dismiss
this explanation, citing

"That's what they want you to think."

Because of this, theories
can become esoteric.

If the obvious explanation isn't true,
then the theory is based on speculation.

The conspiracy theory can run wild.

Explanations can become increasingly
detached from reality.

Theories are also amateurish.

Now, that isn't a comment on
a theorist's intelligence.

That's a comment on how qualified
these theorists are.

In most cases, they don't have
the relevant expertise

to be conclusively analyzing evidence.

Even when they do,
they're in the small minority

and the professional consensus
doesn't agree with them.

And is it more likely that
all experts are lying

or that most informed and qualified people
are coming to the same conclusion.

Conspiracies can also become premodern.

These conspiracies believe that
incredibly complex events

can be controlled by a small number
of people acting in secret.

Nothing is a coincidence
or a series of uncorrelated events,

but a coordinated conspiracy.

And lastly, these conspiracies
are self-sealing.

What this means is that

the conspiracy is difficult
to argue against.

If a conspiracy is based on speculation,

it dismisses the obvious explanation
in favor of a more obscure one.

if it ignores expert consensus

and believes that a small group of people
can control complex events,

any explanation against the conspiracy
is just "what they want you to think."

Now, that doesn't mean that every time
you hear the words "conspiracy theory"

you should just dismiss it.

Because we know that throughout history,
there are well-documented conspiracies.

I find this really interesting concept

that distinguish between
conspiracy theory and conspiracy fact.

Essentially, when you have
a bunch of solid evidence

that supports the fact
that a conspiracy occurred,

you can consider it fact.

But it isn't sensible to believe
conspiracy theories,

the ones that tick all of the boxes
that make them unbelievable.

And not unbelievable in a way like,
"Oh, that's unbelievable!"

In a way that's like,
"I don't believe you."

And even if conspiracy theories
aren't true,

they still have a function.

Not a good function,
but still a function.

So, what is it?

People believe conspiracies

that reinforce their
political or ideological bias.

Nobody's believing a conspiracy theory

that goes against what they think
the world is like.

We see patterns and theories that
reinforce our ideology

and we're happy to get onboard.

In this way, conspiracy theories
are a type of ideological propaganda.

By spreading the theory, you also end up
spreading your own world view.

In order to believe a theory,

you have to believe that
the world is a certain way.

So, by convincing people
of your conspiracy theory,

you are also implicitly convincing them
that the world is the way

that you believe it to be.

Okay. So, in the process of
researching this video,

I ended up going down a lot
of conspiracy theory rabbit holes.

Some of them I obviously know were untrue,
but others I thought,

"Maybe they could be true?"

That was kind of scary to me.

And I wanted to find out what it was
about conspiracy theories

that made them so... attractive.

And that's when I got into the
psychology of conspiracy theories.

There are 2 key psychological phenomenon
that drive a natural inclination

towards conspiracy theories.

First is "pattern perception".

We're bad at recognizing randomness.

Instead, we are more likely to see
a pattern when there is none.

And, secondly, is "agency detection".

We tend to think that events occur
due to agents acting intentionally,

rather than recognizing neutral
or coincidental occurrences.

These 2 phenomena are compounded
by cognitive biases

that make conspiracy theories believable.

These include "proportionality bias,"

which leads to thinking that
the cause of an event

has to be as big as its consequences.

When the explanation is not as grand
as the event itself,

people can find it difficult to believe.

This means we assume things happen
on purpose rather than by accident.

When the conspiracy explains
how something was intentional,

believing that it was an accident
becomes difficult.

"Confirmation bias" means that
once we believe a conspiracy,

we tend to only pay attention to
evidence that supports our conclusion.

So, now I know why my brain
thinks the way it does.

But doesn't necessarily change the fact

that I still felt like those
conspiracy theories were true.

So, now what?

Here is where it gets interesting.

One of the books I ended up
reading for this video...

was written by a professor

that I had last year at university.

So, I just asked him.

This is Quassim Cassam,

a professor of Philosophy
at the Universtiy of Warwick.

His main research interests are knowledge,

perception,

intellectual vices, and

conspiracy theories.

I also owe him an essay.

So, yeah, my sort of, like,
initial question

that I didn't know how to
tackle myself was just...

how do you think about
being healthily skeptical

versus, sort of,
unnecessarily conspiratorial?

[Quassim:] Right

I think that lots of people

that believe conspiracy theories,

think that it's a good way to
express their skepticism

and lack of trust in government
and authority.

My own view is that, is that, well,

of course it's a very good thing

to hold an establishment to account.

And it's very helpful

when journalists and whistle-blowers
come up with evidence.

I mean, I have to concede

that- that- that the sources that
I regard as trustworthy

are of course sources that,
to some extent,

tell me the things I want to hear.

It's very easy to get
sucked into the vortex,

you know, so questions
you ask yourself,

you know, with respect to your
own favorite conspiracy theory,

is that, well, what would
convince you that your theory

is false?

It- would anything convince you?
That your theory is false?

If the answer is that, well, actually,
what anybody else comes up with,

you're going to state your guards,
you're going to continue to say

there was a conspiracy,
well then, then that's the point

at which you really need to kind of,
you know, pull yourself out, you know.

But human beings are fallable, right.
We all make mistakes, you know,

We're all subject to biases
of all various kinds and wishful thinking.

The recommendation that I would make is:
just be aware of that.

Be aware of these failings of people,
of human beings in general,

including ourselves.

Hello! Different angle.

Yeah, basically, I was so stressed trying
to interview my professor

and sound intellectual that I completely
forgot to record my thoughts,

straight after my interview.

I, I just lay down and took a nap.
So, yeah.

I, I feel like I, I have a pretty
good idea of how conspiracy theories

are formed, how conspiracy theorists think
about them, and,

and why we think about them

and I feel like I understand
what's going on in Sabrina's

comment section.

So, I guess the final thing to do
is to call Sabrina back and, and

tell her everything we found out.

[phone line ringing]

Hello! How's it going?

[Sabrina] Hello! I-

[Taha] What's it like being
part of the government?

[Sabrina] oh, are we doubling down on that?
Is that what ended up happening?

You're just now a conspiracy theorist?

[Taha] The, the fact is, that, like,
people do, throughout history,

conspire to do bad things.

It's not like that's unheard of.

But some of those things are like,
verifiably true.

Like they're-there's documented evidence,
there's whistle-blowers,

Those can't be, like, put in the same
bucket as a conspiracy theory

in the traditional sense.

You know, it's important to
make that distinction.

And then once you get into sort of
the world of conspiracy theories,

it's just a never-ending bucket of chaos.

The thing that I discovered, which,
you're going to find very comforting,

so, if you're a hardcore
conspiracy theorist,

there's basically nothing you can
say to them that they will, will take

on board because if you say anything
against any of the conspiracies

they believe, they'll just say
"that's what they want you to think."

[Sabrina] that's great. [laughs]

[Taha:] essentially, for whatever reason,
it's more comfortable for them

and their- the way they think
about the world

to believe that you are, sort of,
like, part of the Illuminati.

You know, a government mole,
than it is to just believe

that you are a talented person.

And, like, what are you
supposed to do with that?

My, my lecturer, he did talk about
sort of, like, being conspiracy curious.

He really emphasized the idea that,
um, a wise man porportions his

beliefs to the evidence.

And, what he meant by that was
essentially, you know, is there evidence

that I can, you know, rely on,
to

conclude the things that I wanna conclude?

Most people, like myself, are just
conspiracy curious.

And now that I understand how conspiracies
come about, I can really quickly spot

when I'm falling into these biases.

So, just by learning about them,
it's, like, really opened my eye into all

of these ways that I can be biased,
and all of these ways that I am vulnerable

to the conspiracy thinking.

[Sabrina:] Well that's a good lesson.

[Taha:] Thumbs up!

[Sabrina:] Thanks, friend.

Oh, my phone landed on my ankle
and it hurts so bad.

That call was exactly what I expected,

and exactly what I didn't wanna hear.

I think what freaked me out the most is
just, like, how easy it seems to be to

fall for conspiracy theories.

And to think that our brain, like,
develops these tricks,

presumably to help us survive, is now

something we need to
actively fight against.

But you can't fight against it too hard,
or else you might become extremely skeptical.

And believe in nothing.

It's just so hard.

And maybe the easiest thing to do,
at least in my case,

in my very innocuous little
conspiracy theory case,

is...

to make them...

true!

Duh duh duh!
What could she possibly mean?

I'll explain next week.

But either way, have a lovely day!

Please don't become a conspiracy theorist.
Take care of yourself

and your little brain.

Bye!