Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next

I am British.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Never before have the phrase
"I am British" elicited so much pity.

I come from an island

where many of us like to believe
there's been a lot of continuity

over the last thousand years.

We tend to have historically
imposed change on others

but done much less of it ourselves.

So it came as an immense shock to me

when I woke up on the morning
of the 24th of June

to discover that my country had voted
to leave the European Union,

my Prime Minister had resigned,

and Scotland was considering a referendum
that could bring to an end

the very existence of the United Kingdom.

So that was an immense shock for me,

and it was an immense
shock for many people,

but it was also something that,
over the following several days,

created a complete political meltdown

in my country.

There were calls for a second referendum,

almost as if, following a sports match,

we could ask the opposition for a replay.

Everybody was blaming everybody else.

People blamed the Prime Minister

for calling the referendum
in the first place.

They blamed the leader of the opposition
for not fighting it hard enough.

The young accused the old.

The educated blamed
the less well-educated.

That complete meltdown was made even worse

by the most tragic element of it:

levels of xenophobia and racist abuse

in the streets of Britain at a level
that I have never seen before

in my lifetime.

People are now talking about whether
my country is becoming a little England,

or, as one of my colleagues put it,

whether we're about to become
a 1950s nostalgia theme park

floating in the Atlantic Ocean.

(Laughter)

But my question is really,

should we have the degree of shock

that we've experienced since?

Was it something
that took place overnight?

Or are there deeper structural factors
that have led us to where we are today?

So I want to take a step back

and ask two very basic questions.

First, what does Brexit represent,

not just for my country,

but for all of us around the world?

And second, what can we do about it?

How should we all respond?

So first, what does Brexit represent?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Brexit teaches us many things

about our society

and about societies around the world.

It highlights in ways that we seem
embarrassingly unaware of

how divided our societies are.

The vote split along lines of age,

education, class, and geography.

Young people didn't turn out
to vote in great numbers,

but those that did wanted to remain.

Older people really wanted
to leave the European Union.

Geographically, it was London and Scotland
that most strongly committed

to being part of the European Union,

while in other parts of the country,

there was very strong ambivalence.

Those divisions are things we really
need to recognize and take seriously,

but more profoundly,
the vote teaches us something

about the nature of politics today.

Contemporary politics is no longer
just about right and left.

It's no longer just about tax and spend.

It's about globalization.

The fault line of contemporary politics is
between those that embrace globalization

and those that fear globalization.

(Applause)

If we look at why those
who wanted to leave --

we call them "Leavers,"
as opposed to "Remainers" --

we see two factors in the opinion polls

that really mattered.

The first was immigration,
and the second sovereignty,

and these represent a desire
for people to take back control

of their own lives,

and the feeling that they
are unrepresented by politicians.

But those ideas are ones
that signify fear and alienation.

They represent a retreat
back towards nationalism and borders

in ways that many of us would reject.

What I want to suggest is the picture
is more complicated than that,

that liberal internationalists,
like myself,

and I firmly include
myself in that picture,

need to write ourselves
back into the picture

in order to understand

how we've got to where we are today.

When we look at the voting patterns

across the United Kingdom,

we can visibly see the divisions.

The blue areas show Remain,

and the red areas Leave.

When I looked at this,
what personally struck me

was the very little time in my life

I've actually spent
in many of the red areas.

I suddenly realized that,

looking at the top 50 areas in the U.K.

that have the strongest Leave vote,

I've spent a combined total
of four days of my life in those areas.

In some of those places,

I didn't even know the names
of the voting districts.

It was a real shock to me,

and it suggested that people like me
who think of ourselves as inclusive,

open, and tolerant,

perhaps don't know
our own countries and societies

nearly as well as we like to believe.

(Applause)

And the challenge that comes from that
is we need to find a new way

to narrate globalization to those people,

to recognize that for those people who
have not necessarily been to University,

who haven't necessarily
grown up with the Internet,

that don't get opportunities to travel,

they may be unpersuaded by the narrative
that we find persuasive

in our often liberal bubbles.

(Applause)

It means that we need to reach out
more broadly and understand.

In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled
the politics of fear and hatred,

creating lies and mistrust

around, for instance,
the idea that the vote on Europe

could reduce the number of refugees
and asylum seekers coming to Europe,

when the vote on leaving had nothing
to do with immigration

from outside the European Union.

But for a significant majority
of the Leave voters,

the concern was disillusionment
with the political establishment.

This was a protest vote for many,

a sense that nobody represented them,

that they couldn't find a political party
that spoke for them,

and so they rejected
that political establishment.

This replicates around Europe

and much of the liberal democratic world.

We see it with the rise in popularity
of Donald Trump in the United States,

with the growing nationalism
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,

with the increase in popularity
of Marine Le Pen in France.

The specter of Brexit

is in all of our societies.

So the question I think we need to ask
is my second question,

which is how should we
collectively respond?

For all of us who care

about creating liberal, open,
tolerant societies,

we urgently need a new vision,

a vision of a more tolerant,
inclusive globalization,

one that brings people with us
rather than leaving them behind.

That vision of globalization

is one that has to start by a recognition
of the positive benefits of globalization.

The consensus amongst economists
is that free trade,

the movement of capital,
the movement of people across borders,

benefit everyone on aggregate.

The consensus amongst
international relations scholars

is that globalization
brings interdependence,

which brings cooperation and peace.

But globalization also has
redistributive effects.

It creates winners and losers.

To take the example of migration,

we know that immigration is a net
positive for the economy as a whole

under almost all circumstances.

But we also have to be very aware

that there are redistributive
consequences,

that importantly, low-skilled immigration

can lead to a reduction in wages
for the most impoverished in our societies

and also put pressure on house prices.

That doesn't detract from the fact
that it's positive,

but it means more people
have to share in those benefits

and recognize them.

In 2002, the former Secretary-General
of the United Nations Kofi Annan

gave a speech at Yale University,

and that speech was the on the topic
of inclusive globalization.

That was the speech
in which he coined that term.

And he said, and I paraphrase,

"The glass house of globalization
has to be open to all

if it is to remain secure.

Bigotry and ignorance

are the ugly face

of exclusionary
and antagonistic globalization."

That idea of inclusive globalization

was briefly revived in 2008

in a conference on progressive governance

involving many of the leaders
of European countries.

But amid austerity
and the financial crisis of 2008,

the concept disappeared
almost with a trace.

Globalization has been taken
to support a neoliberal agenda.

It's perceived to be
part of an elite agenda

rather than something that benefits all.

And it needs to be reclaimed
on a far more inclusive basis

than it is today.

So the question is,
how can we achieve that goal?

How can we balance on the one hand
addressing fear and alienation

while on the other hand
refusing vehemently

to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?

That is the question for all of us.

And I think, as a social scientist,
that social science

offers some places to start.

Our transformation has to be about
both ideas and about material change,

and I want to give you four ideas

as a starting point.

The first relates to the idea
of civic education.

What stands out from Brexit

is the gap between public perception
and empirical reality.

It's been suggested that we've moved
to a post-factual society,

where evidence and truth no longer matter,

and lies have equal status
to the clarity of evidence.

So how can we --

(Applause) --

how can we rebuild respect for truth

and evidence into our liberal democracies?

It has to begin with education,
but it has to start with the recognition

that there are huge gaps.

In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI published
a survey on attitudes to immigration,

and it showed that as numbers
of immigrants increase,

so public concern with immigration
also increases,

although it obviously didn't
unpack causality,

because this could equally be to do
not so much with numbers

but the political
and media narrative around it.

But the same survey

also revealed

huge public misinformation

and misunderstanding
about the nature of immigration.

For example, in these attitudes
in the United Kingdom,

the public believed that levels of asylum

were a greater proportion
of immigration than they were,

but they also believed the levels
of educational migration

were far lower as a proportion
of overall migration

than they actually are.

So we have to address
this misinformation,

the gap between perception and reality
on key aspects of globalization.

And that can't just be something
that's left to our schools,

although that's important
to begin at an early age.

It has to be about lifelong
civic participation

and public engagement
that we all encourage as societies.

The second thing that I think
is an opportunity

is the idea to encourage

more interaction
across diverse communities.

(Applause)

One of the things that stands out
for me very strikingly,

looking at immigration attitudes
in the United Kingdom,

is that ironically, the regions
of my country that are

the most tolerant of immigrants

have the highest numbers of immigrants.

So for instance, London and the Southeast
have the highest numbers of immigrants,

and they are also by far
the most tolerant areas.

It's those areas of the country
that have the lowest levels of immigration

that actually are the most exclusionary
and intolerant towards migrants.

So we need to encourage exchange programs.

We need to ensure that older generations
who maybe can't travel get access

to the Internet.

We need to encourage,
even on a local and national level,

more movement, more participation,

more interaction with people
who we don't know

and whose views we might
not necessarily agree with.

The third thing that I think
is crucial, though,

and this is really fundamental,

is that we have to ensure
that everybody shares

in the benefits of globalization.

This illustration from the Financial Times
post-Brexit is really striking.

It shows tragically that those people
who voted to leave the European Union

were those who actually benefited
the most materially

from trade with the European Union.

But the problem is that those people
in those areas didn't perceive themselves

to be beneficiaries.

They didn't believe that they
were actually getting access

to material benefits of increased trade
and increase mobility

around the world.

I work on questions predominantly
to do with refugees,

and one of the ideas I spent
a lot of my time preaching,

mainly to developing countries
around the world,

is that in order to encourage
the integration of refugees,

we can't just benefit
the refugee populations,

we also have to address the concerns
of the host communities

in local areas.

But in looking at that,

one of the policy prescriptions
is that we have to provide

disproportionately better
education facilities, health facilities,

access to social services,

in those regions of high immigration,

to address the concerns
of those local populations.

But while we encourage that
around the developing world,

we don't take those lessons home
and incorporate them

in our own societies.

Furthermore, if we're going
to really take seriously

the need to ensure people share
in the economic benefits,

our businesses and corporations

need a model of globalization

that recognizes that they too
have to take people with them.

The fourth and final idea
I want to put forward

is an idea that we need
more responsible politics.

There's very little
social science evidence

that compares attitudes on globalization,

but from the surveys that do exist,

what we can see is there's huge variation

across different countries

and time periods in those countries

for attitudes and tolerance
of questions like

migration and mobility on the one hand
and free trade on the other.

But one hypothesis that I think emerges

from a cursory look at that data

is the idea that polarized societies

are far less tolerant of globalization.

It's the societies
like Sweden in the past,

like Canada today,

where there is a centrist politics,

where right and left work together,

that we encourage supportive attitudes
towards globalization.

And what we see around the world today
is a tragic polarization,

a failure to have dialogue
between the extremes in politics,

and a gap in terms
of that liberal center ground

that can encourage communication
and a shared understanding.

We might not achieve that today,

but at the very least we have to call
upon our politicians and our media

to drop a language of fear
and be far more tolerant of one another.

(Applause)

These ideas are very tentative,

and that's in part because this needs
to be an inclusive and shared project.

I am still British.

I am still European.

I am still a global citizen.

For those of us who believe
that our identities are not

mutually exclusive,

we have to all work together

to ensure that globalization
takes everyone with us

and doesn't leave people behind.

Only then will we truly reconcile
democracy and globalization.

Thank you.

(Applause)