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Violence
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and war.
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The insane brutality of ISIS continues,
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the Russians are invading Ukraine,
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and the Palestinians and Israelis
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continue to slug it out.
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Does that make you feel gloomy?
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Well,
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don't.
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Because if you look at the numbers,
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war actually seems
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to be going out of fashion,
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while the global population
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is at an all time high.
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It seems that we live
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in the most peaceful period
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in human history.
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How is this possible?
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(music)
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As of September 2014,
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there were 4 conflicts going on
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in the world that'd caused at least
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10,000 people to die since January 2013,
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9 conflicts that killed
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more than 1,000 people,
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and 13 that killed
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more than 100 since January 2013.
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Not really peaceful,
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but consider this:
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of all the conflicts going on,
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none is an active war between countries.
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They are either civil wars
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or local conflicts.
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Although civil wars are terrible
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and cause huge suffering,
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their impact is usually way smaller
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than a war between nations or empires.
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When two nations engage in war,
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they can mobilise much bigger forces,
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have access to all of the state's
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resources and logistics, and
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almost all of the population.
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So why have we transitioned from
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wars between nation states
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to civil wars?
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A lot of it is to do with
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colonialism and the Cold War.
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When the Cold War ended, a major driver of
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armed conflict vanished too.
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But the break up of the
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communist dictatorships
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revealed new or old tensions
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and brought new conflicts
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in the now freed state
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which often resulted in civil war.
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Much more importantly,
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in 1945,
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nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,
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and parts of Latin America
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were under colonial rule.
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By 1990,
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all but a few islands were independent.
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But wait.
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Couldn't you argue that what today's
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multinational corporations
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are doing in the third world
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is just as bad as colonialism?
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Let's look at Congo.
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It was established as a colony in 1885
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by the Belgium king.
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An area 80 times the size of Belgium.
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Violence committed against
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the indigenous Congolese
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and the ruthless system of
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economic exploitation
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had killed about half of the population
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by 1908.
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About 10 million Congolese were executed
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or starved to death.
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Millions were mutilated and traumatised.
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The economic exploitation of the Congo
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remained the top priority,
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and forced labor never really ceased
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completely until the end of Belgium rule
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in 1960.
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Which is not really that long ago.
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So, no.
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Colonialism was much worse than
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vulture capitalism is today,
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and it ended just two generations ago.
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Most of the conflicts
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that are going on right now
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are in areas that 60 years ago
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were under foreign control.
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But things are getting better.
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Until 1989,
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victory for one side in a civil war
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was common,
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while nowadays victories are much rarer.
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At the same time,
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negotiated endings have jumped from 10%
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to almost 40%.
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What about the rest of the world?
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Why have nation states
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stopped attacking each other?
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There are 4 major reasons:
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One.
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Democratisation.
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The steady development
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from autocracy to democracy.
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Democracies hardly ever fight each other.
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Of all the state against state wars
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fought since 1900, only a minority
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were fought between democracies.
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Two.
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Globalisation.
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War is just not as effective at achieving
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economic goals as it used to be.
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Today it's almost always cheaper
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to buy resources on the global market
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than to seize them by force.
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People from other nations are
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more valuable to us alive than dead.
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Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.
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Three.
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War is so 20th century.
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Until World War I, warfare was seen as an
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inevitable part of the human experience
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and as a valuable tool which you could use
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to achieve goals when diplomacy
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hit a brick wall.
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Today we have rules that declare acts of
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aggression illegal and stipulate that
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armed forces is only justified in
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self-defence or with the authority of the
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UN Security Council.
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These rules are still broken, but today
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it's harder to do so without sparking
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opposition and disapproval.
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Also, we have an international court for
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war crimes in the Hague,
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and that's a very recent innovation.
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Four.
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Borders are mostly fixed now.
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After World War II,
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territorial wars generally stopped
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when most countries pledged to accept
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international borders
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and respect other nations' autonomy.
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But is all of this just an anomaly,
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or are we on the road to lasting peace?
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Truth is,
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we don't know yet.
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We need a big enough sample to rule out
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the historical average, which is about
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one or two big wars per century.
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We just haven't had enough time since
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World War II to rule out the possibility
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that war is not going away.
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If we don't have one major war
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in the next 75 years,
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we can be really confident
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that humanity is changing.
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So, you see, war might be over.
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Yes, there are nasty conflicts
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going on in many places, but overall,
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things are getting better.
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And we can make them even better
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by speaking up for peace and democracy.