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Why War is Killing Less of Us Than Ever — A Paradox Explained

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    Violence
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    and war.
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    The insane brutality of ISIS continues,
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    the Russians are invading Ukraine,
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    and the Palestinians and Israelis
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    continue to slug it out.
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    Does that make you feel gloomy?
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    Well,
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    don't.
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    Because if you look at the numbers,
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    war actually seems
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    to be going out of fashion,
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    while the global population
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    is at an all time high.
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    It seems that we live
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    in the most peaceful period
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    in human history.
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    How is this possible?
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    (music)
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    As of September 2014,
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    there were 4 conflicts going on
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    in the world that'd caused at least
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    10,000 people to die since January 2013,
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    9 conflicts that killed
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    more than 1,000 people,
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    and 13 that killed
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    more than 100 since January 2013.
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    Not really peaceful,
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    but consider this:
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    of all the conflicts going on,
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    none is an active war between countries.
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    They are either civil wars
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    or local conflicts.
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    Although civil wars are terrible
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    and cause huge suffering,
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    their impact is usually way smaller
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    than a war between nations or empires.
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    When two nations engage in war,
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    they can mobilise much bigger forces,
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    have access to all of the state's
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    resources and logistics, and
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    almost all of the population.
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    So why have we transitioned from
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    wars between nation states
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    to civil wars?
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    A lot of it is to do with
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    colonialism and the Cold War.
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    When the Cold War ended, a major driver of
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    armed conflict vanished too.
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    But the break up of the
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    communist dictatorships
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    revealed new or old tensions
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    and brought new conflicts
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    in the now freed state
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    which often resulted in civil war.
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    Much more importantly,
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    in 1945,
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    nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,
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    and parts of Latin America
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    were under colonial rule.
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    By 1990,
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    all but a few islands were independent.
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    But wait.
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    Couldn't you argue that what today's
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    multinational corporations
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    are doing in the third world
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    is just as bad as colonialism?
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    Let's look at Congo.
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    It was established as a colony in 1885
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    by the Belgium king.
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    An area 80 times the size of Belgium.
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    Violence committed against
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    the indigenous Congolese
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    and the ruthless system of
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    economic exploitation
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    had killed about half of the population
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    by 1908.
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    About 10 million Congolese were executed
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    or starved to death.
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    Millions were mutilated and traumatised.
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    The economic exploitation of the Congo
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    remained the top priority,
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    and forced labor never really ceased
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    completely until the end of Belgium rule
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    in 1960.
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    Which is not really that long ago.
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    So, no.
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    Colonialism was much worse than
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    vulture capitalism is today,
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    and it ended just two generations ago.
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    Most of the conflicts
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    that are going on right now
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    are in areas that 60 years ago
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    were under foreign control.
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    But things are getting better.
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    Until 1989,
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    victory for one side in a civil war
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    was common,
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    while nowadays victories are much rarer.
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    At the same time,
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    negotiated endings have jumped from 10%
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    to almost 40%.
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    What about the rest of the world?
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    Why have nation states
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    stopped attacking each other?
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    There are 4 major reasons:
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    One.
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    Democratisation.
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    The steady development
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    from autocracy to democracy.
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    Democracies hardly ever fight each other.
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    Of all the state against state wars
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    fought since 1900, only a minority
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    were fought between democracies.
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    Two.
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    Globalisation.
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    War is just not as effective at achieving
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    economic goals as it used to be.
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    Today it's almost always cheaper
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    to buy resources on the global market
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    than to seize them by force.
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    People from other nations are
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    more valuable to us alive than dead.
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    Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.
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    Three.
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    War is so 20th century.
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    Until World War I, warfare was seen as an
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    inevitable part of the human experience
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    and as a valuable tool which you could use
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    to achieve goals when diplomacy
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    hit a brick wall.
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    Today we have rules that declare acts of
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    aggression illegal and stipulate that
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    armed forces is only justified in
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    self-defence or with the authority of the
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    UN Security Council.
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    These rules are still broken, but today
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    it's harder to do so without sparking
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    opposition and disapproval.
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    Also, we have an international court for
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    war crimes in the Hague,
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    and that's a very recent innovation.
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    Four.
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    Borders are mostly fixed now.
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    After World War II,
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    territorial wars generally stopped
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    when most countries pledged to accept
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    international borders
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    and respect other nations' autonomy.
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    But is all of this just an anomaly,
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    or are we on the road to lasting peace?
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    Truth is,
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    we don't know yet.
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    We need a big enough sample to rule out
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    the historical average, which is about
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    one or two big wars per century.
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    We just haven't had enough time since
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    World War II to rule out the possibility
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    that war is not going away.
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    If we don't have one major war
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    in the next 75 years,
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    we can be really confident
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    that humanity is changing.
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    So, you see, war might be over.
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    Yes, there are nasty conflicts
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    going on in many places, but overall,
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    things are getting better.
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    And we can make them even better
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    by speaking up for peace and democracy.
Title:
Why War is Killing Less of Us Than Ever — A Paradox Explained
Description:

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Video Language:
English
Duration:
05:46

English subtitles

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