WEBVTT

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Violence


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and war.


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The insane brutality of ISIS continues,


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the Russians are invading Ukraine,

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and the Palestinians and Israelis

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continue to slug it out.


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Does that make you feel gloomy?

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Well,

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don't.

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Because if you look at the numbers,

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war actually seems


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to be going out of fashion,


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while the global population


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is at an all time high.


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It seems that we live


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in the most peaceful period


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in human history.


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How is this possible?

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(music)


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As of September 2014,


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there were 4 conflicts going on


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in the world that'd caused at least


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10,000 people to die since January 2013,

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9 conflicts that killed


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more than 1,000 people,

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and 13 that killed


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more than 100 since January 2013.


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Not really peaceful,

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but consider this:


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of all the conflicts going on,

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none is an active war between countries.


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They are either civil wars


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or local conflicts.


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Although civil wars are terrible


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and cause huge suffering,


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their impact is usually way smaller

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than a war between nations or empires.


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When two nations engage in war,


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they can mobilise much bigger forces,


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have access to all of the state's


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resources and logistics, and

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almost all of the population.


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So why have we transitioned from


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wars between nation states


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to civil wars?

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A lot of it is to do with


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colonialism and the Cold War.

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When the Cold War ended, a major driver of

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armed conflict vanished too.

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But the break up of the


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communist dictatorships


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revealed new or old tensions


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and brought new conflicts


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in the now freed state

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which often resulted in civil war.


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Much more importantly,


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in 1945,


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nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,


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and parts of Latin America


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were under colonial rule.


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By 1990,


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all but a few islands were independent.


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But wait.


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Couldn't you argue that what today's


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multinational corporations


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are doing in the third world


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is just as bad as colonialism?


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Let's look at Congo.


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It was established as a colony in 1885


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by the Belgium king.


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An area 80 times the size of Belgium.


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Violence committed against


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the indigenous Congolese

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and the ruthless system of


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economic exploitation


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had killed about half of the population


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by 1908.


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About 10 million Congolese were executed

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or starved to death.


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Millions were mutilated and traumatised.


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The economic exploitation of the Congo


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remained the top priority,

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and forced labor never really ceased


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completely until the end of Belgium rule


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in 1960.


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Which is not really that long ago.


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So, no.


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Colonialism was much worse than


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vulture capitalism is today,

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and it ended just two generations ago.


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Most of the conflicts


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that are going on right now


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are in areas that 60 years ago


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were under foreign control.


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But things are getting better.


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Until 1989,


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victory for one side in a civil war


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was common,

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while nowadays victories are much rarer.


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At the same time,


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negotiated endings have jumped from 10%


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to almost 40%.


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What about the rest of the world?


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Why have nation states


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stopped attacking each other?


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There are 4 major reasons:


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One.


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Democratisation.


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The steady development


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from autocracy to democracy.


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Democracies hardly ever fight each other.


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Of all the state against state wars


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fought since 1900, only a minority


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were fought between democracies.


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Two.


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Globalisation.


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War is just not as effective at achieving


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economic goals as it used to be.


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Today it's almost always cheaper


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to buy resources on the global market


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than to seize them by force.

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People from other nations are


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more valuable to us alive than dead.


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Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.


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Three.


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War is so 20th century.


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Until World War I, warfare was seen as an


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inevitable part of the human experience


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and as a valuable tool which you could use


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to achieve goals when diplomacy


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hit a brick wall.


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Today we have rules that declare acts of


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aggression illegal and stipulate that


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armed forces is only justified in


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self-defence or with the authority of the


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UN Security Council.


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These rules are still broken, but today

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it's harder to do so without sparking


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opposition and disapproval.

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Also, we have an international court for


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war crimes in the Hague,

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and that's a very recent innovation.


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Four.


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Borders are mostly fixed now.


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After World War II,


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territorial wars generally stopped


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when most countries pledged to accept


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international borders


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and respect other nations' autonomy.

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But is all of this just an anomaly,

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or are we on the road to lasting peace?


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Truth is,

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we don't know yet.


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We need a big enough sample to rule out

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the historical average, which is about


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one or two big wars per century.


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We just haven't had enough time since


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World War II to rule out the possibility


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that war is not going away.


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If we don't have one major war


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in the next 75 years,


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we can be really confident


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that humanity is changing.


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So, you see, war might be over.

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Yes, there are nasty conflicts

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going on in many places, but overall,

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things are getting better.


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And we can make them even better


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by speaking up for peace and democracy.