The other inconvenient truth
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0:01 - 0:03Tonight, I want to have a conversation about
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0:03 - 0:05this incredible global issue
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0:05 - 0:09that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment,
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0:09 - 0:11something we can all relate to,
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0:11 - 0:14and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.
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0:14 - 0:17But first, I want to take you on a little journey.
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0:17 - 0:20Let's first visit our planet, but at night,
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0:20 - 0:21and from space.
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0:21 - 0:24This is what our planet looks like from outer space
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0:24 - 0:26at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel
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0:26 - 0:29around the planet. And the thing you would notice first,
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0:29 - 0:32of course, is how dominant the human presence
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0:32 - 0:34on our planet is.
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0:34 - 0:37We see cities, we see oil fields,
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0:37 - 0:40you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea,
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0:40 - 0:43that we are dominating much of our planet,
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0:43 - 0:45and mostly through the use of energy
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0:45 - 0:46that we see here at night.
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0:46 - 0:49But let's go back and drop it a little deeper
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0:49 - 0:51and look during the daytime.
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0:51 - 0:54What we see during the day is our landscapes.
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0:54 - 0:58This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia
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0:58 - 1:02in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.
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1:02 - 1:04If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,
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1:04 - 1:07you're going to see a thin white line,
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1:07 - 1:10which is a road that was built in the 1970s.
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1:10 - 1:14If we come back to the same place in 2001,
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1:14 - 1:16what we're going to find is that these roads
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1:16 - 1:20spurt off more roads, and more roads after that,
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1:20 - 1:23at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest
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1:23 - 1:25where there are going to be a few cows.
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1:25 - 1:28These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows.
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1:28 - 1:31And these cows are eaten basically in South America,
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1:31 - 1:34in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here.
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1:34 - 1:37But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation
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1:37 - 1:39is something we notice a lot of around the tropics,
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1:39 - 1:41especially in this part of the world.
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1:41 - 1:45If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,
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1:45 - 1:47we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,
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1:47 - 1:51here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully,
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1:51 - 1:55there's a thin white line through that kind of seam,
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1:55 - 1:56and there's a lone farmer out there
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1:56 - 1:59in the middle of the primeval jungle.
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1:59 - 2:03Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003,
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2:03 - 2:06and we'll see that that landscape actually looks
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2:06 - 2:09a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest.
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2:09 - 2:12In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields.
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2:12 - 2:15These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China
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2:15 - 2:19as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare
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2:19 - 2:21about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals
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2:21 - 2:25animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease.
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2:25 - 2:27Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins.
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2:27 - 2:29So soybeans have really exploded,
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2:29 - 2:33showing how trade and globalization are
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2:33 - 2:36really responsible for the connections to rainforests
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2:36 - 2:38and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange
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2:38 - 2:40and interconnected world that we have today.
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2:40 - 2:43Well, again and again, what we find as we look
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2:43 - 2:45around the world in our little tour of the world
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2:45 - 2:49is that landscape after landscape after landscape
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2:49 - 2:51have been cleared and altered for growing food
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2:51 - 2:54and other crops.
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2:54 - 2:56So one of the questions we've been asking is,
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2:56 - 2:59how much of the world is used to grow food,
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2:59 - 3:01and where is it exactly, and how can we change that
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3:01 - 3:03into the future, and what does it mean?
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3:03 - 3:06Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale,
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3:06 - 3:09using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track
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3:09 - 3:11farming on a global scale.
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3:11 - 3:15And this is what we found, and it's startling.
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3:15 - 3:18This map shows the presence of agriculture
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3:18 - 3:20on planet Earth.
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3:20 - 3:23The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,
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3:23 - 3:26like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever.
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3:26 - 3:30That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land.
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3:30 - 3:33If you put it all together in one place,
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3:33 - 3:35it'd be the size of South America.
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3:35 - 3:38The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures
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3:38 - 3:40and rangelands, where our animals live.
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3:40 - 3:43That area's about 30 million square kilometers,
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3:43 - 3:45or about an Africa's worth of land,
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3:45 - 3:48a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course,
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3:48 - 3:50is what you see. And what's left is, like,
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3:50 - 3:52the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia,
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3:52 - 3:54or the middle of a rain forest.
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3:54 - 3:58We're using a planet's worth of land already.
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3:58 - 4:01If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent
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4:01 - 4:03of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture,
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4:03 - 4:06and it's 60 times larger
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4:06 - 4:08than all the areas we complain about,
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4:08 - 4:12our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.
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4:12 - 4:15Half of humanity lives in cities today,
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4:15 - 4:18but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food.
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4:18 - 4:20So this is an amazing kind of result,
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4:20 - 4:23and it really shocked us when we looked at that.
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4:23 - 4:25So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,
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4:25 - 4:28but also we're using a lot of water.
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4:28 - 4:30This is a photograph flying into Arizona,
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4:30 - 4:31and when you look at it, you're like,
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4:31 - 4:32"What are they growing here?" It turns out
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4:32 - 4:35they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert
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4:35 - 4:38using water sprayed on top.
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4:38 - 4:39Now, the irony is, it's probably sold
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4:39 - 4:42in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities.
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4:42 - 4:44But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come
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4:44 - 4:47from some place, and it comes from here,
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4:47 - 4:49the Colorado River in North America.
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4:49 - 4:52Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,
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4:52 - 4:54this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought,
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4:54 - 4:57kind of an average day, it looks something like this.
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4:57 - 5:00But if we come back today, during a normal condition
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5:00 - 5:04to the exact same location, this is what's left.
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5:04 - 5:07The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,
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5:07 - 5:10or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick.
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5:10 - 5:13Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water
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5:13 - 5:15and using it to grow food,
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5:15 - 5:18and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado,
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5:18 - 5:21it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean.
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5:21 - 5:24We've literally consumed an entire river in North America
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5:24 - 5:27for irrigation.
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5:27 - 5:28Well, that's not even the worst example in the world.
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5:28 - 5:31This probably is: the Aral Sea.
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5:31 - 5:34Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes.
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5:34 - 5:36This is in the former Soviet Union
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5:36 - 5:39in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
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5:39 - 5:41one of the great inland seas of the world.
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5:41 - 5:43But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like
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5:43 - 5:47it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here?
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5:47 - 5:49The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side,
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5:49 - 5:51you see two little rivers kind of coming down
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5:51 - 5:55through the sand, feeding this basin with water.
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5:55 - 5:58Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains
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5:58 - 6:00far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river
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6:00 - 6:04through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea.
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6:04 - 6:08Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water
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6:08 - 6:10to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not,
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6:10 - 6:14in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets
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6:14 - 6:16to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union.
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6:16 - 6:18They really needed the money.
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6:18 - 6:20Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off
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6:20 - 6:23the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen?
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6:23 - 6:25Here it is in 1973,
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6:25 - 6:271986,
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6:27 - 6:301999,
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6:30 - 6:332004,
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6:33 - 6:38and about 11 months ago.
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6:38 - 6:40It's pretty extraordinary.
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6:40 - 6:43Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.
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6:43 - 6:46Imagine that was Lake Superior.
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6:46 - 6:49Imagine that was Lake Huron.
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6:49 - 6:51It's an extraordinary change.
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6:51 - 6:53This is not only a change in water and
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6:53 - 6:55where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals
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6:55 - 6:58of the environment of this region.
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6:58 - 6:59Let's start with this.
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6:59 - 7:01The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club.
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7:01 - 7:03Let's put it that way.
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7:03 - 7:06So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty.
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7:06 - 7:08There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things
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7:08 - 7:10that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne.
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7:10 - 7:13One of those small islands that was remote
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7:13 - 7:14and impossible to get to was a site
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7:14 - 7:17of Soviet biological weapons testing.
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7:17 - 7:18You can walk there today.
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7:18 - 7:20Weather patterns have changed.
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7:20 - 7:23Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only
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7:23 - 7:26in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.
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7:26 - 7:29This is an environmental disaster writ large.
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7:29 - 7:30But let's bring it home.
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7:30 - 7:33This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago
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7:33 - 7:35that he took when he was in the Soviet Union
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7:35 - 7:36a long, long time ago,
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7:36 - 7:39showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.
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7:39 - 7:41You see the canal they dug?
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7:41 - 7:44They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into
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7:44 - 7:46the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up
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7:46 - 7:48because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't
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7:48 - 7:51keep up with the retreating shoreline.
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7:51 - 7:53I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future
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7:53 - 7:55archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about
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7:55 - 7:58our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?"
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7:58 - 8:01Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.
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8:01 - 8:04We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water
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8:04 - 8:06that's sustainable, and agriculture alone
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8:06 - 8:08is 70 percent of that.
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8:08 - 8:11So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture.
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8:11 - 8:15We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.
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8:15 - 8:17Usually when we think about the atmosphere,
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8:17 - 8:20we think about climate change and greenhouse gases,
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8:20 - 8:22and mostly around energy,
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8:22 - 8:24but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters
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8:24 - 8:27of greenhouse gases too.
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8:27 - 8:29If you look at carbon dioxide from
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8:29 - 8:31burning tropical rainforest,
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8:31 - 8:33or methane coming from cows and rice,
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8:33 - 8:36or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers,
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8:36 - 8:39it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse
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8:39 - 8:42gases going into the atmosphere from human activity.
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8:42 - 8:44That's more than all our transportation.
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8:44 - 8:46It's more than all our electricity.
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8:46 - 8:48It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact.
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8:48 - 8:51It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases
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8:51 - 8:54of any human activity in the world.
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8:54 - 8:56And yet, we don't talk about it very much.
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8:56 - 8:59So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture
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8:59 - 9:01dominating our planet,
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9:01 - 9:04whether it's 40 percent of our land surface,
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9:04 - 9:0670 percent of the water we use,
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9:06 - 9:0930 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions.
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9:09 - 9:12We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus
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9:12 - 9:14around the world simply by using fertilizers,
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9:14 - 9:17causing huge problems of water quality from rivers,
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9:17 - 9:19lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest
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9:19 - 9:22driver of biodiversity loss.
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9:22 - 9:24So without a doubt, agriculture is
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9:24 - 9:28the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet
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9:28 - 9:31since the end of the ice age. No question.
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9:31 - 9:34And it rivals climate change in importance.
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9:34 - 9:36And they're both happening at the same time.
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9:36 - 9:39But what's really important here to remember is that
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9:39 - 9:42it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing.
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9:42 - 9:44In fact, we completely depend on it.
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9:44 - 9:49It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity.
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9:49 - 9:51We have to provide food and feed and, yeah,
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9:51 - 9:55fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people
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9:55 - 9:57in the world today, and if anything,
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9:57 - 9:59we're going to have the demands on agriculture
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9:59 - 10:02increase into the future. It's not going to go away.
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10:02 - 10:04It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of
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10:04 - 10:07growing population. We're seven billion people today
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10:07 - 10:09heading towards at least nine,
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10:09 - 10:12probably nine and a half before we're done.
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10:12 - 10:15More importantly, changing diets.
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10:15 - 10:18As the world becomes wealthier as well as more populous,
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10:18 - 10:21we're seeing increases in dietary consumption of meat,
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10:21 - 10:24which take a lot more resources than a vegetarian diet does.
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10:24 - 10:28So more people, eating more stuff, and richer stuff,
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10:28 - 10:31and of course having an energy crisis at the same time,
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10:31 - 10:35where we have to replace oil with other energy sources
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10:35 - 10:37that will ultimately have to include some kinds of biofuels
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10:37 - 10:39and bio-energy sources.
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10:39 - 10:42So you put these together. It's really hard to see
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10:42 - 10:44how we're going to get to the rest of the century
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10:44 - 10:49without at least doubling global agricultural production.
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10:49 - 10:51Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to
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10:51 - 10:53double global ag production around the world?
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10:53 - 10:56Well, we could try to farm more land.
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10:56 - 10:59This is an analysis we've done, where on the left is where
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10:59 - 11:02the crops are today, on the right is where they could be
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11:02 - 11:05based on soils and climate, assuming climate change
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11:05 - 11:07doesn't disrupt too much of this,
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11:07 - 11:09which is not a good assumption.
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11:09 - 11:11We could farm more land, but the problem is
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11:11 - 11:14the remaining lands are in sensitive areas.
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11:14 - 11:16They have a lot of biodiversity, a lot of carbon,
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11:16 - 11:19things we want to protect.
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11:19 - 11:21So we could grow more food by expanding farmland,
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11:21 - 11:23but we'd better not,
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11:23 - 11:26because it's ecologically a very, very dangerous thing to do.
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11:26 - 11:29Instead, we maybe want to freeze the footprint
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11:29 - 11:33of agriculture and farm the lands we have better.
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11:33 - 11:35This is work that we're doing to try to highlight places
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11:35 - 11:38in the world where we could improve yields
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11:38 - 11:40without harming the environment.
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11:40 - 11:42The green areas here show where corn yields,
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11:42 - 11:44just showing corn as an example,
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11:44 - 11:47are already really high, probably the maximum you could
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11:47 - 11:50find on Earth today for that climate and soil,
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11:50 - 11:52but the brown areas and yellow areas are places where
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11:52 - 11:55we're only getting maybe 20 or 30 percent of the yield
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11:55 - 11:56you should be able to get.
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11:56 - 11:58You see a lot of this in Africa, even Latin America,
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11:58 - 12:01but interestingly, Eastern Europe, where Soviet Union
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12:01 - 12:03and Eastern Bloc countries used to be,
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12:03 - 12:06is still a mess agriculturally.
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12:06 - 12:08Now, this would require nutrients and water.
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12:08 - 12:10It's going to either be organic or conventional
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12:10 - 12:12or some mix of the two to deliver that.
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12:12 - 12:14Plants need water and nutrients.
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12:14 - 12:18But we can do this, and there are opportunities to make this work.
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12:18 - 12:20But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive
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12:20 - 12:23to meeting the food security needs of the future
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12:23 - 12:26and the environmental security needs of the future.
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12:26 - 12:29We have to figure out how to make this tradeoff between
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12:29 - 12:33growing food and having a healthy environment work better.
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12:33 - 12:35Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing proposition.
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12:35 - 12:37We can grow food in the background --
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12:37 - 12:38that's a soybean field —
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12:38 - 12:42and in this flower diagram, it shows we grow a lot of food,
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12:42 - 12:44but we don't have a lot clean water, we're not storing
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12:44 - 12:47a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity.
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12:47 - 12:49In the foreground, we have this prairie
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12:49 - 12:51that's wonderful from the environmental side,
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12:51 - 12:54but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat?
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12:54 - 12:56We need to figure out how to bring both of those together
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12:56 - 13:01into a new kind of agriculture that brings them all together.
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13:01 - 13:03Now, when I talk about this, people often tell me,
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13:03 - 13:06"Well, isn't blank the answer?" -- organic food,
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13:06 - 13:11local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies, new farm bills --
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13:11 - 13:14and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas here,
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13:14 - 13:17but not any one of these is a silver bullet.
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13:17 - 13:20In fact, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot.
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13:20 - 13:22And I love silver buckshot. You put it together
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13:22 - 13:24and you've got something really powerful,
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13:24 - 13:27but we need to put them together.
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13:27 - 13:29So what we have to do, I think, is invent a new kind
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13:29 - 13:32of agriculture that blends the best ideas
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13:32 - 13:35of commercial agriculture and the green revolution
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13:35 - 13:39with the best ideas of organic farming and local food
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13:39 - 13:42and the best ideas of environmental conservation,
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13:42 - 13:44not to have them fighting each other but to have them
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13:44 - 13:48collaborating together to form a new kind of agriculture,
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13:48 - 13:52something I call "terraculture," or farming for a whole planet.
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13:52 - 13:55Now, having this conversation has been really hard,
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13:55 - 13:57and we've been trying very hard to bring these key points
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13:57 - 14:00to people to reduce the controversy,
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14:00 - 14:01to increase the collaboration.
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14:01 - 14:04I want to show you a short video that does kind of show
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14:04 - 14:06our efforts right now to bring these sides together
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14:06 - 14:10into a single conversation. So let me show you that.
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14:10 - 14:13(Music)
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14:13 - 14:17("Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota: Driven to Discover")
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14:17 - 14:19(Music)
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14:19 - 14:20("The world population is growing
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14:20 - 14:23by 75 million people each year.
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14:23 - 14:26That's almost the size of Germany.
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14:26 - 14:29Today, we're nearing 7 billion people.
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14:29 - 14:31At this rate, we'll reach 9 billion people by 2040.
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14:31 - 14:33And we all need food.
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14:33 - 14:34But how?
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14:34 - 14:37How do we feed a growing world without destroying the planet?
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14:37 - 14:41We already know climate change is a big problem.
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14:41 - 14:42But it's not the only problem.
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14:42 - 14:45We need to face 'the other inconvenient truth.'
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14:45 - 14:47A global crisis in agriculture.
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14:47 - 14:54Population growth + meat consumption + dairy consumption + energy costs + bioenergy production = stress on natural resources.
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14:54 - 14:57More than 40% of Earth's land has been cleared for agriculture.
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14:57 - 14:59Global croplands cover 16 million km².
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14:59 - 15:02That's almost the size of South America.
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15:02 - 15:04Global pastures cover 30 million km².
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15:04 - 15:06That's the size of Africa.
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15:06 - 15:11Agriculture uses 60 times more land than urban and suburban areas combined.
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15:11 - 15:14Irrigation is the biggest use of water on the planet.
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15:14 - 15:19We use 2,800 cubic kilometers of water on crops every year.
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15:19 - 15:23That's enough to fill 7,305 Empire State Buildings every day.
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15:23 - 15:26Today, many large rivers have reduced flows.
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15:26 - 15:28Some dry up altogether.
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15:28 - 15:32Look at the Aral Sea, now turned to desert.
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15:32 - 15:35Or the Colorado River, which no longer flows to the ocean.
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15:35 - 15:39Fertilizers have more than doubled the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment.
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15:39 - 15:40The consequence?
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15:40 - 15:42Widespread water pollution
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15:42 - 15:45and massive degradation of lakes and rivers.
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15:45 - 15:49Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change.
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15:49 - 15:51It generates 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.
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15:51 - 15:54That's more than the emissions from all electricity and industry,
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15:54 - 15:57or from all the world's planes, trains and automobiles.
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15:57 - 15:59Most agricultural emissions come from tropical deforestation,
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15:59 - 16:01methane from animals and rice fields,
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16:01 - 16:03and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing.
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16:03 - 16:06There is nothing we do that transforms the world more than agriculture.
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16:06 - 16:09And there's nothing we do that is more crucial to our survival.
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16:09 - 16:11Here's the dilemma...
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16:11 - 16:15As the world grows by several billion more people,
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16:15 - 16:20We'll need to double, maybe even triple, global food production.
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16:20 - 16:21So where do we go from here?
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16:21 - 16:24We need a bigger conversation, an international dialogue.
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16:24 - 16:26We need to invest in real solutions:
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16:26 - 16:30incentives for farmers, precision agriculture, new crop varieties, drip irrigation,
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16:30 - 16:34gray water recycling, better tillage practices, smarter diets.
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16:34 - 16:36We need everyone at the table.
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16:36 - 16:38Advocates of commercial agriculture,
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16:38 - 16:39environmental conservation,
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16:39 - 16:41and organic farming...
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16:41 - 16:43must work together.
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16:43 - 16:44There is no single solution.
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16:44 - 16:46We need collaboration,
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16:46 - 16:47imagination,
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16:47 - 16:48determination,
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16:48 - 16:52because failure is not an option.
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16:52 - 16:55How do we feed the world without destroying it?
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16:55 - 16:58Yeah, so we face one of the greatest grand challenges
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16:58 - 17:00in all of human history today:
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17:00 - 17:03the need to feed nine billion people
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17:03 - 17:07and do so sustainably and equitably and justly,
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17:07 - 17:08at the same time protecting our planet
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17:08 - 17:11for this and future generations.
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17:11 - 17:13This is going to be one of the hardest things
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17:13 - 17:15we ever have done in human history,
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17:15 - 17:18and we absolutely have to get it right,
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17:18 - 17:22and we have to get it right on our first and only try.
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17:22 - 17:26So thanks very much. (Applause)
- Title:
- The other inconvenient truth
- Speaker:
- Jonathan Foley
- Description:
-
A skyrocketing demand for food means that agriculture has become the largest driver of climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental destruction. At TEDxTC Jonathan Foley shows why we desperately need to begin "terraculture" -- farming for the whole planet. (Filmed at TEDxTC.)
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 17:46
Thu-Huong Ha edited English subtitles for The other inconvenient truth | ||
Thu-Huong Ha approved English subtitles for The other inconvenient truth | ||
Thu-Huong Ha edited English subtitles for The other inconvenient truth | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for The other inconvenient truth | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The other inconvenient truth | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The other inconvenient truth |