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We need to build
a weather service for water,
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yet until we collectively
demand accountability,
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the incentives to fund it will not exist.
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The first time I spoke at a conference
was here at TED eight years ago.
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Fresh out of grad school,
little did I know
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that in those few minutes onstage
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I was framing the questions
I was going to be asked
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for the next decade.
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And, like too many 20-somethings,
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I expected to solve the world's problems,
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more specifically
the world's water problems,
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with my technology.
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I had a lot to learn.
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It was seductive,
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believing that our biggest
water quality problems persist
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because they're so hard to identify,
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and I presumed that we just needed
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simpler, faster,
and more affordable sensors.
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I was wrong.
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While it's true
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that managing tomorrow's water risk
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is going to require better data
and more technology,
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today we're barely using
the little water data that we have.
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Our biggest water problems persist
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because of what we don't do,
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and the problems we fail to acknowledge.
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There's actually little question
about what today's water data
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is telling us to do as a species.
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We need to conserve more
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and we need to pollute less.
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But today's data is not going
to help us forecast the emerging risks
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facing businesses and markets.
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It's rapidly becoming useless for that.
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It used to carry more value,
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but it's never actually told us
with any real accuracy
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how much water we have or what's in it.
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Let's consider the past decade
of water usage statistics
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from each of the G20 nations.
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Now what these numbers do not tell you
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is that none of these countries
directly measures how much water they use.
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These are all estimates,
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and they're based on outdated models
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that don't consider the climate crisis,
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nor do they consider its impact on water.
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In 2015, Chennai,
India's sixth-largest city,
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was hit with the worst floods
it had seen in a century.
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Today, its water reservoirs
are nearly dry.
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It took three years to get here,
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three years of sub-average rainfall.
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Now, that's faster than most nations
tabulate their national water data,
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including the US,
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and although there were forecasts
that predicted severe shortages
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of water in Chennai,
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none of them could actually
help us pinpoint
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exactly when or where
this was going to happen.
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This is a new type of water problem,
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because the rate at which
every aspect of our water cycle changes
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is accelerating.
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As a recent UN warning
this month revealed,
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we are now facing one new
climate emergency every single week.
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There are greater uncertainties
ahead for water quality.
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It's rare in most countries
for most water bodies
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to be tested for more than
a handful of contaminants in a year.
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Instead of testing, we use
what's called the dilution model
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to manage pollution.
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Now imagine I took
an Olympic-sized swimming pool,
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I filled it with fresh water,
and I added one drop of mercury.
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That would dilute down
to one part per billion mercury,
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which is well within what
the World Health Organization
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considers safe.
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But if there was any unforeseen drop
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in how much water was available --
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less groundwater,
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less stream flow,
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less water in the pool --
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less dilution would take place
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and things would get more toxic.
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So this is how most countries
are managing pollution.
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They use this model to tell them
how much pollution is safe,
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and it has clear weaknesses,
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but it worked well enough
when we had abundant water
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and consistent weather patterns.
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Now that we don't, we're going
to need to invest and develop
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new data collection strategies.
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But before we do that, we have to start
acting on the data we already have.
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This is a jet fuel fire.
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As many of you may be aware,
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jet fuel emissions play
an enormous role in climate change.
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What you might not be aware of
is that the US Department of Defense
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is the world's largest
consumer of jet fuel,
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and when they consume jet fuel,
they mandate the use
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of the firefighting foam pictured here,
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which contains a class
of chemicals called PFAS.
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Nobody uses more of this foam
than the US Department of Defense,
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and every time it's used, PFAS
finds its way into our water systems.
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Globally, militaries have been using
this foam since the 1970s.
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We know PFAS causes cancer, birth defects,
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and it's now so pervasive
in the environment
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that we seem to find it in nearly
every living thing we test,
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including us.
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But so far, the US Department of Defense
has not been held accountable
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for PFAS contamination,
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nor has it been held liable,
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and although there's an effort underway
to phase out these firefighting foams,
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they're not embracing safer,
effective alternatives.
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They're actually using
other PFAS molecules,
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which may for all we know
carry worse health consequences.
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So today, government accountability
is eroding to the point of elimination,
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and the risk of liability
from water pollution is vanishing.
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What types of incentives does this create
for investing in our water future?
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Over the past decade, the average
early stage global investment
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in early stage water technology companies
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has totaled less than
30 million dollars every year.
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That's 0.12 percent of global
venture capital for early stage companies.
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And public spending is not going up
nearly fast enough,
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and a closer look at it reveals
water is not a priority.
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In 2014, the US Federal Government
was spending 11 dollars per citizen
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on water infrastructure
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versus 251 dollars on IT infrastructure.
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So when we don't use the data we have,
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we don't encourage investment
in new technologies,
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we don't encourage more data collection,
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and we certainly don't encourage
investment in securing a water future.
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So are we doomed?
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Part of what I'm still learning
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is how to balance the doom
and the urgency with things we can do,
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because Greta Thunberg
and the Extinction Rebellion
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don't want our hope, they want us to act.
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So what can we do?
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It's hard to imagine life
without a weather service,
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but before modern weather forecasting,
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we had no commercial air travel,
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it was common for ships
to be lost at sea,
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and a single storm could produce
a food shortage.
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Once we had radio and telegraph networks,
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all that was necessary
to solve these problems
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was tracking the movement of storms.
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And that laid the foundation
for a global data collection effort,
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one that every household
and every business depends upon today.
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And this was as much
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the result of coordinated
and consistent data collection
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as it was the result of producing
a culture that saw greater value
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in openly assessing and sharing
everything that it could find out
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and discover about the risks we face.
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A global weather service for water
would help us forecast water shortages.
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It could help us implement rationing
well before reservoirs run dry.
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It could help us attack
contamination before it spreads.
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It could protect our supply chains,
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secure our food supplies,
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and, perhaps most importantly,
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it would enable
the precise estimation of risk
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necessary to ensure against it.
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We know we can do this because
we've already done it with weather,
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but it's going to require resources.
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We need to encourage
greater investment in water.
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Investors, venture capitalists,
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a portion of your funds and portfolios
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should be dedicated to water.
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Nothing is more valuable,
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and after all, businesses are going
to need to understand water risks
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in order to remain competitive
in the world we are entering.
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Aside from venture capital,
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there are also lots of promising
government programs
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that encourage economic development
through tax incentives.
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A new option in the US
that my company is using
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is called opportunity zones.
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They offer favorable tax treatment
for investing capital gains
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in designated distressed
and low-income areas.
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Now, these are areas
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that are also facing
staggering water risk,
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so this creates crucial incentives
to work directly with the communities
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who need help most.
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And if you're not looking
to make this type of investment
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but you own land in the US,
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did you know that
you can leverage your land
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to conserve water quality permanently
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with a conservation easement?
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You can assign the perpetual right
to a local land trust
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to conserve your land
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and set specific water quality goals,
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and if you meet those goals,
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you can be rewarded with
a substantial tax discount every year.
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How many areas could
our global community protect
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through these and other programs?
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They're powerful because they offer
the access to real property
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necessary to lay the foundation
for a global weather service for water.
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But this can only work
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if we use these programs
as they are intended
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and not as mere vehicles for tax evasion.
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When the conservation easement
was established,
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nobody could anticipate how ingrained
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in environmental movements
corporate polluters would become,
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and we've become accustomed to companies
talking about the climate crisis
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while doing nothing about it.
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This has undermined the legacy
and the impact of these programs,
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but it also makes them
ripe for reclamation.
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Why not use conservation easements
as they were intended,
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to set and reach
ambitious conservation goals?
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Why not create opportunities
in opportunity zones?
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Because fundamentally,
water security requires accountability.
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Accountability is not corporate polluters
sponsoring environmental groups
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and museums.
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Those are conflicts of interest.
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(Applause)
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Accountability is making
the risk of liability too expensive
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to continue polluting
and wasting our water.
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We can't keep settling for words.
It's time to act.
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And where better to start
than with our biggest polluters?
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Particularly the US Department of Defense,
which is taxpayer-funded.
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Who and what are protecting
when US soldiers, their families,
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and the people who live
near US military bases abroad
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are all drinking toxic water?
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Global security can no longer remain
at odds with protecting our planet
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or our collective health.
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Our survival depends on it.
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Similarly,
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agriculture in most countries
depends on taxpayer-funded subsidies
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that are paid to farmers to secure
and stabilize food supplies.
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These incentives are
a crucial leverage point for us,
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because agriculture is responsible
for consuming 70 percent
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of all the water we use every year.
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Fertilizer and pesticide runoff
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are the two biggest sources
of water pollution.
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Let's restructure these subsidies
to demand better water efficiency
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and less pollution.
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(Applause)
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Finally, we can't expect progress
if we're unwilling to confront
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the conflicts of interest
that suppress science,
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that undermine innovation,
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and discourage transparency.
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It is in the public interest to measure
and to share everything we can learn
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and discover about
the risks we face in water.
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Reality does not exist
until it's measured.
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It doesn't just take
technology to measure it,
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it takes our collective will.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)