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We need to build
a weather service for water,

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yet until we collectively
demand accountability,

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the incentives to fund it will not exist.

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The first time I spoke at a conference
was here at TED eight years ago.

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Fresh out of grad school,
little did I know

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that in those few minutes onstage

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I was framing the questions
I was going to be asked

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for the next decade.

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And, like too many 20-somethings,

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I expected to solve the world's problems,

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more specifically
the world's water problems,

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with my technology.

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I had a lot to learn.

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It was seductive,

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believing that our biggest
water quality problems persist

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because they're so hard to identify,

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and I presumed that we just needed

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simpler, faster,
and more affordable sensors.

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I was wrong.

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While it's true

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that managing tomorrow's water risk

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is going to require better data
and more technology,

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today we're barely using
the little water data that we have.

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Our biggest water problems persist

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because of what we don't do,

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and the problems we fail to acknowledge.

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There's actually little question
about what today's water data

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is telling us to do as a species.

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We need to conserve more

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and we need to pollute less.

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But today's data is not going
to help us forecast the emerging risks

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facing businesses and markets.

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It's rapidly becoming useless for that.

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It used to carry more value,

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but it's never actually told us
with any real accuracy

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how much water we have or what's in it.

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Let's consider the past decade
of water usage statistics

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from each of the G20 nations.

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Now what these numbers do not tell you

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is that none of these countries
directly measures how much water they use.

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These are all estimates,

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and they're based on outdated models

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that don't consider the climate crisis,

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nor do they consider its impact on water.

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In 2015, Chennai,
India's sixth-largest city,

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was hit with the worst floods
it had seen in a century.

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Today, its water reservoirs
are nearly dry.

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It took three years to get here,

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three years of sub-average rainfall.

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Now, that's faster than most nations
tabulate their national water data,

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including the US,

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and although there were forecasts
that predicted severe shortages

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of water in Chennai,

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none of them could actually
help us pinpoint

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exactly when or where
this was going to happen.

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This is a new type of water problem,

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because the rate at which
every aspect of our water cycle changes

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is accelerating.

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As a recent UN warning
this month revealed,

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we are now facing one new
climate emergency every single week.

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There are greater uncertainties
ahead for water quality.

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It's rare in most countries
for most water bodies

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to be tested for more than
a handful of contaminants in a year.

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Instead of testing, we use
what's called the dilution model

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to manage pollution.

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Now imagine I took
an Olympic-sized swimming pool,

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I filled it with fresh water,
and I added one drop of mercury.

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That would dilute down
to one part per billion mercury,

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which is well within what
the World Health Organization

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considers safe.

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But if there was any unforeseen drop

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in how much water was available --

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less groundwater,

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less stream flow,

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less water in the pool --

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less dilution would take place

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and things would get more toxic.

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So this is how most countries
are managing pollution.

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They use this model to tell them
how much pollution is safe,

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and it has clear weaknesses,

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but it worked well enough
when we had abundant water

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and consistent weather patterns.

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Now that we don't, we're going
to need to invest and develop

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new data collection strategies.

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But before we do that, we have to start
acting on the data we already have.

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This is a jet fuel fire.

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As many of you may be aware,

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jet fuel emissions play
an enormous role in climate change.

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What you might not be aware of
is that the US Department of Defense

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is the world's largest
consumer of jet fuel,

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and when they consume jet fuel,
they mandate the use

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of the firefighting foam pictured here,

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which contains a class
of chemicals called PFAS.

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Nobody uses more of this foam
than the US Department of Defense,

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and every time it's used, PFAS
finds its way into our water systems.

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Globally, militaries have been using
this foam since the 1970s.

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We know PFAS causes cancer, birth defects,

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and it's now so pervasive
in the environment

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that we seem to find it in nearly
every living thing we test,

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including us.

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But so far, the US Department of Defense
has not been held accountable

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for PFAS contamination,

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nor has it been held liable,

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and although there's an effort underway
to phase out these firefighting foams,

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they're not embracing safer,
effective alternatives.

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They're actually using
other PFAS molecules,

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which may for all we know
carry worse health consequences.

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So today, government accountability
is eroding to the point of elimination,

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and the risk of liability
from water pollution is vanishing.

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What types of incentives does this create
for investing in our water future?

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Over the past decade, the average
early stage global investment

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in early stage water technology companies

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has totaled less than
30 million dollars every year.

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That's 0.12 percent of global
venture capital for early stage companies.

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And public spending is not going up
nearly fast enough,

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and a closer look at it reveals
water is not a priority.

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In 2014, the US Federal Government
was spending 11 dollars per citizen

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on water infrastructure

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versus 251 dollars on IT infrastructure.

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So when we don't use the data we have,

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we don't encourage investment
in new technologies,

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we don't encourage more data collection,

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and we certainly don't encourage
investment in securing a water future.

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So are we doomed?

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Part of what I'm still learning

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is how to balance the doom
and the urgency with things we can do,

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because Greta Thunberg
and the Extinction Rebellion

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don't want our hope, they want us to act.

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So what can we do?

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It's hard to imagine life
without a weather service,

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but before modern weather forecasting,

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we had no commercial air travel,

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it was common for ships
to be lost at sea,

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and a single storm could produce
a food shortage.

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Once we had radio and telegraph networks,

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all that was necessary
to solve these problems

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was tracking the movement of storms.

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And that laid the foundation
for a global data collection effort,

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one that every household
and every business depends upon today.

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And this was as much

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the result of coordinated
and consistent data collection

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as it was the result of producing
a culture that saw greater value

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in openly assessing and sharing
everything that it could find out

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and discover about the risks we face.

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A global weather service for water
would help us forecast water shortages.

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It could help us implement rationing
well before reservoirs run dry.

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It could help us attack
contamination before it spreads.

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It could protect our supply chains,

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secure our food supplies,

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and, perhaps most importantly,

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it would enable
the precise estimation of risk

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necessary to ensure against it.

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We know we can do this because
we've already done it with weather,

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but it's going to require resources.

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We need to encourage
greater investment in water.

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Investors, venture capitalists,

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a portion of your funds and portfolios

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should be dedicated to water.

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Nothing is more valuable,

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and after all, businesses are going
to need to understand water risks

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in order to remain competitive
in the world we are entering.

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Aside from venture capital,

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there are also lots of promising
government programs

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that encourage economic development
through tax incentives.

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A new option in the US
that my company is using

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is called opportunity zones.

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They offer favorable tax treatment
for investing capital gains

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in designated distressed
and low-income areas.

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Now, these are areas

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that are also facing
staggering water risk,

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so this creates crucial incentives
to work directly with the communities

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who need help most.

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And if you're not looking
to make this type of investment

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but you own land in the US,

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did you know that
you can leverage your land

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to conserve water quality permanently

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with a conservation easement?

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You can assign the perpetual right
to a local land trust

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to conserve your land

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and set specific water quality goals,

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and if you meet those goals,

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you can be rewarded with
a substantial tax discount every year.

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How many areas could
our global community protect

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through these and other programs?

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They're powerful because they offer
the access to real property

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necessary to lay the foundation
for a global weather service for water.

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But this can only work

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if we use these programs
as they are intended

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and not as mere vehicles for tax evasion.

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When the conservation easement
was established,

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nobody could anticipate how ingrained

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in environmental movements
corporate polluters would become,

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and we've become accustomed to companies
talking about the climate crisis

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while doing nothing about it.

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This has undermined the legacy
and the impact of these programs,

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but it also makes them
ripe for reclamation.

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Why not use conservation easements
as they were intended,

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to set and reach
ambitious conservation goals?

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Why not create opportunities
in opportunity zones?

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Because fundamentally,
water security requires accountability.

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Accountability is not corporate polluters
sponsoring environmental groups

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and museums.

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Those are conflicts of interest.

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(Applause)

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Accountability is making
the risk of liability too expensive

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to continue polluting
and wasting our water.

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We can't keep settling for words.
It's time to act.

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And where better to start
than with our biggest polluters?

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Particularly the US Department of Defense,
which is taxpayer-funded.

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Who and what are protecting
when US soldiers, their families,

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and the people who live
near US military bases abroad

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are all drinking toxic water?

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Global security can no longer remain
at odds with protecting our planet

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or our collective health.

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Our survival depends on it.

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Similarly,

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agriculture in most countries
depends on taxpayer-funded subsidies

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that are paid to farmers to secure
and stabilize food supplies.

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These incentives are
a crucial leverage point for us,

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because agriculture is responsible
for consuming 70 percent

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of all the water we use every year.

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Fertilizer and pesticide runoff

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are the two biggest sources
of water pollution.

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Let's restructure these subsidies
to demand better water efficiency

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and less pollution.

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(Applause)

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Finally, we can't expect progress
if we're unwilling to confront

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the conflicts of interest
that suppress science,

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that undermine innovation,

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and discourage transparency.

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It is in the public interest to measure
and to share everything we can learn

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and discover about
the risks we face in water.

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Reality does not exist
until it's measured.

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It doesn't just take
technology to measure it,

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it takes our collective will.

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Thank you.

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(Applause)