-
Chris Anderson: Al, welcome.
-
So look, just six months ago,
-
it seems a lifetime ago,
but it really was just six months ago,
-
climate seemed to be on the lips
of every thinking person on the planet.
-
Recent events seem to have swept it
all away from our attention.
-
How worried are you about that?
-
Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris,
thank you so much for inviting me
-
to have this conversation.
-
People are reacting differently
-
to the climate crisis
-
in the midst of these
other great challenges
-
that have taken over our awareness,
-
appropriately.
-
One reason is something
that you mentioned.
-
People get the fact that when scientists
-
are warning us
-
in ever more dire terms
-
and setting their hair
on fire, so to speak,
-
it's best to listen
to what they're saying,
-
and I think that lesson
has begun to sink in in a new way.
-
Another similarity, by the way,
-
is that the climate crisis,
-
like the COVID-19 pandemic,
-
has revealed in a new way
-
the shocking injustices and inequalities
-
and disparities that affect
communities of color
-
and low-income communities.
-
There are differences.
-
The climate crisis has effects
that are not measured in years,
-
as the pandemic is,
-
but consequences that are measured
in centuries and even longer.
-
And the other difference
-
is that instead of depressing
economic activity
-
to deal with the climate crisis,
-
as nations around the world
have had to do with COVID-19,
-
we have the opportunity to create
tens of millions of new jobs.
-
That sounds like a political phrasing,
-
but it's literally true.
-
For the last five years,
-
the fastest-growing job in the US
has been solar installer.
-
The second fastest has been
wind turbine technician.
-
And the Oxford Review of Economics
-
just a few weeks ago
-
pointed the way to
a very jobs-rich recovery
-
if we emphasize renewable energy
and sustainability technology.
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So I think we are
crossing a tipping point,
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and you need only look
at the recovery plans
-
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that are being presented
in nations around the world
-
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to see that they're very much
focused on a green recovery.
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CA: I mean, one obvious impact
of the pandemic
-
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is that it's brought the world's economy
to a shuddering halt,
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thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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I mean, how big an effect has that been,
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and is it unambiguously good news?
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AG: Well, it's a little bit
of an illusion, Chris,
-
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and you need only look back
to the Great Recession in 2008 and '9,
-
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where there was a one percent
decline in emissions,
-
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but then in 2010
-
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they came roaring back during the recovery
-
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with a four percent increase.
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The latest estimates are that emissions
will go down by at least five percent
-
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during this induced coma,
-
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as the economist Paul Krugman
perceptively described it,
-
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but whether it goes back the way it did
after the Great Recession
-
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is in part up to us,
-
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and if these green recovery plans
are actually implemented,
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and I know many countries
are determined to implement them,
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then we need not repeat that pattern.
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After all, this whole process is occurring
-
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during a period when the cost
of renewable energy and electric vehicles,
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batteries, and a range of other
sustainability approaches
-
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are continuing to fall in price,
-
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and they're becoming
much more competitive.
-
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Just a quick reference
to how fast this is:
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five years ago, electricity
from solar and wind
-
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was cheaper than electricity
from fossil fuels
-
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in only one percent of the world.
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This year, it's cheaper
in two thirds of the world,
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and five years from now
-
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it will be cheaper in virtually
100 percent of the world.
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EVs will be cost-competitive
within two years,
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and then will continue falling in price.
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And so there are changes underway
-
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that could interrupt the pattern
we saw after the Great Recession.
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CA: The reason those pricing differentials
happen in different parts of the world
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is obviously just because
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there's different amounts
of sunshine and wind there
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and different building costs and so forth.
-
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AG: Well, yes, and government policies
also count for a lot.
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The world is continuing
to subsidize fossil fuels
-
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at a ridiculous amount,
-
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moreso may developing countries
than in the US and developed countries,
-
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but it's subsidized here as well.
-
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But everywhere in the world,
-
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wind and solar will be cheaper
as a source of electricity
-
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than fossil fuels within a few years.
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CA: I think I've heard it said
that the fall in emissions
-
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caused the pandemic
-
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isn't that much more
-
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than the fall that we will need
every single year
-
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if we're to meet emissions targets.
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Is that true, and, if so,
-
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doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?
-
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AG: It does seem daunting,
but first look at the number.
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That number came from a study
a little over a year ago
-
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released by the IPCC
-
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as to what it would take
-
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to keep the Earth's temperatures
-
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from increasing more than
1.5 degrees Celsius.
-
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And yes, the annual reductions
would be significant,
-
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on the order of what we've seen
with the pandemic.
-
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And yes, that does seem daunting.
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However, we do have the opportunity
to make some fairly dramatic changes,
-
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and the plan is not a mystery.
-
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You start with the two sectors that are
closest to an effective transition --
-
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electricity generation, as I mentioned,
-
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and last year, 2019,
-
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if you look at all of the new
electricity generation built
-
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all around the world,
-
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72 percent of it was from solar and wind.
-
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And already, without the continuing
subsidies for fossil fuels,
-
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we would see many more of these plants
-
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being shut down.
-
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There are some new
fossil plants being built,
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but many more are being shut down.
-
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And where transportation is concerned,
-
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the second sector ready to go,
-
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in addition to the cheaper prices
for EVs that I made reference to before,
-
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there are some 45 jurisdictions
around the world --
-
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national, regional, and municipal --
-
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where laws have been passed
beginning a phaseout
-
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of internal combustion engines.
-
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Even India said that by 2030,
less than 10 years from now,
-
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it will be illegal to sell
any new internal combustion engines
-
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in India.
-
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There are many other examples.
-
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So the past small reductions
-
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may not be an accurate guide
-
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to the kind we can achieve
-
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with serious national plans
-
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and a focused global effort.
-
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CA: So help us understand
just the big picture here, Al.
-
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I think before the pandemic,
-
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the world was emitting
-
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about 55 gigatons of what
they call CO2 equivalent,
-
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so that includes other greenhouse gases
-
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like methane dialed up
to be the equivalent of CO2.
-
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And am I right in saying that the IPCC,
-
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which is the global
organization of scientists,
-
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is recommending that
the only way to fix this crisis
-
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is to get that number from 55 to zero
-
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by 2050 at the very latest,
-
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and that even then that there's a chance
that we will end up with temperature rises
-
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more like two degrees Celsius
rather than 1.5.
-
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I mean, is that approximately
the big picture
-
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of what the IPCC is recommending?
-
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AG: That's correct.
-
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The global goal established
in the Paris Conference
-
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is to get to net zero on a global basis
-
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by 2050,
-
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and many people quickly add
-
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that that really means a 45
to 50 percent reduction by 2030
-
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to make that pathway
-
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to net zero feasible.
-
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CA: And that kind of timeline
is the kind of timeline
-
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where people can't even imagine.
-
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It's just hard to think
of policy over 30 years.
-
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So that's actually a very good shorthand,
-
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that humanity's task is to cut
emissions in half by 2030,
-
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approximately speaking,
-
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which I think boils down to
-
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about a seven or eight percent
reduction a year, something like that,
-
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if I'm not wrong.
-
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AG: Not quite. Not quite that large,
-
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but close, yes.
-
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CA: So it is something like the effect
that we've experienced this year
-
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maybe be necessary.
-
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This year we've done it
by basically shutting down the economy.
-
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You're talking about a way of doing it
over the coming years
-
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that actually gives some
economic growth and new jobs.
-
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So talk more about that.
-
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You've referred to
changing our energy sources,
-
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changing how we transport.
-
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If we did those things,
-
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how much of the problem does that solve?
-
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AG: Well, we can get to,
-
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well, in addition to doing
the two sectors that I mentioned,
-
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we also have to deal with manufacturing
and all the use cases
-
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that require temperatures
to a thousand degrees Celsius,
-
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and there are solutions there as well.
-
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I'll come back and mention an exciting one
that Germany has just embarked upon.
-
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We also have to tackle
regenerative agriculture.
-
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There is the opportunity
-
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to sequester a great deal of carbon
-
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in topsoils around the world
-
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by changing the agricultural techniques.
-
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There is a farmer-led movement to do that.
-
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We need to also retrofit buildings.
-
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We need to change our management
of forests and the ocean.
-
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But let me just mention
two things briefly.
-
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First of all, the high
temperature use cases.
-
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Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,
-
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with the leadership of
her Minister Peter Altmaier,
-
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who is a good friend
and a great public servant,
-
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have just embarked on
a green hydrogen strategy
-
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to make hydrogen
-
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with zero marginal cost renewable energy.
-
Not Synced
And just a word on that, Chris,
-
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you've heard about the intermittency
of wind and solar.
-
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Solar doesn't produce electricity
when the sun's not shining
-
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and wind doesn't
when the wind's not blowing.
-
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But batteries are getting better,
-
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and these technologies are becoming
much more efficient and powerful,
-
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so that for an increasing
number of hours of each day,
-
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they're producing often way more
electricity than can be used.
-
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So what to do with it?
-
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The marginal cost for
the next kilowatt-hour is zero.
-
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So all of a sudden,
-
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the very energy-intensive process
of cracking hydrogen from water
-
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becomes economically feasible,
-
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and it can be substituted
-
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for coal and gas,
-
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and that's already being done.
-
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There's a Swedish company
already making steel
-
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with green hydrogen,
-
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and as I say Germany has just embarked
on a major new initiative to do that.
-
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I think they're pointing the way
for the rest of the world.
-
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Now, where building retrofits
are concerned, just a moment on this,
-
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because about 20 to 25 percent
of the global warming pollution
-
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in the world and in the US
-
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comes from inefficient buildings
-
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that were constructed
-
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by companies and individuals
-
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who were trying to be competitive
in the marketplace
-
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and keep their margins acceptably high
-
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and thereby skimping on insulation
and the right windows
-
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and LEDs and the rest.
-
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And yet the person or company
that buys that building
-
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or leases that building,
-
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they want their monthly
utility bills much lower.
-
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So there are now ways
-
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to close that so-called
agent-principal divide,
-
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the differing incentives
for the building and occupier,
-
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and we can retrofit buildings with
a program that literally pays for itself
-
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over three to five years,
-
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and we could put tens of millions
of people to work
-
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in jobs that by definition
cannot be outsourced
-
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because they exist
in every single community.
-
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And we really ought to get serious
about doing this,
-
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because we're going to need all those jobs
-
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to get sustainable prosperity
in the aftermath of this pandemic.
-
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CA: Just coming back
to the hydrogen economy
-
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that you referred to there,
-
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when some people hear that,
-
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they think, oh, are you talking
about hydrogen-fueled cars?
-
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And they've heard that that
probably won't be a winning strategy.
-
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But you're thinking much more
broadly than that, I think,
-
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that it's not just hydrogen
as a kind of storage mechanism
-
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to act as a buffer for renewable energy,
-
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but also hydrogen could be essential
-
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for some of the other processes
in the economy like making steel,
-
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making cement
-
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that are fundamentally
carbon-intensive processes right now
-
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but could be transformed if we had
much cheaper sources of hydrogen.
-
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Is that right?
-
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AG: Yes, I was always skeptical
about hydrogen, Chris,
-
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principally because it's been so expensive
-
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to make it,
-
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to crack it out of water, as they say.
-
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But the game-changer has been
the incredible abundance
-
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of solar and wind electricity
in volumes and amounts
-
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that people didn't expect,
-
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and all of a sudden
it's cheap enough to use
-
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for these very energy-intensive processes
-
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like creating green hydrogen.
-
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I'm still a bit skeptical
about using it in vehicles.
-
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Toyota's been betting on that for 25 years
and hasn't really worked for them.
-
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Never say never, maybe it will,
-
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but I think it's most useful for these
high-temperature industrial processes,
-
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and we already have a pathway
for decarbonizing transportation
-
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with electricity
-
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that's working extremely well.
-
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Tesla's going to be soon the most valuable
automobile company in the world,
-
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already in the US,
-
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and they're about to overtake Toyota.
-
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There is now a semi truck company
-
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that's been stood up by Tesla
-
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and another that is going to be a hybrid
with electricity and green hydrogen,
-
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so we'll see whether or not
they can make it work in that application.
-
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But I think electricity
is preferable for cars and trucks.
-
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CA: We're coming to some
community questions in a minute.
-
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Let me ask you, though, about nuclear.
-
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Some environmentalists
believe that nuclear,
-
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or maybe new generation nuclear power
-
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is an essential part of the equation
-
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if we're to get to a truly clean future,
-
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a clean energy future.
-
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Are you still pretty skeptical
on nuclear, Al?
-
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AG: Well, the market's skeptical
about it, Chris.
-
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It's been a crushing disappointment
for me and for so many.
-
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I used to represent Oak Ridge,
where nuclear energy began,
-
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and when I was a young congressman
-
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I was a booster.
-
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I was very enthusiastic about it.
-
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But the cost overruns
-
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and the problems in building these plants
-
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have become so severe
-
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that utilities just don't have
an appetite for them.
-
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It's become the most expensive
source of electricity.
-
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Now, let me hasten to add
that there are some older nuclear reactors
-
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that have more useful time
that could be added on to their lifetimes,
-
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and like a lot of environmentalists
I've come to the view
-
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that if they can be determined to be safe,
-
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they should be allowed to continue
operating for a time.
-
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But where new nuclear
power plants are concerned,
-
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here's a way to look at it.
-
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If you are -- you've been a CEO, Chris.
-
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If you were the CEO of --
I guess you still are.
-
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If you were the CEO
of an electric utility,
-
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and you told your executive team,
-
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"I want to build a nuclear power plant,"
-
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two of the first questions
you would ask are, number one,
-
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how much will it cost?
-
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And there's not a single
engineering consulting firm
-
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that I've been able to find
anywhere in the world
-
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that will put their name on an opinion
-
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giving you a cost estimate.
-
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They just don't know.
-
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A second question you would ask is,
how long will it take to build it
-
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so we can start selling the electricity?
-
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And again the answer you will get is,
-
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we have no idea.
-
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So if you don't know
how much it's going to cost,
-
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and you don't know
when it's going to be finished,
-
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and you already know that
the electricity is more expensive
-
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than the alternate ways to produce it,
-
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that's going to be a little discouraging,
-
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and in fact that's been the case
for utilities around the world.
-
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CA: OK.
-
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So there's definitely
an interesting debate there,
-
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but we're going to come on
to some community questions.
-
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Let's have the first
of those questions up please.
-
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From Prosanta Chakrbarty:
-
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"People who are skeptical
of COVID and of climate change
-
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seem to be skeptical
of science in general.
-
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It may be that the singular
message from scientists
-
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gets diluted and convoluted.
-
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How do we fix that?
-
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AG: Yeah, that's
a great question, Prosanta.
-
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Boy, I'm trying to put this
succinctly and shortly.
-
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I think that there has been
-
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a feeling that experts in general
-
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have kind of let the US down,
-
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and that feeling is much more pronounced
in the US than in most other countries.
-
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And I think that considered opinion
-
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of what we call experts
-
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has been diluted over the last few decades
-
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by the unhealthy dominance
of big money in our political system
-
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which has found ways
to really twist economic policy
-
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to benefit elites,
-
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and this sounds a little radical
-
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but it's actually what has happened.
-
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And we have gone for more than 40 years
-
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without any meaningful increase
in middle income pay,
-
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and where the injustice experienced
by African Americans
-
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and other communities
of color are concerned,
-
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the differential in pay between
African Americans and majority Americans
-
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is the same as it was in 1968,
-
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and the family wealth,
-
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the net worth,
-
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it takes 11 and a half so-called
"typical" African American families
-
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to make up the net worth of one
so-called "typical" White American family.
-
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And you look at the soaring incomes
-
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in the top one
-
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or the top one tenth of one percent,
-
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and people say, "Wait a minute.
-
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Whoever the experts were
that designed these policies,
-
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they haven't been doing
a good job for me."
-
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A final point, Chris,
-
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there has been an assault on reason.
-
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There has been a war against truth.
-
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There has been a strategy,
-
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maybe it was best known as a strategy
decades ago by the tobacco companies
-
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who hired actors and dressed them up
as doctors to falsely reassure people
-
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that there were no health consequences
-
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from smoking cigarettes,
-
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and a hundred million people
died as a result.
-
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That same strategy of diminishing
the significance of truth,
-
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diminishing, as someone said,
the authority of knowledge,
-
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I think that has made it open season
-
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on any inconvenient truth --
-
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forgive another buzz phrase --
-
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but it is apt.
-
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We cannot abandon our devotion
to the best available evidence
-
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tested in reasoned discourse
-
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and used as the basis
-
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for the best policies we can form.
-
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CA: Is it possible, Al,
that one consequence of the pandemic
-
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is actually a growing number of people
-
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have revisited their opinions
-
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on scientists?
-
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I mean, you've had a chance
in the last few months to say,
-
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do I trust my political leader
or do I trust this scientist
-
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in terms of what they're saying
-
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about this virus.
-
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Maybe lessons from that
could be carried forward?
-
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AG: Well, you know, I think
if the polling is accurate,
-
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people do trust their doctors
a lot more than some of the politicians
-
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who seem to have a vested interest
in pretending the pandemic isn't real.
-
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And if you look at the incredible bust
-
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at President Trump's rally in Tulsa,
-
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a stadium of 19,000 people
-
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with less than one third filled,
-
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according to the fire marshal,
-
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you saw all the empty seats
-
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if you saw the news clips,
-
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so even the most loyal Trump supporters
-
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must have decided to trust their doctors
-
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and the medical advice
-
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rather than Dr. Donald Trump.
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CA: With a little help from
the TikTok generation, per chance.
-
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AG: Well, but that didn't
affect the turnout.
-
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What they did, very cleverly,
and I'm cheering them on,
-
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what they did was affect
the Trump White House's expectations.
-
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They're the reason why he went out
a couple days beforehand
-
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and said, "We've had
a million people sign up."
-
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But they didn't prevent,
-
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they didn't take seats that others
could have otherwise taken.
-
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They didn't affect the turnout,
just the expectations.
-
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CA: OK, let's have our next question here.
-
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"Are you concerned the world will rush
back to the use of the private car
-
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out of fear of using
shared public transportation?"
-
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AG: Well, that could actually be
one of the consequences, absolutely.
-
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Now, the trends on mass transit
-
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were already inching
in the wrong direction
-
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because of Uber and Lyft
-
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and the ridesharing services,
-
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and if autonomy ever reaches the goals
that its advocates have hoped for
-
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then that may also have a similar effect.
-
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But there's no doubt that some people
-
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are gonna be probably a little more
reluctant to take mass transportation
-
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until the fear of this pandemic
-
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is well and truly gone.
-
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CA: Yeah. Might need
a vaccine on that one.
-
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AG: (Laughs) Yeah.
-
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CA: Next question.
-
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Sonaar Luthra, thank you
for this question from LA.
-
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"Given the temperature rise
in the Arctic this past week,
-
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seems like the rate
we are losing our carbon sinks
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like permafrost or forests is accelerating
faster than we predicted.
-
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Are our models too focused
on human emissions?"
-
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Interesting question.
-
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AG: Well, the models are focused
on the factors that have led
-
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to these incredible temperature spikes
-
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in the north of the Arctic Circle.
-
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They were predicted,
they have been predicted,
-
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and one of the reasons for it
-
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is that as the snow and ice cover melts,
-
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the sun's incoming rays
-
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are no longer reflected back into space
at a 90 percent rate,
-
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and instead when they fall on
the dark tundra or the dark ocean,
-
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they're absorbed at a 90 percent rate.
-
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So that's a magnifier
-
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of the warming in the Arctic,
-
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and this has been predicted.
-
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There are a number of other consequences
that are also in the models,
-
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but some of them
may have to be recalibrated.
-
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The scientists are freshly concerned
-
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that the emissions of both CO2 and methane
-
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from the thawing tundra
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could be larger than they
had hoped they would be.
-
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There's also just been a brand new study.
-
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I won't spend time on this,
-
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because it deals with a kind of geeky term
called "climate sensitivity,"
-
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which has been a factor in the models
with large error bars
-
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because it's so hard to pin down.
-
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But the latest evidence
indicates worryingly
-
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that the sensitivity may be
greater than they had thought,
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and we will have
an even more daunting task.
-
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That shouldn't discourage us.
-
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I truly believe that once
we cross this tipping point,
-
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and I do believe we're doing it now,
-
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as I've said,
-
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then I think we're going to find
-
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a lot of ways to speed up
the emissions reductions.
-
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CA: We'll take one more question
from the community.
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Haha. "Geoengineering
is making extraordinary progress.
-
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Exxon is investing in technology
from Global Thermostat
-
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that seems promising.
-
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What do you think of these air and water
carbon capture technologies?"
-
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Stephen Petranek.
-
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AG: Yeah.
-
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Well, you and I have talked
about this before, Chris.
-
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I've been strongly opposed
-
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to conducting an unplanned
global experiment
-
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that could go wildly wrong
-
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and most are really
scared of that approach.
-
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However, the term geoengineering
-
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is a nuanced term that covers a lot.
-
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If you want to paint roofs white
to reflect more energy
-
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from the cityscapes,
-
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that's not going to bring a danger
of a runaway effect,
-
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and there are some other things
that are loosely called "geoengineering"
-
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like that which are fine.
-
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But the idea of blocking out
the sun's rays,
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that's insane in my opinion.
-
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Turns out plants need sunlight
for photosynthesis
-
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and solar panels need sunlight
-
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for producing electricity
from the sun's rays.
-
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And the consequences of changing
everything we know
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and pretending that the consequences
are going to precisely cancel out
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the unplanned experiment of global warming
that we already have underway,
-
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you know, there are
glitches in our thinking.
-
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One of them is called
the single solution bias,
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and there are people
who just have a hunger to say,
-
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well, that one solution, we just need
to latch on to that and do that,
-
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and do that, and damn the consequences.
-
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Well, it's nuts.
-
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CA: But let me push back on this
just a little bit.
-
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So let's say that we agree
that a single solution
-
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all-or-nothing attempt
at geoengineering is crazy.
-
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But there are scenarios where the world
looks at emissions and just sees
-
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in 10 years' time, let's say, that they
are just not coming down fast enough
-
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and that we are at risk
-
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of several other liftoff events
-
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where this train will just
get away from us,
-
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and we will see temperature rises
of three, four, five, six, seven degrees
-
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and all of civilization is at risk.
-
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Surely there is an approach
to geoengineering
-
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that could be modeled in a way
on the way that we approach medicine.
-
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Like, for hundreds of years,
we don't really understand the human body,
-
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people would try interventions
-
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and some of them would work
and some of them wouldn't.
-
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No one says in medicine, you know,
-
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go in and take an all-or-nothing decision
-
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on someone's life,
-
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but they do say, let's try some stuff.
-
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If an experiment can be reversible,
-
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if it's plausible in the first place,
-
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if there's reason to think
that it might work,
-
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we actually owe it to
the future health of humanity
-
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to try at least some types of tests
to see what could work.
-
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So small steps to see
whether, for example,
-
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seeding of something in the ocean
-
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might create, in a nonthreatening way,
-
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carbon sinks.
-
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Or, rather than filling the atmosphere
with sulfur dioxide, a smaller experiment
-
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that was not that big a deal
to see whether, cost-effectively,
-
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you could reduce
the temperature a little bit.
-
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Surely that isn't completely crazy
-
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and is at least something
we should be thinking about
-
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in case these other measures don't work?
-
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AG: Well, there've already been
such experiments
-
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to seed the ocean
-
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to see if that can increase
the uptake of CO2.
-
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And the experiments
were an unmitigated failure,
-
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as many predicted they would be.
-
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But that again
-
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is the kind of approach
-
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that's very different
-
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from putting tinfoil strips
in the atmosphere orbiting the earth.
-
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That was the way that solar
geoengineering proposal started.
-
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Now they're focusing on chalk,
-
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so we have chalk dust all over everything.
-
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But more serious than that
is the fact that it might not reversible.
-
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CA: But, Al, that's the rhetoric response.
-
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The amount of dust that you need
-
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to drop by a degree or two
-
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wouldn't result in chalk dust
over everything.
-
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It would be unbelievably,
-
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like, it would be less than the dust
that people experience everyday anyway.
-
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I mean, I just --
-
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AG: First of all, I don't know
how you do a small experiment
-
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in the atmosphere,
-
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and secondly,
-
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if we were to take that approach,
-
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we would have to steadily increase
-
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the amount of whatever
substance they decided.
-
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We'd have to increase it every single year,
-
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and if we ever stopped,
-
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then there would be a sudden snapback,
-
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like the Picture of Dorian Gray,
that old book and movie,
-
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where suddenly all of the things
caught up with you at once.
-
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The fact that anyone is even
considering these approaches, Chris,
-
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is a measure of a feeling of desperation
that some have begun to feel,
-
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which I understand
-
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but I don't think it should drive us
toward these reckless experiments.
-
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And by the way, using your analogy
to experimental cancer treatments,
-
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for example,
-
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you usually get informed consent
from the patient.
-
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Getting informed consent
from 7.8 billion people
-
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who have no voice and no say,
-
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who are subject to the potentially
catastrophic consequences
-
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of this whack-a-doodle proposal
-
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that somebody comes up with
-
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to try to rearrange
the entire Earth's atmosphere
-
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and hope and pretend
that it's going to cancel out,
-
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the fact that we're putting
152 million tons
-
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of heat-trapping, man-made
global warming pollution
-
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into the sky every day.
-
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That's what's really insane.
-
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A scientist decades ago
-
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compared it this way.
-
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He said, if you had two people
on a sinking boat
-
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and one of them says,
-
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"You know, we could probably use
some mirrors to signal to shore
-
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to get them to build
-
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a sophisticated wave-generating machine
-
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that will cancel out
the rocking of the boat
-
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by these guys in the back of the boat."
-
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Or you could get them
to stop rocking the boat.
-
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And that's what we need to do.
We need to stop what's causing the crisis.
-
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CA: Yeah, that's a great story,
-
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but if the effort to stop the people
rocking in the back of the boat
-
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is as complex as the scientific
proposal you just outlined,
-
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whereas the experiment to stop the waves
-
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is actually as simple as telling
the people to stop rocking the boat,
-
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that story changes.
-
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And I think you're right that
the issue of informed consent
-
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is a really challenging one,
-
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but, I mean, no one gave informed consent
-
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to do all of the other things
we're doing to the atmosphere.
-
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And I agree that the moral hazard issue
-
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is worrying,
-
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that if we became dependent
-
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on geoengineering
-
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and took away our efforts to do the rest,
-
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that would be tragic.
-
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It just seems like,
-
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I wish it was possible
to have a nuanced debate
-
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of people saying, you know what,
-
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there's multiple dials
to a very complex problem.
-
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We're going to have to adjust
several of them very, very carefully
-
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and keep talking to each other.
-
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Wouldn't that be a goal
-
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to just try and have
a more nuanced debate about this,
-
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rather than all of that geoengineering
-
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can't work?
-
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AG: Well, I've said some of it,
-
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you know, the benign forms
that I've mentioned,
-
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I'm not ruling those out,
-
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but blocking the Sun's rays
from the Earth,
-
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not only do you affect 7.8 billion people,
-
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you affect the plants
-
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and the animals
-
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and the ocean currents
-
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and the wind currents
-
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and natural processes
-
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that we're in danger
of disrupting even more.
-
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So techno-optimism
-
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is something I've engaged in
-
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in the past,
-
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but to latch on to some
brand new technological solution
-
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to rework the entire Earth's
natural system
-
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because somebody thinks he's clever enough
-
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to do it in a way
that precisely cancels out
-
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the consequences of using
the atmosphere as an open sewer
-
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for heat-trapping manmade gases.
-
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It's much more important to stop using
the atmosphere as an open sewer.
-
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That's what the problem is.
-
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CA: All right, well we'll agree that that
is the most important thing, for sure,
-
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and speaking of which,
-
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do you believe the world
needs carbon pricing,
-
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and is there any prospect
for getting there?
-
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AG: Yes. Yes to both questions.
-
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For decades, almost every economist
-
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who is asked about the climate crisis
-
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says, "Well, we just need
to put a price on carbon."
-
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And I have certainly been
in favor of that approach.
-
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But it is daunting.
-
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Nevertheless, there are 43 jurisdictions
-
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around the world that already have
a price on carbon.
-
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We're seeing it in Europe.
-
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They finally straightened out
their carbon pricing mechanism.
-
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It's an emissions trading version of it.
-
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We have places that have put
a tax on carbon.
-
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That's the approach the economists prefer.
-
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China is beginning to implement
its national emissions trading program.
-
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California and quite a few other states
in the US are already doing it.
-
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It can be given back to people
-
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in a revenue-neutral way.
-
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But the opposition to it, Chris,
-
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which you've noted,
-
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is impressive enough
-
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that we do have to take other approaches,
-
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and I would say most climate activists
are now saying, look,
-
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let's don't make the best
the enemy of the better.
-
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There are other ways to do this as well.
-
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We need every solution
we can rationally employ,
-
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including by regulation
-
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and often when the political difficulty
of a proposal becomes too difficult
-
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in a market-oriented approach,
-
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the fallback is with regulation,
-
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and it's been given a bad name,
-
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regulation,
-
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but many places are doing it.
-
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I mentioned phasing out
internal combustion engines.
-
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That's an example.
-
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There are 160 cities in the US
-
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that have already by regulation ordered
that within a date certain
-
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100 percent of all their electricity
will have to come from renewable sources.
-
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And again, the market forces that
are driving the cost of renewable energy
-
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and sustainability solutions
ever downward,
-
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that gives us the wind at our back.
-
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This is working in our favor.
-
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CA: I mean, the pushback on carbon pricing
-
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often goes further from parts
of the environmental movement,
-
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which is to a pushback
on the role of business in general.
-
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Business is actually, well,
capitalism is blamed
-
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for the climate crisis
-
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because of unrelenting growth,
-
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to the point where many people
don't trust business
-
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to be part of the solution.
-
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The only way to go forward
-
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is to regulate,
-
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to force businesses to do the right thing.
-
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Do you think that business
has to be part of the solution?
-
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AG: Well, definitely,
-
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because the allocation of capital
needed to solve this crisis
-
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is greater than what
governments can handle.
-
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And businesses are beginning,
-
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many businesses are beginning
-
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to play a very constructive role.
-
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They're getting a demand that they do so
-
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from their customers,
from their investors,
-
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from their boards,
-
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from their executive teams,
from their families.
-
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And by the way,
-
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the rising generation is demanding
a brighter future,
-
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and when CEOs interview
potential new hires,
-
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they find that the new hires
are interviewing them.
-
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They want to make a nice income,
-
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but they want to be able
to tell their family and friends
-
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and peers that they're doing
something more than just making money.
-
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One illustration of how
this new generation is changing, Chris:
-
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there are 65 colleges in the US right now
-
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where the College Young Republican Clubs
-
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have joined together
-
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to jointly demand that
the Republican National Committee
-
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change its policy on climate,
-
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lest they lose that entire generation.
-
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This is a global phenomenon.
-
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The Greta Generation
-
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is now leading this
-
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in so many ways,
-
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and if you look at the polling,
-
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again, the vast majority
of young Republicans
-
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are demanding a change on climate policy.
-
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This is really a movement
-
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that is building still.
-
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CA: I was going to ask you about that,
-
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because one of the most painful things
over the last 20 years
-
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has just been how climate
has been politicized,
-
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certainly in the US.
-
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You've probably felt yourself
at the heart of that a lot of the time,
-
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with people attacking you personally
in the most merciless
-
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and unfair ways, often.
-
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Do you really see signs
-
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that that might be changing,
-
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led by the next generation?
-
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AG: Yeah, there's no question about it.
-
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I don't want to rely on polls too much.
-
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I've mentioned them already.
-
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But there was a new one that came out
-
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that looked at the wavering
Trump supporters,
-
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those who supported him
strongly in the past
-
Not Synced
and want to do so again.
-
Not Synced
The number one issue,
surprisingly to some,
-
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that is giving them pause,
-
Not Synced
is the craziness of President Trump
and his administration on climate.
-
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We're seeing big majorities
of the Republican Party overall
-
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saying that they're ready
-
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to start exploring some real solutions
to the climate crisis.
-
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I think that we're really getting there,
no question about it.
-
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CA: I mean, you've been
the figurehead for raising this issue,
-
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and you happen to be a Democrat.
-
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Is there anything
-
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that you can personally do
-
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to open the tent, to welcome people,
-
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to try and say this is
beyond politics, dear friends?
-
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AG: Yeah. Well, I've tried
all of those things,
-
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and maybe it's made a little
positive difference.
-
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I've worked with
the Republicans extensively.
-
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And, you know, well after
I left the White House,
-
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I had Newt Gingrich and Pat Robertson
-
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and other prominent Republicans
-
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appear on national TV ads with me
-
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saying we've got to solve
the climate crisis.
-
Not Synced
But the petroleum industry
-
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has really double down
-
Not Synced
in forcing discipline
within the Republican Party.
-
Not Synced
I mean, look at the attacks
they've launched against the Pope
-
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when he came out with his encyclical
-
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and was demonized,
-
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not by all for sure,
-
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but there were hawks
-
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in the anti-climate movement
-
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who immediately started
training their guns on Pope Francis,
-
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and there are many other examples.
-
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They enforce discipline
-
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and try to make it a partisan issue,
-
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even as Democrats reach out
-
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and try to make it bipartisan.
-
Not Synced
I totally agree with you
that it should not be a partisan issue.
-
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It didn't use to be,
-
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but it's been artificially
weaponized as an issue.
-
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CA: I mean, the CEOs
of oil companies also have kids
-
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who are talking to them.
-
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It feels like some of them are moving
-
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and are trying to invest
-
Not Synced
and trying to find ways
of being part of the future.
-
Not Synced
Do you see signs of that?
-
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AG: Yeah.
-
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I think that business leaders,
including in the oil and gas companies,
-
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are hearing from their families.
-
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They're hearing from the friends.
-
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They're hearing from their employees.
-
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And, by the way, we've seen
in the tech industry
-
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some mass walkouts by employees
-
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who are demanding
that some of the tech companies
-
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do more and get serious.
-
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I'm so proud of Apple.
-
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Forgive me for parenthetically
praising Apple.
-
Not Synced
You know I'm on the board,
but I'm such a big fan of Tim Cook
-
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and my colleagues at Apple.
-
Not Synced
It's an example of a tech company
-
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that's really doing fantastic things.
-
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And there's some others as well.
-
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There are others in many industries.
-
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But the pressures on
the oil and gas companies
-
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are quite extraordinary.
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You know, BP just wrote down
12 and a half billion dollars' worth
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of oil and gas assets
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and said that they're never
going to see the light of day.
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Two thirds of the fossil fuels
that have already been discovered
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cannot be burned and will not be burned.
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And so that's a big economic risk
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to the global economy,
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like the subprime mortgage crisis.
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We've got 22 trillion dollars
of subprime carbon assets
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and just yesterday
there was a major report
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that the fracking industry in the US
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is seeing now a wave of bankruptcies
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because the price
of the fracked gas and oil
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has fallen below levels
that make them economic.
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CA: Is the shorthand
of what's happened there
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is that electric cars
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and electric technologies
and solar and so forth
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have helped drive down the price of oil
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to the point where
huge amounts of the reserves
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just can't be developed profitably?
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AG: Yes, that's it.
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That's mainly it.
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The projections for energy sources
in the next several years
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uniformly predict that electricity
from wind and solar
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is going to continue to plummet in price,
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and therefore using gas or coal
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to make steam to turn the turbines
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is just not going to be economical.
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Similarly, the electrification
of the transportation sector
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is having the same effect.
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Some are also looking at the trend
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in national, regional
and local governance.
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I mentioned this before,
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but they're predicting
a very different energy future.
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But let me come back, Chris,
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because we talked about business leaders.
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I think you were getting in a question
a moment ago about capitalism itself,
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and I do want to say a word on that,
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because there are a lot of people who say
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maybe capitalism is the basic problem.
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I think the current form of capitalism
we have is desperately in need of reform.
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The short-term outlook is often mentioned,
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but the way we measure
what is of value to us
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is also at the heart of the crisis
of modern capitalism.
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Now, capitalism is at the base
of every successful economy,
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and it balances supply and demand,
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unlocks a higher fraction
of the human potential,
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and it's not going anywhere,
but it needs to be reformed,
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because the way we measure
what's valuable now
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ignores so-called negative externalities
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like pollution.
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It also ignores positive externalities
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like investments
in education and health care,
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mental health care, family services.
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It ignores the depletion of resources
like groundwater and topsoil
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and the web of living species.
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And it ignores the distribution
of incomes and net worth,
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so when GDP goes up, people cheer,
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two percent, three percent,
wow, four percent, and they think, great.
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But it's accompanied
by vast increases in pollution,
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chronic underinvestment in public goods,
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the depletion of irreplaceable
natural resources,
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and the worst inequality crisis we've seen
in more than a hundred years
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that is threatening the future
of both capitalism and democracy.
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So we have to change it.
We have to reform it.
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CA: So reform capitalism,
but don't throw it out.
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We're going to need it as a tool
as we go forward
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if we're to solve this.
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AG: Yeah, I think that's right,
and just one other point:
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the worst environmental abuses
in the last hundred years
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have been in jurisdictions
that experimented during the 20th century
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with the alternatives to capitalism
on the left and right.
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CA: Interesting. All right.
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Two last community questions quickly.
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Chadburn Blomquist:
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"As you are reading the tea leaves
of the impact of the current pandemic,
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what do you think in regard to
our response to combatting climate change
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will be the most impactful
lesson learned?"
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AG: Boy, that's a very
thoughtful question,
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and I wish my answer could rise
to the same level on short notice.
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I would say first,
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don't ignore the scientists.
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When there is virtual unanimity
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among the scientific and medical experts,
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pay attention.
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Don't let some politician dissuade you.
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I think President Trump is slowly learning
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that's it's kind of difficult
to gaslight a virus.
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He tried to gaslight the virus in Tulsa.
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It didn't come off very well,
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and tragically he decided
to recklessly roll the dice a month ago
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and ignore the recommendations
for people to wear masks
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and to socially distance
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and to do the other things,
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and I think that lesson
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is beginning to take hold
in a much stronger way.
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But beyond that, Chris,
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I think that this period of time
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has been characterized
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by one of the most profound opportunities
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for people to rethink
the patterns of their lives
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and to consider whether or not
we can't do a lot of things better
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and differently.
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And I think that this rising
generation I mentioned before
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has been even more profoundly affected
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by this interlude,
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which I hope ends soon,
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but I hope the lessons endure.
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I expect they will.
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CA: Yeah, it's amazing how many things
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you can do without emitting carbon,
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that we've been forced to do.
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Let's have one more question here.
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Frank Hennessy: "Are you encouraged
by the ability of people
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to quickly adapt to the new normal
due to COVID-19 as evidence that people
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can and will change their habits
to respond to climate change?
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AG: Yes, but I think we have
to keep in mind
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that there is a crisis within this crisis.
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The impact on the African American
community, which I mentioned before,
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on the Latinx community,
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Indigenous peoples.
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The highest infection rate
is in the Navajo Nation right now.
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So some of these questions
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appear differently to those
who are really getting the brunt
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of this crisis,
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and it is unacceptable
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that we allow this to continue.
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It feels one way to you and me,
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and perhaps to many in our audience today,
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but for low-income communities of color
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it's an entirely different crisis,
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and we owe it to them
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and to all of us
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to get busy and to start
using the best science
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and solve this pandemic.
-
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You know the phrase "pandemic economics."
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Somebody said, the first principle
of pandemic economics
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is take care of the pandemic,
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and we're not doing that yet.
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We're seeing the president
try to goose the economy
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or his reelection,
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never mind the prediction
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of tens of thousands
of additional American deaths,
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and that is just
unforgivable in my opinion.
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CA: Thank you, Frank.
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So Al, you along with others
in the community
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had a key role in encouraging TED
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to launch this initiative
called Countdown.
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Thank you for that,
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and I guess this conversation
is continuing among many of us.
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If you're interested
in climate, watching this,
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check out the Countdown website,
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countdown.ted.com,
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and be part of 10/10/2020,
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when are trying
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to put out an alert to the world
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that climate can't wait,
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that it really matters,
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and there's going to be
some amazing content
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free to the world on that day.
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Thank you, Al, for your inspiration
and support in doing that.
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I wonder whether you
could end today's session
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just by painting us a picture,
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how might things roll out
over the next decade or so?
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Just tell us whether there is still
a story of hope here?
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AG: I'd be glad to.
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I've got to get one plug in.
I'll make it brief.
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July 18 through July 26,
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the Climate Reality Project
-
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is having a global training.
-
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We've already had 8,000 people register.
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You can go to climatereality.com.
-
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Now, a bright future.
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It begins with all of the kinds of efforts
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that you've thrown yourself into
in organizing Countdown.
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Chris, you and your team have been amazing
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to work with,
-
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and I'm so excited
about the Countdown project.
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TED has an unparalleled ability
-
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to spread ideas that are worth spreading,
-
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to raise consciousness,
-
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to enlighten people around the world,
-
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and it's needed for climate
and the solutions to the climate crisis
-
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like it's never been needed before,
-
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and I just want to thank you
for what you personally are doing
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to organize this fantastic
Countdown program.
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CA: Thank you.
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And the world? Are we going to do this?
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Do you think that humanity
is going to pull this off
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and that our grandchildren
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are going to have beautiful lives
-
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where they can celebrate nature
and not spend every day
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in fear of the next tornado or tsunami?
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AG: I am optimistic that we will do it,
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but the answer is in our hands.
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We have seen dark times
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in periods of the past,
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and we have risen to meet the challenge.
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We have limitations of our long
evolutionary heritage
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and elements of our culture,
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but we also have the ability
to transcend our limitations,
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and when the chips are down,
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and when survival is at stake
-
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and when our children
and future generations are at stake,
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we're capable of more than we sometimes
allow ourselves to think we can do.
-
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This is such a time.
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I believe we will rise to the occasion,
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and we will create a bright,
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clean, prosperous, just and fair future.
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I believe it with all my heart.
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CA: Al Gore, thank you
for your life of work,
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for all you've done to elevate this issue,
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and for spending this time with us now.
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Thank you.
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AG: Back at you. Thank you.