The new urgency of climate change

Chris Anderson: Welcome.

So look, just six months ago,

it seems a lifetime ago,
but it really was just six months ago,

climate seemed to be on the lips
of every thinking person on the planet.

Recent events seem to have swept it
all away from our attention.

How worried are you about that?

Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris,
thank you so much for inviting me

to have this conversation.

People are reacting differently

to the climate crisis

in the midst of these
other great challenges

that have taken over our awareness,

appropriately.

One reason is something
that you mentioned.

People get the fact that when scientists

are warning us

in ever more dire terms

and setting their hair
on fire, so to speak,

it's best to listen
to what they're saying,

and I think that lesson
has begun to sink in in a new way.

Another similarity, by the way,

is that the climate crisis,

like the COVID-19 pandemic,

has revealed in a new way

the shocking injustices and inequalities

and disparities that affect
communities of color

and low-income communities.

There are differences.

The climate crisis has effects
that are not measured in years,

as the pandemic is,

but consequences that are measured
in centuries and even longer.

And the other difference

is that instead of depressing
economic activity

to deal with the climate crisis,

as nations around the world
have had to do with COVID-19,

we have the opportunity to create
tens of millions of new jobs.

That sounds like a political phrasing,

but it's literally true.

For the last five years,

the fastest-growing job in the US
has been solar installer.

The second fastest has been
wind turbine technician.

And the Oxford Review of Economics

just a few weeks ago

pointed the way to
a very jobs-rich recovery

if we emphasize renewable energy
and sustainability technology.

So I think we are
crossing a tipping point,

and you need only look
at the recovery plans

that are being presented
in nations around the world

to see that they're very much
focused on a green recovery.

CA: I mean, one obvious impact
of the pandemic

is that it's brought the world's economy
to a shuddering halt,

thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

I mean, how big an effect has that been,

and is it unambiguously good news?

AG: Well, it's a little bit
of an illusion, Chris,

and you need only look back
to the Great Recession in 2008 and '9,

where there was a one percent
decline in emissions,

but then in 2010

they came roaring back during the recovery

with a four percent increase.

The latest estimates are that emissions
will go down by at least five percent

during this induced coma,

as the economist Paul Krugman
perceptively described it,

but whether it goes back the way it did
after the Great Recession

is in part up to us,

and if these green recovery plans
are actually implemented,

and I know many countries
are determined to implement them,

then we need not repeat that pattern.

After all, this whole process is occurring

during a period when the cost
of renewable energy and electric vehicles,

batteries, and a range of other
sustainability approaches

are continuing to fall in price,

and they're becoming
much more competitive.

Just a quick reference
to how fast this is:

five years ago, electricity
from solar and wind

was cheaper than electricity
from fossil fuels

in only one percent of the world.

This year, it's cheaper
in two thirds of the world,

and five years from now

it will be cheaper in virtually
100 percent of the world.

EVs will be cost-competitive
within two years,

and then will continue falling in price.

And so there are changes underway

that could interrupt the pattern
we saw after the Great Recession.

CA: The reason those pricing differentials
happen in different parts of the world

is obviously just because

there's different amounts
of sunshine and wind there

and different building costs and so forth.

AG: Well, yes, and government policies
also count for a lot.

The world is continuing
to subsidize fossil fuels

at a ridiculous amount,

moreso may developing countries
than in the US and developed countries,

but it's subsidized here as well.

But everywhere in the world,

wind and solar will be cheaper
as a source of electricity

than fossil fuels within a few years.

CA: I think I've heard it said
that the fall in emissions

caused the pandemic

isn't that much more

than the fall that we will need
every single year

if we're to meet emissions targets.

Is that true, and, if so,

doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?

AG: It does seem daunting,
but first look at the number.

That number came from a study
a little over a year ago

released by the IPCC

as to what it would take

to keep the Earth's temperatures

from increasing more than
1.5 degrees Celsius.

And yes, the annual reductions
would be significant,

on the order of what we've seen
with the pandemic.

And yes, that does seem daunting.

However, we do have the opportunity
to make some fairly dramatic changes,

and the plan is not a mystery.

You start with the two sectors that are
closest to an effective transition --

electricity generation, as I mentioned,

and last year, 2019,

if you look at all of the new
electricity generation built

all around the world,

72 percent of it was from solar and wind.

And already, without the continuing
subsidies for fossil fuels,

we would see many more of these plants

being shut down.

There are some new
fossil plants being built,

but many more are being shut down.

And where transportation is concerned,

the second sector ready to go,

in addition to the cheaper prices
for EVs that I made reference to before,

there are some 45 jurisdictions
around the world --

national, regional, and municipal --

where laws have been passed
beginning a phaseout

of internal combustion engines.

Even India said that by 2030,
less than 10 years from now,

it will be illegal to sell
any new internal combustion engines

in India.

There are many other examples.

So the past small reductions

may not be an accurate guide

to the kind we can achieve

with serious national plans

and a focused global effort.

CA: So help us understand
just the big picture here, Al.

I think before the pandemic,

the world was emitting

about 55 gigatons of what
they call CO2 equivalent,

so that includes other greenhouse gases

like methane dialed up
to be the equivalent of CO2.

And am I right in saying that the IPCC,

which is the global
organization of scientists,

is recommending that
the only way to fix this crisis

is to get that number from 55 to zero

by 2050 at the very latest,

and that even then that there's a chance
that we will end up with temperature rises

more like two degrees Celsius
rather than 1.5.

I mean, is that approximately
the big picture

of what the IPCC is recommending?

AG: That's correct.

The global goal established
in the Paris Conference

is to get to net zero on a global basis

by 2050,

and many people quickly add

that that really means a 45
to 50 percent reduction by 2030

to make that pathway

to net zero feasible.

CA: And that kind of timeline
is the kind of timeline

where people can't even imagine.

It's just hard to think
of policy over 30 years.

So that's actually a very good shorthand,

that humanity's task is to cut
emissions in half by 2030,

approximately speaking,

which I think boils down to

about a seven or eight percent
reduction a year, something like that,

if I'm not wrong.

AG: Not quite. Not quite that large,

but close, yes.

CA: So it is something like the effect
that we've experienced this year

maybe be necessary.

This year we've done it
by basically shutting down the economy.

You're talking about a way of doing it
over the coming years

that actually gives some
economic growth and new jobs.

So talk more about that.

You've referred to
changing our energy sources,

changing how we transport.

If we did those things,

how much of the problem does that solve?

AG: Well, we can get to,

well, in addition to doing
the two sectors that I mentioned,

we also have to deal with manufacturing
and all the use cases

that require temperatures
to a thousand degrees Celsius,

and there are solutions there as well.

I'll come back and mention an exciting one
that Germany has just embarked upon.

We also have to tackle
regenerative agriculture.

There is the opportunity

to sequester a great deal of carbon

in topsoils around the world

by changing the agricultural techniques.

There is a farmer-led movement to do that.

We need to also retrofit buildings.

We need to change our management
of forests and the ocean.

But let me just mention
two things briefly.

First of all, the high
temperature use cases.

Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,

with the leadership of
her Minister Peter Altmaier,

who is a good friend
and a great public servant,

have just embarked on
a green hydrogen strategy

to make hydrogen

with zero marginal cost renewable energy.

And just a word on that, Chris,

you've heard about the intermittency
of wind and solar.

Solar doesn't produce electricity
when the sun's not shining

and wind doesn't
when the wind's not blowing.

But batteries are getting better,

and these technologies are becoming
much more efficient and powerful,

so that for an increasing
number of hours of each day,

they're producing often way more
electricity than can be used.

So what to do with it?

The marginal cost for
the next kilowatt-hour is zero.

So all of a sudden,

the very energy-intensive process
of cracking hydrogen from water

becomes economically feasible,

and it can be substituted

for coal and gas,

and that's already being done.

There's a Swedish company
already making steel

with green hydrogen,

and as I say Germany has just embarked
on a major new initiative to do that.

I think they're pointing the way
for the rest of the world.

Now, where building retrofits
are concerned, just a moment on this,

because about 20 to 25 percent
of the global warming pollution

in the world and in the US

comes from inefficient buildings

that were constructed

by companies and individuals

who were trying to be competitive
in the marketplace

and keep their margins acceptably high

and thereby skimping on insulation
and the right windows

and LEDs and the rest.

And yet the person or company
that buys that building

or leases that building,

they want their monthly
utility bills much lower.

So there are now ways

to close that so-called
agent-principal divide,

the differing incentives
for the building and occupier,

and we can retrofit buildings with
a program that literally pays for itself

over three to five years,

and we could put tens of millions
of people to work

in jobs that by definition
cannot be outsourced

because they exist
in every single community.

And we really ought to get serious
about doing this,

because we're going to need all those jobs

to get sustainable prosperity
in the aftermath of this pandemic.

CA: Just coming back
to the hydrogen economy

that you referred to there,

when some people hear that,

they think, oh, are you talking
about hydrogen-fueled cars?

And they've heard that that
probably won't be a winning strategy.

But you're thinking much more
broadly than that, I think,

that it's not just hydrogen
as a kind of storage mechanism

to act as a buffer for renewable energy,

but also hydrogen could be essential

for some of the other processes
in the economy like making steel,

making cement

that are fundamentally
carbon-intensive processes right now

but could be transformed if we had
much cheaper sources of hydrogen.

Is that right?

AG: Yes, I was always skeptical
about hydrogen, Chris,

principally because it's been so expensive

to make it,

to crack it out of water, as they say.

But the game-changer has been
the incredible abundance

of solar and wind electricity
in volumes and amounts

that people didn't expect,

and all of a sudden
it's cheap enough to use

for these very energy-intensive processes

like creating green hydrogen.

I'm still a bit skeptical
about using it in vehicles.

Toyota's been betting on that for 25 years
and hasn't really worked for them.

Never say never, maybe it will,

but I think it's most useful for these
high-temperature industrial processes,

and we already have a pathway
for decarbonizing transportation

with electricity

that's working extremely well.

Tesla's going to be soon the most valuable
automobile company in the world,

already in the US,

and they're about to overtake Toyota.

There is now a semi truck company

that's been stood up by Tesla

and another that is going to be a hybrid
with electricity and green hydrogen,

so we'll see whether or not
they can make it work in that application.

But I think electricity
is preferable for cars and trucks.

CA: We're coming to some
community questions in a minute.

Let me ask you, though, about nuclear.

Some environmentalists
believe that nuclear,

or maybe new generation nuclear power

is an essential part of the equation

if we're to get to a truly clean future,

a clean energy future.

Are you still pretty skeptical
on nuclear, Al?

AG: Well, the market's skeptical
about it, Chris.

It's been a crushing disappointment
for me and for so many.

I used to represent Oak Ridge,
where nuclear energy began,

and when I was a young congressman

I was a booster.

I was very enthusiastic about it.

But the cost overruns

and the problems in building these plants

have become so severe

that utilities just don't have
an appetite for them.

It's become the most expensive
source of electricity.

Now, let me hasten to add
that there are some older nuclear reactors

that have more useful time
that could be added on to their lifetimes,

and like a lot of environmentalists
I've come to the view

that if they can be determined to be safe,

they should be allowed to continue
operating for a time.

But where new nuclear
power plants are concerned,

here's a way to look at it.

If you are -- you've been a CEO, Chris.

If you were the CEO of --
I guess you still are.

If you were the CEO
of an electric utility,

and you told your executive team,

"I want to build a nuclear power plant,"

two of the first questions
you would ask are, number one,

how much will it cost?

And there's not a single
engineering consulting firm

that I've been able to find
anywhere in the world

that will put their name on an opinion

giving you a cost estimate.

They just don't know.

A second question you would ask is,
how long will it take to build it

so we can start selling the electricity?

And again the answer you will get is,

we have no idea.

So if you don't know
how much it's going to cost,

and you don't know
when it's going to be finished,

and you already know that
the electricity is more expensive

than the alternate ways to produce it,

that's going to be a little discouraging,

and in fact that's been the case
for utilities around the world.

CA: OK.

So there's definitely
an interesting debate there,

but we're going to come on
to some community questions.

Let's have the first
of those questions up please.

From Prosanta Chakrbarty:

"People who are skeptical
of COVID and of climate change

seem to be skeptical
of science in general.

It may be that the singular
message from scientists

gets diluted and convoluted.

How do we fix that?

AG: Yeah, that's
a great question, Prosanta.

Boy, I'm trying to put this
succinctly and shortly.

I think that there has been

a feeling that experts in general

have kind of let the US down,

and that feeling is much more pronounced
in the US than in most other countries.

And I think that considered opinion

of what we call experts

has been diluted over the last few decades

by the unhealthy dominance
of big money in our political system

which has found ways
to really twist economic policy

to benefit elites,

and this sounds a little radical

but it's actually what has happened.

And we have gone for more than 40 years

without any meaningful increase
in middle income pay,

and where the injustice experienced
by African Americans

and other communities
of color are concerned,

the differential in pay between
African Americans and majority Americans

is the same as it was in 1968,

and the family wealth,

the net worth,

it takes 11 and a half so-called
"typical" African American families

to make up the net worth of one
so-called "typical" White American family.

And you look at the soaring incomes

in the top one

or the top one tenth of one percent,

and people say, "Wait a minute.

Whoever the experts were
that designed these policies,

they haven't been doing
a good job for me."

A final point, Chris,

there has been an assault on reason.

There has been a war against truth.

There has been a strategy,

maybe it was best known as a strategy
decades ago by the tobacco companies

who hired actors and dressed them up
as doctors to falsely reassure people

that there were no health consequences

from smoking cigarettes,

and a hundred million people
died as a result.

That same strategy of diminishing
the significance of truth,

diminishing, as someone said,
the authority of knowledge,

I think that has made it open season

on any inconvenient truth --

forgive another buzz phrase --

but it is apt.

We cannot abandon our devotion
to the best available evidence

tested in reasoned discourse

and used as the basis

for the best policies we can form.

CA: Is it possible, Al,
that one consequence of the pandemic

is actually a growing number of people

have revisited their opinions

on scientists?

I mean, you've had a chance
in the last few months to say,

do I trust my political leader
or do I trust this scientist

in terms of what they're saying

about this virus.

Maybe lessons from that
could be carried forward?

AG: Well, you know, I think
if the polling is accurate,

people do trust their doctors
a lot more than some of the politicians

who seem to have a vested interest
in pretending the pandemic isn't real.

And if you look at the incredible bust

at President Trump's rally in Tulsa,

a stadium of 19,000 people

with less than one third filled,

according to the fire marshal,

you saw all the empty seats

if you saw the news clips,

so even the most loyal Trump supporters

must have decided to trust their doctors

and the medical advice

rather than Dr. Donald Trump.

CA: With a little help from
the TikTok generation, per chance.

AG: Well, but that didn't
affect the turnout.

What they did, very cleverly,
and I'm cheering them on,

what they did was affect
the Trump White House's expectations.

They're the reason why he went out
a couple days beforehand

and said, "We've had
a million people sign up."

But they didn't prevent,

they didn't take seats that others
could have otherwise taken.

They didn't affect the turnout,
just the expectations.

CA: OK, let's have our next question here.

"Are you concerned the world will rush
back to the use of the private car

out of fear of using
shared public transportation?"

AG: Well, that could actually be
one of the consequences, absolutely.

Now, the trends on mass transit

were already inching
in the wrong direction

because of Uber and Lyft

and the ridesharing services,

and if autonomy ever reaches the goals
that its advocates have hoped for

then that may also have a similar effect.

But there's no doubt that some people

are gonna be probably a little more
reluctant to take mass transportation

until the fear of this pandemic

is well and truly gone.

CA: Yeah. Might need
a vaccine on that one.

AG: (Laughs) Yeah.

CA: Next question.

Sonaar Luthra, thank you
for this question from LA.

"Given the temperature rise
in the Arctic this past week,

seems like the rate
we are losing our carbon sinks

like permafrost or forests is accelerating
faster than we predicted.

Are our models too focused
on human emissions?"

Interesting question.

AG: Well, the models are focused
on the factors that have led

to these incredible temperature spikes

in the north of the Arctic Circle.

They were predicted,
they have been predicted,

and one of the reasons for it

is that as the snow and ice cover melts,

the sun's incoming rays

are no longer reflected back into space
at a 90 percent rate,

and instead when they fall on
the dark tundra or the dark ocean,

they're absorbed at a 90 percent rate.

So that's a magnifier

of the warming in the Arctic,

and this has been predicted.

There are a number of other consequences
that are also in the models,

but some of them
may have to be recalibrated.

The scientists are freshly concerned

that the emissions of both CO2 and methane

from the thawing tundra

could be larger than they
had hoped they would be.

There's also just been a brand new study.

I won't spend time on this,

because it deals with a kind of geeky term
called "climate sensitivity,"

which has been a factor in the models
with large error bars

because it's so hard to pin down.

But the latest evidence
indicates worryingly

that the sensitivity may be
greater than they had thought,

and we will have
an even more daunting task.

That shouldn't discourage us.

I truly believe that once
we cross this tipping point,

and I do believe we're doing it now,

as I've said,

then I think we're going to find

a lot of ways to speed up
the emissions reductions.

CA: We'll take one more question
from the community.

Haha. "Geoengineering
is making extraordinary progress.

Exxon is investing in technology
from Global Thermostat

that seems promising.

What do you think of these air and water
carbon capture technologies?"

Stephen Petranek.

AG: Yeah.