3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons
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0:01 - 0:04So you know when
you're doubled over in pain -
0:04 - 0:07and you're wondering, is it your appendix
-
0:07 - 0:08or maybe you ate something funny?
-
0:09 - 0:13Well, when that happens to me,
I call my friend Sasha -- -
0:13 - 0:14Sasha is a doctor --
-
0:14 - 0:17and I say, "Should I rush
to the nearest emergency room -
0:17 - 0:18in a panic?
-
0:19 - 0:22Or am I OK to relax and just wait it out?"
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0:22 - 0:25Yes, I am that annoying friend.
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0:27 - 0:29But in September 2017,
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0:29 - 0:33friends of mine were suddenly calling me
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0:33 - 0:34for my professional opinion.
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0:36 - 0:38And no, I'm not a doctor,
-
0:38 - 0:40but they were asking me
questions of life and death. -
0:41 - 0:45So what was going on in September of 2017?
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0:45 - 0:50Well, North Korea was suddenly
and scarily all over the news. -
0:51 - 0:53Kim Jong-un had tested missiles
-
0:53 - 0:57potentially capable of hitting
major US cities, -
0:57 - 1:01and President Trump had responded
with tweets of "fire and fury." -
1:02 - 1:06And there was real concern
that tensions would escalate -
1:06 - 1:08to a potential war
-
1:08 - 1:10or even nuclear weapons use.
-
1:11 - 1:14So what my friends
were calling and asking was: -
1:14 - 1:17Should they panic or were the OK to relax?
-
1:19 - 1:23But really, they were asking me
a fundamental question: -
1:24 - 1:26"Am I safe?"
-
1:28 - 1:33While I was reassuring them that,
no, they didn't need to worry just yet, -
1:33 - 1:35the irony of their question dawned on me.
-
1:36 - 1:39What they hadn't really thought about
-
1:39 - 1:43is that we've all been living
under a much larger cloud for decades -- -
1:43 - 1:45potentially a mushroom cloud --
-
1:45 - 1:47without giving it much thought.
-
1:48 - 1:50Now it's not surprising
that friends of mine -
1:50 - 1:53and many others like them
don't know much about nuclear weapons -
1:53 - 1:55and don't think about them.
-
1:55 - 1:58After all, the end of the Cold War,
-
1:58 - 2:02the United States and Russia,
tension abated, -
2:02 - 2:04we started dismantling nuclear weapons,
-
2:04 - 2:07and they started to become
a relic of the past. -
2:07 - 2:10Generations didn't have to grow up
with the specter of nuclear war -
2:10 - 2:12hanging over their heads.
-
2:13 - 2:17And there other reasons people don't like
to think about nuclear weapons. -
2:17 - 2:19It's scary, overwhelming.
-
2:19 - 2:21I get it.
-
2:21 - 2:24Sometimes I wish I could have chosen
a cheerier field to study. -
2:24 - 2:25(Laughter)
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2:25 - 2:27Perhaps tax law would
have been more uplifting. -
2:27 - 2:29(Laughter)
-
2:31 - 2:33But in addition to that,
-
2:33 - 2:36people have so many other things
to think about in their busy lives, -
2:36 - 2:39and they'd much prefer to think
about something over which -
2:39 - 2:42they feel they have
some semblance of control, -
2:42 - 2:45and they assume that other people,
smarter than they on this topic, -
2:45 - 2:48are working away to keep us all safe.
-
2:49 - 2:53And then, there are other reasons
people don't talk about this, -
2:53 - 2:55and one is because we, as nuclear experts,
-
2:55 - 2:59use a whole lot of convoluted
jargon and terminology -
2:59 - 3:00to talk about these issues:
-
3:01 - 3:05CVID, ICBM, JCPOA.
-
3:06 - 3:09It's really inaccessible
for a lot of people. -
3:10 - 3:13And, in reality, it actually sometimes
I think makes us numb -
3:13 - 3:16to what we're really talking about here.
-
3:17 - 3:19And what we are really talking about here
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3:20 - 3:21is the fact that,
-
3:21 - 3:24while we've made dramatic reductions
in the number of nuclear weapons -
3:24 - 3:25since the Cold War,
-
3:25 - 3:31right now, there are almost 15,000
in the world today. -
3:32 - 3:3315,000.
-
3:36 - 3:40The United States and Russia have
over 90 percent of these nuclear weapons. -
3:41 - 3:44If you're wondering, these are
the countries that have the rest. -
3:45 - 3:47But they have far fewer,
-
3:47 - 3:50ranging in the sort of
300-ish range and below. -
3:53 - 3:57Adding to this situation is the fact
that we have new technologies -
3:57 - 3:59that potentially bring us new challenges.
-
4:00 - 4:05Could you imagine, one day,
countries like ours and others -
4:05 - 4:10potentially ceding decisions
about a nuclear strike to a robot, -
4:11 - 4:13based on algorithms?
-
4:13 - 4:15And what data do they use
to inform those algorithms? -
4:16 - 4:18This is pretty terrifying.
-
4:19 - 4:24So adding to this are terrorism potential,
-
4:24 - 4:27cyberattacks, miscalculation,
misunderstanding. -
4:27 - 4:30The list of nuclear nightmares
tends to grow longer by the day. -
4:30 - 4:33And there are a number
of former officials, -
4:33 - 4:35as well as experts,
-
4:35 - 4:38who worry that right now,
we're in greater danger -
4:38 - 4:41than we were in various points
in the Cold War. -
4:43 - 4:44So this is scary.
-
4:45 - 4:46What can we do?
-
4:47 - 4:48Well, thankfully,
-
4:48 - 4:49["Duck and Cover"]
-
4:49 - 4:53we don't have to rely
on the advice from the 1950s. -
4:53 - 4:54(Laughter)
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4:54 - 4:56We can take some control,
-
4:56 - 4:58and the way we do that
-
4:58 - 5:01is by starting to ask
some fundamental questions -
5:01 - 5:03about the status quo
-
5:03 - 5:06and whether we are happy
with the way it is. -
5:07 - 5:09We need to begin asking
questions of ourselves -
5:09 - 5:11and of our elected officials,
-
5:11 - 5:13and I'd like to share
three with you today. -
5:15 - 5:17The first one is,
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5:17 - 5:21"How much nuclear risk
are you willing to take or tolerate?" -
5:23 - 5:27Right now, nuclear policy
depends on deterrence theory. -
5:27 - 5:29Developed in the 1950s,
-
5:29 - 5:32the idea is that one
country's nuclear weapons -
5:32 - 5:35prevents another country
from using theirs. -
5:35 - 5:39So you nuke me, I nuke you,
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5:39 - 5:40and we both lose.
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5:41 - 5:43So in a way, there's a stalemate.
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5:43 - 5:46No one uses their weapons,
and we're all safe. -
5:47 - 5:53But this theory has real questions.
-
5:53 - 5:56There are experts
who challenge this theory -
5:56 - 5:59and wonder: Does it really work
this way in practice? -
6:00 - 6:04It certainly doesn't allow
for mistakes or miscalculations. -
6:06 - 6:08Now, I don't know about you,
-
6:08 - 6:13but I feel pretty uncomfortable
gambling my future survival, -
6:13 - 6:17yours, and our future generations',
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6:17 - 6:19on a theory that is questionable
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6:20 - 6:23and doesn't allow any room for a mistake.
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6:25 - 6:27It makes me even more uncomfortable
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6:27 - 6:30to be threatening the evaporation
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6:30 - 6:33of millions of people
on the other side of the Earth. -
6:34 - 6:37Surely we can do better for ourselves,
-
6:37 - 6:41drawing on our ingenuity
to solve complex problems, -
6:41 - 6:43as we have in the past.
-
6:43 - 6:46After all, this is a man-made,
-
6:46 - 6:47human-made --
-
6:47 - 6:49I shouldn't say "man,"
because women were involved -- -
6:50 - 6:51a human-made problem.
-
6:53 - 6:56We have human solutions
that should be possible. -
6:57 - 7:01So, next question: "Who do you think
should make nuclear decisions?" -
7:02 - 7:07Right now, in this democracy,
in the United States, -
7:07 - 7:09one person
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7:10 - 7:13gets to decide whether or not
to launch a nuclear strike. -
7:15 - 7:17They don't have to consult anybody.
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7:18 - 7:20So that's the president.
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7:21 - 7:24He or she can decide --
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7:24 - 7:26within a very limited amount of time,
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7:26 - 7:29under great pressure, potentially,
depending on the scenario, -
7:30 - 7:34maybe based on a miscalculation
or a misunderstanding -- -
7:34 - 7:37they can decide the fate
of millions of lives: -
7:38 - 7:40yours, mine, our community's.
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7:42 - 7:46And they can do this
and launch a nuclear strike, -
7:46 - 7:51potentially setting in motion
the annihilation of the human race. -
7:54 - 7:55Wow.
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7:56 - 7:59This doesn't have to be
our reality, though, and in fact, -
8:00 - 8:03in a number of other countries
that have nuclear weapons, it's not, -
8:03 - 8:06including countries
that are not democracies. -
8:08 - 8:10We created this system. We can change it.
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8:11 - 8:14And there's actually a movement
underway to do so. -
8:14 - 8:17So this leads me to my third question:
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8:17 - 8:21"What do your elected officials
know about nuclear weapons, -
8:21 - 8:24and what types of decisions
are they likely to take on your behalf?" -
8:25 - 8:29Well, Congress has
a very important role to play -
8:29 - 8:33in oversight of and interrogating
US nuclear weapons policy. -
8:33 - 8:36They can decide what to fund,
what not to fund, -
8:36 - 8:37and they represent you.
-
8:39 - 8:42Now unfortunately,
since the end of the Cold War, -
8:42 - 8:45we've seen a real decline
in the level of understanding, -
8:45 - 8:48on Capitol Hill, about these issues.
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8:48 - 8:52While we are starting to see
some terrific new champions emerge, -
8:52 - 8:55the reality is that the general
lack of awareness -
8:55 - 8:56is highly concerning,
-
8:56 - 9:00given that these people need to make
critically important decisions. -
9:02 - 9:03To make matters worse,
-
9:03 - 9:07the political partisanship
that currently grips Washington -
9:07 - 9:09also affects this issue.
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9:10 - 9:12This wasn't always the case, though.
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9:12 - 9:15At the end of the Cold War,
members from both sides of the aisle -
9:15 - 9:19had a really good understanding about
the nuclear challenges we were facing -
9:19 - 9:22and worked together
on cooperative programs. -
9:23 - 9:26They recognized
that nuclear risk reduction -
9:26 - 9:30was far too important to allow it
to succumb to political partisanship. -
9:31 - 9:33They created programs
-
9:33 - 9:36such as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative
Threat Reduction Program, -
9:36 - 9:38which sought to lock down and eliminate
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9:38 - 9:41vulnerable nuclear material
in the former Soviet Union. -
9:43 - 9:47So we need to return to this era
of bipartisanship, -
9:47 - 9:49mutual problem-solving
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9:49 - 9:53that's based on understanding
and awareness about the challenges we face -
9:53 - 9:55and the real nuclear dangers.
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9:56 - 9:58And that's where you come in.
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9:58 - 10:00Public pressure is important.
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10:01 - 10:04Leaders need a constituent base to act.
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10:04 - 10:07So create that constituent base,
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10:07 - 10:10by asking them some simple questions.
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10:10 - 10:14Ask them, "What do you know
about nuclear weapons?" -
10:14 - 10:16"Do you have a nuclear expert
on your staff? -
10:17 - 10:20Or, if not, do you know
somebody you could refer to -
10:20 - 10:22if you need to make
an important decision?" -
10:23 - 10:25Start to find out what they believe
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10:25 - 10:28and whether it aligns
with your own views and values. -
10:28 - 10:33Ask them, "How would you choose
to spend US national treasure? -
10:34 - 10:36On a new nuclear arms race
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10:36 - 10:39or another national security priority,
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10:39 - 10:42such as cybersecurity or climate change?"
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10:42 - 10:46Ask them, "Are you willing
to put aside partisanship -
10:46 - 10:51to address this existential threat
that affects my survival -
10:51 - 10:53and your constituents' survival?"
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10:54 - 10:59Now, people will tell you nuclear policy
is far too difficult to understand -
10:59 - 11:03and complexed and nuanced
for the general public to understand, -
11:03 - 11:04let alone debate.
-
11:04 - 11:07After all, this is "national security."
-
11:08 - 11:09There needs to be secrets.
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11:11 - 11:13Don't let that put you off.
-
11:13 - 11:14We debate all sorts of issues
-
11:14 - 11:17that are critically important
to our lives -- -
11:17 - 11:19why should nuclear weapons
be any different? -
11:19 - 11:22We debate health care,
education, the environment. -
11:22 - 11:25Surely congressional oversight,
-
11:26 - 11:30civic participation that are
such hallmarks of US democracy, -
11:30 - 11:32surely they apply here.
-
11:33 - 11:37After all, these are cases of life
and death that we're talking about. -
11:38 - 11:40And we won't all agree,
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11:40 - 11:44but whether or not you believe
nuclear weapons keep us safe -
11:44 - 11:47or that nuclear weapons are a liability,
-
11:47 - 11:53I urge you to put aside
partisan, ideological issues -
11:53 - 11:55and listen to each other.
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11:56 - 12:01So I'll tell you now what I didn't have
the guts to tell my friends at the time. -
12:01 - 12:04No, you're not safe --
-
12:04 - 12:06not just because of North Korea.
-
12:07 - 12:10But there is something
you can do about it. -
12:11 - 12:15Demand that your elected representatives
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12:15 - 12:18can give you answers to your questions,
-
12:18 - 12:20and answers that you can live with
-
12:20 - 12:23and that billions of others
can live with too. -
12:25 - 12:26And if they can't,
-
12:26 - 12:28stay on them until they can.
-
12:29 - 12:31And if that doesn't work,
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12:31 - 12:36find others, who are able
to represent your views. -
12:37 - 12:42Because by doing so, we can begin
to change the answer to the question -
12:42 - 12:44"Am I safe?"
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12:45 - 12:49(Applause)
- Title:
- 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons
- Speaker:
- Emma Belcher
- Description:
-
There are more than 10,000 nuclear weapons in existence today, each one capable of causing immense destruction. Why don’t we talk about this threat as much as some other major issues? In this practical talk, nuclear security expert Emma Belcher shares three questions you can ask your elected officials to gain a better understanding of nuclear weapons and the measures we need to stay safe.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 13:02
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
marialadias edited English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene accepted English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons |