0:00:01.496,0:00:04.391
So you know when[br]you're doubled over in pain

0:00:04.415,0:00:06.613
and you're wondering, is it your appendix

0:00:06.637,0:00:08.353
or maybe you ate something funny?

0:00:09.472,0:00:13.185
Well, when that happens to me,[br]I call my friend Sasha --

0:00:13.209,0:00:14.376
Sasha is a doctor --

0:00:14.400,0:00:17.096
and I say, "Should I rush[br]to the nearest emergency room

0:00:17.120,0:00:18.491
in a panic?

0:00:18.515,0:00:21.813
Or am I OK to relax and just wait it out?"

0:00:21.837,0:00:24.900
Yes, I am that annoying friend.

0:00:27.011,0:00:29.416
But in September 2017,

0:00:29.440,0:00:32.726
friends of mine were suddenly calling me

0:00:32.750,0:00:34.305
for my professional opinion.

0:00:35.868,0:00:37.630
And no, I'm not a doctor,

0:00:37.654,0:00:40.209
but they were asking me[br]questions of life and death.

0:00:41.444,0:00:44.519
So what was going on in September of 2017?

0:00:45.370,0:00:49.806
Well, North Korea was suddenly[br]and scarily all over the news.

0:00:50.752,0:00:52.997
Kim Jong-un had tested missiles

0:00:53.021,0:00:56.943
potentially capable of hitting[br]major US cities,

0:00:56.967,0:01:00.862
and President Trump had responded[br]with tweets of "fire and fury."

0:01:02.097,0:01:06.161
And there was real concern[br]that tensions would escalate

0:01:06.185,0:01:07.661
to a potential war

0:01:07.685,0:01:09.993
or even nuclear weapons use.

0:01:11.067,0:01:13.821
So what my friends[br]were calling and asking was:

0:01:13.845,0:01:17.297
Should they panic or were the OK to relax?

0:01:18.615,0:01:22.813
But really, they were asking me[br]a fundamental question:

0:01:24.440,0:01:26.059
"Am I safe?"

0:01:28.396,0:01:32.872
While I was reassuring them that,[br]no, they didn't need to worry just yet,

0:01:32.896,0:01:35.015
the irony of their question dawned on me.

0:01:36.094,0:01:39.043
What they hadn't really thought about

0:01:39.067,0:01:42.814
is that we've all been living[br]under a much larger cloud for decades --

0:01:42.838,0:01:44.964
potentially a mushroom cloud --

0:01:44.988,0:01:46.748
without giving it much thought.

0:01:48.114,0:01:50.194
Now it's not surprising[br]that friends of mine

0:01:50.218,0:01:53.249
and many others like them[br]don't know much about nuclear weapons

0:01:53.273,0:01:54.813
and don't think about them.

0:01:54.837,0:01:57.756
After all, the end of the Cold War,

0:01:57.780,0:02:01.611
the United States and Russia,[br]tension abated,

0:02:01.635,0:02:03.507
we started dismantling nuclear weapons,

0:02:03.531,0:02:06.554
and they started to become[br]a relic of the past.

0:02:07.177,0:02:10.329
Generations didn't have to grow up[br]with the specter of nuclear war

0:02:10.353,0:02:11.558
hanging over their heads.

0:02:13.367,0:02:16.884
And there other reasons people don't like[br]to think about nuclear weapons.

0:02:16.908,0:02:19.358
It's scary, overwhelming.

0:02:19.382,0:02:20.725
I get it.

0:02:20.749,0:02:23.916
Sometimes I wish I could have chosen[br]a cheerier field to study.

0:02:23.940,0:02:24.986
(Laughter)

0:02:25.010,0:02:27.240
Perhaps tax law would[br]have been more uplifting.

0:02:27.264,0:02:28.755
(Laughter)

0:02:30.557,0:02:32.812
But in addition to that,

0:02:32.836,0:02:36.224
people have so many other things[br]to think about in their busy lives,

0:02:36.248,0:02:39.034
and they'd much prefer to think[br]about something over which

0:02:39.058,0:02:41.710
they feel they have[br]some semblance of control,

0:02:41.734,0:02:45.273
and they assume that other people,[br]smarter than they on this topic,

0:02:45.297,0:02:47.726
are working away to keep us all safe.

0:02:49.317,0:02:52.658
And then, there are other reasons[br]people don't talk about this,

0:02:52.682,0:02:55.468
and one is because we, as nuclear experts,

0:02:55.492,0:02:58.863
use a whole lot of convoluted[br]jargon and terminology

0:02:58.887,0:03:00.482
to talk about these issues:

0:03:01.227,0:03:04.834
CVID, ICBM, JCPOA.

0:03:05.782,0:03:08.909
It's really inaccessible[br]for a lot of people.

0:03:09.678,0:03:13.312
And, in reality, it actually sometimes[br]I think makes us numb

0:03:13.336,0:03:15.614
to what we're really talking about here.

0:03:16.843,0:03:19.494
And what we are really talking about here

0:03:19.518,0:03:20.669
is the fact that,

0:03:20.693,0:03:23.933
while we've made dramatic reductions[br]in the number of nuclear weapons

0:03:23.957,0:03:25.344
since the Cold War,

0:03:25.368,0:03:30.693
right now, there are almost 15,000[br]in the world today.

0:03:31.806,0:03:33.463
15,000.

0:03:35.709,0:03:40.403
The United States and Russia have[br]over 90 percent of these nuclear weapons.

0:03:41.034,0:03:44.422
If you're wondering, these are[br]the countries that have the rest.

0:03:45.303,0:03:47.074
But they have far fewer,

0:03:47.098,0:03:50.272
ranging in the sort of[br]300-ish range and below.

0:03:53.112,0:03:56.678
Adding to this situation is the fact[br]that we have new technologies

0:03:56.702,0:03:59.154
that potentially bring us new challenges.

0:03:59.791,0:04:05.250
Could you imagine, one day,[br]countries like ours and others

0:04:05.274,0:04:09.932
potentially ceding decisions[br]about a nuclear strike to a robot,

0:04:10.688,0:04:12.789
based on algorithms?

0:04:12.813,0:04:15.432
And what data do they use[br]to inform those algorithms?

0:04:16.438,0:04:18.145
This is pretty terrifying.

0:04:19.098,0:04:23.820
So adding to this are terrorism potential,

0:04:23.844,0:04:26.710
cyberattacks, miscalculation,[br]misunderstanding.

0:04:26.734,0:04:30.249
The list of nuclear nightmares[br]tends to grow longer by the day.

0:04:30.273,0:04:33.011
And there are a number[br]of former officials,

0:04:33.035,0:04:34.774
as well as experts,

0:04:34.798,0:04:38.051
who worry that right now,[br]we're in greater danger

0:04:38.075,0:04:41.304
than we were in various points[br]in the Cold War.

0:04:42.759,0:04:44.197
So this is scary.

0:04:44.877,0:04:46.179
What can we do?

0:04:46.958,0:04:48.108
Well, thankfully,

0:04:48.132,0:04:49.298
["Duck and Cover"]

0:04:49.322,0:04:52.695
we don't have to rely[br]on the advice from the 1950s.

0:04:52.719,0:04:53.727
(Laughter)

0:04:53.751,0:04:55.736
We can take some control,

0:04:55.760,0:04:57.504
and the way we do that

0:04:57.528,0:05:00.759
is by starting to ask[br]some fundamental questions

0:05:00.783,0:05:02.787
about the status quo

0:05:02.811,0:05:05.535
and whether we are happy[br]with the way it is.

0:05:06.529,0:05:08.735
We need to begin asking[br]questions of ourselves

0:05:08.759,0:05:10.503
and of our elected officials,

0:05:10.527,0:05:12.790
and I'd like to share[br]three with you today.

0:05:14.798,0:05:16.996
The first one is,

0:05:17.020,0:05:21.099
"How much nuclear risk[br]are you willing to take or tolerate?"

0:05:22.805,0:05:26.701
Right now, nuclear policy[br]depends on deterrence theory.

0:05:27.336,0:05:29.058
Developed in the 1950s,

0:05:29.082,0:05:31.750
the idea is that one[br]country's nuclear weapons

0:05:31.774,0:05:34.761
prevents another country[br]from using theirs.

0:05:34.785,0:05:38.511
So you nuke me, I nuke you,

0:05:38.535,0:05:39.828
and we both lose.

0:05:40.794,0:05:43.474
So in a way, there's a stalemate.

0:05:43.498,0:05:46.028
No one uses their weapons,[br]and we're all safe.

0:05:47.487,0:05:52.686
But this theory has real questions.

0:05:52.710,0:05:55.511
There are experts[br]who challenge this theory

0:05:55.535,0:05:58.662
and wonder: Does it really work[br]this way in practice?

0:05:59.516,0:06:04.492
It certainly doesn't allow[br]for mistakes or miscalculations.

0:06:05.918,0:06:07.968
Now, I don't know about you,

0:06:07.992,0:06:13.110
but I feel pretty uncomfortable[br]gambling my future survival,

0:06:13.134,0:06:16.659
yours, and our future generations',

0:06:16.683,0:06:19.302
on a theory that is questionable

0:06:20.275,0:06:22.706
and doesn't allow any room for a mistake.

0:06:24.560,0:06:26.506
It makes me even more uncomfortable

0:06:27.386,0:06:30.244
to be threatening the evaporation

0:06:30.268,0:06:32.799
of millions of people[br]on the other side of the Earth.

0:06:34.267,0:06:37.379
Surely we can do better for ourselves,

0:06:37.403,0:06:40.967
drawing on our ingenuity[br]to solve complex problems,

0:06:40.991,0:06:43.008
as we have in the past.

0:06:43.032,0:06:45.705
After all, this is a man-made,

0:06:45.729,0:06:46.950
human-made --

0:06:46.974,0:06:49.497
I shouldn't say "man,"[br]because women were involved --

0:06:49.521,0:06:51.157
a human-made problem.

0:06:52.669,0:06:55.657
We have human solutions[br]that should be possible.

0:06:57.238,0:07:01.038
So, next question: "Who do you think[br]should make nuclear decisions?"

0:07:02.221,0:07:06.834
Right now, in this democracy,[br]in the United States,

0:07:06.858,0:07:08.635
one person

0:07:09.588,0:07:13.040
gets to decide whether or not[br]to launch a nuclear strike.

0:07:14.691,0:07:16.596
They don't have to consult anybody.

0:07:18.108,0:07:19.984
So that's the president.

0:07:20.742,0:07:23.639
He or she can decide --

0:07:23.663,0:07:25.798
within a very limited amount of time,

0:07:25.822,0:07:29.155
under great pressure, potentially,[br]depending on the scenario,

0:07:30.204,0:07:33.649
maybe based on a miscalculation[br]or a misunderstanding --

0:07:34.197,0:07:37.046
they can decide the fate[br]of millions of lives:

0:07:37.805,0:07:40.475
yours, mine, our community's.

0:07:42.173,0:07:46.303
And they can do this[br]and launch a nuclear strike,

0:07:46.327,0:07:50.908
potentially setting in motion[br]the annihilation of the human race.

0:07:53.566,0:07:54.716
Wow.

0:07:56.392,0:07:59.494
This doesn't have to be[br]our reality, though, and in fact,

0:07:59.518,0:08:02.838
in a number of other countries[br]that have nuclear weapons, it's not,

0:08:02.862,0:08:05.582
including countries[br]that are not democracies.

0:08:07.595,0:08:09.841
We created this system. We can change it.

0:08:10.690,0:08:13.546
And there's actually a movement[br]underway to do so.

0:08:13.991,0:08:16.810
So this leads me to my third question:

0:08:16.834,0:08:20.602
"What do your elected officials[br]know about nuclear weapons,

0:08:20.626,0:08:24.119
and what types of decisions[br]are they likely to take on your behalf?"

0:08:25.416,0:08:28.606
Well, Congress has[br]a very important role to play

0:08:28.630,0:08:32.900
in oversight of and interrogating[br]US nuclear weapons policy.

0:08:33.397,0:08:35.993
They can decide what to fund,[br]what not to fund,

0:08:36.017,0:08:37.388
and they represent you.

0:08:38.515,0:08:41.524
Now unfortunately,[br]since the end of the Cold War,

0:08:41.548,0:08:45.037
we've seen a real decline[br]in the level of understanding,

0:08:45.061,0:08:47.687
on Capitol Hill, about these issues.

0:08:47.711,0:08:51.759
While we are starting to see[br]some terrific new champions emerge,

0:08:51.783,0:08:54.632
the reality is that the general[br]lack of awareness

0:08:54.656,0:08:56.228
is highly concerning,

0:08:56.252,0:09:00.124
given that these people need to make[br]critically important decisions.

0:09:02.076,0:09:03.227
To make matters worse,

0:09:03.251,0:09:06.979
the political partisanship[br]that currently grips Washington

0:09:07.003,0:09:08.591
also affects this issue.

0:09:09.814,0:09:11.577
This wasn't always the case, though.

0:09:11.601,0:09:14.846
At the end of the Cold War,[br]members from both sides of the aisle

0:09:14.870,0:09:18.997
had a really good understanding about[br]the nuclear challenges we were facing

0:09:19.021,0:09:22.053
and worked together[br]on cooperative programs.

0:09:22.847,0:09:25.982
They recognized[br]that nuclear risk reduction

0:09:26.006,0:09:30.196
was far too important to allow it[br]to succumb to political partisanship.

0:09:31.350,0:09:32.548
They created programs

0:09:32.572,0:09:35.895
such as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative[br]Threat Reduction Program,

0:09:35.919,0:09:38.438
which sought to lock down and eliminate

0:09:38.462,0:09:41.445
vulnerable nuclear material[br]in the former Soviet Union.

0:09:42.828,0:09:46.788
So we need to return to this era[br]of bipartisanship,

0:09:46.812,0:09:49.462
mutual problem-solving

0:09:49.486,0:09:53.407
that's based on understanding[br]and awareness about the challenges we face

0:09:53.431,0:09:55.399
and the real nuclear dangers.

0:09:56.273,0:09:58.103
And that's where you come in.

0:09:58.469,0:10:00.311
Public pressure is important.

0:10:01.018,0:10:04.270
Leaders need a constituent base to act.

0:10:04.294,0:10:06.724
So create that constituent base,

0:10:06.748,0:10:09.713
by asking them some simple questions.

0:10:10.325,0:10:13.831
Ask them, "What do you know[br]about nuclear weapons?"

0:10:13.855,0:10:16.498
"Do you have a nuclear expert[br]on your staff?

0:10:16.522,0:10:19.759
Or, if not, do you know[br]somebody you could refer to

0:10:19.783,0:10:21.989
if you need to make[br]an important decision?"

0:10:22.713,0:10:24.972
Start to find out what they believe

0:10:24.996,0:10:27.798
and whether it aligns[br]with your own views and values.

0:10:28.450,0:10:32.637
Ask them, "How would you choose[br]to spend US national treasure?

0:10:34.266,0:10:36.369
On a new nuclear arms race

0:10:36.393,0:10:38.601
or another national security priority,

0:10:38.625,0:10:42.008
such as cybersecurity or climate change?"

0:10:42.032,0:10:45.959
Ask them, "Are you willing[br]to put aside partisanship

0:10:45.983,0:10:50.904
to address this existential threat[br]that affects my survival

0:10:50.928,0:10:52.643
and your constituents' survival?"

0:10:54.305,0:10:58.940
Now, people will tell you nuclear policy[br]is far too difficult to understand

0:10:58.964,0:11:02.844
and complexed and nuanced[br]for the general public to understand,

0:11:02.868,0:11:04.463
let alone debate.

0:11:04.487,0:11:07.083
After all, this is "national security."

0:11:07.900,0:11:09.391
There needs to be secrets.

0:11:10.677,0:11:12.581
Don't let that put you off.

0:11:12.605,0:11:14.416
We debate all sorts of issues

0:11:14.440,0:11:16.701
that are critically important[br]to our lives --

0:11:16.725,0:11:19.113
why should nuclear weapons[br]be any different?

0:11:19.137,0:11:22.153
We debate health care,[br]education, the environment.

0:11:22.177,0:11:25.195
Surely congressional oversight,

0:11:25.605,0:11:29.615
civic participation that are[br]such hallmarks of US democracy,

0:11:29.639,0:11:31.590
surely they apply here.

0:11:32.573,0:11:36.922
After all, these are cases of life[br]and death that we're talking about.

0:11:38.021,0:11:40.295
And we won't all agree,

0:11:40.319,0:11:43.993
but whether or not you believe[br]nuclear weapons keep us safe

0:11:44.017,0:11:47.207
or that nuclear weapons are a liability,

0:11:47.231,0:11:52.715
I urge you to put aside[br]partisan, ideological issues

0:11:52.739,0:11:54.695
and listen to each other.

0:11:56.254,0:12:00.643
So I'll tell you now what I didn't have[br]the guts to tell my friends at the time.

0:12:01.483,0:12:03.737
No, you're not safe --

0:12:04.273,0:12:05.988
not just because of North Korea.

0:12:06.798,0:12:09.616
But there is something[br]you can do about it.

0:12:11.266,0:12:14.743
Demand that your elected representatives

0:12:14.767,0:12:17.774
can give you answers to your questions,

0:12:17.798,0:12:20.465
and answers that you can live with

0:12:20.489,0:12:23.099
and that billions of others[br]can live with too.

0:12:24.644,0:12:25.925
And if they can't,

0:12:25.949,0:12:28.186
stay on them until they can.

0:12:29.284,0:12:31.042
And if that doesn't work,

0:12:31.066,0:12:35.609
find others, who are able[br]to represent your views.

0:12:36.895,0:12:42.338
Because by doing so, we can begin[br]to change the answer to the question

0:12:42.362,0:12:43.512
"Am I safe?"

0:12:45.111,0:12:49.095
(Applause)