https:/.../2019-04-10_thegovernor.mp4

When Greg Abbott was elected
governor of Texas in 2014,

many Texas political observers
wondered what Abbott's

governorship should look like
after Rick Perry had spent

a record 14 years in the office.

The consensus was that Perry
left the office in a uniquely

influential position as a result
of his long tenure.

Added to the usual uncertainty
that accompanies any governor

in his or her first term

was the question of just
how much of Perry's

accumulated power would
carry over to Abbott.

Abbott's decisive re-election
in 2018 puts to rest most

of the questions about his
ability to effectively occupy

the office.

In this lecture, we'll discuss
how governor Abbott has

established himself in the
office by building on his

popularity among republican
voters and managing his

position in the relationship
with the two other key

elected officials that have
served during his term,

the lieutenant governor
and the Speaker of the House.

We'll conclude by looking
at how the results of the 2018

elections and the change
in the speakership

likely worked in concert
to strengthen his political position.

Abbott's standing among
Republican primary voters

has proven to be his most important
political asset.

And he's remained focused
for the most part

on maintaining it.

His success in this effort
is evident in his strong

approval numbers among
his key constituencies.

Abbott has definitely followed
Rick Perry's path in his courting

of conservative voters.

He has taken public
positions and worked with

other leaders on issues
that Republican constituencies

care a lot about,

including immigration and
border security,

while pressing the legislature
on other issues that motivate

GOP voters like property
tax reform.

Republican voters have
rewarded him with the highest

approval ratings among
statewide elected officials

including Lieutenant Governor
Dan Patrick and US Senator

Ted Cruz who themselves
are favorites of grassroots

conservative activists.

In the February 2019,
UT Texas Tribune poll,

83% of republicans approved
of the job Abbott was doing.

Including 62% who approved
strongly.

His ratings were even higher
in the conservative

quarters of the party.

96% of self-described extremely
conservative Texans approved

of the job he was doing.

87% strongly approved.

Given this, it should come
as no surprise that Abbott

faced no serious challengers
in the 2018 Republican primary

and was the most successful
Texas Republican

in the 2018 general election.

Abbott won re-election
by 14 percentage points.

While this margin is about
six points less than when he

was first elected in 2014,
he still won by the largest

margin of any of the major
candidates on the statewide

Republican slate.

Lieutenant Governor
Dan Patrick won by only

about four points.

And Attorney General
Ken Paxton by about

the same margin as Patrick.

Abbott thus entered the 2019
legislative session much

more secure in his position
with voters than any other

statewide official.

Most notably more secure
than Lieutenant Governor Patrick.

Which brings us to Dan Patrick.

One of the factors contributing
to early questions about the

prospects for Abbott's reset of the
governorship

was the impact of Dan Patrick's
expected effort to restore

the power of lieutenant governorship.

A historically strong position
in the Texas political system

during Abbott's term.

Abbott's popularity with the
Republican base not withstanding,

perhaps the most consequential
aspect of Abbott's first term

as governor was the necessity of
managing the presence

of an aggressive and influential
lieutenant governor.

Just as Abbott spent his first
term trying to maintain

some of the power that his
predecessor amassed during

his many terms in office,

Patrick spent the time period
seeking to re-establish

the power of the office
of the lieutenant governor.

Abbott's relationship with Patrick
is one leg of the triangular relationship

among the state's top three
political leaders.

Sometimes called the Big Three,

but it's proven more complex than
the relationships Perry faced.

Perry and the lieutenant governor
that served through his terms,

David Dewhurst, were rarely rivals.

But Patrick signaled early on that
he was eager to shape the

state's political agenda.

His aggressiveness led to
immediate rumblings

that Patrick's ambition
was to be governor.

Thus for much of the
first two sessions in which

they occupied the top
two spots in Texas government,

each seemed to be making
decisions with one eye on the other.

Their public image was generally
cooperative but insiders knew

that each was wary of the other
even as they pursued

similar political goals.

The first term dynamics among
the big three were not

just about Abbott and Patrick,
not by a long shot.

In particular, Abbott had to
manage his own place

amidst the increasing
acrimony between

Patrick and then-Speaker
of the House Joe Straus.

Strained relations between
Lieutenant Governor Patrick

and Speaker Straus
go back to Patrick's time

as a state senator and a
high-profile favorite of

newly ascended Tea Party groups.

Many of these Patrick allies
work continuously to defeat Straus

during his tenure as speaker.

Straus, a more traditional
pro-business Republican

was not especially interested
in the socially conservative agenda,

Patrick championed in his
first term in an apparent

effort to maintain the support
or reward the allegiance of

socially conservative GOP
primary voters.

The protracted politics of
efforts to limit transgender access

to public restrooms during
the 2017 session

provides a good example of
this dynamic.

Patrick championed the issue
and rallied social conservatives

to his cause,

what became known as the
bathroom bill.

Even as business interests,
especially large corporations,

opposed the measure on the
grounds that it was bad

for the state's business climate
and for their bottom line.

Straus publicly opposed
the bill and instructed

the legislation at every
opportunity.

It ultimately failed the pass
even after the governor

called the special session
as part of an effort not to

be outflanked on the
issue with conservative voters

by the lieutenant governor.

For the most part,
Abbott, publicly at least

attempted to stay above
the Patrick/Straus conflict.

Behind the scenes, relations
were strained among all three.

When cooperation among the
three leaders did emerge,

it always seemed provisional.

A pattern emerged, depending
on the situation,

Abbott could use Straus as both
unspoken ally and public scapegoat

when it came to managing his
position vis a vis Patrick.

The bathroom bill was the
epitome of this dynamic.

Abbott was a reluctant
backer of the legislation

given business opposition.

He pushed the issue in order
not to be seen by social

conservatives in the party
as less committed to their issues

than Patrick.

But the governor did so knowing
that if Straus prevented the legislation

from passing. Abbott could publicly
blame him even if he

was glad that it failed.

This is exactly how it played out.

With Straus now out of the mix,

Abbott's position vis a vis
the lieutenant governor

is likely to remain, shall we
say, complicated.

Straus' replacement,
Angleton Republican Dennis Bonnen

enters the speakership with a much
more solid base among Republicans

and a conservative voting
record as a long time house member.

This will make it harder for either
Abbott or Patrick to portray him

as insufficiently conservative
in order to use him as foil

or scapegoat.

The lieutenant governor will have
less ability to attempt to

undermine the speaker by
using discontented conservatives

in the house to press his agenda
as he did during Straus' term.

Many conservatives supported
Bonnen's speakership

and many were rewarded with
good committee assignments.

Patrick emerges less influential
and then less politically powerful.

Again, especially given his
close re-election.

An equally important factor
in Abbott's post election position

is that the results of the 2018 election
left Abbott politically stronger

in regards to Patrick.

As I said earlier, Abbott won
by a much larger margin

than Patrick in 2018.

But in addition to this
display of Abbott's superior

standing with voters,
he also cemented

relationships with many
Republicans by virtue

of his political fundraising skill.

One of Abbott's less widely
appreciated strengths is that

he has always been a very
effective fundraiser.

An asset that predates his
election as governor.

During the 2017-2018
election cycle,

Abbott out-raised his Democratic
challenger Lupe Valdez,

44.3 million dollars to just
1.9 million.

The largest gap between
major party candidates in

state history.

Between January 1995
and January 2019,

Abbott raised a
166.5 million dollars

in political contributions.

125 million of that was
raised between January 2013

and January 2019 to support
his gubernatorial campaigns.

The highest six year figure
in state history.

With such deep pockets,
Abbott was able to amend

an electoral effort that helped
candidates up and down the ballot

in a very tough election year.

This was not lost on Republican
candidates in close races

who Abbott supported both
materially and with endorsements.

In 2018, Governor Abbott was
a good friend to have

if you were a Republican candidate.

And once the election was
over, Abbott had a lot of

friends who owed him in
the legislature.

Patrick to be sure remains
well liked by Republican voters.

Though his job approval ratings
among Texas Republicans

remained eight points lower
than the governor's in the

February 2019 UT Texas Tribune poll.

While this is not a large gap,

Abbott's strong approval ratings
are 14 percentage points

higher than Patrick's.

Overall, managing the limitations
of the office while first term

governor meant the inevitable
transition in the centrality of

the office and the state's politics
compared to the Perry years.

Abbott's first term situation
was much closer to the

norm of the system created
by the Texas constitution.

No one should be too surprised
that the governorship

looked different during Abbott's
first term

than it did in Perry's last

when Perry was at the apex
of his political power.

However, the combination of
Abbott's record setting

fundraising, his decisive victory
in 2018, Patrick's much closer race

and the advent of a new
speaker of house

have all had the affect of strengthening
Abbott's position in his second term.

Abbott still has to contend with
the constitutional limitations,

the plural executive places on
the governorship.

But like his predecessor,
he has maximized the office's

potential for cultivating public
support.

And brought his own particular
assets to the office.

For the most part,
questions about Abbott's

ability to fully occupy the
enhanced governorship

have been asked and answered.