When Greg Abbott was elected governor of Texas in 2014,
many Texas political observers wondered what Abbott's
governorship should look like after Rick Perry had spent
a record 14 years in the office.
The consensus was that Perry left the office in a uniquely
influential position as a result of his long tenure.
Added to the usual uncertainty that accompanies any governor
in his or her first term
was the question of just how much of Perry's
accumulated power would carry over to Abbott.
Abbott's decisive re-election in 2018 puts to rest most
of the questions about his ability to effectively occupy
the office.
In this lecture, we'll discuss how governor Abbott has
established himself in the office by building on his
popularity among republican voters and managing his
position in the relationship with the two other key
elected officials that have served during his term,
the lieutenant governor and the Speaker of the House.
We'll conclude by looking at how the results of the 2018
elections and the change in the speakership
likely worked in concert to strengthen his political position.
Abbott's standing among Republican primary voters
has proven to be his most important political asset.
And he's remained focused for the most part
on maintaining it.
His success in this effort is evident in his strong
approval numbers among his key constituencies.
Abbott has definitely followed Rick Perry's path in his courting
of conservative voters.
He has taken public positions and worked with
other leaders on issues that Republican constituencies
care a lot about,
including immigration and border security,
while pressing the legislature on other issues that motivate
GOP voters like property tax reform.
Republican voters have rewarded him with the highest
approval ratings among statewide elected officials
including Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and US Senator
Ted Cruz who themselves are favorites of grassroots
conservative activists.
In the February 2019, UT Texas Tribune poll,
83% of republicans approved of the job Abbott was doing.
Including 62% who approved strongly.
His ratings were even higher in the conservative
quarters of the party.
96% of self-described extremely conservative Texans approved
of the job he was doing.
87% strongly approved.
Given this, it should come as no surprise that Abbott
faced no serious challengers in the 2018 Republican primary
and was the most successful Texas Republican
in the 2018 general election.
Abbott won re-election by 14 percentage points.
While this margin is about six points less than when he
was first elected in 2014, he still won by the largest
margin of any of the major candidates on the statewide
Republican slate.
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick won by only
about four points.
And Attorney General Ken Paxton by about
the same margin as Patrick.
Abbott thus entered the 2019 legislative session much
more secure in his position with voters than any other
statewide official.
Most notably more secure than Lieutenant Governor Patrick.
Which brings us to Dan Patrick.
One of the factors contributing to early questions about the
prospects for Abbott's reset of the governorship
was the impact of Dan Patrick's expected effort to restore
the power of lieutenant governorship.
A historically strong position in the Texas political system
during Abbott's term.
Abbott's popularity with the Republican base not withstanding,
perhaps the most consequential aspect of Abbott's first term
as governor was the necessity of managing the presence
of an aggressive and influential lieutenant governor.
Just as Abbott spent his first term trying to maintain
some of the power that his predecessor amassed during
his many terms in office,
Patrick spent the time period seeking to re-establish
the power of the office of the lieutenant governor.
Abbott's relationship with Patrick is one leg of the triangular relationship
among the state's top three political leaders.
Sometimes called the Big Three,
but it's proven more complex than the relationships Perry faced.
Perry and the lieutenant governor that served through his terms,
David Dewhurst, were rarely rivals.
But Patrick signaled early on that he was eager to shape the
state's political agenda.
His aggressiveness led to immediate rumblings
that Patrick's ambition was to be governor.
Thus for much of the first two sessions in which
they occupied the top two spots in Texas government,
each seemed to be making decisions with one eye on the other.
Their public image was generally cooperative but insiders knew
that each was wary of the other even as they pursued
similar political goals.
The first term dynamics among the big three were not
just about Abbott and Patrick, not by a long shot.
In particular, Abbott had to manage his own place
amidst the increasing acrimony between
Patrick and then-Speaker of the House Joe Straus.
Strained relations between Lieutenant Governor Patrick
and Speaker Straus go back to Patrick's time
as a state senator and a high-profile favorite of
newly ascended Tea Party groups.
Many of these Patrick allies work continuously to defeat Straus
during his tenure as speaker.
Straus, a more traditional pro-business Republican
was not especially interested in the socially conservative agenda,
Patrick championed in his first term in an apparent
effort to maintain the support or reward the allegiance of
socially conservative GOP primary voters.
The protracted politics of efforts to limit transgender access
to public restrooms during the 2017 session
provides a good example of this dynamic.
Patrick championed the issue and rallied social conservatives
to his cause,
what became known as the bathroom bill.
Even as business interests, especially large corporations,
opposed the measure on the grounds that it was bad
for the state's business climate and for their bottom line.
Straus publicly opposed the bill and instructed
the legislation at every opportunity.
It ultimately failed the pass even after the governor
called the special session as part of an effort not to
be outflanked on the issue with conservative voters
by the lieutenant governor.
For the most part, Abbott, publicly at least
attempted to stay above the Patrick/Straus conflict.
Behind the scenes, relations were strained among all three.
When cooperation among the three leaders did emerge,
it always seemed provisional.
A pattern emerged, depending on the situation,
Abbott could use Straus as both unspoken ally and public scapegoat
when it came to managing his position vis a vis Patrick.
The bathroom bill was the epitome of this dynamic.
Abbott was a reluctant backer of the legislation
given business opposition.
He pushed the issue in order not to be seen by social
conservatives in the party as less committed to their issues
than Patrick.
But the governor did so knowing that if Straus prevented the legislation
from passing. Abbott could publicly blame him even if he
was glad that it failed.
This is exactly how it played out.
With Straus now out of the mix,
Abbott's position vis a vis the lieutenant governor
is likely to remain, shall we say, complicated.
Straus' replacement, Angleton Republican Dennis Bonnen
enters the speakership with a much more solid base among Republicans
and a conservative voting record as a long time house member.
This will make it harder for either Abbott or Patrick to portray him
as insufficiently conservative in order to use him as foil
or scapegoat.
The lieutenant governor will have less ability to attempt to
undermine the speaker by using discontented conservatives
in the house to press his agenda as he did during Straus' term.
Many conservatives supported Bonnen's speakership
and many were rewarded with good committee assignments.
Patrick emerges less influential and then less politically powerful.
Again, especially given his close re-election.
An equally important factor in Abbott's post election position
is that the results of the 2018 election left Abbott politically stronger
in regards to Patrick.
As I said earlier, Abbott won by a much larger margin
than Patrick in 2018.
But in addition to this display of Abbott's superior
standing with voters, he also cemented
relationships with many Republicans by virtue
of his political fundraising skill.
One of Abbott's less widely appreciated strengths is that
he has always been a very effective fundraiser.
An asset that predates his election as governor.
During the 2017-2018 election cycle,
Abbott out-raised his Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez,
44.3 million dollars to just 1.9 million.
The largest gap between major party candidates in
state history.
Between January 1995 and January 2019,
Abbott raised a 166.5 million dollars
in political contributions.
125 million of that was raised between January 2013
and January 2019 to support his gubernatorial campaigns.
The highest six year figure in state history.
With such deep pockets, Abbott was able to amend
an electoral effort that helped candidates up and down the ballot
in a very tough election year.
This was not lost on Republican candidates in close races
who Abbott supported both materially and with endorsements.
In 2018, Governor Abbott was a good friend to have
if you were a Republican candidate.
And once the election was over, Abbott had a lot of
friends who owed him in the legislature.
Patrick to be sure remains well liked by Republican voters.
Though his job approval ratings among Texas Republicans
remained eight points lower than the governor's in the
February 2019 UT Texas Tribune poll.
While this is not a large gap,
Abbott's strong approval ratings are 14 percentage points
higher than Patrick's.
Overall, managing the limitations of the office while first term
governor meant the inevitable transition in the centrality of
the office and the state's politics compared to the Perry years.
Abbott's first term situation was much closer to the
norm of the system created by the Texas constitution.
No one should be too surprised that the governorship
looked different during Abbott's first term
than it did in Perry's last
when Perry was at the apex of his political power.
However, the combination of Abbott's record setting
fundraising, his decisive victory in 2018, Patrick's much closer race
and the advent of a new speaker of house
have all had the affect of strengthening Abbott's position in his second term.
Abbott still has to contend with the constitutional limitations,
the plural executive places on the governorship.
But like his predecessor, he has maximized the office's
potential for cultivating public support.
And brought his own particular assets to the office.
For the most part, questions about Abbott's
ability to fully occupy the enhanced governorship
have been asked and answered.