0:00:06.580,0:00:10.283 When Greg Abbott was elected[br]governor of Texas in 2014, 0:00:10.283,0:00:12.850 many Texas political observers[br]wondered what Abbott's 0:00:12.850,0:00:15.373 governorship should look like[br]after Rick Perry had spent 0:00:15.373,0:00:17.814 a record 14 years in the office. 0:00:18.714,0:00:21.584 The consensus was that Perry[br]left the office in a uniquely 0:00:21.584,0:00:24.933 influential position as a result[br]of his long tenure. 0:00:25.750,0:00:28.894 Added to the usual uncertainty[br]that accompanies any governor 0:00:28.894,0:00:30.893 in his or her first term 0:00:30.893,0:00:32.866 was the question of just[br]how much of Perry's 0:00:32.866,0:00:35.859 accumulated power would[br]carry over to Abbott. 0:00:37.579,0:00:41.237 Abbott's decisive re-election[br]in 2018 puts to rest most 0:00:41.237,0:00:44.182 of the questions about his[br]ability to effectively occupy 0:00:44.182,0:00:44.833 the office. 0:00:45.713,0:00:48.218 In this lecture, we'll discuss[br]how governor Abbott has 0:00:48.218,0:00:50.893 established himself in the [br]office by building on his 0:00:50.893,0:00:54.482 popularity among republican[br]voters and managing his 0:00:54.482,0:00:57.131 position in the relationship[br]with the two other key 0:00:57.131,0:01:00.482 elected officials that have[br]served during his term, 0:01:00.482,0:01:02.979 the lieutenant governor [br]and the Speaker of the House. 0:01:03.858,0:01:06.616 We'll conclude by looking[br]at how the results of the 2018 0:01:06.616,0:01:09.170 elections and the change[br]in the speakership 0:01:09.170,0:01:12.977 likely worked in concert[br]to strengthen his political position. 0:01:14.145,0:01:16.780 Abbott's standing among [br]Republican primary voters 0:01:16.780,0:01:19.684 has proven to be his most important[br]political asset. 0:01:19.684,0:01:21.950 And he's remained focused[br]for the most part 0:01:21.950,0:01:22.871 on maintaining it. 0:01:23.635,0:01:25.935 His success in this effort[br]is evident in his strong 0:01:25.935,0:01:28.626 approval numbers among [br]his key constituencies. 0:01:29.836,0:01:32.740 Abbott has definitely followed[br]Rick Perry's path in his courting 0:01:32.740,0:01:34.208 of conservative voters. 0:01:35.012,0:01:37.294 He has taken public[br]positions and worked with 0:01:37.294,0:01:39.991 other leaders on issues [br]that Republican constituencies 0:01:39.991,0:01:41.033 care a lot about, 0:01:41.445,0:01:43.441 including immigration and[br]border security, 0:01:44.005,0:01:46.737 while pressing the legislature[br]on other issues that motivate 0:01:46.737,0:01:49.883 GOP voters like property [br]tax reform. 0:01:51.257,0:01:53.644 Republican voters have [br]rewarded him with the highest 0:01:53.644,0:01:56.234 approval ratings among[br]statewide elected officials 0:01:56.598,0:01:59.281 including Lieutenant Governor[br]Dan Patrick and US Senator 0:01:59.281,0:02:02.514 Ted Cruz who themselves[br]are favorites of grassroots 0:02:02.514,0:02:03.827 conservative activists. 0:02:05.489,0:02:08.344 In the February 2019, [br]UT Texas Tribune poll, 0:02:08.344,0:02:11.992 83% of republicans approved[br]of the job Abbott was doing. 0:02:12.411,0:02:14.922 Including 62% who approved[br]strongly. 0:02:15.602,0:02:17.598 His ratings were even higher[br]in the conservative 0:02:17.598,0:02:18.838 quarters of the party. 0:02:19.485,0:02:24.352 96% of self-described extremely[br]conservative Texans approved 0:02:24.352,0:02:25.655 of the job he was doing. 0:02:26.090,0:02:28.450 87% strongly approved. 0:02:29.517,0:02:32.465 Given this, it should come [br]as no surprise that Abbott 0:02:32.465,0:02:36.593 faced no serious challengers[br]in the 2018 Republican primary 0:02:36.593,0:02:39.004 and was the most successful[br]Texas Republican 0:02:39.004,0:02:41.137 in the 2018 general election. 0:02:42.192,0:02:45.393 Abbott won re-election [br]by 14 percentage points. 0:02:45.704,0:02:48.235 While this margin is about[br]six points less than when he 0:02:48.235,0:02:51.909 was first elected in 2014,[br]he still won by the largest 0:02:51.909,0:02:54.763 margin of any of the major[br]candidates on the statewide 0:02:54.763,0:02:55.950 Republican slate. 0:02:56.914,0:02:58.938 Lieutenant Governor [br]Dan Patrick won by only 0:02:58.938,0:03:00.397 about four points. 0:03:00.397,0:03:02.364 And Attorney General [br]Ken Paxton by about 0:03:02.364,0:03:03.963 the same margin as Patrick. 0:03:04.952,0:03:08.277 Abbott thus entered the 2019[br]legislative session much 0:03:08.277,0:03:10.668 more secure in his position [br]with voters than any other 0:03:10.668,0:03:12.100 statewide official. 0:03:12.639,0:03:15.750 Most notably more secure[br]than Lieutenant Governor Patrick. 0:03:17.038,0:03:19.440 Which brings us to Dan Patrick. 0:03:19.440,0:03:22.405 One of the factors contributing[br]to early questions about the 0:03:22.405,0:03:25.389 prospects for Abbott's reset of the[br]governorship 0:03:25.389,0:03:29.210 was the impact of Dan Patrick's[br]expected effort to restore 0:03:29.210,0:03:31.445 the power of lieutenant governorship. 0:03:31.445,0:03:35.412 A historically strong position[br]in the Texas political system 0:03:35.412,0:03:36.965 during Abbott's term. 0:03:38.625,0:03:41.632 Abbott's popularity with the[br]Republican base not withstanding, 0:03:41.632,0:03:44.986 perhaps the most consequential[br]aspect of Abbott's first term 0:03:44.986,0:03:48.186 as governor was the necessity of[br]managing the presence 0:03:48.186,0:03:50.965 of an aggressive and influential[br]lieutenant governor. 0:03:52.393,0:03:55.150 Just as Abbott spent his first[br]term trying to maintain 0:03:55.150,0:03:58.002 some of the power that his[br]predecessor amassed during 0:03:58.002,0:03:59.512 his many terms in office, 0:03:59.983,0:04:03.086 Patrick spent the time period[br]seeking to re-establish 0:04:03.086,0:04:05.220 the power of the office [br]of the lieutenant governor. 0:04:07.355,0:04:11.233 Abbott's relationship with Patrick[br]is one leg of the triangular relationship 0:04:11.233,0:04:13.899 among the state's top three[br]political leaders. 0:04:14.412,0:04:16.201 Sometimes called the Big Three, 0:04:16.201,0:04:19.863 but it's proven more complex than[br]the relationships Perry faced. 0:04:21.240,0:04:24.105 Perry and the lieutenant governor[br]that served through his terms, 0:04:24.105,0:04:26.422 David Dewhurst, were rarely rivals. 0:04:27.332,0:04:30.345 But Patrick signaled early on that[br]he was eager to shape the 0:04:30.345,0:04:31.907 state's political agenda. 0:04:32.909,0:04:35.144 His aggressiveness led to [br]immediate rumblings 0:04:35.144,0:04:37.666 that Patrick's ambition [br]was to be governor. 0:04:38.577,0:04:40.389 Thus for much of the [br]first two sessions in which 0:04:40.389,0:04:43.915 they occupied the top [br]two spots in Texas government, 0:04:43.915,0:04:46.928 each seemed to be making[br]decisions with one eye on the other. 0:04:47.692,0:04:51.408 Their public image was generally[br]cooperative but insiders knew 0:04:51.408,0:04:55.154 that each was wary of the other[br]even as they pursued 0:04:55.154,0:04:56.790 similar political goals. 0:04:58.052,0:05:00.083 The first term dynamics among[br]the big three were not 0:05:00.083,0:05:03.309 just about Abbott and Patrick,[br]not by a long shot. 0:05:03.926,0:05:06.559 In particular, Abbott had to [br]manage his own place 0:05:06.559,0:05:08.806 amidst the increasing [br]acrimony between 0:05:08.806,0:05:13.575 Patrick and then-Speaker[br]of the House Joe Straus. 0:05:13.575,0:05:16.150 Strained relations between[br]Lieutenant Governor Patrick 0:05:16.150,0:05:18.907 and Speaker Straus[br]go back to Patrick's time 0:05:18.907,0:05:22.899 as a state senator and a[br]high-profile favorite of 0:05:22.899,0:05:25.007 newly ascended Tea Party groups. 0:05:25.834,0:05:29.409 Many of these Patrick allies [br]work continuously to defeat Straus 0:05:29.409,0:05:31.253 during his tenure as speaker. 0:05:32.381,0:05:36.032 Straus, a more traditional [br]pro-business Republican 0:05:36.032,0:05:39.331 was not especially interested[br]in the socially conservative agenda, 0:05:39.331,0:05:42.793 Patrick championed in his[br]first term in an apparent 0:05:42.793,0:05:45.941 effort to maintain the support[br]or reward the allegiance of 0:05:45.941,0:05:49.188 socially conservative GOP[br]primary voters. 0:05:50.409,0:05:54.223 The protracted politics of[br]efforts to limit transgender access 0:05:54.223,0:05:57.482 to public restrooms during[br]the 2017 session 0:05:57.482,0:05:59.866 provides a good example of[br]this dynamic. 0:06:00.657,0:06:04.034 Patrick championed the issue[br]and rallied social conservatives 0:06:04.034,0:06:05.207 to his cause, 0:06:05.207,0:06:07.384 what became known as the[br]bathroom bill. 0:06:07.827,0:06:11.370 Even as business interests,[br]especially large corporations, 0:06:11.370,0:06:13.851 opposed the measure on the[br]grounds that it was bad 0:06:13.851,0:06:16.998 for the state's business climate[br]and for their bottom line. 0:06:18.294,0:06:20.936 Straus publicly opposed [br]the bill and instructed 0:06:20.936,0:06:22.977 the legislation at every[br]opportunity. 0:06:23.648,0:06:26.518 It ultimately failed the pass[br]even after the governor 0:06:26.518,0:06:29.413 called the special session [br]as part of an effort not to 0:06:29.413,0:06:32.627 be outflanked on the[br]issue with conservative voters 0:06:32.627,0:06:33.791 by the lieutenant governor. 0:06:34.862,0:06:36.929 For the most part, [br]Abbott, publicly at least 0:06:36.929,0:06:39.957 attempted to stay above[br]the Patrick/Straus conflict. 0:06:40.599,0:06:43.970 Behind the scenes, relations[br]were strained among all three. 0:06:44.632,0:06:47.094 When cooperation among the [br]three leaders did emerge, 0:06:47.094,0:06:48.822 it always seemed provisional. 0:06:49.833,0:06:52.826 A pattern emerged, depending[br]on the situation, 0:06:52.826,0:06:57.504 Abbott could use Straus as both[br]unspoken ally and public scapegoat 0:06:57.504,0:07:00.460 when it came to managing his[br]position vis a vis Patrick. 0:07:01.272,0:07:04.235 The bathroom bill was the [br]epitome of this dynamic. 0:07:04.671,0:07:07.244 Abbott was a reluctant [br]backer of the legislation 0:07:07.244,0:07:09.025 given business opposition. 0:07:09.025,0:07:11.869 He pushed the issue in order[br]not to be seen by social 0:07:11.869,0:07:15.374 conservatives in the party [br]as less committed to their issues 0:07:15.374,0:07:16.048 than Patrick. 0:07:16.943,0:07:20.547 But the governor did so knowing[br]that if Straus prevented the legislation 0:07:20.547,0:07:23.768 from passing. Abbott could publicly[br]blame him even if he 0:07:23.768,0:07:25.028 was glad that it failed. 0:07:25.644,0:07:27.269 This is exactly how it played out. 0:07:28.366,0:07:30.610 With Straus now out of the mix, 0:07:30.610,0:07:32.907 Abbott's position vis a vis[br]the lieutenant governor 0:07:32.907,0:07:36.100 is likely to remain, shall we[br]say, complicated. 0:07:36.815,0:07:39.918 Straus' replacement, [br]Angleton Republican Dennis Bonnen 0:07:39.918,0:07:43.742 enters the speakership with a much[br]more solid base among Republicans 0:07:43.742,0:07:48.339 and a conservative voting[br]record as a long time house member. 0:07:49.159,0:07:52.169 This will make it harder for either[br]Abbott or Patrick to portray him 0:07:52.169,0:07:55.944 as insufficiently conservative[br]in order to use him as foil 0:07:55.944,0:07:56.943 or scapegoat. 0:07:57.663,0:08:00.105 The lieutenant governor will have[br]less ability to attempt to 0:08:00.105,0:08:03.035 undermine the speaker by [br]using discontented conservatives 0:08:03.035,0:08:07.374 in the house to press his agenda[br]as he did during Straus' term. 0:08:08.279,0:08:11.081 Many conservatives supported[br]Bonnen's speakership 0:08:11.081,0:08:13.750 and many were rewarded with[br]good committee assignments. 0:08:14.305,0:08:18.912 Patrick emerges less influential[br]and then less politically powerful. 0:08:19.317,0:08:22.276 Again, especially given his [br]close re-election. 0:08:23.100,0:08:25.757 An equally important factor[br]in Abbott's post election position 0:08:25.757,0:08:30.849 is that the results of the 2018 election[br]left Abbott politically stronger 0:08:30.849,0:08:32.164 in regards to Patrick. 0:08:33.235,0:08:36.583 As I said earlier, Abbott won [br]by a much larger margin 0:08:36.583,0:08:38.439 than Patrick in 2018. 0:08:39.507,0:08:41.651 But in addition to this [br]display of Abbott's superior 0:08:41.651,0:08:44.370 standing with voters, [br]he also cemented 0:08:44.370,0:08:47.009 relationships with many [br]Republicans by virtue 0:08:47.009,0:08:49.154 of his political fundraising skill. 0:08:49.880,0:08:53.116 One of Abbott's less widely[br]appreciated strengths is that 0:08:53.116,0:08:55.775 he has always been a very[br]effective fundraiser. 0:08:56.196,0:08:58.758 An asset that predates his[br]election as governor. 0:08:59.426,0:09:02.678 During the 2017-2018 [br]election cycle, 0:09:02.678,0:09:06.231 Abbott out-raised his Democratic[br]challenger Lupe Valdez, 0:09:06.627,0:09:11.171 44.3 million dollars to just [br]1.9 million. 0:09:11.422,0:09:13.914 The largest gap between[br]major party candidates in 0:09:13.914,0:09:14.994 state history. 0:09:16.001,0:09:20.050 Between January 1995 [br]and January 2019, 0:09:20.050,0:09:23.682 Abbott raised a [br]166.5 million dollars 0:09:23.682,0:09:25.522 in political contributions. 0:09:26.545,0:09:30.650 125 million of that was [br]raised between January 2013 0:09:30.650,0:09:35.161 and January 2019 to support[br]his gubernatorial campaigns. 0:09:35.549,0:09:38.106 The highest six year figure[br]in state history. 0:09:39.452,0:09:42.156 With such deep pockets, [br]Abbott was able to amend 0:09:42.156,0:09:45.040 an electoral effort that helped[br]candidates up and down the ballot 0:09:45.040,0:09:46.901 in a very tough election year. 0:09:47.495,0:09:50.263 This was not lost on Republican[br]candidates in close races 0:09:50.263,0:09:54.487 who Abbott supported both [br]materially and with endorsements. 0:09:55.282,0:09:58.083 In 2018, Governor Abbott was [br]a good friend to have 0:09:58.083,0:09:59.991 if you were a Republican candidate. 0:10:00.523,0:10:03.068 And once the election was [br]over, Abbott had a lot of 0:10:03.068,0:10:05.027 friends who owed him in [br]the legislature. 0:10:06.106,0:10:09.809 Patrick to be sure remains [br]well liked by Republican voters. 0:10:10.175,0:10:12.778 Though his job approval ratings[br]among Texas Republicans 0:10:12.778,0:10:15.748 remained eight points lower [br]than the governor's in the 0:10:15.748,0:10:18.611 February 2019 UT Texas Tribune poll. 0:10:19.356,0:10:21.125 While this is not a large gap, 0:10:21.125,0:10:24.218 Abbott's strong approval ratings[br]are 14 percentage points 0:10:24.218,0:10:25.568 higher than Patrick's. 0:10:27.801,0:10:31.248 Overall, managing the limitations[br]of the office while first term 0:10:31.248,0:10:35.193 governor meant the inevitable[br]transition in the centrality of 0:10:35.193,0:10:38.849 the office and the state's politics[br]compared to the Perry years. 0:10:39.679,0:10:41.992 Abbott's first term situation[br]was much closer to the 0:10:41.992,0:10:45.742 norm of the system created[br]by the Texas constitution. 0:10:46.288,0:10:48.818 No one should be too surprised[br]that the governorship 0:10:48.818,0:10:51.391 looked different during Abbott's [br]first term 0:10:51.391,0:10:53.380 than it did in Perry's last 0:10:53.380,0:10:56.201 when Perry was at the apex[br]of his political power. 0:10:57.259,0:11:00.037 However, the combination of[br]Abbott's record setting 0:11:00.037,0:11:05.423 fundraising, his decisive victory[br]in 2018, Patrick's much closer race 0:11:05.423,0:11:07.808 and the advent of a new[br]speaker of house 0:11:08.035,0:11:11.516 have all had the affect of strengthening[br]Abbott's position in his second term. 0:11:12.231,0:11:15.660 Abbott still has to contend with[br]the constitutional limitations, 0:11:15.660,0:11:18.356 the plural executive places on[br]the governorship. 0:11:19.006,0:11:22.145 But like his predecessor, [br]he has maximized the office's 0:11:22.145,0:11:25.039 potential for cultivating public[br]support. 0:11:25.456,0:11:28.354 And brought his own particular[br]assets to the office. 0:11:29.114,0:11:31.155 For the most part, [br]questions about Abbott's 0:11:31.155,0:11:34.204 ability to fully occupy the[br]enhanced governorship 0:11:34.204,0:11:36.035 have been asked and answered.