-
(door opens)
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(phones ring)
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(whispers)
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- Hi, how are you?
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Hey, Mr. Vennett.
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Who do we have?
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(prospectus thuds)
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- Let's see what you got.
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- You smell that, what is that?
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- [Mark] What?
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- What's that smell?
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- A cologne?
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- [Jared] No.
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- Opportunity.
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- No, money.
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- Oh, okay.
-
- I smell money.
- Okay.
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- Chris.
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Goddammit.
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- [Chris] I'm sorry.
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- This is your basic mortgage bond.
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All right, the originals were simple.
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They were just thousands of
AAA-mortgages bundled together,
-
guaranteed by the U.S. government.
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The modern ones are different.
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They're private.
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And they're made up of layers of tranches.
-
(slinky jazz music)
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Highest level AAAs getting paid first.
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The lowest rated Bs getting paid last,
-
taking on defaults first.
-
Now obviously, if you're buying Bs
-
you could make more money.
-
But, they're a little
risky, sometimes they fail.
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Chris.
-
Somewhere along the line,
-
these B and BBs went from
a little risky to dog shit.
-
Where's the trash?
-
- [Man] THere's one behind you.
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- I'm talking rock-bottom FICO scores.
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(Jenga block thuds)
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No income-verification.
-
(Jenga block thuds)
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Adjustable rates, dog shit.
-
(Jenga block thuds)
-
The default rates are already
up from one to 4%, fellas.
-
And if they rise to 8%, and they will,
-
a lot of these BBBs are going to zero too.
-
And that, you're too close,
-
is an opportunity.
-
(exhales)
-
- Okay, you're saying
that at 8% the bonds fail,
-
and we're already at 4%?
-
- That's right.
-
- If they go to eight, it's Armageddon.
-
- Yeah, that's right.
-
- [Mark] How come nobody's
talking about this?
-
- You're completely sure of the math?
-
- Look at him.
-
That's my quant.
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- [Mark] Your what?
-
- My quantitative, my math specialist.
-
Look at him.
-
You notice anything different about him?
-
Look at his face.
-
- [Mark] That's pretty racist.
-
- Look at his eyes.
-
I'll give you a hint.
-
His name's Yang.
-
He won a national math
competition in China.
-
He doesn't even speak English.
-
Yeah, I'm sure of the math.
-
- Actually, my name is Jeong,
and I do speak English.
-
Jared likes to say it though,
-
because he thinks it makes
me seem more authentic.
-
And I got second in that
national math competition.
-
- So you're offering us a chance
-
to short this pile of blocks?
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How?
-
- With something called
a credit default swap.
-
(claps)
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It's like insurance on the bond,
-
and if it goes bust, you can make 10-to-1.
-
Even 20-to-1 return, and it's
already slowly going bust.
-
- 10-to-1, 20-to-1, no way.
-
- And no one's paying attention.
-
No one is paying attention.
-
Because the banks are too
busy getting paid obscene fees
-
to sell these bonds.
-
- But wait, you are the bank,
or you work for the bank.
-
I bet your margins are
pretty nice and fat.
-
- Let's not talk about
my margins by the way.
-
Being nice and fat.
-
That's a nice shirt, do
they make it for men?
-
- [Man] Aren't you the bank?
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- I work for the bank.
-
I don't think like a bank.
-
Big banks, small bank,
I like to make money.
-
All right, let me put it this way.
-
I'm standing in front of a burning house,
-
and I'm offering you fire insurance on it.
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As, zero.
(Jenga block clatters)
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Bs, zero,
-
BBs, zero.
(Jenga block clatters)
-
BBBs, zero.
(Jenga block clatters)
-
(blocks clatter)
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And then that happens.
-
- What is that?
-
- That's America's housing market.