The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring
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0:02 - 0:04My talk today is about something
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0:04 - 0:06maybe a couple of you have already heard about.
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0:06 - 0:08It's called the Arab Spring.
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0:08 - 0:10Anyone heard of it?
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0:10 - 0:13(Applause)
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0:13 - 0:18So in 2011, power shifted,
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0:18 - 0:20from the few to the many,
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0:20 - 0:25from oval offices to central squares,
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0:25 - 0:27from carefully guarded airwaves
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0:27 - 0:30to open-source networks.
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0:30 - 0:35But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,
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0:35 - 0:37there were representative surveys
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0:37 - 0:40already giving people a voice
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0:40 - 0:44in quieter but still powerful ways.
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0:44 - 0:48I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.
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0:48 - 0:51Since 2001,
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0:51 - 0:54we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --
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0:54 - 0:56young and old, men and women,
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0:56 - 0:58educated and illiterate.
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0:58 - 1:02My talk today draws on this research
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1:02 - 1:06to reveal why Arabs rose up
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1:06 - 1:09and what they want now.
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1:09 - 1:12Now this region's very diverse,
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1:12 - 1:14and every country is unique.
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1:14 - 1:15But those who revolted
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1:15 - 1:18shared a common set of grievances
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1:18 - 1:22and have similar demands today.
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1:22 - 1:24I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.
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1:24 - 1:28It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.
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1:28 - 1:31But it's the largest Arab country
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1:31 - 1:35and it's also one with a great deal of influence.
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1:35 - 1:39But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region
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1:39 - 1:42to look at the mundane topics
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1:42 - 1:44of Arab views of religion and politics
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1:44 - 1:48and how this impacts women,
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1:48 - 1:51revealing some surprises along the way.
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1:51 - 1:55So after analyzing mounds of data,
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1:55 - 1:58what we discovered was this:
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1:58 - 2:01Unemployment and poverty alone
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2:01 - 2:06did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.
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2:06 - 2:09If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor
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2:09 - 2:11sparked these revolutions,
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2:11 - 2:15it was the difference between what Arabs experienced
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2:15 - 2:17and what they expected
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2:17 - 2:19that provided the fuel.
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2:19 - 2:20To tell you what I mean,
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2:20 - 2:22consider this trend in Egypt.
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2:22 - 2:25On paper the country was doing great.
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2:25 - 2:28In fact, it attracted accolades
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2:28 - 2:31from multinational organizations
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2:31 - 2:33because of its economic growth.
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2:33 - 2:35But under the surface was a very different reality.
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2:35 - 2:39In 2010, right before the revolution,
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2:39 - 2:41even though GDP per capita
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2:41 - 2:44had been growing at five percent for several years,
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2:44 - 2:49Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.
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2:49 - 2:51Now this is very unusual,
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2:51 - 2:54because globally we find that, not surprisingly,
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2:54 - 2:58people feel better as their country gets richer.
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2:58 - 3:01And that's because they have better job opportunities
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3:01 - 3:04and their state offers better social services.
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3:04 - 3:07But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.
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3:07 - 3:09As the country got more well-off,
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3:09 - 3:12unemployment actually rose
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3:12 - 3:14and people's satisfaction
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3:14 - 3:20with things like housing and education plummeted.
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3:20 - 3:25But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.
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3:25 - 3:32It was also people's deep longing for freedom.
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3:32 - 3:36Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,
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3:36 - 3:40Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,
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3:40 - 3:42they desired it.
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3:42 - 3:45As early as 2001,
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3:45 - 3:48we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,
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3:48 - 3:51what they admired most about the West.
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3:51 - 3:54Among the most frequent responses
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3:54 - 3:56was liberty and justice.
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3:56 - 3:59In their own words to an open-ended question
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3:59 - 4:02we heard, "Their political system is transparent
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4:02 - 4:05and it's following democracy in its true sense."
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4:05 - 4:07Another said it was "liberty and freedom
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4:07 - 4:10and being open-minded with each other."
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4:10 - 4:15Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater
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4:15 - 4:17in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran
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4:17 - 4:20told us in 2005
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4:20 - 4:24that if they were to write a new constitution
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4:24 - 4:27for a theoretical new country
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4:27 - 4:30that they would guarantee freedom of speech
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4:30 - 4:32as a fundamental right,
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4:32 - 4:34especially in Egypt.
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4:34 - 4:38Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy
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4:38 - 4:41would help Muslims progress --
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4:41 - 4:45the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.
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4:45 - 4:49But pressed up against these democratic aspirations
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4:49 - 4:52was a very different day-to-day experience,
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4:52 - 4:54especially in Egypt.
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4:54 - 4:57While aspiring to democracy the most,
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4:57 - 5:02they were the least likely population in the world
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5:02 - 5:06to say that they had actually voiced their opinion
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5:06 - 5:08to a public official in the last month --
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5:08 - 5:12at only four percent.
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5:12 - 5:17So while economic development made a few people rich,
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5:17 - 5:19it left many more worse off.
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5:19 - 5:23As people felt less and less free,
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5:23 - 5:27they also felt less and less provided for.
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5:27 - 5:31So rather than viewing their former regimes
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5:31 - 5:34as generous if overprotective fathers,
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5:34 - 5:38they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.
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5:38 - 5:43So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,
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5:43 - 5:45they potentially could be
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5:45 - 5:48an example for the region.
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5:48 - 5:49If Egypt is to succeed
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5:49 - 5:52at building a society based on the rule of law,
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5:52 - 5:55it could be a model.
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5:55 - 5:57If, however,
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5:57 - 6:01the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,
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6:01 - 6:05the consequences could be catastrophic --
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6:05 - 6:06not just for Egypt,
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6:06 - 6:09but for the entire region.
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6:09 - 6:13The signs don't look good, some have said.
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6:13 - 6:18Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,
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6:18 - 6:21won the majority in Parliament.
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6:21 - 6:22The military council
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6:22 - 6:27has cracked down on civil society and protests
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6:27 - 6:30and the country's economy continues to suffer.
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6:30 - 6:35Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,
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6:35 - 6:39ignores the real revolution.
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6:39 - 6:42Because Egyptians are more optimistic
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6:42 - 6:44than they have been in years,
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6:44 - 6:48far less divided on religious-secular lines
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6:48 - 6:49than we would think
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6:49 - 6:53and poised for the demands of democracy.
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6:53 - 6:56Whether they support Islamists or liberals,
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6:56 - 6:59Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,
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6:59 - 7:02and they are jobs, stability and education,
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7:02 - 7:04not moral policing.
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7:04 - 7:05But most of all,
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7:05 - 7:07for the first time in decades,
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7:07 - 7:11they expect to be active participants, not spectators,
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7:11 - 7:13in the affairs of their country.
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7:13 - 7:17I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians
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7:17 - 7:19from Egypt and Tunisia
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7:19 - 7:20a couple of weeks ago.
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7:20 - 7:22And what really struck me about them
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7:22 - 7:28was that they weren't only optimistic,
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7:28 - 7:31but they kind of struck me as nervous,
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7:31 - 7:32for lack of a better word.
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7:32 - 7:33One said to me,
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7:33 - 7:36"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --
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7:36 - 7:39or soccer, as we say in America --
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7:39 - 7:44"and now they gather to watch Parliament."
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7:44 - 7:47(Laughter)
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7:47 - 7:49"They're really watching us,
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7:49 - 7:53and we can't help but worry
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7:53 - 7:56that we're not going to live up to their expectations."
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7:56 - 7:57And what really struck me
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7:57 - 8:00is that less than 24 months ago,
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8:00 - 8:02it was the people that were nervous
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8:02 - 8:05about being watched by their government.
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8:05 - 8:08And the reason that they're expecting a lot
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8:08 - 8:11is because they have a new-found hope for the future.
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8:11 - 8:13So right before the revolution
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8:13 - 8:17we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,
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8:17 - 8:21but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.
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8:21 - 8:24What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak
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8:24 - 8:26wasn't that life got easier.
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8:26 - 8:28It actually got harder.
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8:28 - 8:31But people's expectations for their future
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8:31 - 8:33went up significantly.
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8:33 - 8:35And this hope, this optimism,
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8:35 - 8:39endured a year of turbulent transition.
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8:39 - 8:43One reason that there's this optimism
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8:43 - 8:47is because, contrary to what many people have said,
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8:47 - 8:51most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.
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8:51 - 8:54So while Egyptians were known
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8:54 - 8:57for their single-digit turnout
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8:57 - 9:00in elections before the revolution,
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9:00 - 9:04the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --
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9:04 - 9:05men and women.
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9:05 - 9:11Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --
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9:11 - 9:12I'm surprised it was a quarter --
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9:12 - 9:1690 percent thought that this last election was honest.
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9:16 - 9:18Now why this matters
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9:18 - 9:21is because we discovered a link
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9:21 - 9:25between people's faith in their democratic process
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9:25 - 9:29and their faith that oppressed people
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9:29 - 9:32can change their situation
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9:32 - 9:36through peaceful means alone.
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9:36 - 9:46(Applause)
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9:46 - 9:48Now I know what some of you are thinking.
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9:48 - 9:50The Egyptian people,
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9:50 - 9:54and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,
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9:54 - 9:57have very high expectations of the government.
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9:57 - 10:02They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,
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10:02 - 10:04expecting a paternal state
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10:04 - 10:06to solve all their problems.
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10:06 - 10:10But this conclusion would ignore
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10:10 - 10:13a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt
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10:13 - 10:17far from the cameras in Tahrir Square.
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10:17 - 10:21And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations
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10:21 - 10:24are placed first on themselves.
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10:24 - 10:28In the country once known for its passive resignation,
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10:28 - 10:30where, as bad as things got,
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10:30 - 10:34only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,
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10:34 - 10:37today 90 percent tell us
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10:37 - 10:39that if there's a problem in their community,
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10:39 - 10:42it's up to them to fix it.
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10:42 - 10:49(Applause)
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10:49 - 10:51And three-fourths
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10:51 - 10:54believe they not only have the responsibility,
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10:54 - 10:57but the power to make change.
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10:57 - 10:59And this empowerment
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10:59 - 11:02also applies to women,
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11:02 - 11:04whose role in the revolts
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11:04 - 11:06cannot be underestimated.
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11:06 - 11:08They were doctors and dissidents,
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11:08 - 11:10artists and organizers.
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11:10 - 11:15A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas
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11:15 - 11:20to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt
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11:20 - 11:21were women.
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11:21 - 11:28(Applause)
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11:28 - 11:30Now people have raised some real concerns
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11:30 - 11:34about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.
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11:34 - 11:38What we've found about the role of religion in law
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11:38 - 11:41and the role of religion in society
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11:41 - 11:44is that there's no female consensus.
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11:44 - 11:48We found that women in one country
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11:48 - 11:50look more like the men in that country
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11:50 - 11:54than their female counterparts across the border.
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11:54 - 11:56Now what this suggests
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11:56 - 12:00is that how women view religion's role in society
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12:00 - 12:05is shaped more by their own country's culture and context
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12:05 - 12:08than one monolithic view
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12:08 - 12:11that religion is simply bad for women.
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12:11 - 12:14Where women agree, however,
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12:14 - 12:16is on their own role,
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12:16 - 12:19and that it must be central and active.
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12:19 - 12:24And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --
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12:24 - 12:26on the issue of women's rights.
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12:26 - 12:29Now how men feel about women's rights
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12:29 - 12:32matters to the future of this region.
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12:32 - 12:35Because we discovered a link
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12:35 - 12:39between men's support for women's employment
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12:39 - 12:42and how many women are actually employed
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12:42 - 12:45in professional fields in that country.
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12:45 - 12:46So the question becomes,
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12:46 - 12:51What drives men's support for women's rights?
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12:51 - 12:57What about men's views of religion and law?
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12:57 - 13:00[Does] a man's opinion
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13:00 - 13:03of the role of religion in politics
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13:03 - 13:07shape their view of women's rights?
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13:07 - 13:08The answer is no.
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13:08 - 13:11We found absolutely no correlation
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13:11 - 13:13and no impact whatsoever
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13:13 - 13:15between these two variables.
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13:15 - 13:19What drives men's support for women's employment
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13:19 - 13:22is men's employment,
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13:22 - 13:24their level of education
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13:24 - 13:27as well as a high score
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13:27 - 13:31on their country's U.N. Human Development Index.
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13:31 - 13:32What this means
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13:32 - 13:35is that human development,
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13:35 - 13:37not secularization,
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13:37 - 13:40is what's key to women's empowerment
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13:40 - 13:44in the transforming Middle East.
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13:44 - 13:47And the transformation continues.
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13:47 - 13:51From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,
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13:51 - 13:53it has never been more important
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13:53 - 13:55to understand the aspirations
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13:55 - 13:57of ordinary people.
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13:57 - 13:59Thank you.
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13:59 - 14:09(Applause)
- Title:
- The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring
- Speaker:
- Dalia Mogahed
- Description:
-
Pollster Dalia Mogahed shares surprising data on Egyptian people's attitudes and hopes before the Arab Spring -- with a special focus on the role of women in sparking change.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 14:32
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring | ||
Jenny Zurawell approved English subtitles for The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring | ||
Timothy Covell added a translation |