Pandemic runs on the pollution highways | Leonardo Setti | TEDxMantova

The spreading of COVID 19 is fueled by fine dust pollution. Leonardo Setti has successfully demonstrated this scientifically, and explains how this diffusion takes place. The most effective solution? Stop using energy derived from fossil sources.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community.

Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

[Action Calls, Generates,
Creates, Inspires Action]

[The countdown leaves no way out]

[We can stop climate change]

Hello everyone.

How are you? Everything fine?

I'm fine in this particular moment, right?

Also because everyone
came with face masks -

Me, not really.

Not so much because
I got infected, three days ago.

And today I'm sick with Covid.

But don't worry,

I see in your eyes a flash of fear.

No, don't worry, because we are
more than two meters away,

we are quite distant
from each other, so we are safe.

If we keep this distance, as in this case,

my ability to infect you
is basically zero.

That is, the infection index,
R0, is essentially zero.

Now let's suppose, instead,

to take this ball that I will call PM 10,

like the dust that there is in the air,

and are, shortly, linked to pollution.

How are you, PM 10? Everything all right?

Achoo!

I infected PM 10.

Sorry, now I can no longer give
the talk I meant to give.

I have to change the PM 10 necessarily,
but I can't keep it here.

Anyone wants to take
my PM 10? Anyone? No one?

Sorry, would you mind taking my PM 10?

Here, thanks.

Thanks so much, thank you!

She couldn't take it.

She’s my wife.

We've been together for a long time,
so there's no problem.

Now, with this simple gesture,

I infected a person at a distance
of more than two meters;

that safe distance

where I am right now

is actually not exactly so safe

because there may be
environmental elements

that lead me to infect a person
at even greater distances.

My R0 went from zero to one.

Now, let's suppose, instead,

we randomly pick up this PM 10 bin.

It is not so casual, this PM 10 bin.

How are you PM 10? Everything all right?

They always come with me,
PMs accompany everyone a bit.

Achoo!

Now I have a small problem:
I have contaminated all my PM10s.

Now you understand, if I throw
PM 10 on you right now,

I could risk infecting
many people at the same time,

more than one.

So my R0 went from one to three, four.

Now let's suppose,

instead of putting an obstacle
between you and me.

For example a tree, a plant.

If now I did the same gesture,

that is, I throw my PM 10,

you see that the tree would hold my PM 10

and make them fall back near me.

That is what we do when there are no trees

and we wear, for example, a face mask.

Face masks have the same effect
that a plant, a tree should have.

This happens because viruses,
in their natural reservoir,

are in the forests,

where we have bats, pangolins
and all wild animals.

These animals in the forests
exchange these viruses;

and in order to touch these viruses

we must necessarily enter
these natural reservoirs.

Or let wild animals come out
of their natural reservoirs

and come into contact with us,

as probably happened
in the latest epidemic.

And therefore we say,
the natural reservoir

is extremely important,
it must be preserved

because otherwise the risk

is that the number of pandemics
may increase over time.

Now, the second industrial revolution
began about 100 years ago.

The second industrial revolution
in human history

was when we began to use oil and gas

in huge quantities.

Consider that our spaceship,

a hundred years ago,

had a tank full of fossil fuels:

an unlimited amount of energy,

for the billion people
who were there at that time.

The temperature of our ship
was perfect, around 14 degrees,

as it ought to be;

and the pressure, the maintenance
of carbon dioxide in the air

was also absolutely normal:

around 270 parts per million,

which means 270 milligrams
per thousand liters of air.

So let's say it was an ideal condition;

but it was also an ideal condition
to start our development;

And indeed, around the 60s,

we had what is called the economic boom.

That is, we began to use

all this amount of energy
that we had in the tank

to sell cars - the FIAT Cinquecento,
for example, in Italy -

heat our homes

and start building objects,
devices, appliances

that we have brought everywhere;

and we have also established all the firms

capable of producing these devices.

I mean, we just had an explosion.

We have now gone from one billion people

to four, five billion.

Until 2010, which,

with all this energy available,

has grown and developed;

and as it developed,
it had to start occupying the territory.

And in fact, we began
to occupy the territory.

You see: the first photograph
is the province of Padua in the '60s;

in the second photograph

it is the same province in 2010.

That is, we really went
to invade the natural niches,

because it was necessary
to be able to host all men.

Now, what we have done
for the past 100 years

is an indiscriminate
exploitation of resources.

We really drained the reservoir:

and where we extracted
the resources, we polluted.

We have also brought
this pollution to our cities.

Through the devices
we live our cities with:

cars, heating systems,

outside the cities
we also have industries.

That is, we have just created
an almost ideal condition,

and at the same time we went
to invade the natural reservoirs.

This, for example,
is the deforestation of Borneo.

By now, more then half
Borneo forest is gone,

that means, we have
cut down that rainforest

to go and grow palm trees
to produce palm oil;

and through palm oil,

we feed on cars,
for example, for biodiesel,

as well as for food;

but much of it now ends up

in biodiesel to fuel cars.

Again, we went to the Amazon forest,

because we have grown so much:

we are carnivores, we like meat,

we need to raise livestock worldwide.

And so we arrested the Amazon
for... making pastures!

Yes, man did that too.

And what happened then?

Every time we do an operation like this,

and we destroy that natural reservoir,
that natural niche,

the animals then come out.

With their virus downry.

In fact, viruses are gradually increasing;

and then the viruses
got in touch with humans,

because at that point

we have removed the barriers,

and we have what is called
the spillover, or the passage of species.

Or even zoonosis,
as it is technically called,

that is, when the virus passes
from animal to man.

Now, passing from animal to man,
this virus is then transported

through humans and their devices

around the world: airplanes, ships, cars.

Today, we can carry a virus
half world away

in 12 hours:

in 12 hours, an infected person
can contaminate a continent.

Do you get how unprecedented that is?

After that, the virus enters our cities.

And it finds an ideal condition:
the gatherings it's yearning.

Yes, because cinema,
theaters like these, stadiums.

Or any other - supermarkets.

A gathering,

and the virus, at that point,
not even two meters away,

can move at a flash speed,

Not only that: it enters our cities;

and when we breathe,
we breathe in the midst of PM 10.

Because we generate them, we create them;

and so it finds a suitable vehicle,

as we saw before, to go further.

Indeed.

After that, the consequence
is the last picture you see here.

The consequence is
that we have an epidemic.

And as a consequence,
we go to the hospital,

and many of us can't get out
of the hospital anymore.

This is an absolutely natural phenomenon,

which however we tend to favor.

Now, what is a virus' spreading rate?

Well, a virus' spreading rate
is a bit subtle,

because it is not quite the same speed

we manage our society with,

or the timings in our life,
which tend to be linear.

No: the virus has another type of course,

which is a very natural one,
shared by all natural events.

You see? The first week
the virus can spread,

and can infect 400 people, 500 people.

The second week it went
from 500 people to 1600 people;

the third week it goes
from 1,600 to 3,500 people,

and we are starting to get slightly worry,

because in the first week we were saying:

oh well, it's a flu,
but it won't be that serious;

and then someone gets infected, but well -

Then maybe we don't do enough swabs.

The fourth week of infected become 10,000.

A day, maybe.

And the fifth week they become 100,000,

and is when they become 100,000

that the intensive care units are full,

people that are taken to the hospital.

We are afraid:

we are so afraid that we close everything.

We separate, they set social distancing,

and our R0 goes from four, five,
back to one, zero.

We wear face masks.

Our R0 of four, five becomes one again.

So, we do all those adaptation operations

that we need to safeguard
our life and that of others.

But the professor is a joker.

I say this to myself.

He is a joker

because what you see here is not a virus.

Huh, too easy to say it's a virus.

Sure it looks the same.

It started to Italy,

then later I start spreading
to other countries,

then - it's not the virus.

Because what you are actually seeing here

is the effect of climate change.

They are the extreme events.

And by extreme events
I mean storms, hurricanes, tornadoes,

water bombs, floods.

Look: between 1970 and 1980
there were about 462,

that means 46 per year.

Between 1980 and 1990
there were already 160 per year.

Between 1990 and 2000
they had already grown to over 300 - 350.

Between 2000 and 2010
there had become over 1,000,

extreme events.

In the last decade, there have been
over 10,000 a year.

And in fact, we are surprised, today,

that a city is flooded after any big rain,
there is some river that overflows

or so and we are surprised, right?

It is among those 10,000 a year.
This did not happen in the 70s.

These are precisely those effects
linked to climate change,

which tell us that extreme events
double every five years.

It means that in 2025
there will be 20,000 a year;

in 2030 there will be 40,000 per year.

And then we'll be so afraid of the effects
that climate change will bring about

that we will go into
"environmental lockdown".

But environmental lockdown
is slightly different

because environmental lockdown

isn't putting on a face mask,
it's not distancing.

No: it means reinforcing,
blocking everything;

and this is what happens,
as a light bulb turned on today.

We are here because a light bulb,
a warning, turned on.

which says: our tank is empty.

No more energy left.

Our spaceship's temperature
has risen to 15 degrees.

The pressure, the CO2 manometer,
has exceeded 400 parts per million.

Any process engineer,

faced with a high temperature
and high pressure plant,

without the ability to control it
from an energy point of view

has only two possibilities.

He can run away, as with Chernobyl:
they ran away, at some point.

Too dangerous.

Or, if he's brave,
he takes the emergency knob

and pulls it down, to secure the plant.

Now, this is what can be done.

Well: what we need to do is simple.

It's the call to action:
we talked about it a lot today.

If the consequence
of what we are experiencing

is due to the second
industrial revolution,

and it is due to fossil fuels,

the only other alternative
we have, no ifs and buts,

is that we must abandon fossil fuels.

That is, we must abandon
oil, gas and coal.

That's imperative.

The alternative to fossil fuels

is the one you see
in this image here: the Sun.

The Sun gives us
15,000 times the energy we need:

it is the largest tank we have,

we can refill the tank of our spaceship.

It will last four billion years:
it is very sustainable.

We have all the technologies to take it;

but it gets inconvenient,
for we have to change the devices.

Electric cars, electric houses -
we are still often unprepared.

This means we have two options.

Either we change, as viruses
would do to try to survive:

they mutate, without killing the host;

or we move to another planet.

But I think it's easier to change
than moving to another planet.

Thank you.

(Applause)