Problem connecting to Twitter. Please try again.
Problem connecting to Twitter. Please try again.
Problem connecting to Twitter. Please try again.
Problem connecting to Twitter. Please try again.
Problem connecting to Twitter. Please try again.
"Managing risk in practice" workshop
-
0:01 - 0:04Okay, let's have a look at
risk management in practice -
0:04 - 0:08And what I want to do
is to start with some basic concepts -
0:08 - 0:14then focus on two difficult areas
in the risk process -
0:14 - 0:19So, I guess if I asked you
to define the word 'risk' -
0:19 - 0:23you would have some ideas
of what it meant -
0:23 - 0:26We might not have a formal definition
that we could quote, -
0:26 - 0:30but we all have something in our minds
when we hear the word 'risk' -
0:30 - 0:34This is what we think,
and maybe you think of things like this -
0:34 - 0:39Maybe you feel like this little guy,
facing some big ugly challenge -
0:39 - 0:42that you know is just going to
squash you flat. -
0:42 - 0:44Maybe you feel like this guy.
-
0:44 - 0:46This is a real job in North Korea,
-
0:48 - 0:51and his job is to hold the target
for other people to shoot at -
0:52 - 0:54Sometimes project managers
have the target here -
0:54 - 0:57We feel like everybody is shooting at us
in our job -
0:58 - 1:02Or maybe you just know there's something
nasty out there, waiting to get you -
1:02 - 1:06And maybe that's what you think of
when you think of the word 'risk' -
1:06 - 1:10Well that's partly true
but it's not the whole truth. -
1:10 - 1:14Risk is not the same
as uncertainty. -
1:14 - 1:17Risk is related to uncertainty
but they're different. -
1:18 - 1:24So all risks are uncertain
but not all uncertainties are risks. -
1:25 - 1:28If you have a risk register
or a risk list, -
1:28 - 1:31you don't have a million items in it,
or you shouldn't. -
1:32 - 1:35You don't even probably have
a thousand items in it, -
1:35 - 1:36you have a smaller number.
-
1:37 - 1:40Although there are millions
of uncertainties in the world. -
1:40 - 1:44So how do we decide which uncertainties
we're going to call 'risk'? -
1:45 - 1:47And write them down
and put them in our risk register -
1:48 - 1:50and decide to do something about them.
-
1:50 - 1:56Clearly 'risk' is a subset
of uncertainties, but which subset? -
1:57 - 1:58How do you know?
-
1:59 - 2:03I think it's very simple to separate
risk and uncertainty. -
2:03 - 2:05And I used 3 English words,
-
2:05 - 2:10these words here,
'risk is uncertainty that matters." -
2:12 - 2:15Because most of the
uncertainties in the world don't matter. -
2:16 - 2:19We don't care if it's going to rain
in London tomorrow afternoon. -
2:19 - 2:24It might, it might not,
it's irrelevant, it doesn't matter. -
2:24 - 2:27We don't care what the
exchange rate will be -
2:27 - 2:31if it's between the Russian Ruble
and the Chinese Yen in 2020. -
2:31 - 2:32It doesn't matter to us.
-
2:33 - 2:35But there are things on our projects,
-
2:35 - 2:37and things in our families,
-
2:37 - 2:39and things in our country,
-
2:39 - 2:41which are uncertain which do matter to us.
-
2:42 - 2:45If it's an uncertainty that matters,
it's a risk. -
2:46 - 2:50So here's another question,
how do you know what matters? -
2:51 - 2:53In your projects,
what are the things that matter? -
2:54 - 2:58The things that matter in our projects
are our objectives. -
2:59 - 3:02So we must always connect uncertainty
with objectives, -
3:03 - 3:06in order to find the risks.
-
3:06 - 3:08And if we look at
some definitions of risk, -
3:08 - 3:11this is the ISO standard that I mentioned,
-
3:11 - 3:14it connects those words very simply.
-
3:14 - 3:18Risk is the effect of uncertainty
on objectives. -
3:18 - 3:21And we might look at another definition
from the UK, -
3:21 - 3:24from our association
with project management, -
3:24 - 3:28it says the same thing that risk
is an uncertain event -
3:28 - 3:32or a set of circumstances,
which is uncertain, -
3:32 - 3:35but it matters because should it occur,
-
3:35 - 3:39it will have an effect on achievement of objectives.
-
3:39 - 3:41Uncertainty that matters.
-
3:41 - 3:44So we should be looking
in our risk register for two things. -
3:45 - 3:49Is it uncertain? We don't want
problems in our risk register. -
3:49 - 3:52We don't want issues in the risk register.
-
3:52 - 3:55We don't want constraints or requirements.
-
3:55 - 4:00These things are certain,
what we want are uncertainties, -
4:00 - 4:02something that might happen
or might not happen. -
4:03 - 4:07But the other important question for our
risk register is -
4:07 - 4:08does it matter?
-
4:08 - 4:12Which objective would be effective
if this thing happened? -
4:13 - 4:16And then when we want to see
how big the risk is, -
4:16 - 4:18we can ask those two questions:
-
4:18 - 4:20how uncertain is it,
-
4:20 - 4:22and how much does it matter?
-
4:22 - 4:25And that will tell us how big the risk is.
-
4:25 - 4:27So, this idea of uncertainty that matters
-
4:27 - 4:31then develops into something which is useful
-
4:31 - 4:33by linking uncertainty to our objectives.
-
4:35 - 4:37So, we have two dimensions of ‘risk,’
-
4:37 - 4:40we have an uncertainty dimension and we
-
4:40 - 4:42have a dimension that
affects our objectives -
4:43 - 4:47In projects, we call
this probability and impact, -
4:47 - 4:50We could call them other things,
-
4:50 - 4:51there are other English
-
4:51 - 4:53words we could use,
but these -
4:53 - 4:55are the ones,
most often, we use. -
4:55 - 4:58And I would like to ask you with
this picture of the mouse. -
5:00 - 5:05What effect matters to the mouse?
-
5:06 - 5:09So first of all, clearly,
he is in a uncertain situation here. -
5:10 - 5:12And he's seen some risks.
-
5:12 - 5:15His objective is to get the cheese
and stay alive. -
5:16 - 5:19And so, one of the risks he has
identified is a bad thing -
5:19 - 5:21that might happen,
he might be killed or injured. -
5:22 - 5:25And so, he has been a
good project manager, -
5:25 - 5:27he has put his little helmet on,
and he is preparing -
5:27 - 5:32so that it doesn't happen to him.
So, he doesn't get killed or injured. -
5:32 - 5:33Very good.
-
5:34 - 5:37And there are things in our projects,
that if they happened -
5:37 - 5:38would kill or injure us.
-
5:38 - 5:39They would waste time,
-
5:39 - 5:42waste money, damage reputation,
-
5:42 - 5:43destroy performance,
-
5:43 - 5:46maybe even injure real people.
-
5:46 - 5:50And as project managers we have to
see those things and stop them happening. -
5:50 - 5:52Protect ourselves in advance.
-
5:52 - 5:53Avoid them.
-
5:54 - 5:58Are there any other uncertainties
that matter for the mouse? -
6:00 - 6:01Well there is...
-
6:01 - 6:02the cheese.
-
6:03 - 6:06There's an uncertainty here which
matters a great deal. -
6:06 - 6:08Will I get the cheese out of the trap?
-
6:09 - 6:10He might, or he might not.
-
6:11 - 6:14And if he doesn't get the
cheese out of the trap, he's failed -
6:15 - 6:17So he has two uncertainties to manage,
-
6:17 - 6:20one of them is bad - he might be killed
or injured - -
6:20 - 6:23the other is good - he might
get the cheese. -
6:23 - 6:25And what he has to do,
-
6:25 - 6:29what he has to do is to manage both
of these at the same time. -
6:29 - 6:32And as project managers, we have to
do the same thing. -
6:33 - 6:36And also we have to do it in the
best possible way - -
6:36 - 6:41sometimes there's a better way to get the
cheese without being killed or injured. -
6:41 - 6:45In our projects we have to stop the
bad things happening, -
6:45 - 6:48but we also have to get the cheese out
of our projects. -
6:49 - 6:52So what does 'cheese' mean,
in your project? -
6:52 - 6:54What is the 'cheese' in your project?
-
6:55 - 6:57'Cheese' means value.
-
6:57 - 6:58'Cheese' means benefits.
-
6:59 - 7:02'Cheese' means products and
services that people want and need. -
7:02 - 7:04'Cheese' means customer satisfaction.
-
7:04 - 7:09'Cheese' is the good stuff that we're
trying to get out of our difficult projects. -
7:09 - 7:12And if we don't do anything bad -
-
7:12 - 7:16we don't waste time, we don't
waste money, we don't damage reputation - -
7:16 - 7:18but we don't create value,
-
7:18 - 7:19we've failed.
-
7:20 - 7:23If the mouse didn't die but he didn't
get the cheese, he failed. -
7:24 - 7:28If we create benefits, but we waste time
and waste money and destroy reputation, -
7:28 - 7:29we've failed.
-
7:30 - 7:33And if the mouse gets the cheese
and he's killed, -
7:33 - 7:34he's failed.
-
7:34 - 7:36So we have to do both of these things.
-
7:36 - 7:39And when we think about risk
and think about impact, -
7:39 - 7:42there are two kinds of impact that matter.
-
7:43 - 7:45Bad ones, and good ones.
-
7:45 - 7:48Uncertainties that could hurt the project,
-
7:49 - 7:52and uncertainties that
could help the project. -
7:52 - 7:56Both of these matter
and both of these need to be managed. -
7:57 - 7:59And we have another word for those.
-
7:59 - 8:04So, here's the definition of risk from the
Project Management Institute, the PMI, -
8:04 - 8:06from the PMBok Guide.
-
8:06 - 8:08It's the same as the others
that we've seen: -
8:08 - 8:12an uncertain event or condition,
that if it occurs, affects an objective. -
8:13 - 8:19But PMI knows about the mouse. PMI knows
about the cheese and the traps, -
8:19 - 8:22and has added three words
to the definition of risk here. -
8:23 - 8:26It's not the words 'cheese' and 'traps'.
-
8:26 - 8:29It's the words 'positive or negative'.
-
8:30 - 8:34What this tells us is that there
are good risks, as well as bad risks. -
8:35 - 8:38And we heard that in one of our
keynote speeches, earlier this morning. -
8:39 - 8:43In the uncertain situation that this
country faces going forward -
8:43 - 8:46with all the changes that their have been,
there are threats. -
8:46 - 8:48There are things that could go wrong.
-
8:48 - 8:50And you need to see those
and address them. -
8:50 - 8:53But there are also opportunities.
-
8:53 - 8:56Uncertain things that might happen
that could be good. -
8:57 - 8:59And we also need to see those things,
-
9:00 - 9:03and to try and proactively
make them happen. -
9:03 - 9:05And that is equally true in our projects,
-
9:05 - 9:07in our personal lives,
-
9:07 - 9:09and also at the national level.
-
9:10 - 9:14And I'll be talking about some of
those things later on this afternoon -
9:15 - 9:19So, PMI has this definition. The other
standards have something very similar. -
9:20 - 9:21The iso standard, at the bottom here,
-
9:21 - 9:26says 'risk is the effect of
uncertainty on objectives.' -
9:27 - 9:29Note, the effect can be
positive or negative. -
9:31 - 9:35And the APM Association, for project
management in the UK says the same thing. -
9:35 - 9:40So we have this new idea,
that risk is a double-sided concept. -
9:41 - 9:44And it's the same impression,
the word you have for risk, -
9:44 - 9:48we mostly think of bad things.
But it could be used for good things, -
9:48 - 9:50as well. Isn't that right?
-
9:50 - 9:52It's an uncertain word.
- Title:
- "Managing risk in practice" workshop
- Description:
-
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- Captions Requested
- Duration:
- 35:49
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop | ||
vjsCM edited English subtitles for "Managing risk in practice" workshop |
English subtitles
Revisions Compare revisions
-
Revision 56 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 55 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 54 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 53 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 52 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 51 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 50 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 49 EditedvjsCM
-
Revision 48 EditedEvelyn Pung
-
Revision 47 Editedgracieml
-
Revision 46 EditedEvelyn Pung
-
Revision 45 EditedEvelyn Pung
-
Revision 44 EditedEvelyn Pung
-
Revision 43 Editednicolv93
-
Revision 42 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 41 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 40 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 39 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 38 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 37 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 36 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 35 EditedKaera Mitchen
-
Revision 34 EditedRetired user
-
Revision 33 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 32 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 31 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 30 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 29 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 28 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 27 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 26 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 25 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 24 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 23 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 22 EditedTroian
-
Revision 21 Editednk1717
-
Revision 20 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 19 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 18 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 17 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 16 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 15 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 14 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 13 EditedRachel Li
-
Revision 12 EditedRachel Li
-
Revision 11 Editedwy kenta
-
Revision 10 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 9 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 8 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 7 Editedmgchacon98
-
Revision 6 Editedwy kenta
-
Revision 5 EditedRachel Li
-
Revision 4 EditedRachel Li
-
Revision 3 EditedRachel Li
-
Revision 2 Editedmai5396
-
Revision 1 Editedmai5396