https:/.../The+Code+-+The+Wisdom+of+the+Crowd.mp4

♪ (suspensful music) ♪
(waves crashing)

♪ (suspensful music) ♪

- As a crowd, the patterns we make
are incredibly predictable.

Even as individuals,
our actions are controlled by the code.

And by untangling chaotic systems
like the weather,

we've uncovered evidence of the code
in what we once thought of

as impossibly complex.

When we look at things
from a different angle,

surprising patterns emerge.

Patterns that can reveal
defining truths about ourselves,

and our future.

In 1906, an unfortunate cow
laid down its life

for a place in mathematical history.

- 1, 2, 264, 417.

- The cow was the subject

of a guess-the-weight competition
at a village fair.

The lucky person who came closest
would win the slaughtered animal's meat.

- 1,020; 2,134.
- The amazing thing was,

nobody guessed correctly.
- 3,570.

- And yet, everybody got it right.
- 4,509; 4,510.

- To show you how they did it,
I'm not going to use a cow,

I'm going to use a jar of jelly beans.

- Four hundred and fifty.

- Eight hundred.

- Twelve thousand.

- Seven thousand.

- How many jelly beans
do you think there are in this jar?

- Fifty-- eighty thousand.
- Eighty thousand?

- No, actually, 50,000.
- Fifty thousand? Okay.

- It's incredibly difficult for anyone
to guess how many jelly beans there are.

I asked 160 people, and most
were way off the mark.

Everything from 400 right up to
50,000 beans.

In fact, only four people got anywhere
near the correct answer of 4,510.

- One thousand five hundred plus...
(overlapping voices)

- But if I add all the answers together
and take the average,

I'll get the combined guess
of the entire group.

(overlapping voices)
- ...plus a thousand, plus five thousand.

- Which gives a grand total of
722,383.5.

Somebody thought there was
half a bean in there.

Now there were 160 guesses made,

so let's see how close
they are collectively.

Wow. That's extraordinary.

You remember, there were 4, 510.

The average guess,
to the nearest bean, is 4,515.

I mean, I thought it would be close,

but I didn't think it'd be that close.
That is ridiculous.

So although we had guesses that were
all over the place,

up in thirty thousands,
right down in the four hundreds,

collectively, we get something
which is just 0.1% away

from the real number of beans in there.

So, as individuals,
the guesses are just that, guesses.

But when you take them collectively,
they become something else entirely.

(overlapping voices)

- What tends to happen is that,
more or less,

as many people will underestimate
the number of jelly beans

as overestimate it.

(overlapping voices)

A few people will be way off the mark
either way, but that doesn't matter.

Provided you ask enough people,
the errors should cancel each other out.

- The accuracy of the group
is far greater than the individual.

We call this the wisdom of the crowd.