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Incubate Pictures presents
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In association with Post Carbon Institute
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There's No Tomorrow
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This is the Earth,
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as it looked 90 million years ago.
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Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.
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It was a time of extreme global warming,
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When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.
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They went about their lives,
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secure in their place at the top of the food chain,
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oblivious of the changes taking place around them.
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The continents were drifting apart,
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opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.
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They flooded, becoming seas.
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Algae thrived in the extreme heat,
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poisoning the water.
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They died,
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and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.
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Rivers washed sediment into the seas,
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until the organic remains of the algae were buried.
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As the pressure grew, so did the heat,
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until a chemical reaction transformed the organics
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into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:
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Oil and Natural Gas.
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A similar process occurred on land,
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which produced coal.
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It took nature about 5 million years
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to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.
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The modern way of life
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is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,
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although a surprising number of people take it for granted.
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Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.
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Since then, the world has used approximately half.
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Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.
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At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.
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The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, .
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discovered in 1900
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Many more followed.
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Geologists scoured America.
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They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.
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America produced more oil than any other country,
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enabling it to become an industrial super-power.
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Once an oil well starts producing oil,
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it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.
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Individual wells have different production rates.
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When many wells are averaged together,
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the combined graph looks like a bell curve.
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Typically
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it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery
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for a country to reach its peak of production,
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after which it enters a permanent fall.
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In the 1950s,
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Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert
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predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,
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40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.
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Few believed him.
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However, in 1970,
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American oil production peaked,
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and entered a permanent decline.
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Hubbert was vindicated.
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From this point on,
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America would depend increasingly on imported oil.
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This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,
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and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973
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and 1979 oil shocks.
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The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.
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In spite of advanced technology,
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the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless.
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More recent finds, such as ANWAR,
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would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.
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Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico
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would only supply a few months of domestic demand.
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Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying
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America's energy requirements.
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Evidence is now mounting
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that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.
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Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.
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Over 40 years later,
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the decline in the discovery of new fields
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seems unstoppable.
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54 of the 65 major oil producing nations
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have already peaked in production.
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Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.
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The world will need to bring the equivalent
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of a new Saudi Arabia into production
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every three years
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to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.
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In the nineteen sixties,
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six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.
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Four decades later,
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the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil
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for every one that it finds.
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Once the peak of world oil production is reached,
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demand for oil will outstrip supply,
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and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,
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affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.
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Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
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Even roads are made from asphalt,
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a petroleum product,
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as are the roofs of many homes.
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Large areas would be uninhabitable
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without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.
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Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles
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to work, school and stores.
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Major cities have been zoned with residential
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and commercial areas placed far apart,
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forcing people to drive.
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Suburbia, and many communities
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were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.
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Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,
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or Petro-chemicals,
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are essential in the manufacture of countless products.
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The modern system of agriculture
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is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,
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as are hospitals,
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aviation,
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water distribution systems,
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and the U.S. military,
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which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.
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Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,
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key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.
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The global economy currently depends on endless growth,
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demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.
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We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,
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that even a small disruption in supply
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may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.
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ENERGY
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Energy is the ability to do work.
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The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.
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Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,
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Some fuels contain more energy than others.
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This is called energy density.
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Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.
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The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,
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equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,
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which contains as much energy
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as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants
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working for the next 50 years.
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Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,
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it powers 96% of all transportation.
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In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.
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Most was from Canada,
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Mexico,
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Saudi Arabia,
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Venezuela,
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Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.
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Several factors make oil unique:
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it is energy dense.
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One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent
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of almost three years of human labour.
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It is liquid at room temperature,
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easy to transport
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and usable in small engines.
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To acquire energy, you have to use energy.
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The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.
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This is called EROEI:
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Energy Return on Energy Invested.
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Conventional oil is a good example.
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The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.
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Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.
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The EROEI of oil was 100.
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As the easy to find oil was pumped first,
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exploration moved into deep waters,
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or distant countries,
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using increasing amounts of energy to do so.
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Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,
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and is expensive to refine.
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The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.
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If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,
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it's not worth the effort to get it.
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It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.
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Every time you do so,
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some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.
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For instance, there is unconventional oil:
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Tar Sands and Shale.
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Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.
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Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.
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Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.
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However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,
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reducing their EROEI,
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which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.
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Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,
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pound for pound containing about one third the energy
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of a box of breakfast cereal.
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Coal exists in vast quantities,
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and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.
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The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.
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However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.
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The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,
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as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.
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Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,
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leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.
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Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,
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and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.
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Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,
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causing environmental mayhem.
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Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.
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North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,
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and production peaked in the early 70s.
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If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,
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the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production
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is revealed.
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Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,
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such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.
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Unconventional natural gas is controversial,
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as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.
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Even with Unconventional gas,
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there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.
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Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.
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To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,
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would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.
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At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.
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Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors
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in France and Japan
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have been expensive failures.
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Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.
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Then there are the renewables.
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Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.
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Hydro power is reliable,
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but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.
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Conventional geothermal power plants
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use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.
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They are limited to those areas.
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In the experimental EGS system,
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two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.
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Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,
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then rise up the other, generating power.
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According to a recent MIT report,
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this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.
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Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.
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The energy density of waves varies from region to region.
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Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.
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Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.
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Biofuels are fuels that are grown.
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Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.
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The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.
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Biodiesel and ethanol
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are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.
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The energy profit from these fuels is very low.
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Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.
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Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,
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would require 3% of America's Land.
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To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.
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To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020
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would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.
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Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,
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which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.
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This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.
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All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity
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as two coal power plants.
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The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal
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are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.
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We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels
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to meet current world demand.
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As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.
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Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,
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though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.
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They are also limited to sunny climates,
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requiring large amounts of electricity
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to be transmitted over long distances.
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All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,
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or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.
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When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,
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ask:
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Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?
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What is its energy density?
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Can it be stored or easily distributed?
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Is it reliable or intermittent?
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Can it be scaled to a national level?
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Are there hidden engineering challenges?
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What is the EROEI?
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What are the environmental impacts?
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Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.
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For example: 1 billion barrels of oil
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will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.
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A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.
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As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.
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21.6% is from natural gas,
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1.6% is from petroleum,
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19.4% is from nuclear,
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5.8% is from hydro.
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Other renewables only generate 2.5%.
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Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels
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with a patchwork of alternatives?
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Major technological advances are needed,
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as well as political will and co-operation,
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massive investment,
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international consensus,
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the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,
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including transportation,
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manufacturing industries,
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and agricultural systems,
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as well as officials competent to manage the transition.
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If all these are achieved,
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could the current way of life continue?
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Growth
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These bacteria live in a bottle.
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Their population doubles every minute.
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At 11AM there is one bacterium.
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At 12 noon the bottle is full.
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It is half-full at 11.59
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leaving only enough space for one more doubling.
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The bacteria see the danger.
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They search for new bottles, and find 3.
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They assume that their problem is solved.
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By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.
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By 12.01, the second bottle is full.
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By 12.02, all the bottles are full.
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This is the problem that we face,
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due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.
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When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,
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it experienced unprecedented growth.
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Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.
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At a 1% growth rate,
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an economy will double in 70 years.
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A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.
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At a 10% growth rate,
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an economy will double in only 7 years.
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If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,
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it doubles every 23 years.
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With each doubling, demand for energy and resources
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will exceed all the previous doublings combined.
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The financial system is built on the assumption of growth
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- which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.
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Banks lend money they don't have,
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in effect creating it.
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The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,
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and pay back the debt,
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with an interest payment which requires more growth.
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Due to this creation of debt formed money,
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most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.
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Without continual new and ever larger generations
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of borrowers to produce growth,
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and thus pay off these debts,
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the world economy will collapse.
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Like a Ponzi Scheme,
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the system must expand or die.
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Partly through this debt system,
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the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:
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in GDP,
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damming of rivers,
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water use,
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fertiliser consumption,
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urban population,
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paper consumption,
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motor vehicles,
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communications
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and tourism.
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World population has grown to 7 billion,
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and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.
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On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.
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However, as the Earth is round and finite,
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we will eventually face limits to growth.
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Economic expansion
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has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide
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and methane,
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ozone depletion,
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increases in great floods,
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damage to ocean ecosystems,
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including nitrogen runoff,
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loss of rainforest and woodland,
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increases in domesticated land,
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and species exinctions.
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If we place a single grain of rice
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on the first square of a chessboard,
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double this and place 2 grains on the second,
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double again and place 4 on the third,
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double again and place 8 on the fourth,
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and continue this way,
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putting on each square twice the number of grains
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than were on the previous one,
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by the time we reach the final square,
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we need an astronomical number of grains:
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9 quintillion,
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223 quadrillion,
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372 trillion,
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36 billion,
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854 million,
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776 thousand grains:
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more grain than the human race
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has grown in the last 10,000 years.
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Modern economies,
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like the grains on the chess board,
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doubles every few decades.
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On which square of the chessboard are we?
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Besides energy,
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civilisation demands numerous essential resources:
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fresh water,
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topsoil,
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food,
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forests,
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and many kinds of minerals and metals.
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Growth is limited
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by the essential resource in scarcest supply.
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A barrel is made of staves,
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and like water filling a barrel,
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growth can go no further than the lowest stave,
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or the most limited essential resource.
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Humans currently utilise
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40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.
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Though it might be possible to use 80%,
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we are unlikely to ever use 160%.
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FOOD
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The global food supply
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relies heavily on fossil fuels.
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Before WW1,
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all agriculture was Organic.
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Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides
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there were massive improvements in food production,
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allowing for increases in human population.
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The use of artificial fertilisers
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has fed far more people than would have been possible
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with organic agriculture alone.
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Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,
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transportation,
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refrigeration,
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packaging - in plastic,
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and cooking.
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Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food
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- and food into people.
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About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy
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are used to produce 1 calorie of food.
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In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.
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Besides fossil fuel decline,
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there are several threats to the current system of food production:
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Cheap energy,
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improved technology
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and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.
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Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,
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forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.
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Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers
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poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.
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At this rate,
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all fish populations are projected to collapse
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by 2048.
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Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,
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such as potassium,
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calcium,
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and magnesium.
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Another threat is a lack of water.
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Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.
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The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,
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but can be pumped dry in a few decades,
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like oil wells.
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America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low
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that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.
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Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:
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the accumulation of salt in the soil.
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This is a major cause of desertification.
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Still another threat is topsoil loss.
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200 years ago,
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there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.
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Today, through tillage and poor practices,
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approximately half is gone.
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Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99
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- which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.
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According to Norman Borlaug,
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father of the Green Revolution,
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stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."
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The use of biofuels means that less land
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will be available for food production.
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An area has a finite carrying capacity.
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This is the number of animals or people
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that can live there indefinitely.
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If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,
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it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.
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The world has avoided this die-off
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by finding new lands to cultivate,
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or by increasing production,
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which has been possible largely thanks to oil.
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To continue growth,
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more resources are required than the Earth can provide,
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but no new planets are available.
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In the face of all these challenges,
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global food production must double by 2050
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to feed the growing world population.
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1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.
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There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,
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when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.
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HAPPY ENDING
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The global economy grows exponentially,
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at about 3% a year,
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consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,
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minerals and metals,
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as well as renewable resources
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like water, forests, soils and fish
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faster than they can be replenished.
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Even at a growth rate of 1%,
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an economy will double in 70 years.
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The problem is intensified by other factors:
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Globalisation allows people on one continent
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to buy goods and food made by those on another.
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The lines of supply are long,
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placing strains on a limited oil resource.
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We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.
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Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
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Most Banking Systems are based on debt,
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forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments
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- producing growth.
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What can be done in the face of these problems?
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Many believe that the crisis can be prevented
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through conservation,
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technology,
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smart growth,
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recycling,
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electric cars and hybrids,
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substitution,
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or voting.
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Conservation will save you money,
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but it alone won't save the planet.
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If some people cut back on oil use,
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the reduced demand will drive down the price,
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allowing others to buy it for less.
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In the same fashion,
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a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,
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paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.
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In the 19th century,
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English economist William Stanley Jevons
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realised that Better steam engines made coal
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a more cost effective fuel source,
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which led to the use of more steam engines,
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which increased total coal consumption.
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Growth of use will consume any energy or resources
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saved through conservation.
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Many believe that scientists
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will solve these problems with new technology.
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However, technology is not energy.
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Technology can channel energy into work,
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but it can't replace it.
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It also consumes resources:
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for instance;
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computers are made with one tenth
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of the energy needed to make a car.
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More advanced technologies
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may make the situation worse,
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as many require rare minerals,
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which are also approaching limits.
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For example,
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97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,
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most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.
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These minerals are used in catalytic converters,
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aircraft engines,
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high efficiency magnets and hard drives,
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hybrid car batteries,
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lasers,
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portable X-Rays,
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shielding for nuclear reactors,
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compact discs,
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hybrid vehicle motors,
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low energy light-bulbs,
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fibre optics
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and flat-screen displays.
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China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,
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as demand soars.
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So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,
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as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals
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in ever increasing quantities,
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including Rare Earths.
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Recycling will not solve the problem,
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as it requires energy,
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and the process is not 100% efficient.
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It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;
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a large portion is lost forever as waste.
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Electric cars run on electricity.
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As most power is generated from fossil fuels,
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this is not a solution.
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Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.
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Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.
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There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.
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At current growth rates,
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this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.
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It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,
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regardless of their power source.
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Many economists believe
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that the free market will substitute one energy source
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with another through technological innovation.
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However, the main substitutes to oil
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face their own decline rates.
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Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.
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The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report
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estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare
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for the effects of Peak Oil.
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The issues of energy shortages,
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resource depletion,
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topsoil loss,
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and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:
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Growth.
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As long as our financial system demands endless growth,
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reform is unlikely to succeed.
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What then, will the future look like?
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Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,
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without limits.
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Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,
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or extinction.
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The truth may lie between these extremes.
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It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,
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one in which energy use is a lot less.
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This would mean a harder life for most.
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More manual labour,
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more farm work,
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and local production of goods, food and services.
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What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?
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Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.
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Start walking or cycling.
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Get used to using less electricity.
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Get out of debt.
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Try to avoid banks.
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Instead of shopping at big box stores,
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support local businesses.
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Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.
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Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.
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Learn how to preserve it.
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Consider the use of local currencies
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should the larger economy cease to function,
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and develop greater self sufficiency.
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None of these steps will prevent Collapse,
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but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,
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one in which we will have to be more self reliant,
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as our ancestors once were.