WEBVTT 00:00:07.124 --> 00:00:11.007 Incubate Pictures presents 00:00:14.004 --> 00:00:19.286 In association with Post Carbon Institute 00:00:23.028 --> 00:00:30.720 There's No Tomorrow 00:00:47.079 --> 00:00:49.061 This is the Earth, 00:00:49.057 --> 00:00:51.340 as it looked 90 million years ago. 00:00:51.341 --> 00:00:55.087 Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'. 00:00:55.087 --> 00:00:58.000 It was a time of extreme global warming, 00:00:58.500 --> 00:01:00.500 When dinosaurs still ruled the planet. 00:01:01.100 --> 00:01:02.600 They went about their lives, 00:01:02.800 --> 00:01:05.300 secure in their place at the top of the food chain, 00:01:07.505 --> 00:01:10.100 oblivious of the changes taking place around them. 00:01:11.005 --> 00:01:12.350 The continents were drifting apart, 00:01:12.353 --> 00:01:15.353 opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust. 00:01:15.704 --> 00:01:18.600 They flooded, becoming seas. 00:01:20.037 --> 00:01:22.350 Algae thrived in the extreme heat, 00:01:22.387 --> 00:01:23.500 poisoning the water. 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:26.300 They died, 00:01:26.500 --> 00:01:28.936 and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts. 00:01:32.027 --> 00:01:34.300 Rivers washed sediment into the seas, 00:01:34.500 --> 00:01:36.273 until the organic remains of the algae were buried. 00:01:38.058 --> 00:01:41.040 As the pressure grew, so did the heat, 00:01:41.021 --> 00:01:43.350 until a chemical reaction transformed the organics 00:01:43.421 --> 00:01:45.900 into hydrocarbon fossil fuels: 00:01:46.021 --> 00:01:49.021 Oil and Natural Gas. 00:01:49.109 --> 00:01:51.350 A similar process occurred on land, 00:01:51.642 --> 00:01:53.642 which produced coal. 00:01:55.029 --> 00:01:57.360 It took nature about 5 million years 00:01:57.400 --> 00:02:01.543 to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year. 00:02:02.056 --> 00:02:03.350 The modern way of life 00:02:03.400 --> 00:02:06.350 is dependent on this fossilised sunlight, 00:02:06.500 --> 00:02:10.153 although a surprising number of people take it for granted. 00:02:13.086 --> 00:02:17.950 Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil. 00:02:18.901 --> 00:02:22.547 Since then, the world has used approximately half. 00:02:26.000 --> 00:02:29.142 Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it. 00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:33.061 At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract. 00:02:33.061 --> 00:02:36.363 The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, . 00:02:36.900 --> 00:02:39.060 discovered in 1900 00:02:39.037 --> 00:02:40.500 Many more followed. 00:02:41.032 --> 00:02:43.056 Geologists scoured America. 00:02:43.056 --> 00:02:47.100 They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal. 00:02:48.044 --> 00:02:51.224 America produced more oil than any other country, 00:02:51.450 --> 00:02:54.029 enabling it to become an industrial super-power. 00:02:56.014 --> 00:02:57.981 Once an oil well starts producing oil, 00:02:57.981 --> 00:03:01.325 it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline. 00:03:02.031 --> 00:03:04.947 Individual wells have different production rates. 00:03:05.610 --> 00:03:07.010 When many wells are averaged together, 00:03:07.200 --> 00:03:09.521 the combined graph looks like a bell curve. 00:03:09.521 --> 00:03:11.379 Typically 00:03:11.379 --> 00:03:14.400 it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery 00:03:14.420 --> 00:03:16.500 for a country to reach its peak of production, 00:03:17.323 --> 00:03:19.700 after which it enters a permanent fall. 00:03:20.950 --> 00:03:22.571 In the 1950s, 00:03:22.571 --> 00:03:25.350 Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert 00:03:25.390 --> 00:03:28.580 predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970, 00:03:28.812 --> 00:03:32.788 40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery. 00:03:33.050 --> 00:03:35.000 Few believed him. 00:03:35.044 --> 00:03:37.060 However, in 1970, 00:03:37.060 --> 00:03:39.060 American oil production peaked, 00:03:39.060 --> 00:03:41.060 and entered a permanent decline. 00:03:42.058 --> 00:03:44.500 Hubbert was vindicated. 00:03:45.200 --> 00:03:46.325 From this point on, 00:03:46.157 --> 00:03:49.808 America would depend increasingly on imported oil. 00:03:50.056 --> 00:03:53.084 This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions, 00:03:53.384 --> 00:03:57.099 and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973 00:03:57.099 --> 00:03:59.600 and 1979 oil shocks. 00:04:01.900 --> 00:04:06.085 The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history. 00:04:06.200 --> 00:04:07.958 In spite of advanced technology, 00:04:07.958 --> 00:04:12.726 the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless. 00:04:14.079 --> 00:04:16.906 More recent finds, such as ANWAR, 00:04:17.065 --> 00:04:20.899 would at best provide enough oil for 17 months. 00:04:22.050 --> 00:04:25.218 Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico 00:04:25.218 --> 00:04:28.098 would only supply a few months of domestic demand. 00:04:29.021 --> 00:04:31.766 Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying 00:04:31.766 --> 00:04:34.000 America's energy requirements. 00:04:36.031 --> 00:04:37.107 Evidence is now mounting 00:04:37.107 --> 00:04:40.779 that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it. 00:04:41.091 --> 00:04:46.325 Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s. 00:04:46.900 --> 00:04:47.811 Over 40 years later, 00:04:47.811 --> 00:04:49.900 the decline in the discovery of new fields 00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:51.500 seems unstoppable. 00:04:54.014 --> 00:04:56.500 54 of the 65 major oil producing nations 00:04:56.500 --> 00:04:58.983 have already peaked in production. 00:05:01.054 --> 00:05:04.553 Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future. 00:05:06.095 --> 00:05:07.800 The world will need to bring the equivalent 00:05:07.800 --> 00:05:10.100 of a new Saudi Arabia into production 00:05:10.150 --> 00:05:10.900 every three years 00:05:10.950 --> 00:05:14.027 to make up for declining output in existing oilfields. 00:05:15.900 --> 00:05:16.651 In the nineteen sixties, 00:05:16.651 --> 00:05:20.319 six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used. 00:05:21.100 --> 00:05:22.100 Four decades later, 00:05:22.223 --> 00:05:25.521 the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil 00:05:25.550 --> 00:05:27.223 for every one that it finds. 00:05:29.029 --> 00:05:31.200 Once the peak of world oil production is reached, 00:05:31.300 --> 00:05:33.800 demand for oil will outstrip supply, 00:05:33.886 --> 00:05:36.271 and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly, 00:05:36.271 --> 00:05:39.350 affecting far more than the cost of filling a car. 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:44.027 Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent. 00:05:44.200 --> 00:05:46.349 Even roads are made from asphalt, 00:05:46.350 --> 00:05:47.850 a petroleum product, 00:05:47.942 --> 00:05:49.742 as are the roofs of many homes. 00:05:51.091 --> 00:05:53.067 Large areas would be uninhabitable 00:05:53.138 --> 00:05:57.162 without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer. 00:05:58.091 --> 00:06:00.931 Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles 00:06:00.931 --> 00:06:02.931 to work, school and stores. 00:06:04.039 --> 00:06:06.457 Major cities have been zoned with residential 00:06:06.457 --> 00:06:08.733 and commercial areas placed far apart, 00:06:08.733 --> 00:06:10.600 forcing people to drive. 00:06:11.068 --> 00:06:12.866 Suburbia, and many communities 00:06:12.866 --> 00:06:16.500 were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy. 00:06:19.500 --> 00:06:21.481 Chemicals derived from fossil fuels, 00:06:21.481 --> 00:06:23.245 or Petro-chemicals, 00:06:23.245 --> 00:06:24.245 are essential in the manufacture of countless products. 00:06:28.044 --> 00:06:29.900 The modern system of agriculture 00:06:30.100 --> 00:06:32.115 is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, 00:06:32.450 --> 00:06:33.450 as are hospitals, 00:06:33.650 --> 00:06:34.800 aviation, 00:06:34.950 --> 00:06:36.700 water distribution systems, 00:06:37.000 --> 00:06:38.100 and the U.S. military, 00:06:38.224 --> 00:06:42.936 which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year. 00:06:44.000 --> 00:06:48.000 Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers, 00:06:48.058 --> 00:06:52.828 key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing. 00:06:54.030 --> 00:06:56.900 The global economy currently depends on endless growth, 00:06:56.950 --> 00:07:01.024 demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy. 00:07:01.300 --> 00:07:04.083 We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels, 00:07:04.100 --> 00:07:07.101 that even a small disruption in supply 00:07:07.154 --> 00:07:10.405 may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives. 00:07:17.079 --> 00:07:22.010 ENERGY 00:07:22.900 --> 00:07:26.029 Energy is the ability to do work. 00:07:26.029 --> 00:07:36.000 The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day. 00:07:36.000 --> 00:07:39.095 Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels, 00:07:39.095 --> 00:07:42.010 Some fuels contain more energy than others. 00:07:42.010 --> 00:07:46.040 This is called energy density. 00:07:46.040 --> 00:07:50.010 Of these fuels, oil is the most critical. 00:07:50.010 --> 00:07:51.100 The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year, 00:07:51.528 --> 00:07:54.000 equal to 1 cubic mile of oil, 00:07:54.904 --> 00:07:56.050 which contains as much energy 00:07:56.404 --> 00:07:58.865 as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants 00:07:58.866 --> 00:08:01.865 working for the next 50 years. 00:08:03.008 --> 00:08:07.000 Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity, 00:08:07.573 --> 00:08:10.573 it powers 96% of all transportation. 00:08:12.031 --> 00:08:15.075 In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported. 00:08:16.400 --> 00:08:17.850 Most was from Canada, 00:08:17.900 --> 00:08:19.000 Mexico, 00:08:19.600 --> 00:08:21.296 Saudi Arabia, 00:08:21.296 --> 00:08:22.735 Venezuela, 00:08:22.735 --> 00:08:26.000 Nigeria, Iraq and Angola. 00:08:27.056 --> 00:08:29.350 Several factors make oil unique: 00:08:29.360 --> 00:08:31.250 it is energy dense. 00:08:33.029 --> 00:08:34.900 One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent 00:08:34.910 --> 00:08:37.248 of almost three years of human labour. 00:08:38.500 --> 00:08:39.600 It is liquid at room temperature, 00:08:39.708 --> 00:08:41.600 easy to transport 00:08:41.845 --> 00:08:44.051 and usable in small engines. 00:08:45.079 --> 00:08:48.324 To acquire energy, you have to use energy. 00:08:49.000 --> 00:08:53.208 The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts. 00:08:53.208 --> 00:08:55.625 This is called EROEI: 00:08:55.625 --> 00:08:59.376 Energy Return on Energy Invested. 00:09:01.500 --> 00:09:04.010 Conventional oil is a good example. 00:09:04.010 --> 00:09:07.573 The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first. 00:09:08.900 --> 00:09:14.600 Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100. 00:09:15.040 --> 00:09:18.500 The EROEI of oil was 100. 00:09:19.087 --> 00:09:21.000 As the easy to find oil was pumped first, 00:09:21.100 --> 00:09:23.900 exploration moved into deep waters, 00:09:23.952 --> 00:09:25.731 or distant countries, 00:09:25.731 --> 00:09:28.796 using increasing amounts of energy to do so. 00:09:29.091 --> 00:09:32.000 Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude, 00:09:32.000 --> 00:09:34.647 and is expensive to refine. 00:09:35.900 --> 00:09:39.617 The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10. 00:09:40.033 --> 00:09:43.833 If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel, 00:09:43.833 --> 00:09:46.768 it's not worth the effort to get it. 00:09:50.010 --> 00:09:52.736 It is possible to convert one fuel source into another. 00:09:53.500 --> 00:09:54.050 Every time you do so, 00:09:54.200 --> 00:09:58.239 some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost. 00:09:59.028 --> 00:10:00.900 For instance, there is unconventional oil: 00:10:00.950 --> 00:10:03.417 Tar Sands and Shale. 00:10:04.027 --> 00:10:06.600 Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada. 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:09.900 Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US. 00:10:11.091 --> 00:10:13.600 Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil. 00:10:13.610 --> 00:10:17.090 However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water, 00:10:17.100 --> 00:10:18.900 reducing their EROEI, 00:10:18.905 --> 00:10:23.015 which varies from five, to as low as one and a half. 00:10:24.500 --> 00:10:26.000 Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel, 00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:29.150 pound for pound containing about one third the energy 00:10:29.151 --> 00:10:31.100 of a box of breakfast cereal. 00:10:33.033 --> 00:10:34.700 Coal exists in vast quantities, 00:10:34.705 --> 00:10:38.317 and generates almost half of the planet's electricity. 00:10:39.000 --> 00:10:41.400 The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year. 00:10:41.500 --> 00:10:46.875 However, Global coal production may peak before 2040. 00:10:48.083 --> 00:10:50.750 The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive, 00:10:50.750 --> 00:10:55.940 as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality. 00:10:56.059 --> 00:10:58.667 Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone, 00:10:58.667 --> 00:11:03.115 leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense. 00:11:04.056 --> 00:11:06.700 Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted, 00:11:06.700 --> 00:11:10.801 and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas. 00:11:11.100 --> 00:11:14.300 Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits, 00:11:14.301 --> 00:11:17.047 causing environmental mayhem. 00:11:20.014 --> 00:11:22.760 Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal. 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:27.400 North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s, 00:11:27.401 --> 00:11:30.283 and production peaked in the early 70s. 00:11:31.029 --> 00:11:34.125 If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years, 00:11:34.125 --> 00:11:38.600 the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production 00:11:38.601 --> 00:11:40.000 is revealed. 00:11:41.044 --> 00:11:44.792 Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas, 00:11:44.792 --> 00:11:50.066 such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead. 00:11:51.044 --> 00:11:54.200 Unconventional natural gas is controversial, 00:11:54.202 --> 00:11:57.566 as it needs high energy prices to be profitable. 00:11:58.061 --> 00:11:59.750 Even with Unconventional gas, 00:11:59.750 --> 00:12:05.229 there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030. 00:12:07.900 --> 00:12:10.917 Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist. 00:12:12.027 --> 00:12:15.833 To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels, 00:12:15.833 --> 00:12:19.230 would require 10,000 nuclear power plants. 00:12:19.250 --> 00:12:24.300 At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years. 00:12:25.000 --> 00:12:29.083 Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors 00:12:29.083 --> 00:12:31.107 in France and Japan 00:12:31.108 --> 00:12:33.440 have been expensive failures. 00:12:33.687 --> 00:12:37.737 Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles. 00:12:39.022 --> 00:12:40.300 Then there are the renewables. 00:12:40.302 --> 00:12:45.353 Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent. 00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:47.400 Hydro power is reliable, 00:12:47.405 --> 00:12:50.856 but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed. 00:12:52.035 --> 00:12:54.002 Conventional geothermal power plants 00:12:54.003 --> 00:12:56.900 use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface. 00:12:57.000 --> 00:12:59.583 They are limited to those areas. 00:13:01.029 --> 00:13:02.750 In the experimental EGS system, 00:13:02.750 --> 00:13:06.042 two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep. 00:13:06.043 --> 00:13:09.167 Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures, 00:13:09.167 --> 00:13:12.451 then rise up the other, generating power. 00:13:13.091 --> 00:13:15.300 According to a recent MIT report, 00:13:15.301 --> 00:13:21.181 this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050. 00:13:22.091 --> 00:13:25.333 Wave power is restricted to coastal areas. 00:13:25.333 --> 00:13:29.400 The energy density of waves varies from region to region. 00:13:31.014 --> 00:13:35.092 Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging. 00:13:35.092 --> 00:13:38.792 Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines. 00:13:41.004 --> 00:13:42.708 Biofuels are fuels that are grown. 00:13:43.095 --> 00:13:46.445 Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly. 00:13:46.445 --> 00:13:49.958 The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year. 00:13:51.437 --> 00:13:52.917 Biodiesel and ethanol 00:13:52.917 --> 00:13:57.033 are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture. 00:13:57.500 --> 00:14:00.792 The energy profit from these fuels is very low. 00:14:02.010 --> 00:14:05.091 Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol. 00:14:05.091 --> 00:14:10.208 Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020, 00:14:10.208 --> 00:14:13.603 would require 3% of America's Land. 00:14:15.014 --> 00:14:19.083 To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food. 00:14:20.031 --> 00:14:23.333 To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020 00:14:23.333 --> 00:14:27.080 would take twice as much land as is used to grow food. 00:14:28.862 --> 00:14:33.500 Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water, 00:14:33.500 --> 00:14:36.917 which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen. 00:14:36.917 --> 00:14:39.600 This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely. 00:14:42.500 --> 00:14:45.625 All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity 00:14:45.625 --> 00:14:47.800 as two coal power plants. 00:14:48.800 --> 00:14:51.000 The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal 00:14:51.003 --> 00:14:54.400 are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel. 00:14:56.100 --> 00:15:00.000 We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels 00:15:00.000 --> 00:15:02.118 to meet current world demand. 00:15:02.300 --> 00:15:06.700 As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles. 00:15:08.600 --> 00:15:12.042 Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential, 00:15:12.042 --> 00:15:16.250 though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating. 00:15:17.900 --> 00:15:19.150 They are also limited to sunny climates, 00:15:19.300 --> 00:15:21.500 requiring large amounts of electricity 00:15:21.501 --> 00:15:24.433 to be transmitted over long distances. 00:15:26.054 --> 00:15:29.458 All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery, 00:15:29.458 --> 00:15:34.371 or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil. 00:15:36.037 --> 00:15:38.890 When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions, 00:15:38.900 --> 00:15:40.042 ask: 00:15:40.087 --> 00:15:44.200 Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention? 00:15:45.000 --> 00:15:46.875 What is its energy density? 00:15:47.500 --> 00:15:49.958 Can it be stored or easily distributed? 00:15:51.004 --> 00:15:53.083 Is it reliable or intermittent? 00:15:53.083 --> 00:15:56.000 Can it be scaled to a national level? 00:15:56.300 --> 00:15:58.800 Are there hidden engineering challenges? 00:15:59.800 --> 00:16:02.095 What is the EROEI? 00:16:02.095 --> 00:16:04.700 What are the environmental impacts? 00:16:04.901 --> 00:16:07.700 Remember that large numbers can be deceptive. 00:16:08.044 --> 00:16:09.900 For example: 1 billion barrels of oil 00:16:09.901 --> 00:16:13.868 will satisfy global demand for only 12 days. 00:16:15.058 --> 00:16:19.000 A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge. 00:16:19.700 --> 00:16:24.417 As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity. 00:16:24.417 --> 00:16:27.289 21.6% is from natural gas, 00:16:27.289 --> 00:16:30.215 1.6% is from petroleum, 00:16:30.215 --> 00:16:32.676 19.4% is from nuclear, 00:16:32.676 --> 00:16:34.900 5.8% is from hydro. 00:16:35.087 --> 00:16:39.000 Other renewables only generate 2.5%. 00:16:40.037 --> 00:16:43.125 Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels 00:16:43.125 --> 00:16:45.700 with a patchwork of alternatives? 00:16:46.400 --> 00:16:48.700 Major technological advances are needed, 00:16:48.900 --> 00:16:51.500 as well as political will and co-operation, 00:16:51.900 --> 00:16:53.400 massive investment, 00:16:53.542 --> 00:16:55.500 international consensus, 00:16:56.050 --> 00:16:59.300 the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy, 00:16:59.301 --> 00:17:01.668 including transportation, 00:17:02.027 --> 00:17:03.000 manufacturing industries, 00:17:03.001 --> 00:17:05.083 and agricultural systems, 00:17:05.083 --> 00:17:08.700 as well as officials competent to manage the transition. 00:17:10.000 --> 00:17:11.523 If all these are achieved, 00:17:11.523 --> 00:17:14.523 could the current way of life continue? 00:17:19.004 --> 00:17:21.009 Growth 00:17:21.009 --> 00:17:23.300 These bacteria live in a bottle. 00:17:24.008 --> 00:17:25.800 Their population doubles every minute. 00:17:27.000 --> 00:17:29.300 At 11AM there is one bacterium. 00:17:30.087 --> 00:17:32.100 At 12 noon the bottle is full. 00:17:33.081 --> 00:17:35.295 It is half-full at 11.59 00:17:35.295 --> 00:17:37.985 leaving only enough space for one more doubling. 00:17:38.900 --> 00:17:41.033 The bacteria see the danger. 00:17:41.033 --> 00:17:44.056 They search for new bottles, and find 3. 00:17:44.056 --> 00:17:47.083 They assume that their problem is solved. 00:17:47.083 --> 00:17:49.600 By 12 noon, the first bottle is full. 00:17:50.000 --> 00:17:53.136 By 12.01, the second bottle is full. 00:17:54.000 --> 00:17:56.820 By 12.02, all the bottles are full. 00:17:57.900 --> 00:17:59.928 This is the problem that we face, 00:17:59.928 --> 00:18:03.200 due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth. 00:18:06.061 --> 00:18:09.280 When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources, 00:18:09.280 --> 00:18:12.700 it experienced unprecedented growth. 00:18:14.029 --> 00:18:17.326 Even low growth rates produce large increases over time. 00:18:18.600 --> 00:18:20.100 At a 1% growth rate, 00:18:20.150 --> 00:18:22.900 an economy will double in 70 years. 00:18:23.500 --> 00:18:27.087 A 2% rate doubles in 35 years. 00:18:27.087 --> 00:18:29.264 At a 10% growth rate, 00:18:29.264 --> 00:18:32.350 an economy will double in only 7 years. 00:18:33.400 --> 00:18:36.750 If an economy grows at the current average of 3%, 00:18:36.750 --> 00:18:39.750 it doubles every 23 years. 00:18:40.600 --> 00:18:44.023 With each doubling, demand for energy and resources 00:18:44.023 --> 00:18:47.023 will exceed all the previous doublings combined. 00:18:48.079 --> 00:18:52.050 The financial system is built on the assumption of growth 00:18:52.050 --> 00:18:55.778 - which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it. 00:18:56.700 --> 00:18:58.469 Banks lend money they don't have, 00:18:58.469 --> 00:19:00.600 in effect creating it. 00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:04.816 The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses, 00:19:04.816 --> 00:19:06.200 and pay back the debt, 00:19:06.204 --> 00:19:09.384 with an interest payment which requires more growth. 00:19:10.500 --> 00:19:13.019 Due to this creation of debt formed money, 00:19:13.019 --> 00:19:17.616 most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid. 00:19:19.056 --> 00:19:22.100 Without continual new and ever larger generations 00:19:22.101 --> 00:19:24.200 of borrowers to produce growth, 00:19:24.500 --> 00:19:25.871 and thus pay off these debts, 00:19:25.871 --> 00:19:28.300 the world economy will collapse. 00:19:30.010 --> 00:19:31.148 Like a Ponzi Scheme, 00:19:31.148 --> 00:19:34.148 the system must expand or die. 00:19:35.500 --> 00:19:37.450 Partly through this debt system, 00:19:37.500 --> 00:19:40.400 the effects of economic growth have been spectacular: 00:19:40.800 --> 00:19:41.600 in GDP, 00:19:41.601 --> 00:19:43.112 damming of rivers, 00:19:43.112 --> 00:19:44.150 water use, 00:19:44.183 --> 00:19:46.456 fertiliser consumption, 00:19:46.456 --> 00:19:47.762 urban population, 00:19:47.762 --> 00:19:49.669 paper consumption, 00:19:49.669 --> 00:19:51.105 motor vehicles, 00:19:51.105 --> 00:19:52.411 communications 00:19:52.411 --> 00:19:54.100 and tourism. 00:19:55.068 --> 00:19:57.453 World population has grown to 7 billion, 00:19:57.453 --> 00:20:01.189 and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050. 00:20:02.041 --> 00:20:05.500 On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem. 00:20:06.300 --> 00:20:08.686 However, as the Earth is round and finite, 00:20:08.686 --> 00:20:11.686 we will eventually face limits to growth. 00:20:13.084 --> 00:20:14.302 Economic expansion 00:20:14.302 --> 00:20:18.300 has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide 00:20:18.301 --> 00:20:19.100 and methane, 00:20:19.101 --> 00:20:20.702 ozone depletion, 00:20:20.870 --> 00:20:22.833 increases in great floods, 00:20:22.833 --> 00:20:25.833 damage to ocean ecosystems, 00:20:25.874 --> 00:20:27.703 including nitrogen runoff, 00:20:27.703 --> 00:20:30.759 loss of rainforest and woodland, 00:20:30.759 --> 00:20:33.110 increases in domesticated land, 00:20:33.110 --> 00:20:36.110 and species exinctions. 00:20:38.052 --> 00:20:40.200 If we place a single grain of rice 00:20:40.201 --> 00:20:42.070 on the first square of a chessboard, 00:20:42.070 --> 00:20:45.200 double this and place 2 grains on the second, 00:20:46.014 --> 00:20:48.600 double again and place 4 on the third, 00:20:49.100 --> 00:20:51.470 double again and place 8 on the fourth, 00:20:51.500 --> 00:20:52.650 and continue this way, 00:20:52.650 --> 00:20:55.471 putting on each square twice the number of grains 00:20:55.471 --> 00:20:57.100 than were on the previous one, 00:20:57.101 --> 00:20:59.001 by the time we reach the final square, 00:20:59.002 --> 00:21:01.244 we need an astronomical number of grains: 00:21:03.800 --> 00:21:05.215 9 quintillion, 00:21:05.215 --> 00:21:07.435 223 quadrillion, 00:21:07.435 --> 00:21:09.290 372 trillion, 00:21:09.290 --> 00:21:11.275 36 billion, 00:21:11.275 --> 00:21:13.051 854 million, 00:21:13.051 --> 00:21:16.552 776 thousand grains: 00:21:17.044 --> 00:21:18.563 more grain than the human race 00:21:18.563 --> 00:21:21.563 has grown in the last 10,000 years. 00:21:22.900 --> 00:21:23.709 Modern economies, 00:21:23.709 --> 00:21:25.407 like the grains on the chess board, 00:21:25.407 --> 00:21:27.300 doubles every few decades. 00:21:27.700 --> 00:21:30.600 On which square of the chessboard are we? 00:21:33.087 --> 00:21:34.759 Besides energy, 00:21:34.759 --> 00:21:37.659 civilisation demands numerous essential resources: 00:21:37.950 --> 00:21:39.252 fresh water, 00:21:39.252 --> 00:21:40.480 topsoil, 00:21:40.480 --> 00:21:41.316 food, 00:21:41.316 --> 00:21:42.126 forests, 00:21:42.126 --> 00:21:44.500 and many kinds of minerals and metals. 00:21:45.087 --> 00:21:46.150 Growth is limited 00:21:46.151 --> 00:21:49.208 by the essential resource in scarcest supply. 00:21:51.400 --> 00:21:52.313 A barrel is made of staves, 00:21:52.313 --> 00:21:54.978 and like water filling a barrel, 00:21:54.978 --> 00:21:57.792 growth can go no further than the lowest stave, 00:21:57.792 --> 00:22:00.900 or the most limited essential resource. 00:22:02.300 --> 00:22:03.833 Humans currently utilise 00:22:03.833 --> 00:22:07.300 40% of all photosynthesis n Earth. 00:22:08.021 --> 00:22:09.737 Though it might be possible to use 80%, 00:22:09.737 --> 00:22:13.500 we are unlikely to ever use 160%. 00:22:23.242 --> 00:22:25.900 FOOD 00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:28.180 The global food supply 00:22:28.180 --> 00:22:29.900 relies heavily on fossil fuels. 00:22:32.040 --> 00:22:33.143 Before WW1, 00:22:33.143 --> 00:22:35.468 all agriculture was Organic. 00:22:36.040 --> 00:22:39.804 Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides 00:22:39.804 --> 00:22:42.500 there were massive improvements in food production, 00:22:42.600 --> 00:22:45.300 allowing for increases in human population. 00:22:48.095 --> 00:22:49.391 The use of artificial fertilisers 00:22:49.391 --> 00:22:51.600 has fed far more people than would have been possible 00:22:51.601 --> 00:22:54.875 with organic agriculture alone. 00:22:56.050 --> 00:22:58.351 Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment, 00:22:58.351 --> 00:22:59.814 transportation, 00:22:59.750 --> 00:23:00.708 refrigeration, 00:23:01.068 --> 00:23:02.557 packaging - in plastic, 00:23:02.557 --> 00:23:04.673 and cooking. 00:23:05.000 --> 00:23:08.878 Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food 00:23:08.878 --> 00:23:10.600 - and food into people. 00:23:12.004 --> 00:23:13.920 About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy 00:23:13.920 --> 00:23:16.920 are used to produce 1 calorie of food. 00:23:19.300 --> 00:23:25.022 In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer. 00:23:30.083 --> 00:23:31.527 Besides fossil fuel decline, 00:23:31.527 --> 00:23:34.896 there are several threats to the current system of food production: 00:23:35.200 --> 00:23:36.333 Cheap energy, 00:23:36.333 --> 00:23:37.927 improved technology 00:23:37.927 --> 00:23:41.349 and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches. 00:23:43.091 --> 00:23:45.708 Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties, 00:23:45.708 --> 00:23:48.708 forcing fishermen to move into deep waters. 00:23:53.083 --> 00:23:55.716 Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers 00:23:55.716 --> 00:23:59.500 poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones. 00:24:00.500 --> 00:24:01.306 At this rate, 00:24:01.306 --> 00:24:03.971 all fish populations are projected to collapse 00:24:03.971 --> 00:24:05.930 by 2048. 00:24:07.091 --> 00:24:11.311 Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients, 00:24:11.311 --> 00:24:12.356 such as potassium, 00:24:12.356 --> 00:24:13.218 calcium, 00:24:13.218 --> 00:24:14.500 and magnesium. 00:24:18.027 --> 00:24:20.095 Another threat is a lack of water. 00:24:20.200 --> 00:24:25.200 Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation. 00:24:26.050 --> 00:24:28.891 The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up, 00:24:28.891 --> 00:24:30.772 but can be pumped dry in a few decades, 00:24:30.772 --> 00:24:32.600 like oil wells. 00:24:34.029 --> 00:24:36.911 America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low 00:24:36.911 --> 00:24:40.750 that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming. 00:24:42.056 --> 00:24:46.576 Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation: 00:24:47.000 --> 00:24:48.600 the accumulation of salt in the soil. 00:24:49.300 --> 00:24:51.500 This is a major cause of desertification. 00:24:53.078 --> 00:24:56.100 Still another threat is topsoil loss. 00:24:56.500 --> 00:24:57.652 200 years ago, 00:24:57.652 --> 00:25:00.600 there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies. 00:25:01.100 --> 00:25:03.333 Today, through tillage and poor practices, 00:25:03.333 --> 00:25:06.333 approximately half is gone. 00:25:08.800 --> 00:25:13.273 Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99 00:25:13.273 --> 00:25:17.700 - which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest. 00:25:19.010 --> 00:25:20.083 According to Norman Borlaug, 00:25:20.083 --> 00:25:22.207 father of the Green Revolution, 00:25:22.300 --> 00:25:27.902 stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction." 00:25:29.079 --> 00:25:32.000 The use of biofuels means that less land 00:25:32.001 --> 00:25:35.108 will be available for food production. 00:25:37.054 --> 00:25:39.200 An area has a finite carrying capacity. 00:25:40.000 --> 00:25:41.642 This is the number of animals or people 00:25:41.642 --> 00:25:43.800 that can live there indefinitely. 00:25:44.083 --> 00:25:47.494 If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area, 00:25:47.494 --> 00:25:51.700 it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits. 00:25:53.029 --> 00:25:54.167 The world has avoided this die-off 00:25:54.167 --> 00:25:56.400 by finding new lands to cultivate, 00:25:56.400 --> 00:25:57.875 or by increasing production, 00:25:57.875 --> 00:26:00.980 which has been possible largely thanks to oil. 00:26:01.000 --> 00:26:03.638 To continue growth, 00:26:03.638 --> 00:26:06.900 more resources are required than the Earth can provide, 00:26:07.091 --> 00:26:09.900 but no new planets are available. 00:26:11.079 --> 00:26:13.251 In the face of all these challenges, 00:26:13.300 --> 00:26:16.417 global food production must double by 2050 00:26:16.301 --> 00:26:18.900 to feed the growing world population. 00:26:21.044 --> 00:26:23.667 1 billion people are already malnourished or starving. 00:26:24.200 --> 00:26:27.600 There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come, 00:26:28.094 --> 00:26:31.900 when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline. 00:26:41.054 --> 00:26:42.600 HAPPY ENDING 00:26:45.988 --> 00:26:48.100 The global economy grows exponentially, 00:26:48.101 --> 00:26:50.000 at about 3% a year, 00:26:50.056 --> 00:26:53.270 consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels, 00:26:53.270 --> 00:26:54.900 minerals and metals, 00:26:54.901 --> 00:26:56.849 as well as renewable resources 00:26:56.849 --> 00:27:00.271 like water, forests, soils and fish 00:27:00.280 --> 00:27:02.335 faster than they can be replenished. 00:27:03.900 --> 00:27:05.574 Even at a growth rate of 1%, 00:27:05.574 --> 00:27:08.200 an economy will double in 70 years. 00:27:10.016 --> 00:27:13.058 The problem is intensified by other factors: 00:27:13.058 --> 00:27:15.500 Globalisation allows people on one continent 00:27:15.500 --> 00:27:18.500 to buy goods and food made by those on another. 00:27:19.095 --> 00:27:20.751 The lines of supply are long, 00:27:20.751 --> 00:27:23.751 placing strains on a limited oil resource. 00:27:26.057 --> 00:27:29.333 We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities. 00:27:30.700 --> 00:27:32.800 Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent. 00:27:34.033 --> 00:27:36.600 Most Banking Systems are based on debt, 00:27:36.650 --> 00:27:40.029 forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments 00:27:40.200 --> 00:27:41.800 - producing growth. 00:27:43.095 --> 00:27:46.200 What can be done in the face of these problems? 00:27:47.029 --> 00:27:48.600 Many believe that the crisis can be prevented 00:27:48.600 --> 00:27:50.250 through conservation, 00:27:50.251 --> 00:27:51.079 technology, 00:27:51.079 --> 00:27:52.568 smart growth, 00:27:52.568 --> 00:27:53.800 recycling, 00:27:53.801 --> 00:27:55.100 electric cars and hybrids, 00:27:55.101 --> 00:27:57.061 substitution, 00:27:57.061 --> 00:27:58.300 or voting. 00:28:00.091 --> 00:28:01.371 Conservation will save you money, 00:28:01.371 --> 00:28:03.696 but it alone won't save the planet. 00:28:05.000 --> 00:28:07.250 If some people cut back on oil use, 00:28:07.300 --> 00:28:09.900 the reduced demand will drive down the price, 00:28:09.901 --> 00:28:12.167 allowing others to buy it for less. 00:28:13.000 --> 00:28:13.583 In the same fashion, 00:28:13.583 --> 00:28:17.400 a more efficient engine that uses less energy will, 00:28:17.401 --> 00:28:20.900 paradoxically, lead to greater energy use. 00:28:21.900 --> 00:28:22.896 In the 19th century, 00:28:22.896 --> 00:28:25.535 English economist William Stanley Jevons 00:28:25.535 --> 00:28:28.100 realised that Better steam engines made coal 00:28:28.101 --> 00:28:31.000 a more cost effective fuel source, 00:28:31.001 --> 00:28:32.797 which led to the use of more steam engines, 00:28:32.797 --> 00:28:35.800 which increased total coal consumption. 00:28:37.087 --> 00:28:40.200 Growth of use will consume any energy or resources 00:28:40.201 --> 00:28:42.400 saved through conservation. 00:28:48.029 --> 00:28:48.708 Many believe that scientists 00:28:48.708 --> 00:28:51.990 will solve these problems with new technology. 00:28:52.500 --> 00:28:55.105 However, technology is not energy. 00:28:56.048 --> 00:28:57.900 Technology can channel energy into work, 00:28:57.901 --> 00:28:59.500 but it can't replace it. 00:29:00.300 --> 00:29:02.393 It also consumes resources: 00:29:02.393 --> 00:29:03.042 for instance; 00:29:03.042 --> 00:29:04.750 computers are made with one tenth 00:29:04.751 --> 00:29:07.708 of the energy needed to make a car. 00:29:08.872 --> 00:29:10.250 More advanced technologies 00:29:10.251 --> 00:29:12.150 may make the situation worse, 00:29:12.151 --> 00:29:14.436 as many require rare minerals, 00:29:14.436 --> 00:29:16.200 which are also approaching limits. 00:29:17.058 --> 00:29:17.832 For example, 00:29:17.832 --> 00:29:21.724 97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China, 00:29:21.724 --> 00:29:24.800 most from a single mine in inner Mongolia. 00:29:26.500 --> 00:29:28.833 These minerals are used in catalytic converters, 00:29:28.833 --> 00:29:30.542 aircraft engines, 00:29:30.542 --> 00:29:33.250 high efficiency magnets and hard drives, 00:29:33.250 --> 00:29:35.151 hybrid car batteries, 00:29:35.151 --> 00:29:36.353 lasers, 00:29:36.353 --> 00:29:37.583 portable X-Rays, 00:29:37.583 --> 00:29:39.801 shielding for nuclear reactors, 00:29:39.801 --> 00:29:41.708 compact discs, 00:29:41.708 --> 00:29:43.550 hybrid vehicle motors, 00:29:43.551 --> 00:29:45.313 low energy light-bulbs, 00:29:45.313 --> 00:29:46.567 fibre optics 00:29:46.567 --> 00:29:48.200 and flat-screen displays. 00:29:49.083 --> 00:29:52.549 China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals, 00:29:52.549 --> 00:29:54.300 as demand soars. 00:29:57.083 --> 00:30:00.750 So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help, 00:30:00.750 --> 00:30:03.700 as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals 00:30:03.701 --> 00:30:05.375 in ever increasing quantities, 00:30:05.375 --> 00:30:07.517 including Rare Earths. 00:30:08.900 --> 00:30:10.500 Recycling will not solve the problem, 00:30:10.501 --> 00:30:11.582 as it requires energy, 00:30:11.583 --> 00:30:14.400 and the process is not 100% efficient. 00:30:16.010 --> 00:30:19.820 It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled; 00:30:19.820 --> 00:30:22.820 a large portion is lost forever as waste. 00:30:25.056 --> 00:30:27.600 Electric cars run on electricity. 00:30:28.054 --> 00:30:30.557 As most power is generated from fossil fuels, 00:30:30.557 --> 00:30:32.600 this is not a solution. 00:30:33.095 --> 00:30:37.270 Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production. 00:30:37.270 --> 00:30:41.200 Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum. 00:30:43.040 --> 00:30:47.333 There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010. 00:30:47.400 --> 00:30:49.042 At current growth rates, 00:30:49.042 --> 00:30:52.950 this number would reach 2 billion by 2025. 00:30:53.900 --> 00:30:57.200 It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long, 00:30:57.201 --> 00:30:59.800 regardless of their power source. 00:31:01.031 --> 00:31:02.500 Many economists believe 00:31:02.687 --> 00:31:05.326 that the free market will substitute one energy source 00:31:05.326 --> 00:31:07.400 with another through technological innovation. 00:31:08.100 --> 00:31:10.200 However, the main substitutes to oil 00:31:10.201 --> 00:31:12.292 face their own decline rates. 00:31:13.900 --> 00:31:18.570 Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition. 00:31:20.000 --> 00:31:21.833 The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report 00:31:21.833 --> 00:31:25.350 estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare 00:31:25.351 --> 00:31:27.900 for the effects of Peak Oil. 00:31:28.900 --> 00:31:31.170 The issues of energy shortages, 00:31:31.171 --> 00:31:33.068 resource depletion, 00:31:33.068 --> 00:31:34.750 topsoil loss, 00:31:34.750 --> 00:31:39.180 and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem: 00:31:40.500 --> 00:31:42.500 Growth. 00:31:43.700 --> 00:31:46.333 As long as our financial system demands endless growth, 00:31:46.333 --> 00:31:49.300 reform is unlikely to succeed. 00:31:49.927 --> 00:31:52.542 What then, will the future look like? 00:31:54.033 --> 00:31:56.375 Optimists believe that growth will continue forever, 00:31:56.375 --> 00:31:57.806 without limits. 00:31:59.044 --> 00:32:02.125 Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age, 00:32:02.125 --> 00:32:04.100 or extinction. 00:32:05.031 --> 00:32:06.417 The truth may lie between these extremes. 00:32:07.417 --> 00:32:11.964 It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state, 00:32:12.100 --> 00:32:14.792 one in which energy use is a lot less. 00:32:16.029 --> 00:32:18.095 This would mean a harder life for most. 00:32:18.095 --> 00:32:18.708 More manual labour, 00:32:18.708 --> 00:32:20.417 more farm work, 00:32:20.417 --> 00:32:24.111 and local production of goods, food and services. 00:32:25.079 --> 00:32:28.500 What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future? 00:32:29.083 --> 00:32:33.292 Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places. 00:32:34.104 --> 00:32:35.762 Start walking or cycling. 00:32:36.500 --> 00:32:39.079 Get used to using less electricity. 00:32:40.029 --> 00:32:41.100 Get out of debt. 00:32:41.900 --> 00:32:42.893 Try to avoid banks. 00:32:43.400 --> 00:32:45.300 Instead of shopping at big box stores, 00:32:45.301 --> 00:32:48.095 support local businesses. 00:32:48.150 --> 00:32:51.600 Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets. 00:32:51.601 --> 00:32:55.417 Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food. 00:32:55.450 --> 00:32:57.100 Learn how to preserve it. 00:32:58.400 --> 00:33:00.000 Consider the use of local currencies 00:33:00.000 --> 00:33:02.500 should the larger economy cease to function, 00:33:02.500 --> 00:33:05.500 and develop greater self sufficiency. 00:33:07.016 --> 00:33:08.500 None of these steps will prevent Collapse, 00:33:08.500 --> 00:33:12.500 but they might improve your chances in a low energy future, 00:33:13.091 --> 00:33:15.417 one in which we will have to be more self reliant, 00:33:15.417 --> 00:33:18.417 as our ancestors once were.