Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and how we can stop them
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0:01 - 0:03As you've probably noticed,
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0:03 - 0:06in recent years, a lot
of western forests have burned -
0:06 - 0:10in large and destructive wildfires.
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0:11 - 0:12If you're like me --
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0:12 - 0:17this western landscape
is actually why my family and I live here. -
0:18 - 0:20And as a scientist and a father,
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0:20 - 0:24I've become deeply concerned
about what we're leaving behind -
0:24 - 0:27for our kids, and now my five grandkids.
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0:29 - 0:34In the US, an area that's larger
than the state of Oregon has burned -
0:34 - 0:35in just the last 10 years,
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0:36 - 0:40and tens of thousands of homes
have been destroyed. -
0:41 - 0:46Acres burned and homes destroyed
have steadily increased -
0:46 - 0:49over the last three decades,
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0:50 - 0:56and individual fires that are bigger
than 100,000 acres -- -
0:56 - 0:57they're actually on the rise.
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0:57 - 1:00These are what we call "megafires."
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1:01 - 1:06Megafires are the result of the way
we've managed this western landscape -
1:06 - 1:09over the last 150 years
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1:09 - 1:11in a steadily warming climate.
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1:12 - 1:16Much of the destruction
that we are currently seeing -
1:16 - 1:18could actually have been avoided.
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1:19 - 1:22I've spent my entire career
studying these western landscapes, -
1:22 - 1:24and the science is pretty clear:
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1:25 - 1:29if we don't change a few
of our fire-management habits, -
1:30 - 1:33we're going to lose many more
of our beloved forests. -
1:34 - 1:37Some won't recover in our lifetime
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1:37 - 1:40or my kids' lifetime.
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1:40 - 1:44It's time we confront
some tough truths about wildfires, -
1:44 - 1:48and come to understand that we need
to learn to better live with them -
1:49 - 1:52and change how they come to our forests,
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1:53 - 1:54our homes
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1:55 - 1:57and our communities.
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1:58 - 1:59So why is this happening?
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2:00 - 2:02Well, that's what I want
to talk to you about today. -
2:04 - 2:06You see this forest?
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2:09 - 2:10Isn't it beautiful?
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2:18 - 2:20Well, the forests that we see today
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2:21 - 2:27look nothing like the forests
of 100 or 150 years ago. -
2:27 - 2:31Thankfully, panoramic photos
were taken in the 1930s -
2:31 - 2:35from thousands of western
mountaintop lookouts, -
2:35 - 2:37and they show a fair approximation
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2:37 - 2:39of the forest that we inherited.
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2:40 - 2:45The best word to describe
these forests of old is "patchy." -
2:45 - 2:49The historical forest landscape
was this constantly evolving patchwork -
2:49 - 2:53of open and closed
canopy forests of all ages, -
2:53 - 2:57and there was so much evidence of fire.
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2:58 - 3:01And most fires were pretty small
by today's standards. -
3:02 - 3:06And it's important to understand
that this landscape was open, -
3:06 - 3:09with meadows and open canopy forests,
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3:09 - 3:11and it was the grasses of the meadows
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3:11 - 3:14and in the grassy understories
of the open forest -
3:14 - 3:17that many of the wildfires were carried.
-
3:20 - 3:24There were other forces at work, too,
shaping this historical patchwork: -
3:24 - 3:28for example, topography,
whether a place faces north or south -
3:28 - 3:30or it's on a ridge top
or in a valley bottom; -
3:30 - 3:33elevation, how far up the mountain it is;
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3:33 - 3:38and weather, whether a place
gets a lot of snow and rain, -
3:38 - 3:40sunlight and warmth.
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3:40 - 3:43These things all worked together
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3:43 - 3:45to shape the way the forest grew.
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3:46 - 3:51And the way the forest grew
shaped the way fire behaved -
3:51 - 3:53on the landscape.
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3:53 - 3:59There was crosstalk
between the patterns and the processes. -
3:59 - 4:01You can see the new dry forest.
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4:01 - 4:04Trees were open grown
and fairly far apart. -
4:04 - 4:06Fires were frequent here,
and when they occurred, -
4:06 - 4:08they weren't that severe,
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4:08 - 4:09while further up the mountain,
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4:09 - 4:11in the moist and the cold forests,
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4:12 - 4:15trees were more densely grown
and fires were less frequent, -
4:15 - 4:18but when they occurred,
they were quite a bit more severe. -
4:18 - 4:22These different forest types,
the environments that they grew in -
4:22 - 4:25and fire severity --
they all worked together -
4:25 - 4:28to shape this historical patchwork.
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4:28 - 4:32And there was so much power
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4:32 - 4:33in this patchwork.
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4:34 - 4:36It provided a natural mechanism
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4:36 - 4:40to resist the spread of future fires
across the landscape. -
4:41 - 4:43Once a patch of forest burned,
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4:43 - 4:46it helped to prevent the flow
of fire across the landscape. -
4:47 - 4:49A way to think about it is,
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4:49 - 4:53the burned patches
helped the rest of the forest -
4:53 - 4:55to be forest.
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4:57 - 4:59Let's add humans to the mix.
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4:59 - 5:03For 10,000 years, Native Americans
lived on this landscape, -
5:03 - 5:06and they intentionally burned it -- a lot.
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5:07 - 5:11They used fire to burn meadows
and to thin certain forests -
5:11 - 5:13so they could grow more food.
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5:13 - 5:16They used fire to increase graze
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5:16 - 5:20for the deer and the elk
and the bison that they hunted. -
5:20 - 5:23And most importantly, they figured out
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5:23 - 5:25if they burned in the spring and the fall,
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5:25 - 5:29they could avoid the out-of-control
fires of summer. -
5:30 - 5:34European settlement -- it occurred
much later, in the mid-1800s, -
5:34 - 5:38and by the 1880s, livestock
grazing was in high gear. -
5:38 - 5:42I mean, if you think about it,
the cattle and the sheep ate the grasses -
5:42 - 5:46which had been the conveyer belt
for the historical fires, -
5:46 - 5:50and this prevented once-frequent fires
from thinning out trees -
5:50 - 5:52and burning up dead wood.
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5:53 - 5:58Later came roads and railroads,
and they acted as potent firebreaks, -
5:58 - 6:02interrupting further the flow of fire
across this landscape. -
6:02 - 6:06And then something happened
which caused a sudden pivot -
6:06 - 6:07in our society.
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6:07 - 6:12In 1910, we had a huge wildfire.
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6:12 - 6:14It was the size
of the state of Connecticut. -
6:15 - 6:18We called it "the Big Burn."
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6:18 - 6:22It stretched from eastern Washington
to western Montana, -
6:22 - 6:26and it burned, in a few days,
three million acres, -
6:26 - 6:30devoured several towns,
and it killed 87 people. -
6:30 - 6:32Most of them were firefighters.
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6:33 - 6:37Because of the Big Burn, wildfire
became public enemy number one, -
6:37 - 6:41and this would shape the way
that we would think about wildfire -
6:41 - 6:42in our society
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6:42 - 6:44for the next hundred years.
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6:45 - 6:48Thereafter, the Forest Service,
just five years young at the time, -
6:48 - 6:53was tasked with the responsibility
of putting out all wildfires -
6:53 - 6:57on 193 million acres of public lands,
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6:57 - 6:59and they took this responsibility
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6:59 - 7:00very seriously.
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7:01 - 7:05They developed this unequaled
ability to put fires out, -
7:05 - 7:08and they put out 95 to 98 percent
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7:08 - 7:13of all fires every single year in the US.
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7:13 - 7:17And from this point on,
it was now fire suppression -
7:17 - 7:19and not wildfires
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7:19 - 7:23that would become a prime
shaper of our forests. -
7:24 - 7:27After World War II, timber harvesting
got going in the west, -
7:27 - 7:31and the logging removed
the large and the old trees. -
7:31 - 7:36These were survivors
of centuries of wildfires. -
7:36 - 7:38And the forest filled in.
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7:38 - 7:43Thin-barked, fire-sensitive
small trees filled in the gaps, -
7:43 - 7:49and our forests became dense,
with trees so layered and close together -
7:49 - 7:51that they were touching each other.
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7:51 - 7:55So fires were unintentionally blocked
by roads and railroads, -
7:55 - 7:58the cattle and sheep ate the grass,
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7:58 - 8:02then along comes fire suppression
and logging, removing the big trees, -
8:02 - 8:03and you know what happened?
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8:03 - 8:06All these factors worked together
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8:06 - 8:09to allow the forest to fill in,
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8:09 - 8:13creating what I call
the current epidemic of trees. -
8:13 - 8:15(Laughter)
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8:17 - 8:18Go figure.
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8:18 - 8:19(Laughter)
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8:19 - 8:23More trees than the landscape can support.
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8:24 - 8:28So when you compare what forests
looked like 100 years ago and today, -
8:28 - 8:31the change is actually remarkable.
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8:31 - 8:33Notice how the patchwork has filled in.
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8:33 - 8:35Dry south slopes --
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8:35 - 8:37they're now covered with trees.
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8:38 - 8:41A patchwork that was once
sculptured by mostly small -
8:41 - 8:43and sort of medium-sized fires
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8:43 - 8:44has filled in.
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8:44 - 8:46Do you see the blanket of trees?
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8:47 - 8:49After just 150 years,
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8:49 - 8:52we have a dense carpet of forest.
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8:52 - 8:53But there's more.
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8:53 - 8:56Because trees are growing
so close together, -
8:56 - 9:00and because tree species,
tree sizes and ages -
9:00 - 9:03are so similar across large areas,
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9:03 - 9:06fires not only move easily
from acre to acre, -
9:06 - 9:10but now, so do diseases
and insect outbreaks, -
9:12 - 9:15which are killing or reducing the vitality
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9:15 - 9:18of really large sections of forest now.
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9:18 - 9:21And after a century without fire,
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9:21 - 9:25dead branches and downed trees
on the forest floor, -
9:25 - 9:27they're at powder-keg levels.
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9:28 - 9:31What's more, our summers
are getting hotter -
9:31 - 9:33and they're getting drier
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9:33 - 9:35and they're getting windier.
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9:35 - 9:41And the fire season is now
40 to 80 days longer each year. -
9:41 - 9:44Because of this,
climatologists are predicting -
9:44 - 9:47that the area burned since 2000
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9:47 - 9:50will double or triple
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9:50 - 9:52in the next three decades.
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9:53 - 9:56And we're building houses
in the middle of this. -
9:56 - 9:59Two recently published studies tell us
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9:59 - 10:03that more than 60 percent
of all new housing starts are being built -
10:03 - 10:06in this flammable and dangerous mess.
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10:07 - 10:09So when we do get a fire,
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10:10 - 10:14large areas can literally go up in smoke.
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10:16 - 10:18How do you feel now
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10:20 - 10:21about the forest image
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10:22 - 10:24that I first showed you?
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10:24 - 10:26It scares the heck out of me.
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10:28 - 10:29So what do we do?
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10:30 - 10:34We need to restore
the power of the patchwork. -
10:34 - 10:37We need to put the right kind of fire
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10:37 - 10:39back into the system again.
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10:39 - 10:45It's how we can resize
the severity of many of our future fires. -
10:45 - 10:48And the silver lining is
that we have tools -
10:48 - 10:50and we have know-how to do this.
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10:50 - 10:52Let's look at some of the tools.
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10:52 - 10:57We can use prescribed burning
to intentionally thin out trees -
10:57 - 10:59and burn up dead fuels.
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11:00 - 11:04We do this to systematically
reduce them and keep them reduced. -
11:05 - 11:06And what is that going to do?
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11:06 - 11:09It's going to create already-burned
patches on the landscape -
11:09 - 11:12that will resist the flow of future fires.
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11:12 - 11:16We can combine mechanical thinning
with some of these treatments -
11:16 - 11:17where it's appropriate to do so,
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11:17 - 11:19and capture some commercial value
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11:19 - 11:22and perhaps underwrite
some of these treatments, -
11:22 - 11:25especially around urban areas.
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11:25 - 11:28And the best news of all
is that prescribed burning produces -
11:28 - 11:32so much less smoke than wildfires do.
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11:32 - 11:33It's not even close.
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11:33 - 11:34But there's a hitch:
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11:35 - 11:40prescribed burning smoke is currently
regulated under air quality rules -
11:40 - 11:42as an avoidable nuisance.
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11:43 - 11:44But wildfire smoke?
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11:44 - 11:46It simply gets a pass.
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11:48 - 11:51Makes sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
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11:51 - 11:52So you know what happens?
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11:52 - 11:55We do far too little prescribed burning,
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11:55 - 11:59and we continually eat smoke
in the summers -
11:59 - 12:01from megafires.
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12:01 - 12:04We all need to work together
to get this changed. -
12:05 - 12:07And finally, there's managed wildfires.
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12:07 - 12:09Instead of putting all the fires out,
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12:10 - 12:12we need to put some of them back to work
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12:12 - 12:15thinning forests and reducing dead fuels.
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12:16 - 12:19We can herd them around the landscape
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12:19 - 12:21when it's appropriate to do so
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12:21 - 12:25to help restore the power
of the patchwork. -
12:27 - 12:30And as you've probably figured out by now,
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12:30 - 12:33this is actually a social problem.
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12:33 - 12:36It's got ecological
and climate explanations, -
12:36 - 12:40but it's a social problem,
and it will take us humans to solve it. -
12:41 - 12:43Public support for these tools is poor.
-
12:43 - 12:47Prescribed burning and managed wildfires
are not well-supported. -
12:47 - 12:52We actually all simply want fires
to magically go away -
12:52 - 12:56and take that pesky smoke
with them, don't we? -
12:57 - 13:02But there is no future
without lots of fire and lots of smoke. -
13:02 - 13:05That option is actually not on the table.
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13:07 - 13:12Until we, the owners of public lands,
make it our high priority -
13:12 - 13:15to do something about
the current situation, -
13:16 - 13:20we're going to experience
continued losses to megafires. -
13:20 - 13:21So it's up to us.
-
13:22 - 13:24We can spread this message
to our lawmakers, -
13:24 - 13:28folks who can help us manage our fires
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13:28 - 13:30and our forests.
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13:34 - 13:36If we're unsuccessful,
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13:37 - 13:39where will you go to play
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13:40 - 13:43when your favorite places
are burned black? -
13:45 - 13:47Where will you go
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13:47 - 13:49to breathe deep
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13:50 - 13:51and slow?
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13:52 - 13:53Thank you.
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13:53 - 13:57(Applause)
- Title:
- Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and how we can stop them
- Speaker:
- Paul Hessburg
- Description:
-
Megafires, individual fires that burn more than 100,000 acres, are on the rise in the western United States -- the direct result of unintentional yet massive changes we've brought to the forests through a century of misguided management. What steps can we take to avoid further destruction? Forest ecologist Paul Hessburg confronts some tough truths about wildfires and details how we can help restore the natural balance of the landscape.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 14:11
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it | ||
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Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it |