The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder
-
0:13 - 0:16I'd like you to imagine that you live
in a really repressive country. -
0:16 - 0:19There are elections, but they're fake.
-
0:19 - 0:22The leader wins
100% of the vote each time. -
0:22 - 0:25Security forces beat up
opposition leaders with impunity, -
0:25 - 0:27and they harass everyone else.
-
0:27 - 0:31This is a country where being in this room
right now would get you on a list. -
0:32 - 0:34Now let's say you've had enough,
-
0:34 - 0:38and so have many other people
that you talk with in low whispers. -
0:38 - 0:41I'm not talking about The Hunger Games,
although that would be awesome! -
0:41 - 0:42(Laughter)
-
0:42 - 0:46Unfortunately, I'm talking
about real world conditions -
0:46 - 0:49that many people face right now.
-
0:49 - 0:52So assuming you've decided to act,
-
0:52 - 0:53what would be the best way
-
0:53 - 0:56for you to challenge the system
and create something new? -
0:58 - 1:02My own answer to this question
has changed over the past few years. -
1:02 - 1:07In 2006, I was a PhD student here
at CU Boulder, studying Political Science, -
1:07 - 1:10and my dissertation was
on how and why people use violence -
1:10 - 1:13to create political change
in their countries. -
1:13 - 1:16As for the scenario I just described,
-
1:16 - 1:20back then I bought into the idea
that power flows from the barrel of a gun, -
1:21 - 1:24and what I would have said was
that, although it was tragic, -
1:24 - 1:27it was logical in such situations
for people to use violence -
1:27 - 1:29to seek their change.
-
1:30 - 1:32But then I was invited
to an academic workshop -
1:32 - 1:35put on by the International Center
on Nonviolent Conflict. -
1:35 - 1:38They were giving a week-long primer
on nonviolent resistance -
1:38 - 1:42to try to get people like me
to teach about it in our classes. -
1:42 - 1:43My view of all of this at the time
-
1:43 - 1:46was that it was well-intentioned
but dangerously naive. -
1:47 - 1:50I mean, the readings
they sent me in advance argued -
1:50 - 1:54that the best way for people
to seek really difficult political changes -
1:54 - 1:56was through nonviolent
or civil resistance. -
1:56 - 2:00They described civil resistance
as an active form of conflict, -
2:00 - 2:04where unarmed civilians would use tactics
like protests, boycotts, demonstrations, -
2:04 - 2:07and lots of other forms
of mass non-cooperation -
2:07 - 2:09to seek change.
-
2:09 - 2:11They brought up cases like Serbia,
-
2:11 - 2:15where a nonviolent revolution
toppled Slobodan Milošević, -
2:15 - 2:17the Butcher of the Balkans,
in October 2000, -
2:17 - 2:19and the Philippines,
-
2:19 - 2:23where the People Power Movement
ousted Ferdinand Marcos in 1986. -
2:24 - 2:28At the workshop, I said stuff like,
"Well, those were probably exceptions. -
2:28 - 2:30For every successful case
you guys bring up, -
2:30 - 2:33I can think of a failed case
like Tienanmen Square. -
2:33 - 2:36I can also think of plenty of cases
where violence worked pretty well -
2:36 - 2:39like the Russian, French,
and Algerian revolutions. -
2:40 - 2:41Maybe nonviolent resistance works
-
2:41 - 2:45if you're seeking environmental reforms,
gender rights, labor rights, -
2:45 - 2:47but it can't work, generally,
-
2:47 - 2:51if you're trying to overthrow a dictator
or become a new country. -
2:51 - 2:52And it definitely can't work
-
2:52 - 2:56if the authoritarian leader
you're facing is not incompetent, -
2:56 - 2:58it's somebody who's
really brutal and ruthless." -
2:58 - 3:01So by the end of the week,
as you can imagine, I wasn't very popular. -
3:01 - 3:03(Laughter)
-
3:03 - 3:06But my soon to be co-author,
Maria Stephan, came up to me -
3:06 - 3:09and said something like,
"If you're right, why don't you prove it? -
3:09 - 3:13Are you curious enough to study this
in a serious way, empirically?" -
3:14 - 3:17Believe it or not, nobody had
really done that before systematically, -
3:17 - 3:19and although I was still skeptical,
-
3:19 - 3:21I was curious.
-
3:21 - 3:25I figured that if they were right,
and I was wrong, somebody better find out. -
3:25 - 3:27So for the next two years,
-
3:27 - 3:31I collected data on all major
nonviolent and violent campaigns -
3:31 - 3:36for the overthrow of a government
or a territorial liberation since 1900. -
3:36 - 3:38The data covered the entire world
-
3:38 - 3:40and consisted of every known case
-
3:40 - 3:43where there were
at least 1,000 observed participants; -
3:43 - 3:44this is hundreds of cases.
-
3:45 - 3:48Then I analyzed the data,
and the results blew me away. -
3:48 - 3:51From 1900 to 2006,
-
3:51 - 3:55nonviolent campaigns worldwide
were twice as likely to succeed outright -
3:55 - 3:57as violent insurgencies.
-
3:57 - 3:58And there's more.
-
3:59 - 4:03This trend has been increasing over time,
so that in the last 50 years, -
4:03 - 4:09nonviolent campaigns are becoming
increasingly successful and common, -
4:09 - 4:14whereas violent insurgencies are becoming
increasingly rare and unsuccessful. -
4:14 - 4:19This is true even in those extremely
brutal, authoritarian conditions -
4:19 - 4:22where I expected
nonviolent resistance to fail. -
4:23 - 4:27So, why is civil resistance so much
more effective than armed struggle? -
4:27 - 4:29The answer seems to lie
in people power itself. -
4:30 - 4:33Researchers used to say
that no government could survive -
4:33 - 4:37if just 5% of its population
rose up against it. -
4:37 - 4:40Our data showed that the number
may be lower than that. -
4:41 - 4:44No single campaign has failed
during that time period -
4:44 - 4:47after they had achieved
the active and sustained participation -
4:47 - 4:51of just 3.5% of the population.
-
4:51 - 4:54And lots of them succeeded
with far fewer than that. -
4:54 - 4:573.5% is nothing to sneeze at.
-
4:57 - 5:00In the U.S. today,
that's like 11 million people. -
5:00 - 5:01But get this:
-
5:01 - 5:05every single campaign
that surpassed that 3.5% -
5:05 - 5:07was a nonviolent one.
-
5:07 - 5:11In fact, the nonviolent campaigns
were on average -
5:11 - 5:14four times larger
than the average violent campaigns, -
5:14 - 5:18and they were often much more
inclusive and representative -
5:18 - 5:22in terms of gender, age,
race, political party, class, -
5:22 - 5:24and the urban-rural distinction.
-
5:24 - 5:26Civil resistance allows
-
5:26 - 5:30people of all different levels
of physical ability to participate, -
5:30 - 5:33so this can include the elderly,
people with disabilities, -
5:33 - 5:36women, children,
and anyone else who wants to. -
5:36 - 5:37If you think about it,
-
5:37 - 5:42everyone is born with a natural
physical ability to resist nonviolently. -
5:42 - 5:44Anyone here who has kids knows
-
5:44 - 5:48how hard it is to pick up a child
who doesn't want to move -
5:48 - 5:50or to feed a child
who doesn't want to eat. -
5:51 - 5:55Violent resistance, on the other hand,
is a little more physically demanding, -
5:55 - 5:58and that makes it
a little bit more exclusive. -
5:59 - 6:03In my case, when I was in college,
I was in Military Science classes -
6:03 - 6:05because I planned
to go through the ROTC program -
6:05 - 6:07and become an army officer.
-
6:07 - 6:11I really liked the rappelling,
the shooting at the range, -
6:11 - 6:14the map reading, of course,
and the uniforms. -
6:14 - 6:16But I wasn't stoked
-
6:16 - 6:19when they asked me to get up
in the wee hours of the morning -
6:19 - 6:20and run until I vomited.
-
6:20 - 6:24So I quit and chose the far less
demanding career of a professor. -
6:24 - 6:27(Laughter)
-
6:27 - 6:30Not everybody wants to take
the same chances in life, -
6:30 - 6:33and many people won't turn up
unless they expect safety in numbers. -
6:34 - 6:39The visibility of many civil resistance
tactics, like protests, allow them -
6:39 - 6:42to draw these risk-averse people
into the fray. -
6:42 - 6:45Put yourself back in that repressive
country for just a minute. -
6:45 - 6:48Let's say your trusted friend
and neighbor comes to you and says, -
6:48 - 6:50"I know you sympathize with our cause.
-
6:50 - 6:54We'll have a mass demonstration
down the street tonight at 8 o'clock. -
6:54 - 6:55I hope to see you there."
-
6:55 - 6:58I don't know about you all,
but I am not the person -
6:58 - 7:02who is going to show up
at 7:55 and see what's up. -
7:02 - 7:05I'm probably going to look
outside my window at 8:30 -
7:05 - 7:06and see what's going on.
-
7:06 - 7:10If I see six people congregated there
in the square, I'll sit this one out. -
7:10 - 7:15But if I see 6,000 and more coming
down the alleyway, I just might join in. -
7:16 - 7:21My point here is that the visibility
of civil resistance actions allows them -
7:21 - 7:24to attract more active
and diverse participation -
7:24 - 7:26from these ambivalent people,
-
7:26 - 7:28and once they become involved,
-
7:28 - 7:32it's almost guaranteed that the movement
will then have links to security forces, -
7:32 - 7:36civilian bureaucrats,
economic and business elites, -
7:36 - 7:40educational elites, state media,
religious authorities, and the like, -
7:40 - 7:43and those people start
to reevaluate their own allegiances. -
7:45 - 7:47No regime loyalists, at any country,
-
7:47 - 7:51live entirely isolated
from the population itself. -
7:51 - 7:53They have friends,
they have family members, -
7:53 - 7:54they have existing relationships
-
7:54 - 7:56that they have to live with
in the long term, -
7:57 - 7:59whether or not the leader stays or goes.
-
7:59 - 8:03In Serbia, when it became obvious
that hundreds of thousands of Serbs -
8:03 - 8:06were descending on Belgrade
to demand that Milošević leave office, -
8:06 - 8:11police officers started to disobey
the order to shoot on demonstrators. -
8:11 - 8:14When one of them was asked
why he did so, he said simply, -
8:14 - 8:16"I knew my kids would be in the crowd."
-
8:17 - 8:20Some of you are thinking,
"Is this person insane? -
8:20 - 8:24I watch the news, and I see protesters
getting shot at all the time." -
8:24 - 8:25And it's true.
-
8:25 - 8:29Sometimes, crackdowns do happen,
but even in those cases, -
8:29 - 8:33the nonviolent campaigns were
outperforming the violent ones by 2 to 1. -
8:34 - 8:38It turns out that when security forces
beat up, arrest, or even shoot -
8:38 - 8:39unarmed activists,
-
8:39 - 8:42there is indeed safety in numbers.
-
8:43 - 8:46Large, well-coordinated
campaigns can shift -
8:46 - 8:50between tactics that are concentrated,
like protests or demonstrations, -
8:50 - 8:53to tactics of dispersion,
-
8:53 - 8:56where people stay away
from places they were expected to go. -
8:56 - 9:01They do strikes, they bang
on pots and pans, they stay at home, -
9:01 - 9:05they shut off their electricity
at a coordinated time of day. -
9:05 - 9:07These tactics are much less risky,
-
9:07 - 9:11they're very hard, or at least
very costly to suppress, -
9:11 - 9:14but the movement stays just as disruptive.
-
9:15 - 9:18What happens in these countries
once the dust settles? -
9:18 - 9:21It turns out that the way you resist
matters in the long run too. -
9:22 - 9:27Most strikingly, countries
in which people wage nonviolent struggle -
9:27 - 9:31were way more likely to emerge
with democratic institutions -
9:31 - 9:34than countries
in which they wage violent struggle. -
9:34 - 9:37Those countries with nonviolent campaigns
-
9:37 - 9:41were 15% less likely
to relapse into civil war. -
9:41 - 9:43The data are clear:
-
9:43 - 9:45when people rely on civil resistance,
-
9:45 - 9:47their size grows,
-
9:47 - 9:50and when large numbers of people
remove their cooperation -
9:50 - 9:52from an oppressive system,
-
9:52 - 9:54the odds are ever in their favor.
-
9:54 - 9:56(Laughter)
-
9:56 - 10:01So, I and many others like me had ignored
-
10:01 - 10:03the millions of people worldwide
-
10:03 - 10:05who were skillfully using civil resistance
-
10:05 - 10:08in favor of studying
just things that blow up. -
10:08 - 10:12I was left with a few questions
about the way I used to think. -
10:12 - 10:16Why was it so easy and comfortable
for me to think that violence works? -
10:17 - 10:20Why did I find it acceptable to assume
-
10:20 - 10:22that violence happens
almost automatically -
10:22 - 10:25because of circumstances
or by necessity, -
10:25 - 10:28that it's the only way out
of some situations? -
10:28 - 10:32In a society that celebrates
battlefield heroes on national holidays, -
10:32 - 10:34I guess it was natural
to grow up believing -
10:34 - 10:37that violence and courage
are one and the same, -
10:37 - 10:41and that true victories cannot come
without bloodshed on both sides. -
10:42 - 10:44But the evidence I presented
here today suggests -
10:44 - 10:47that for people
serious about seeking change, -
10:47 - 10:50there are realistic alternatives.
-
10:50 - 10:52Imagine what our world
would look like now -
10:52 - 10:55if we allowed ourselves
to develop some faith in them. -
10:56 - 11:00What if our history courses emphasized
the decade of mass civil disobedience -
11:00 - 11:03that came before
the Declaration of Independence -
11:03 - 11:05rather than the war that came after?
-
11:06 - 11:10What if our social studies textbooks
emphasized Gandhi and King -
11:10 - 11:14in the first chapter
rather than as an afterthought? -
11:14 - 11:16And what if every child
left elementary school -
11:16 - 11:18knowing more about the Suffragist Movement
-
11:18 - 11:21than they did
about the Battle of Bunker Hill? -
11:21 - 11:26What if it became common knowledge
that when protest becomes too dangerous, -
11:26 - 11:30there are many nonviolent
techniques of dispersion -
11:30 - 11:33that might keep movement safe and active?
-
11:34 - 11:38So here we are, in 2013,
in Boulder, Colorado. -
11:38 - 11:39Maybe some of you are thinking,
-
11:39 - 11:41"That's great that civil resistance works.
-
11:41 - 11:43What can I do?"
-
11:43 - 11:45Encourage your children to learn more
-
11:45 - 11:47about the nonviolent legacies
of the past 200 years -
11:47 - 11:50and explore the potential of people power.
-
11:51 - 11:52Tell your elected representatives
-
11:52 - 11:57to stop perpetuating
the misguided view that violence pays -
11:57 - 12:00by supporting the first groups
in a civil uprising who take up arms. -
12:01 - 12:05Although civil resistance
cannot be exported or imported, -
12:05 - 12:08it's time for our officials to embrace
a different way of thinking; -
12:08 - 12:11that in both the short and longer term,
-
12:11 - 12:14civil resistance tends
to lead behind societies -
12:14 - 12:18in which people can live more freely
and more peaceably together. -
12:18 - 12:22Now that we know what we know
about the power of nonviolent conflict, -
12:22 - 12:25I see it as our shared responsibility
to spread the word, -
12:25 - 12:28so that future generations
don't fall for the myth -
12:28 - 12:30that violence is their only way out.
-
12:30 - 12:31Thank you.
-
12:31 - 12:32(Applause)
- Title:
- The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder
- Description:
-
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx
Between 1900-2006, campaigns of nonviolent civil resistance were twice as successful as violent campaigns. Erica will talk about her research on the impressive historical record of civil resistance in the 20th century and discuss the promise of unarmed struggle in the 21st century. She will focus on the so-called "3.5% rule" - the notion that no government can withstand a challenge of 3.5% of its population without either accommodating the movement or (in extreme cases) disintegrating. In addition to explaining why nonviolent resistance has been so effective, she will also share some lessons learned about why it sometimes fails.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 12:34
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Denise RQ approved English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Denise RQ edited English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Denise RQ edited English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Denise RQ edited English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Denise RQ edited English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Retired user commented on English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Peter van de Ven commented on English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder | |
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Peter van de Ven accepted English subtitles for The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder |
Peter van de Ven
To the Approver: Sorry, I forgot to check title and description.
Title has the wrong format and should read:
The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder
The TEDx disclaimer is missing in the description:
This talk was given at a local TEDx event, produced independently of the TED Conferences.
Retired user
Hi Peter, thanks for doing the review. I will check the comparison and do my best to improve future works.