Intro to Bond Markets

正如我们看过的
大多数需要贷款的人

他们都会问银行借钱

对于一家知名企业来说
例如星巴克

他们可以通过另一种类型的

金融中介来获得贷款

债券市场

本质上债券就是IOU

它记录着谁欠了多少钱

以及还款限期

像股票一样
债券可以在市场上进行交易

对于一家知名企业
例如星巴克

投资者对该等公司
已经认识足够

他们敢于绕过一些中介机构如银行

并直接借钱给那些企业

对于拥有良好信誉的大企业来说

这意味着他们可以更好的条件

从债券市场借钱

比传统的银行贷款更好

例如，多年来星巴克

曾经发行十亿美元以上的公司债券

以资助他们的扩张计划

跟股票不一样，如果你买下
星巴克新发行的债券

你并不拥有星巴克任何一部分

你只是给星巴克借钱

作为交换条件，他们承诺
在特定时间

给你支付特定的金额

另外一些债券会定期分期还款

称为息票支付
这是根据预先安排的时间表还款

通过发行债券
一家企业能夠筹集资金

并投入大量资金

然后他们可以在很长的时间内

慢慢偿还这笔债务
当这些投资提供回报后

企业不是唯一的机构

在债券市场筹集资金

政府也会这样做

在2016年，美国政府欠下公众

近14万亿美元
以担保债券的形式安排

因为政府的规模这么庞大

当它举债的时候

这会影响整个储蓄与借贷市场

我们回到可贷资金的供求关系

供求关系

我们会使用这些数字作说明

这是需求曲线
显示借贷需求

现在想像一下政府
决定借1000亿美元

这样会使可贷资金需求曲线

向上向右移动

并使均衡利率由7%上升至9%

较高的利率

that means that the quantity
of savings supplied will increase,

in this case,
from $200 to $250 billion.

Now remember that
if savings increases by $50 billion,

that means that private consumption
is falling by $50 billion.

If we're saving more,
that means we're consuming less.

And because borrowing
has become more expensive

due to the higher interest rate,
private investment will also fall.

At a 9% interest rate,

we can see that the private demand
for loanable funds is $150 billion,

$50 billion less than it was
at an interest rate of 7%.

We call these two effects
“crowding out”.

When the government
borrows $100 billion,

it crowds out private consumption
and private investment.

In this case, it crowds out
$50 billion of private consumption

and also $50 billion
of private investment.

Bonds aren't as risky as stocks

because the bondholders
must be paid

before any profits
are distributed to shareholders.

But bonds do have risk,

namely the risk
that when the payments come due,

the borrower won't be able to pay.

That's called the default risk.

If investors think that a firm
issuing a bond

has a significant default risk,
they'll demand

a higher interest rate
to lend money.

Bonds are rated by agencies,
such as the S&P.

The S&P ratings go from AAA,
which are the safest bonds,

all the way down to D,
and anything lower than a BBB-,

those are sometimes called
“junk bonds.”

If you're curious,
Starbucks gets an A-.

Lending money to Starbucks --
it's pretty safe.

But you never know
what might happen

if all those pod people start making
a lot more coffee at home.

Now, the rating agencies
aren't perfect.

That became all too obvious
during the recent financial crisis.

However, generally speaking,

you'll find that
better-rated bonds --

they pay lower interest rates.

And lower-rated, riskier bonds --
they pay higher interest rates.

The state of Illinois has
the lowest bond rating

of any state government
in the United States, an A-.

And it has to pay
significantly more to borrow money

than does Virginia, which has
the highest rating, a AAA.

Another factor that determines
the interest rate on a bond

is whether the borrower
can put up collateral,

an asset that helps
to guarantee the loan.

If you want to borrow money
to buy a house,

you'll typically
get a lower interest rate

than if you want to borrow money
to buy a vacation.

How come?
It's the same principle.

The mortgage loan
is less risky for the bank

than the vacation loan

because if you default,
the bank can repossess your house.

The house is collateral.

But once you've been to Maui,

the bank can't repossess
your vacation.

So it's cheaper to borrow money
to buy a house

than to go on vacation.

Okay, we've covered banks,
we've covered stocks,

we've covered bonds…

But actually, there's
many other financial intermediaries

that we could talk about,
including hedge funds,

venture capital, mortgages,
and a lot more.

What are you curious about?
Let us know.

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