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Choice, happiness and spaghetti sauce

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    I think I was supposed to talk about my new book,
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    which is called "Blink," and it's about snap judgments and first impressions.
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    And it comes out in January, and I hope you all buy it in triplicate.
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    But I was thinking about this,
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    and I realized that although my new book makes me happy,
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    and I think would make my mother happy,
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    it's not really about happiness.
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    So I decided instead, I would talk about someone who
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    I think has done as much to make Americans happy
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    as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years,
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    a man who is a great personal hero of mine:
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    someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz,
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    who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce.
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    Howard's about this high, and he's round,
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    and he's in his 60s, and he has big huge glasses
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    and thinning grey hair, and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality,
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    and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera,
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    and he's a great aficionado of medieval history.
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    And by profession, he's a psychophysicist.
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    Now, I should tell you that I have no idea what psychophysics is,
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    although at some point in my life, I dated a girl for two years who was getting
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    her doctorate in psychophysics.
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    Which should tell you something about that relationship. (Laughter)
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    As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring things.
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    And Howard is very interested in measuring things.
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    And he graduated with his doctorate from Harvard,
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    and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York.
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    And one of his first clients was -- this is many years ago, back in the early '70s
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    -- one of his first clients was Pepsi.
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    And Pepsi came to Howard and they said,
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    "You know, there's this new thing called aspartame,
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    and we would like to make Diet Pepsi.
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    We'd like you to figure out how much aspartame we should put in
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    each can of Diet Pepsi, in order to have the perfect drink." Right?
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    Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer,
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    and that's what Howard thought. Because Pepsi told him,
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    "Look, we're working with a band between eight and 12 percent.
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    Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough;
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    anything above 12 percent sweetness is too sweet.
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    We want to know: what's the sweet spot between eight and 12?"
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    Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it's very simple.
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    What we do is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi,
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    at every degree of sweetness -- eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,
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    all the way up to 12 -- and we try this out with thousands of people,
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    and we plot the results on a curve,
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    and we take the most popular concentration. Right? Really simple.
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    Howard does the experiment, and he gets the data back, and he plots it on a curve,
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    and all of a sudden he realizes it's not a nice bell curve.
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    In fact, the data doesn't make any sense.
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    It's a mess. It's all over the place.
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    Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such,
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    are not dismayed when the data comes back a mess.
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    They think, well, you know, figuring out what people think about cola's not that easy.
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    You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along the way.
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    You know, let's just make an educated guess,
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    and they simply point and they go for 10 percent, right in the middle.
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    Howard is not so easily placated.
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    Howard is a man of a certain degree of intellectual standards.
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    And this was not good enough for him,
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    and this question bedeviled him for years.
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    And he would think it through and say, what was wrong?
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    Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?
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    And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains,
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    about to go trying to dream up some work for Nescafe.
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    And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him.
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    And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data,
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    they were asking the wrong question.
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    They were looking for the perfect Pepsi,
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    and they should have been looking for the perfect Pepsis. Trust me.
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    This was an enormous revelation.
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    This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs in all of food science.
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    And Howard immediately went on the road,
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    and he would go to conferences around the country,
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    and he would stand up and he would say,
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    "You had been looking for the perfect Pepsi. You're wrong.
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    You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis."
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    And people would look at him with a blank look, and they would say,
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    "What are you talking about? This is craziness."
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    And they would say, you know, "Move! Next!"
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    Tried to get business, nobody would hire him -- he was obsessed, though,
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    and he talked about it and talked about it and talked about it.
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    Howard loves the Yiddish expression
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    "To a worm in horseradish, the world is horseradish."
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    This was his horseradish. (Laughter) He was obsessed with it!
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    And finally, he had a breakthrough. Vlasic Pickles came to him,
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    and they said, "Mr. Moskowitz -- Doctor Moskowitz --
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    we want to make the perfect pickle." And he said,
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    "There is no perfect pickle; there are only perfect pickles."
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    And he came back to them and he said, "You don't just need to improve your regular;
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    you need to create zesty."
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    And that's where we got zesty pickles.
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    Then the next person came to him, and that was Campbell's Soup.
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    And this was even more important. In fact,
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    Campbell's Soup is where Howard made his reputation.
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    Campbell's made Prego, and Prego, in the early '80s, was struggling next to Ragu,
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    which was the dominant spaghetti sauce of the '70s and '80s.
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    Now in the industry -- I don't know whether you care about this,
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    or how much time I have to go into this.
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    But it was, technically speaking -- this is an aside --
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    Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragu.
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    The quality of the tomato paste is much better; the spice mix is far superior;
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    it adheres to the pasta in a much more pleasing way. In fact,
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    they would do the famous bowl test back in the '70s with Ragu and Prego.
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    You'd have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right?
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    And the Ragu would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top.
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    That's called "adherence."
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    And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence,
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    and the quality of their tomato paste, Prego was struggling.
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    So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us.
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    And Howard looked at their product line, and he said,
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    what you have is a dead tomato society.
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    So he said, this is what I want to do.
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    And he got together with the Campbell's soup kitchen,
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    and he made 45 varieties of spaghetti sauce. And he varied them
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    according to every conceivable way that you can vary tomato sauce:
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    by sweetness, by level of garlic, by tartness, by sourness, by tomatoey-ness,
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    by visible solids -- my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business. (Laughter)
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    Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce, he varied spaghetti sauce.
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    And then he took this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces, and he went on the road.
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    He went to New York; he went to Chicago; he went to Jacksonville;
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    he went to Los Angeles. And he brought in people by the truckload. Into big halls.
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    And he sat them down for two hours, and he gave them,
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    over the course of that two hours, ten bowls.
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    Ten small bowls of pasta, with a different spaghetti sauce on each one.
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    And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to 100,
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    how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was.
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    At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months,
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    he had a mountain of data
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    about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce.
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    And then he analyzed the data.
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    Now, did he look for the most popular brand variety of spaghetti sauce? No!
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    Howard doesn't believe that there is such a thing.
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    Instead, he looked at the data, and he said,
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    let's see if we can group all these different data points into clusters.
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    Let's see if they congregate around certain ideas.
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    And sure enough, if you sit down, and you analyze all this data on spaghetti sauce,
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    you realize that all Americans fall into one of three groups.
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    There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain;
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    there are people who like their spaghetti sauce spicy;
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    and there are people who like it extra chunky.
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    And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant,
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    because at the time, in the early 1980s,
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    if you went to a supermarket,
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    you would not find extra-chunky spaghetti sauce.
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    And Prego turned to Howard, and they said,
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    "You telling me that one third of Americans crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce
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    and yet no one is servicing their needs?" And he said yes!
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    (Laughter) And Prego then went back,
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    and completely reformulated their spaghetti sauce,
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    and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely
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    took over the spaghetti sauce business in this country.
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    And over the next 10 years, they made 600 million dollars
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    off their line of extra-chunky sauces.
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    And everyone else in the industry looked at what Howard had done, and they said,
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    "Oh my god! We've been thinking all wrong!"
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    And that's when you started to get seven different kinds of vinegar,
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    and 14 different kinds of mustard, and 71 different kinds of olive oil --
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    and then eventually even Ragu hired Howard,
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    and Howard did the exact same thing for Ragu that he did for Prego.
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    And today, if you go to the supermarket, a really good one,
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    and you look at how many Ragus there are --
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    do you know how many they are? 36!
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    In six varieties: Cheese, Light, Robusto,
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    Rich & Hearty, Old World Traditional, Extra-Chunky Garden. (Laughter)
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    That's Howard's doing. That is Howard's gift to the American people.
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    Now why is that important?
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    It is, in fact, enormously important. I'll explain to you why.
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    What Howard did is he fundamentally changed the way the food industry thinks
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    about making you happy.
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    Assumption number one in the food industry used to be
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    that the way to find out what people want to eat --
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    what will make people happy -- is to ask them.
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    And for years and years and years and years, Ragu and Prego would have
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    focus groups, and they would sit all you people down, and they would say,
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    "What do you want in a spaghetti sauce? Tell us what you want in a spaghetti sauce."
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    And for all those years -- 20, 30 years --
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    through all those focus group sessions,
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    no one ever said they wanted extra-chunky.
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    Even though at least a third of them, deep in their hearts, actually did.
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    (Laughter)
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    People don't know what they want! Right?
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    As Howard loves to say, "The mind knows not what the tongue wants."
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    It's a mystery!
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    And a critically important step in understanding our own desires
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    and tastes is to realize that we cannot always explain what we want deep down.
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    If I asked all of you, for example, in this room, what you want in a coffee,
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    you know what you'd say? Every one of you would say, "I want a dark, rich, hearty roast."
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    It's what people always say when you ask them what they want in a coffee.
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    What do you like? Dark, rich, hearty roast!
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    What percentage of you actually like a dark, rich, hearty roast?
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    According to Howard, somewhere between 25 and 27 percent of you.
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    Most of you like milky, weak coffee.
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    But you will never, ever say to someone who asks you what you want
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    that "I want a milky, weak coffee." (Laughter)
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    So that's number one thing that Howard did.
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    Number two thing that Howard did is he made us realize --
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    it's another very critical point --
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    he made us realize in the importance of what he likes to call "horizontal segmentation."
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    Why is this critical? It's critical because
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    this is the way the food industry thought before Howard. Right?
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    What were they obsessed with in the early '80s? They were obsessed with mustard.
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    In particular, they were obsessed with the story of Grey Poupon. Right?
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    Used to be, there were two mustards. French's and Gulden's.
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    What were they? Yellow mustard. What's in yellow mustard?
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    Yellow mustard seeds, turmeric, and paprika. That was mustard.
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    Grey Poupon came along, with a Dijon. Right?
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    Much more volatile brown mustard seed, some white wine, a nose hit,
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    much more delicate aromatics. And what do they do?
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    They put it in a little tiny glass jar, with a wonderful enameled label on it,
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    made it look French, even though it's made in Oxnard, California.
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    And instead of charging a dollar-fifty for the eight-ounce bottle,
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    the way that French's and Gulden's did, they decided to charge four dollars.
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    And then they had those ads, right? With the guy in the Rolls Royce,
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    and he's eating the Grey Poupon. The other Rolls Royce pulls up,
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    and he says, do you have any Grey Poupon?
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    And the whole thing, after they did that, Grey Poupon takes off!
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    Takes over the mustard business!
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    And everyone's take-home lesson from that was
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    that the way to get to make people happy
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    is to give them something that is more expensive, something to aspire to. Right?
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    It's to make them turn their back on what they think they like now,
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    and reach out for something higher up the mustard hierarchy.
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    A better mustard! A more expensive mustard!
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    A mustard of more sophistication and culture and meaning.
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    And Howard looked to that and said, that's wrong!
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    Mustard does not exist on a hierarchy.
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    Mustard exists, just like tomato sauce, on a horizontal plane.
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    There is no good mustard or bad mustard.
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    There is no perfect mustard or imperfect mustard.
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    There are only different kinds of mustards that suit different kinds of people.
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    He fundamentally democratized the way we think about taste.
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    And for that, as well, we owe Howard Moskowitz a huge vote of thanks.
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    Third thing that Howard did, and perhaps the most important,
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    is Howard confronted the notion of the Platonic dish. (Laughter)
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    What do I mean by that?
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    For the longest time in the food industry,
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    there was a sense that there was one way, a perfect way, to make a dish.
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    You go to Chez Panisse, they give you the red-tail sashimi
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    with roasted pumpkin seeds in a something something reduction.
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    They don't give you five options on the reduction, right?
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    They don't say, do you want the extra-chunky reduction, or do you want the -- no!
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    You just get the reduction. Why? Because the chef at Chez Panisse
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    has a Platonic notion about red-tail sashimi.
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    This is the way it ought to be.
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    And she serves it that way time and time again,
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    and if you quarrel with her, she will say,
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    "You know what? You're wrong! This is the best way it ought to be in this restaurant."
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    Now that same idea fueled the commercial food industry as well.
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    They had a notion, a Platonic notion, of what tomato sauce was.
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    And where did that come from? It came from Italy.
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    Italian tomato sauce is what? It's blended; it's thin.
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    The culture of tomato sauce was thin.
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    When we talked about authentic tomato sauce in the 1970s,
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    we talked about Italian tomato sauce. We talked about the earliest ragus,
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    which had no visible solids, right?
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    Which were thin, and you just put a little bit over it
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    and it sunk down to the bottom of the pasta.
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    That's what it was. And why were we attached to that?
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    Because we thought that what it took to make people happy
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    was to provide them with the most culturally authentic tomato sauce, A;
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    and B, we thought that if we gave them the culturally authentic tomato sauce,
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    then they would embrace it.
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    And that's what would please the maximum number of people.
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    And the reason we thought that -- in other words,
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    people in the cooking world were looking for cooking universals.
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    They were looking for one way to treat all of us.
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    And it's good reason for them to be obsessed with the idea of universals,
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    because all of science, through the 19th century and much of the 20th,
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    was obsessed with universals.
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    Psychologists, medical scientists, economists were all interested in finding out
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    the rules that govern the way all of us behave.
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    But that changed, right?
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    What is the great revolution in science of the last 10, 15 years?
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    It is the movement from the search for universals to the understanding of variability.
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    Now in medical science, we don't want to know how necessarily --
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    just how cancer works, we want to know how your cancer is different from my cancer.
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    I guess my cancer different from your cancer.
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    Genetics has opened the door to the study of human variability.
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    What Howard Moskowitz was doing was saying, this same revolution
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    needs to happen in the world of tomato sauce.
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    And for that, we owe him a great vote of thanks.
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    I'll give you one last illustration of variability, and that is -- oh, I'm sorry.
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    Howard not only believed that, but he took it a second step,
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    which was to say that when we pursue universal principles in food,
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    we aren't just making an error; we are actually doing ourselves a massive disservice.
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    And the example he used was coffee.
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    And coffee is something he did a lot of work with, with Nescafe.
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    If I were to ask all of you to try and come up with a brand of coffee
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    -- a type of coffee, a brew -- that made all of you happy,
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    and then I asked you to rate that coffee,
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    the average score in this room for coffee would be about 60 on a scale of 0 to 100.
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    If, however, you allowed me to break you into coffee clusters,
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    maybe three or four coffee clusters,
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    and I could make coffee just for each of those individual clusters,
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    your scores would go from 60 to 75 or 78.
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    The difference between coffee at 60 and coffee at 78
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    is a difference between coffee that makes you wince,
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    and coffee that makes you deliriously happy.
  • 17:00 - 17:04
    That is the final, and I think most beautiful lesson, of Howard Moskowitz:
  • 17:04 - 17:08
    that in embracing the diversity of human beings,
  • 17:08 - 17:11
    we will find a surer way to true happiness.
  • 17:11 - 17:13
    Thank you.
Title:
Choice, happiness and spaghetti sauce
Speaker:
Malcolm Gladwell
Description:

Tipping Point author Malcolm Gladwell gets inside the food industry's pursuit of the perfect spaghetti sauce -- and makes a larger argument about the nature of choice and happiness.

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Video Language:
English
Team:
closed TED
Project:
TEDTalks
Duration:
17:13

English subtitles

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